Why Michigan will win under the lights
Notre Dame invades the Big House in a couple weeks and most experts as well as some fans are prematurely marking this up as a win for Notre Dame. The last three years have been terrible for Michigan football , possibly the worst in school history. In each of those 3 years Notre Dame has been favored to win , because of a late season collapse by the Wolverine and a supposed surge by the Irish. Things have'nt really worked out the way the "experts" have called it, with the Irish going 1-2 against 3 of the worst teams in Michigan history.
What makes people so sure Notre Dame will beat Michigan this year? Notre Dame finished the season by slipping by USC and stomping Miami (yea that Miami), but those are'nt the games we need to be looking at. When evaluating Michigan vs. Notre Dame you should instead look at Notre Dames 2 late season losses. The reason why is simple , Miami and Usc run a pro style offense where the QB is a pocket passer with little to no chance for him to tuck the ball and bolt downfield for 70 yards. If you look at Navy and Tulsa who had semi mobile QB's ( NOTHING like Denard) The opposing QB both averaged about 4 yards a carry and more importantly they both won their games. This just shows that even tho the Irish's defense might have improved they did not improve where they need to in order stop Michigan.
My final reason is the defense, even our 2 worst defensive units EVER played well enough to pull out a win versus notre the last two years. I'm not saying next year we'll look like LSU on the defensive side of the ball, but we won't look like RR's vision of a Michigan defense either. Notre Dame is a pass first offense, throwing the ball 481 times last year while they ran the 414 time for less yards as a team then Denard did by himself. They lit up our secondary last year , that consisted of J.t Floyd, Kovacs and a few freshman, but who did'nt. They played good enough to win the game and nothing has happend this offseason to make me think they won't do the same this year.
I could leave out the fact this is the first night game in Michigan stadium history and the crowd and player will be crazy pumped or the fact that Notre Dame has'nt won at Michigan stadium since 1993 or something ridiculous like that as other reasons Notre dame won't win , but this game could be played in Notre Dame stadium, The Vatican or the moon and Michigan wins this game. 31-24
August 29th, 2011 at 10:59 PM ^
in the last 4 games of 2010? Same personnel as the first 9, right?
They just started playing better. Playing together, the lightbulb went on for a few guys, they learned and trusted the scheme, maybe even some better coaching/playcalling. Or maybe they were just lucky and those last 4 teams were weak.
But you're putting faith in a defense that made improvement from week 9 to week 10 within the same season (with the same personnel), while at the same time saying it's unreasonable to expect M's defense to improve from year-to-year (with the same personnel). This is a contradiciton.
Returning players improve, especially true and redshirt freshman. And it appears our defensive coaching staff was about as bad as it gets. And T/O margin. These 3 things can lead to signficant improvement in 2011. Martin is elite; RVB, Roh, Demens, and Woolfolk are above average. The rest are average or a bit below (with potential for upside). But that all adds up to a Defense ranked in the Top 75 or so - a massive improvement from 2010.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:04 PM ^
Your first paragraph is exactly how I and just about every ND fans feels about this season, they showed they were able to play to their potential and did.
I haven't said anything about it being unreasonable that UM's defense has improved, I fully expect they have and I expect they will as the season goes on if everyone can stay healthy.
The big difference is ND showed it on the field last year against BCS calibre opponents, we're not banking on coach speak and practice insiders. ND played showed it in front of the whole country.
UM's defense will be better, I have no doubt.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
Let me get that right the team ND fans are excited for was the one that beat USC and Miami...wasn't Rees the starter for those games? Yea he was! Who is the starter again this year? Oh ya Crist! So the excitement is still off the recruiting hype of Crist! Gotcha that makes sense!
August 29th, 2011 at 10:17 PM ^
haha yep its all recruiting hype. I don't expect either QB to be a world beater this year, hopefully they won't need to be.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:27 PM ^
The bet is the same - Michigan wins and Irish deletes his account and doesn't return to MGoBlog until the following year. ND wins and I do the same. C'mon Irish, I'll even meet you in person to shake on it.
August 30th, 2011 at 2:30 AM ^
Jacory Harris ran the ball 27 times for 29 yards... WTF would you say he is a dual threat QB.. come on dude seriously why would we count Cierre woods for anything your lead rusher had 613 yards last year. If you can't run the ball and can't stop the run you won't win in the big 10.
