Why Michigan will win under the lights
Notre Dame invades the Big House in a couple weeks and most experts as well as some fans are prematurely marking this up as a win for Notre Dame. The last three years have been terrible for Michigan football , possibly the worst in school history. In each of those 3 years Notre Dame has been favored to win , because of a late season collapse by the Wolverine and a supposed surge by the Irish. Things have'nt really worked out the way the "experts" have called it, with the Irish going 1-2 against 3 of the worst teams in Michigan history.
What makes people so sure Notre Dame will beat Michigan this year? Notre Dame finished the season by slipping by USC and stomping Miami (yea that Miami), but those are'nt the games we need to be looking at. When evaluating Michigan vs. Notre Dame you should instead look at Notre Dames 2 late season losses. The reason why is simple , Miami and Usc run a pro style offense where the QB is a pocket passer with little to no chance for him to tuck the ball and bolt downfield for 70 yards. If you look at Navy and Tulsa who had semi mobile QB's ( NOTHING like Denard) The opposing QB both averaged about 4 yards a carry and more importantly they both won their games. This just shows that even tho the Irish's defense might have improved they did not improve where they need to in order stop Michigan.
My final reason is the defense, even our 2 worst defensive units EVER played well enough to pull out a win versus notre the last two years. I'm not saying next year we'll look like LSU on the defensive side of the ball, but we won't look like RR's vision of a Michigan defense either. Notre Dame is a pass first offense, throwing the ball 481 times last year while they ran the 414 time for less yards as a team then Denard did by himself. They lit up our secondary last year , that consisted of J.t Floyd, Kovacs and a few freshman, but who did'nt. They played good enough to win the game and nothing has happend this offseason to make me think they won't do the same this year.
I could leave out the fact this is the first night game in Michigan stadium history and the crowd and player will be crazy pumped or the fact that Notre Dame has'nt won at Michigan stadium since 1993 or something ridiculous like that as other reasons Notre dame won't win , but this game could be played in Notre Dame stadium, The Vatican or the moon and Michigan wins this game. 31-24
August 29th, 2011 at 10:52 PM ^
These are all valid points, but it's not like Notre Dame didn't have an off-season either. They had players that progressed and put on weight and have more experience. They also have an All-American.
I do believe our defense will be better (how can't it be, AMIRITE??), but "offseason improvement" isn't a very valid argument for why our defense will better shut down Notre Dame, who is returning a QB and stud WR and some solid backs.
August 29th, 2011 at 11:16 PM ^
though maybe you're directing that at someone else
And I left off one of the biggest - T/O margin. Our long-awaited reversion to the mean will help the defense tremendously.
EDIT: also keep in mind that when talking about getting stronger in the offseason, it means more at M (and with most young teams) than it does with others. People aren't arguing that Martin is heavier, or Molk, or even Demens or Omameh (though that boy is a beast this year). They're arguing, or at least they should be, that Cam Gordon is much larger this year than last. This means something b/c he was so under-sized in '10. Same with Roh. Size-wise, having a player get stronger and go from under-sized to average is a much bigger improvement than having and average sized player return as (still) an average sized player while just getting stronger.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:16 AM ^
I was mostly directing it at others. I think the player size gains are a little overrated. JME. Most teams have players playing at undesirable weights and they improve over the offseason. While Michigan has more players with room to improve, I think that advantage pales in comparison to things like They Have Manti Te'o And We Don't.
But thanks for arguing things other than "We're Michigan." Much more intellectually stimulating to read.
August 29th, 2011 at 11:34 PM ^
Gerg is 70% of the reason why the defense sucked last year. You don't think not giving receivers a 15 yard cushion on 3rd and 3 is going to help? Gerg is probably one of the worst DCs in all of football.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:04 PM ^
who played awful. It was in the pouring rain, mitigating SC's athletic advantage. And they had a wide open bomb that was flat dropped, or they would have won that game.
Still, the winning streak at year's end was impressive - I thought they were done after Tulsa.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:16 PM ^
Sorry I don't have much sympathy for their 5-star senior backup QB when ND was playing their true freshman backup. Especially since ND didn't have their #1 RB, #1 TE, #1 NT and a receiving corps limping off the buss.
USC couldn't score without starting within FG range off a Rees turnover. Their only TD came from a fumble recovery, that drive started on the ND 1 yard line and it took them to 4th down to finally punch it in, 4 straight runs if memory serves. ND nearly gave the game away, USC did nothing to win it themselves.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:32 PM ^
and the Rees turnovers - one might call that good defense. ND had 296 yards of offense, USC 261. Both teams were terrible.
From ESPN:
" Ronald Johnson settled under the pass at the Notre Dame 15 with no defenders anywhere near him. Southern California was almost certain to beat the Irish yet again when he made an easy touchdown catch in the waning seconds of his final home game.
