spoiler alert: i linked this
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|2 years 23 weeks ago||Scheme?||
Gardner played the last four games last year and had just 1 int per game. M scored 35, 38, 42, and 21 points against Minn, NW, Iowa, ohio.
This year, it was 9 ints in the first 4 games. Since then just 3 in 6 games. The first 3 of those games the offense was still humming with 42, 40, and 63 points.
The last three games the offense has cratered. I don't think the talent level has changed or the level of competition.
It just appears we are being outcoached.
|2 years 24 weeks ago||Yikes||
I messed up my cut and paste. Thanks, I'll make the correction.
|2 years 24 weeks ago||Turnovers||
A lot has to do with turnovers. Akron was -2 TOM, UConn was -3 TOM
2012: ND was -4 TOM, ohio was -2 TOM (both of those games were lost primarily due to TOs).
2011: Iowa was -2 TOM (another loss due to TOs). ND was +2 TOM (yeah, a win due to TOs).
|2 years 27 weeks ago||Haitian Creole||
"I, Fitzgerald Toussaint am half African American and Haitian. My mother is African American and my father is Haitian born and raised there.
|2 years 27 weeks ago||Yikes||
How did a POST (i.e. written words -- not spoken words) result in a discussion on how something is pronounced??
I am trying to figure out if my faith in the audacity of the MGoBlog community has been restored or my sense of doom about humanity in general has been magnified.
|2 years 27 weeks ago||Probability?||
With Gardner having a 7% interception percentage, is it more likely to throw an interception or have Gibbons miss a field goal?
Is there a breakeven distance?
|2 years 29 weeks ago||Of Course||
Here are the other B1G TOMs/game:
Nebraska = +1.0
Notice anything? After looking at TOs for the last 5 years, I have concluded that TOs are more a reflection of a team's overall performance rather than a determining factor of a team's performance (good teams have better TOMs, poor teams have worse TOMs).
|2 years 31 weeks ago||Watch This Space||
I am fully aware that MGoBrian and others have stated their e-pinion that turnovers are random. Not buying it.
I challenge anyone to ask/tell Brady Hoke that he is wasting his time talking about turnovers (both to the media and his team). Or ask him why he is wasting so much time in practices with drills that are meant to minimize turnovers.
I challenge anyone who watches Devin Gardner run with the ball to rationally believe that if he fumbles it is just "a random event or just bad luck".
Anyone who is counting on regression to the mean to solve Michigan's turnover problem is going to be very, very disappointed. There are solutions -- but just ignoring the problem and hoping it will all even out, is not one of the solutions.
Since this is the bye week, it is as good as time as any to revisit this question in more detail with some data.
Watch this space next Monday.
|2 years 31 weeks ago||Yup||
I posted that in last week's diary. But, to refresh your memory:
Quarterbacks!: In 2011, quarterbacks were responsible for 19 of 21 turnovers. In 2012, quarterbacks were responsible for 23 of 25 turnovers. So far in 2013, quarterbacks are responsible for 8 of 8 turnovers.
After Saturday, make that 11 of 12 turnovers this year.
|2 years 32 weeks ago||I Agree||
During the game, I also thought the turnovers were more of an impact. In fact, I was shocked when the calculations came out the way they did.
I think the Mathlete did an analysis last year (perhaps the year before?) that indicated the change in momentum due to turnovers was not very significant. But, it seemed like the TOs hurt M a lot more than the EP indicates.
|2 years 33 weeks ago||Gallon?||
Am I missing something or are the stats for Gallon missing on the +/- chart?
|2 years 33 weeks ago||Nada||
Nope, I am not a sudent and they did not ask for any ID. Just signed a sheet at the info desk to get a parking pass.
|2 years 33 weeks ago||Sorry||
Did not go to Bo's. The front exhibit is 5 display tables and the continuation in the back is 4 cabinets on the wall.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Next Column||
In the chart the first column (FMB) shows all fumbles by player and the second column indicates if the fumble was lost (FL).
