kmedved

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Date Title Body
2 weeks 6 days ago Averaging

For all these analyses, I'm always curious to know whether the quality of the results would be improved by averaging ESPN/Scout/Rivals. In a lot of other fields, that's obviously invaluable, and my suspicion is it would be here as well.

Any thoughts?
3 weeks 2 days ago It's not a different ranking system

It's ranking different things. UM is 13 on their list overall, with the undergraduate part of the school ranking 28th nationally. The implication (and the correct one) is that UM has especially strong graduate programs, which boost it to 13th overall.

The disparity between the 13th and the 28th rankings is no more surprising than UM ranking 1st in recruiting rankings right now, but finishing outside the top 10 in the polls. They're measuring different things.
7 weeks 6 hours ago This might not b the case

They might just draft fewer busts, and more of the NBA's total revenue would go to established veterans rather than speculative bets on 19 year olds.

Not that that's a good idea in and of itself, but in terms of the number of dollars going towards unproductive players, it could help.
8 weeks 9 hours ago Luck's a bad word for it

The term that should be used is "not repeatable", which isn't quite the same thing. And even more specifically, it's "not repeatable at the D1 level."

If you have Michigan play against a high school team, I'd very much so expect UM to recover 70%+ of fumbles. And if you had UM play against an NFL team, I'd expect the ratio to be reversed. It's a skill. I don't even think Brian disagrees with that. However, it's a skill everyone who plays at the D1 level is exceptionally good at, so there's a bit of a standstill. 

If every D1 football team played 162 games a year, you wouldn't need to regress turnover rate quite so strongly. However, since turnovers are rare, and everyone UM plays against is pretty good at recovering them, it's hard to tell much from which way 30 or so bounces went.
9 weeks 1 day ago Decommits

As we know, the staff tells guys not to commit if they still want to take an official visit to another school. This should generally help with decommits, insofar as it helps Deontay Greenberry to Houston type situations from developing.

It doesn't completely eliminate decommits obviously, and probably slows down getting commits in the first place (Ty Isaac wanting to visit USC first for instance), but it does mean once they're in the class, they're probably not likelyto leave.
11 weeks 2 days ago There's never been a player I've more wanted to see tape on

That said, Jared Gaither is 6'9", so given some random inaccuracy in high school measurement, Orlando Brown might be "only" 6'9" as well. Ryan Mallett's height varied by a couple inches here and there too.
11 weeks 2 days ago Rivals ratings

You're using Rivals ratings right? Have you tried matching up their numeric ratings to likelihood of being drafted? I'm curious if that would help give a more granular result?

I also think it's also interesting to compare this to All-American rankings. While five star players are just under five times more likely to get drafted than three star players per your analysis, Dr. Saturday found that five stars were more than eleven times more likely to make an All-American team than three stars. That's a pretty significant gap. I can speculate about a couple reasons for why, but the most obvious is a preference for placing a 5 star onto such a team over a 3 star (while the draft is more of an obvious meritocracy).

 
12 weeks 1 day ago I've heard it before

But it's still stunning to see how big March Madness is. Those 67 games generate more ad revenue than the 750 or so college football games do?
12 weeks 3 days ago Patriots

1. Need a center. Prefer smart players over physical beasts. David Molk to the rescue.

2. Need a wide receiver. Love 3 cone drill performers. Junior Hemingway had the best 3 cone result.

Brady and Zoltan get a couple of Michigan teammates. Win a Super Bowl. Done.
13 weeks 9 hours ago This is basically accurate

Other than Andre Smith, none of Saban's Alabama O-Linemen are playing significant roles even for bottom feeders in the NFL. (Per Pro-Football-Reference's draft checker).

And even Smith is generally considered to be a bust - just a guy who has a job because of the team he plays for.
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