Only he didn't."
You're right, USC did nothing to win it themselves. But that only strengthens the argument that this wasn't a very impressive win.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:43 PM ^
which team's true freshman QB gave the ball away 4 times in his own territory? again leading to all 4 of the opponent's scores
Without ND's offense, USC didn't have one themselves
August 29th, 2011 at 9:49 PM ^
So you're saying that without ND being terrible, USC couldn't win?
That's funny, because without USC being terrible (ROJO drop), ND couldn't win.
Either way, that game is hardly an endorsement of your team. You really want us to look at that game as evidence that ND is a good team?
August 29th, 2011 at 10:23 PM ^
alright so 4 TOs = 1 dropped pass
gotcha
August 29th, 2011 at 9:50 PM ^
So you are saying both teams played pretty shitty with backup QBs, but ND played less shitty? Yeah, I would be pretty pumped about that victory.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:26 PM ^
No, both QBs were pretty shitty, Rees was more off than Mustain, but that still the 3rd game he ever started, in that weather and at USC so I don't hold it that much against him. It was ND's defense and running game which made the difference and that wasn't something ND has ever been able to count on against USC.
that is making a move in the right direction.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^
Just 35 less than the powerhouse ND offense? If USC's offense sucked, ND's did as well. Which brings us back to the conclusion: an ugly game, played in the rain, both teams were terrible. This was not an impressive win.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:28 PM ^
ND wins are never impressive, no one would ever allow that to happen
August 29th, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^
I agree with most of what you're saying, but you are forgetting one thing about USC. Lane Kiffin. You should be very aware, especially from the end of the Weis era, that a terrible coach can drive a team to mediocrity quite easy. We are also aware of this fact. I believe that Kiffin is such a terrible coach, and USC will not see any consistant success until he is gone.
August 30th, 2011 at 2:51 PM ^
Isn't it great
August 29th, 2011 at 10:20 PM ^
If Matt Barkley played, USC wins by two touchdowns.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:21 PM ^
At least admit that Brian Kelly is the biggest Doucher in the coaching world. He is the smuggest bastard I have ever had the displeasure to hear speak and watching him smirk and roll his eyes on the sideline is almost entertainment. Oh, and I forgot that lesbian (NTTAWWT) golf visor he wears all the time. To go from fat Charlie to him is just making it too easy.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:28 PM ^
also killed a kid.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
Got away with it! Sounds like Spartys next coach to me...
August 29th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^
UM will definitely win the moob wet t-shirt contest this year, I can't argue that one
August 29th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
Haha. How long you been waiting to throw that back at us?
August 29th, 2011 at 9:44 PM ^
just came up with it, glad you could laugh before it is hidden
August 29th, 2011 at 10:21 PM ^
Trying my best to un-hide it. You've put more useful commentary on this blog than any of the people downgrading your comments. I definitely don't agree with some of your posts, but thats the point, right? I save the hate for those that deserve it most, they're called buckeyes.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:30 PM ^
appreciate the assistance, and that is exactly the point
August 29th, 2011 at 11:13 PM ^
August 30th, 2011 at 1:24 PM ^
I know alot of people like to ride Irish's jock because he's a opposing fan that doesn't act like a total d-bag. But he also has a pattern of throwing out "facts" that are anything but. It's usually something obscure enough that most just take it as truth. But if you actually fact check items he uses to bolster his arguments you'll find alot of make believe.
Check my post on page one for the most recent example I've happened across.
August 30th, 2011 at 2:54 PM ^
You mean when you started talking about the UM game, while everyone else was talking about the Tulsa game? Some damn fine detective work there holmes
August 30th, 2011 at 6:34 PM ^
You're correct in this case. I got sidetracked and I apologize. Though there are other examples that I could dig up if desired... I prefer not to as it would seem petty.
I think part of the reason I jumped the gun here was because of another similar conversation (ND losing Crist in the UM game) which you were involved in... And you may or may not have been the one attributing more int's to Montana (while overlooking Crist's) in that conversation.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:48 PM ^
Jacory Harris is absolutely a pocket passer. He had 27 total rushing yards for the entire year last year and averaged .9 yards per carry. The most carries he had in any game was 6. If that isn't a pocket passer I don't know what is, and on top of that he isn't even a good qb. He wasn't a capable qb last year, on any level, he had a poor completion percentage and had more INT's than TD's. His backup Stephan Morris only had 75 rushing yards and his passing numbers were just as poor as Harris's. ND didn't face two capable qb's in that game, they faced two subpar QB's.Neither one is remotely comparable to Denard in terms of running ability or overall talent.
And I don't know if you have actually listened to anything either Hoke or Borges have said so far, but Michigan is not going to run nothing but pro sets. There is still some spread in the playbook and they still will have plays that take advantage of Denard's feet. If anything Michigan will most likely be running more of hybrid offense, based on the what Hoke and Borges have said mutiple times.
