S&P+ 2016 win probabilities by game
As Bill Connelly continues to power through his Big 10 previews on SB Nation, we can slowly but surely fill out Michigan's projected win probabilities by game, and in turn our total wins projection. The only game that hasn't been released so far is OSU, which based on comparable opponents will probably be close to a coin flip. By using the very complicated Michigan=1-X, here's what the schedule looks like:
Opponent | Win Probability |
Hawaii | 98% |
UCF | 96% |
Colorado | 93% |
Penn State | 75% |
Wisconsin | 80% |
@ Rutgers | 86% |
Illinois | 90% |
@ MSU | 55% |
Maryland | 87% |
@ Iowa | 67% |
Indiana | 86% |
@ OSU | 45-55% |
If you give the OSU game 0.5 expected wins, that gets us to an expected win total of 9.63 on the year. Sweep the first seven games leading up to MSU and that number bumps up to 10.45, all else equal.
I just have a very strong hunch we'll take them in E.L. this year. I had the same feeling going into Happy Valley in 1997. The win will be fueled by our defense, which has a chance to be special this year.
Just gotta beat MSU and OSU at their respective places, never experienced that feeling as a student before.
Hopefully, this year.
That beating OSU and MSU would be good?
+1, insightful
/we shouldn't even be having...
So that means we can lose all of the other games and be in great shape for a playoff bid?
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Opponent Win Probability
Hawaii 100%
UCF 100%
Colorado 100%
Penn State 100%
Wisconsin 100%
@ Rutgers 1000%
Illinois 100%
@ MSU 100%
Maryland 100%
@ Iowa 100%
Indiana 100%
@ OSU 100%
Fixed it for you.
What does this Bill Connelly guy know anyway?
Thanks. I spent several exhausting seconds devising an exhaustive, fool-proof formula before rounding down to 100%. Except for Rutgers. They got rounded down to 1000%.
Rutgers still might be low.
There is such a difference in probability between @MSU and @Iowa. MSU lost more and the two teams were comparable last year. I would put the win probability at least equivalent between the two.
The S&P+ rankings never looked favorably upon Iowa last year, as it controls for luck and Iowa was statistically one of the luckiest teams in the country. According to his numbers, they were the 47th best team in the country last season, while Michigan was 6th.
It controls for them being fucking Iowa.
It's actually a dummy variable in the S&P+ formula.
or do others find it weird that the win probability for @Rutgers is just 11% higher than for the Penn State game and 6% higher than for the Wisconsin game? I mean Rutgers is very bad.
It's a rivalry game anything can happen
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Underrated comment
not according to rutger fans. remember they have a coach that was at osu.they keep saying he will bring rutgers back, from where? i didnt realize they had ever been anywhere.
Remember they are the birthplace of college football, so at one time they were at least in the top two programs in the country, so maybe back to there?
Road game. That matters a lot.
Road vs home is a six point swing which is probably a 20-25% win prob difference when the baseline is within a three touchdown spread.
model shouldn't home team bump be very small when a top 10 team plays at a really bad team's stadium?
Home field advantage for Iowa has to be worth a a lot more points than for a very bad team like Rutgers.
Probably has to do with it being a road night game. And, you know, when you face a big time rival like Rutgers in their hostile environment of a stadium, that won't be filled with at least 50% Michigan fans, anything can happen.
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I was told there would be no math.
You work at a bank, all you do is math.
What did I ever do to you
Note to self: Don't use the bank Hatter works at.
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Keep your money under the mattress.
Hawaii should be higher, don't they play in Australia or something like that the week before?
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Higher than 98%?
When Hawai'i finishes their 2016 football season they will have flown the equivalent of nearly twice around the world.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hawaiis-football-team-will-fly-the-equival…
We will beat all 3 by more than 35 points.
With hard-hitting analysis like this, why do they even play the games?
Win probabilities are merely an analog to the more traditionally applied point spread. As was referenced in the Big Ten 2016 Preseason Total Win Probabilities diary posted last week in regard to point spreads:
"The standard deviation ... is 15.5 points. That means that if a game shows a spread for your favorite team of -3 points, the outcome could be with high confidence within plus or minus 2 standard deviations of the point estimate, which is -3 ± 31 points in this case. So your favorite team could win by 34 points, or lose by 28!"
That, dear Poster, is why they play the games.
To put it in other words, if you bet on 1000 games between any two evenly matched teams (i.e. equal 50% win probabilities), 320 games would have more than a two touchdown difference; and 60 games, more than a four touchdown difference.
For some contrast, here's how Massey estimates the schedule as of, well, the preseason (their formula weights recent performance too, as I recall):
Hawaii - 99%
UCF - 99%
Colorado - 93%
Penn State - 80%
Wisconsin - 66%
at Rutgers - 85%
Illinois - 88%
at Michigan State - 48%
Maryland - 87%
ay Iowa - 59%
Indiana - 83%
at Ohio State - 28%
I honestly think that's more accurate. The other was too low vs crappy teams and too high vs better teams
I see a mistake. MSU should read 100%.
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yesterday on Facebook the BTN used the Spartan punt block for victory to count down 38 days till games start...
to which I responded:Years from now they will be playing this clip repeating "the last time MSU beat michigan was..." it will take time for the Sparties to admit it but that was the apex. So I say to you, my spartan friends, enjoy and watch the clip ad nauseam because there will fewer and fewer highlights as the years role on. And michigan will not lose to michigan state in the next five years.
Anything can happen in a rivalry game.
@ Rutgers | 86% |
Illinois | 90% |