Keep drinking that kool aid
You beat a Sanctioned USC team and "embarrassed" a Miami team that dropped 4 of it's last 6 games. You ask why is michigan better this year , well why is Notre Dame any better? How is this different from the same hyped fail Notre Dame squad you ND fans try to push on everyone EVERY year since Holtz retired?
August 29th, 2011 at 8:59 PM ^
Didn't ND win in AA in 2005?
August 29th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^
Yeah, they did. It was a really sloppy game that we should have won, but ND won 17-10. It was my second game in the Big House.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:00 PM ^
Because we're Michigan
And Denard
August 29th, 2011 at 9:06 PM ^
I have to assume that Hoke will have the team practice under the lights a couple of times prior to the game. It will be interesting to see if lighting conditions have any effect on the types of plays that are called.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^
Let's be honest: we were very fortunate to win both of those games. They were coinflips. We trailed with a minute to go in each one - and the second time, it was despite the fact that ND had played without its starting QB for nearly half the game. I don't think we can draw many useful lessons from those games, other than that Charlie Weis is a crappy game-manager and that Nate Montana is awful.
We should be better than last year, but so will they. They finished last season much more strongly than we did, and on a neutral field I'd give them the edge. Given the great home atmosphere we should have, I'd say it's 50-50.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:17 PM ^
August 29th, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^
I heard that they were going to try to communicate with alien life forms using Denards smile and the new screens at the big house. Because theory has it that the Big House is actually a giant antenna built to bring an alien aramada in from the 5th dimension..
Unless Kelly opens up the playbook I wouldn't expect anything more than a game managed offense. There has been almost nothing wrong with the offense in the last 4 years or so. It was always the defense that killed the team. The defense is loaded and is much improved, Diaco is killing it. Denard will not have nearly the field day he had last year. I expect NDs defense to win this game.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:31 PM ^
My reasoning: we all paid too much for a ticket to lose:
Michigan -- 77
Notre Dame -- 0
August 29th, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^
I paid $150 a ticket, so I hope they meet my monetary expectations. Or atleast make a field goal from 30 yards.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^
You got a hell of a deal
August 29th, 2011 at 10:48 PM ^
I have student tickets -- $30 lol
August 29th, 2011 at 10:59 PM ^
$0 :)
got them as a birthday present from my uncle
August 29th, 2011 at 11:26 PM ^
I was looking at flying in from SFO for the game, plane tix were cheaper than than game tickets on stubhub. Everything good was about $500.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:34 PM ^
Michigan will win because they have better players and because they have better playcallers on both sides of the ball. And our coach doesn't look like Chastity Bono on his/her way to the links.
August 30th, 2011 at 12:41 AM ^
August 29th, 2011 at 9:36 PM ^
Notre Dame sucks big donkey dicks. That's why we win.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^
August 30th, 2011 at 9:55 AM ^
on a few occasions, and we won't forget those. Gardner is a much better prospect overall, and if (God forbid) he had to stand in for Denard, he will do fine.
So to answer your question, Robinson/Gardner is an upgrade in every category except experience.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^
you are nothing but a troll. Just take your shamrock gerbil with you and leave this board, troll.
Go Blue!
August 29th, 2011 at 10:06 PM ^
Irish is okay. I don't see him attacking anyone, just offering the ND side of the argument.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:40 PM ^
though I have disagreed with him in this thread, I haven't downvoted him. I don't see anything that indicates troll, he is a good poster.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:08 PM ^
I'm glad someone else is finally seeing Irish for what he is.
He used to be a good contributor to the board.
But the past two years losses combined with the ND hype machine have turned him into a troll.
August 30th, 2011 at 9:30 AM ^
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blog-troll |
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To hide under a bridge of the information superhighway known to be travelled by your sworn enemies, waiting to pounce at an opportune moment
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Please note that every time Mgoblog crosses a bridge in which nd is mentioned ... Irish (aka - nd blog-troll) has to post his perverted sense of rightousness. Don't be fooled by the troll's cross-dressing as an "informed football intellectual" ... his purpose is still the same.
Go Blue!
August 29th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
one of the better posters. Including good recruiting insights. The ND defense did look much better at the end of the year, I just don't fully trust it. I think there's reason to question the quality of those 4 wins (and the play of the D), but he's not doing anything we wouldn't do - arguing for his team.