Most of the hype surrounding ND is based on what they did late in the year last year, but what game was that impressive? Utah was a solid win, but Utah didn't really beat anybody of note during the year and got demolished in the their meeting with TCU. USC wasn't that good last year and was playing with their backup qb for most of the game. Miami was a pretty mediocre team as well. With that said however, I do think that ND has a lot of talent and being the second year in a system makes a difference. Based on that I would give ND the edge on paper, but I think the atmosphere/home crowd for UM will make it closer to a tossup.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:58 PM ^
Harris didn't play the whole year and was hurt the final half of the season, Morris didn't play until the 2nd half of the year and only played 3 full games. We're going to have to agree to disagree on their scrambling ability but I didn't and don't view either as a pocket passer.
I wasn't expecting them to run straight pro-style if anyting I expect to see denard in the shotgun almost exclusively unless he is handing the ball off. No point in breaking off a system that worked well last year.
I am sure it will be a tight game, it nearly always is at least for a few quarters, I will be interested to see if UM fans can keep the noise up in the stadium. Teams have been able to silence the crowd over the past few seasons, just not ND
August 29th, 2011 at 10:03 PM ^
Do you attend a lot of games in Michigan stadium?
Have you been there a lot since the new structures were put up?
I hope you're there on the 10th so you can see how loud it is in person. Much louder than your 80,000 elitists. Especially that night.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:14 PM ^
I haven't been back in a few years, haven't gotten to see if finished in person yet. Did see it after the new press boxes went up and was really impressed. Still planning to make it up there in a few weeks, should be a lot of fun.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:16 PM ^
Yeah... now is not the time to be talking of Michigan Stadium's intimidation factor. Over the past three years I have heard and seen far too many red and green fans take over the crowd. It hurts, but its the truth.
And I don't think the structures really make it insanely louder. The "rabidness" (read: drunkeness) of the night game may produce a particuluarly loud crowd however.
August 30th, 2011 at 9:33 AM ^
the stadium is a LOT louder now.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^
I just don't know... We've had two years to judge it and I really think that it's slightly louder, but try to objectively compare it to other games...
Illinois '10 was rocking and was absolutely crazy. Definitely loud. But Wiscosin '08 was louder, to me, and there were no structures to hold in the sound.
So, do I think it is louder at a maximum "loudness"? Yes. Is that still 100% dependent on people making noise? Yes. It'll still be the Quiet House if people don't get up and cheer. I think the push for people to be loud (and Special K spinnin da beats, Yo) has had just as much to do with noise increase as the structures.
Some empirical data would be awesome, but I've been to all games the past 5 years and based on what I've seen them measure (halftime of some game, pre-structures), I doubt we'll have meaningful data.
Plus, noise's impact on the game is drastically overstated.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:06 PM ^
Oh ya, and it wasn't a tight game at all in 2003, 2006, or 2007. 123-21 combined score in those three years.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:11 PM ^
yeah thats why I said, at least for a quarter or two
lol
August 29th, 2011 at 10:14 PM ^
rushing yards in 5 of the games he played in. Now I realize that sacks get counted into the rushing total as well, but Harris was only sacked 10 times in 10 games played, so it wasn't like a ton of negative yardage was weighing down his YPC that heavily. His career ypc is negative, he had negative 219 rushing yards in 2009, and 101 in 2008 averaging 2.2 yards a carry. I also have watched several Miami games in the last couple fo years, and Harris has looked like a pass first type and did not show much running ability in those games. His stats and what I saw of him live indicate a pocket passer type, and quite frankly I don't see what evidence there is to indicate otherwise.
Regardless neither Harris or his backup are comparable to Denard in terms of running ability and both Harris and his backup were subpar last year. It isn't exactly impressive that ND held down two subpar QB's, nor is it a reason to think they could hold Denard down.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
no not even close to comparable, no one is comparable to denard. He is in his own category
August 29th, 2011 at 9:29 PM ^
You really would have been doing yourself (and the rest of us) a big favor by staying out of this one.
But since you opened your mouth, I'll field your question.
"Why is UM better this year?"
Well, there are two interpretations of that question.
Why are we better than we were last season?
Well, for one we returned almost our entire team. All of the players who were young last season, have now played for a whole year. We FINALLY have no freshman set to start on either side of the ball. Factor that in with the addition of Troy Woolfolk, Kenny Demens (who wasn't starting against you last season), BWC (who I think is going to have a bigger impact than people think), etc and I think we will be much improved defensively.
Offensively we lit you guys up last season. Torched. Crispy. But Denard was still a first-year starter at QB. He'll be better this season. Count on it.
We have a better coaching staff. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, people assume that these kids had to re-learn an entirely new offense this offseason. Not even close. We will be running a lot of the same plays that embarrassed your defense last season. You can count on that as well.