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Ooops||
Thanks for the catch. I'll fix the WMU goof.
|3 years 23 weeks ago||My Bad||
The data is in the table but I forgot to highlight it in maize. Ooops.
Thanks for the catch.
|3 years 24 weeks ago||This Year Has Been The Exception||
Most of the computer ranking systems do NOT even use their own data to predict games on a weekly basis. So, FEI is one of the few systems available.
FEI has a very good track record at predictions in general and for M specifically. But, this year has certainly been an exception. I will ask Fremeau if he has an explanation for this.
|3 years 25 weeks ago||Minor Correction||
S&P+ is not a Fremeau stat.
FEI is the Fremeau stat and is possession based.
S&P+ is a Bill Connelly stat and is play based.
NCAA F/+ is a combined rating.
Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.
|3 years 25 weeks ago||Big Bounce||
I just find it hard to beieve a ball would bounce 5 feet into the air if a player was holding on to it and the ball did not hit the ground!
And, if the catch had not been secured when the ball hit the ground, it was immediately an incomplete pass.
|3 years 26 weeks ago||Yup||
I posed the question to Fremeau and he replied that he includes a fake punt as just another offensive play.
Kind of like going for it on 4th down. If you don't make it, it is not considered a TO.
This is where the "official" stats are really not reflecting what actually happened in the game.
|3 years 26 weeks ago||Raw Scores||
For FEI, the GE value represents the "raw scores" before adjustments for opponents.
M is ranked #23 in GE with an SoS of 9
Nebraska is #53 in GE with an SoS of 46
MSU is #47 in GE with an SoS of 38
So, yeah, I am totally confused with the FEI rankings
|3 years 26 weeks ago||Weird stats||
Yeah, I agree. I think the fake punt ends up as just another play in the official stats. Because the FEI folks actually gave M the advantage in Special Teams (by a whopping 5.2 points!) I assume they do not even include this as a special teams play.
|3 years 26 weeks ago||Not Looking Good||
I doubt that M will get close to my predicted TOM for the year. But, TOs tend to happen in very erratic fashion (none for a few games, then one game with a bunch, etc.) so it may happen.
I'm not holding my breath.
|3 years 27 weeks ago||Your Wish Is My Command||
According to the FEI folks:
"Half of all teams finished within 10 ranking spots of their preseason FEI projection last year. 26 percent finished within five ranking spots. 20 percent finished within two ranking spots."
"the correlation of FEI projections to FEI final ratings at the end of the year is .785."
BUT, they also say,
"Projecting team ratings and game outcomes for 124 teams is relatively easy at the macro level. For the most part, the top teams consistently dominate college football and are easy to identify through the projection factors"
M was ranked #23 in the FEI preseason with 8 FBS wins projected.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||Thanks||
The link to BCFToys should be fixed. Thanks.
The trend in defense (both FEI and National Rankings) is very encouraging.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||Turnovers||
Purdue was +3 in turnovers against Marshall with two picks being returned for TDs.
The folks at FEI calculated a 10 point loss by Purdue against Marshall without the TOs.
|3 years 30 weeks ago||Can't Lose||
I guarantee we will not lose this Saturday!!!
|3 years 30 weeks ago||You Sir Are Correct!||
You are absolutely correct. TOs are not (and never have been) evenly distributed.
Last year, M had 2 games with zero TOs, 5 games with 1 TO, 2 games with 2 TOs, 3 games with 3 TOs, and 1 game with 4 TOs.
In order by game: 0 3 1 4 0 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 1
Also, NOT random (I too just can't help myself.....)
|3 years 30 weeks ago||Absolutely!||
Yes, of course. But I don't have any explanation of why Denard's interception % would improve so dramatically during the last 9 games of last year. Just hope it repeats again this year.
|3 years 31 weeks ago||Comparable Stats||
Uh, let's look at comparable stats:
After 4 games in 2011, DRob had a 8.33% interception rate (ints/pass attempt) and improved dramatically over the last 9 games with a 4.72 int%.
After 4 games this year, DRob has a 8.0% int%. Actually better than last year.