August 30th, 2011 at 9:39 AM ^
to see how I feel about ND. Having said that however, I agree that Irish is one of the better posters. As fans, we ALL have some degree of bias for our team. Irish never comes on this board insulting us or our team. He's not the least bit douchey (like some of our own are)...he makes logical arguments.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
Did I hear that UM has never beaten ND three times in a row? If so, THAT'S why we win. Gotta happen sometime.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:21 PM ^
We have, but not for about a century. We opened the series with something like eight straight wins.
August 29th, 2011 at 11:54 PM ^
And since that beginning of the century run, there has only been one other instance of someone winning three games in a row in the series (and yes, ND did it)
August 30th, 2011 at 8:45 AM ^
It was 4.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:08 PM ^
it wasn't in consecutive years though
August 29th, 2011 at 10:20 PM ^
will win this game. Brady and Greg Mattison will have the defense fired up, like times of old, and they will teach those golden domer s.o.b.'s what it's like to play against a defense that won't take no shit from anybody! Al will have Denard throwin' the rock all over the big house and we will (U of M fans) be very happy when we turn in for the night. After that, look out Nebraska, you just might get a cob shoved where the sun ain't shinin'...hee hee:) Bo Pelini...what a frickin' psycho!
August 29th, 2011 at 10:21 PM ^
vs. our secondary won't be pretty. Kovacs is in for a nightmare.
August 30th, 2011 at 12:19 AM ^
Cover 3 obviously doesn't work.
We'll likely be playing some sort of 2 deep, with either man or zone underneath. My guess is ND puts a ton of pressure on him.
August 30th, 2011 at 9:59 AM ^
Kovacs is a solid contributor on this D, much to the chagrin of those who value recruiting stars over heart and effort. Kovacs will start on the D until he graduates. He made a lot of clutch plays for us last year, and will have an even better year in the new system.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:02 AM ^
But this is the worst possible matchup for him.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:46 PM ^
I think victory for michigan is going to hinge completely on how well the defense has improved from last year. if they can hold notre dame to say 28 points or less i think michigan wins. denard will have another big game, i doubt it will be 500 yards big but i fully expect the coaching staff to use a ton of spread for this game. lots of denard carries and he will get his yards on the ground. as of right now i'd favor notre dame. if i were making a line i'd set them as a -4 or -5 favorite. we'll have a much better idea of what notre dame is going to be about after this weekend. i think we won't know as much about michigan though, as i expect michigan to keep the playcalling fairly vanilla. notre dame may do the same but i'd expect them to have to show a bit more as south florida is a fair amount better than western.
August 29th, 2011 at 10:47 PM ^
I'm not looking forward to the meltdown if we lose.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:09 PM ^
UM's season will not be over if ND wins, UM can win or lose any their games this year
August 29th, 2011 at 10:54 PM ^
Why don't we just see what both teams look like coming out of week 1? Anybody can make random predictions based on selective evidence from last year. Let's not forget that Crist got knocked out pretty early in the game last year. If he's in the game, we probably don't win.
Anything can happen. Just enjoy the season.
August 29th, 2011 at 11:29 PM ^
I think we will win because Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.
August 30th, 2011 at 12:12 AM ^
Kelly is in the second year of the spread with ND; it's always better than the first year. Michigan is in the first year of a new offense. Even if Greg Mattison somehow gets the defense as good as ND's will be, ND should win on offense alone.
If Michigan beats ND this time around, it probably means they are good enough to win ten or eleven this year. I hope all of you who think MIchigan beats ND this year are right, because it will mean there is a much better season in store than most people think.
August 30th, 2011 at 1:11 AM ^
Purdue went 9-3 in Tiller's first year (6-2 in the Big Ten) and he never had a better record there. Before that they had gone 13 seasons without making a bowl game. That Oregon team that smoked us in 2007 was playing its second game with Chip Kelly as OC (a year after going 7-6). Notre Dame was great on offense right away under Charlie Weis and didn't get any better in year two (and was shitty in year three).
There is no special progression for playing in a spread or any other type of offense. It is always about the players. ND might improve as Crist gains experience, but so will Michigan (and our guy's ceiling is much, much higher).
August 30th, 2011 at 3:05 PM ^
I'll have whatever you're smoking man, because I wish I could believe that going from a pure pro style offense to a no huddle spread is a summer camp installation, and that's the end of the road.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:11 PM ^
Offense alone, I don't know if I would go that far myself