Oh ya, and we will be able to hit FGs this season, so that's 6 more points we could have had against you last year.
I could go on, but I think that should be enough to shut you up for an hour or so.
The second interpretation of your question is "Why are we better than ND this season?"
The answer to that question is simple: We beat you last season (and the one before that). And I don't think you have improved enough to overcome our imrpovements and the fact that the game is in our house.
You can whine (and whine and whine and whine) about Crist getting hurt, but can you tell me how many points Crist being in the game would have been worth? How many?
Because we won by 4, but if we had any semblance of a defense we wouldn't have given up the Rudolph 95 yarder. So thats 11. Plus tow FGs we should have hit. That's 17. Was Crist worth that many points?
Sure you marched back down the field in the last 30 secs, and maybe would have scored with more time. But if there was even more time, we would have marched down your throats again too.
If you can make excuses, then so can we. We SHOULD have blown you out last season, if only we had THIS, THAT, AND THE OTHER. But football doesn't work that way. Sorry.
Anyways, I hope I answered your question.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:41 PM ^
You're really going to watch the first ND drive and claim that Christ getting a concusion/figuring out some other way to impair his vision didn't have a huge effect on the game? How exactly were we going to stop them? There's a time as a football fan that you have to recognize a great performance, and Dayne Christ was certainly great on that opening drive.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:53 PM ^
I am not saying that Crist did not look good. I'm not saying that him getting injured didn't change the game.
But trying to figure out how much it changed the game is impossible.
I saw more than one Michigan game where our Denard and our offense looked amazing on the first drive only to have the wheels fall off.
It happens. Stop feeling sorry for poor Crist and be happy that we won last year. I'm so sick of fellow Michigan fans acting EMO about our team.
No one can predict what would have happened last year if this and that and this would have happened. Its an exercise in futility.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:22 PM ^
It happens. Stop feeling sorry for poor Crist and be happy that we won last year. I'm so sick of fellow Michigan fans acting EMO about our team.I'm so sick of people thinking Michigan is going to be so much better this year and the reason is because "We're Michigan." Seriously, we're turning right back into the same old, entitled fan base that thinks we cannot possibly do anything but be great. Notre Dame is going to be the favorite for this game. You can argue on Michigan's behalf without ignoring that. Recognizing that it will be a tough game and then finding reasons why Michigan can overcome the odds make for a much better argument. Also, your point that we shredded Notre Dame last year... Um, please don't tell me you honostly think we can reproduce that? Denard had 502 yards. That is not reproducible. It is not reproducible. Do I need to repeat that? I think the game will come down to the wire and I hope we pull it out - but acting like ND will be a pushover is sheer ignorance.
August 29th, 2011 at 11:23 PM ^
Where did I ever say ND was a pushover? Irish asked someone to say why Michigan is better this year. I answered. Complaining about Crist has nothing to do with this year's game.
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<br>If you're tired of Michigan fans who predict us to beat a team who we have beaten the last two years, at home, at night, then you should probably not be on this board.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:30 AM ^
If you're tired of Michigan fans who predict us to beat a team who we have beaten the last two years, at home, at night, then you should probably not be on this board.That's not what I said. I'm tired of Michigan fans fawning over our team before a single snap. I'm worried that we're still devastatingly weak on the defensive side of the ball. I'm worried that Hoke has a sub-.500 record and despite Mattison's recruiting wizardry, we may still be in for a long haul this season. You said Denard would be better than last year against Notre Dame. He won't. Saying he will is ridiculous. To win this game our defense needs to find a way to stop Crist and Floyd. I'm not encouraged by that. I do predict we'll win though. I just think it's plain ridiculous to say "Denard torched you last year and will be even better this year" which is almost an exact quote.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:12 PM ^
I'm impressed you came up with this 2nd account to help you in arguments you can't win on this board. I remember when you were rational and unbiased. You were a welcome voice then. Now, you can just go away (both of you) hahahahaha
August 29th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
You're impressed? I'm sorry the registration process was so complicated for you. I'll send Brian an email to activate "Guest" posting to avoid any future inconvience for you.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:33 PM ^
2nd, psshhh this is like #25 or #26, lol
/no not really or maybe........
August 29th, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^
Everyone's team has returning starters, everyone gets bigger and faster thats preseason hype and we all get sucked into it.
Hanging off of everything the coaches say just makes it worse. Things like new personel (demens) and players returning from injury Woolfolk are definite reasons for optimism. Those are solid reasons why UM should be better on defense.
Just saying that the defense is now better because its a new coaching staff doesn't have anything to back it up unless you want to use the spring game. If you do that then its just as easy to say the offense is now just average, so its pointless. Adding a junior LB and senior CB is a solid argument.
Yeah I think you answered my question