What will it take for Charlie Weis to get fired this year?
This a silly topic prompted by the Mark Schalabach article Brian linked to on mgo.licio.us
If that gets pushed off the reader the link is here: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/preview09/columns/story?columnist=schlaba…
If Notre Dame wins 8 or 9 games do you really think the administration will have the balls to fire him?
The schedule:
vs Nevada
@ Michigan
vs Michigan State
@ Purdue
vs Washington
vs USC
vs Boston College
vs Washington State
@ Pitt
vs Uconn
@ Stanford
For the record, I really think there's next to no chance he'd get fired if he wins 9 games, especially in the wake of the Frank Solich fiasco. Even if he gets 8 wins I'd say it's 50-50.
Also, for extra credit: how many wins this year for Weis E. Coyote to score OMG richest contract extension EVAAA? I say 11.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:56 AM ^
if they're the notre dame everyone seems to think they are/should be 10 games should be EASY for them....but they're the REAL notre dame so they'll proabably win 8
August 17th, 2009 at 12:57 AM ^
7 or less wins and i say he's out.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:01 AM ^
I think 7 wins or less with possibly an easier schedule than last year and there's no way they can keep him. He should be ok, no Syracuse on the schedule this year.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:06 AM ^
He should be safe. He'll squeak out nine wins and the ND administration will be satisfied. BTW, even if they have a great year, he might not get an extension, since he's still working on that monster one (10 years, $30-40 million) he got after his first year.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:10 AM ^
But if he wins 11 games the NFL will come after him! Locking him up for the long term with another 40 million dollars would be the only reasonable response.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:16 AM ^
Heck, Weis got that contract extension DURING his first year, not after. I remember thinking at the time that I couldn't wait to watch this blow up in ND's face.
August 17th, 2009 at 11:36 AM ^
Even with double digit wins, he'll be in no position to negotiate. I simply can't see any other school dangling more money at him. There's no NFL coordinator position that would pay him as much, and doubt any NFL team believes he's head coach material (Lions' brain trust the exception). Short of making the BCS title game, I don't think Charlie has any leverage.
As to the threshold of getting canned, I agree with 7, which should be within reach but won't be the cakewalk most people are talking about.
Okay, three gimmes: Washington, Wazu & Purdue.
At Pitt, at Michigan, at Stanford. I think 2-1 at best with these.
Homes games with Nevada, BC, UConn, USC, and Navy. 4-1 at best, 3-2 a distinct possibility.
Nevada in week one could be fun to watch--if they gash ND's D with the run game, Minor, Brown, Shaw etc. could have a big day the following Saturday.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:17 AM ^
Since John Gruden and Urban Meyer are secretly being signed to take over as DC and OC respectively, while they hire Bill Belichick as HC, it wouldn't matter if he wins the MNC this year.
Updated:
[/sarcasm]
I think he's fired if he doesn't make a bowl. If he's 6-6, it might take a bowl win to salvage the job. Anything else and he stays put until Clausen has had his full 4 years.
I think they go 8-4. USC, Pitt, and UConn plus another upset somewhere. I'm not sure why I feel they lose to Pitt or UConn, other than perhaps cockiness. Both of those teams run a pretty conservative game plan, something that has hurt the Irish when facing supposedly over-matched opponents, so they could hang in and win.
August 17th, 2009 at 10:54 AM ^
Will be Michigan of course.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:31 AM ^
vs Nevada -- Nevada is better than SDSU, but I can't see Nevada having the horses to compete for 60 minutes.
@ Michigan -- Payback please dear god. I'm going to say Michigan wins. This game will tell us all we need to know about our safeties.
vs Michigan State -- Sparties own South Bend, but I think the streak HAS to end this year with a new MSU QB.
@ Purdue -- Uhh, ND by 50?
vs Washington -- ND by a lot.
vs USC -- Over under on NDs first first down: 24 minutes in.
vs Boston College -- At BC I'd say BC, but at home it's ND
vs Washington State -- This shouldn't even be played.
@ Pitt -- Pitt at home, no question.
vs Uconn -- Will be a very interesting game. ND wins though.
@ Stanford -- I think Stanford just puts a beating on ND. Call it a hunch.
I have them at at least 7 wins, with 1 No chance (USC) and 4 toss ups, all but UConn on the road.
Say they get 9 wins, can't really fire Weis unless USC (and/or Michigan) completely embarrass the shit out of them.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:22 AM ^
Stanford will worry me as well, but not because their coach used to play football at UM, which I am guessing is probably the reason why you think ND will lose.
But I don't like the timing, we should be eyeing a decent bowl game and I am worried the team may look past it. Plus the trees are getting better, and their running game is not going to be getting any weaker this year. Hopefully they actually use some of that offense against the other pac10 teams before they see us.
August 17th, 2009 at 3:00 AM ^
Harbaugh and Michigan aren't on great terms...
August 17th, 2009 at 11:44 AM ^
Yeah I know but if a UM fan had to pick between ND and Stanford I am not expecting too many votes for ND. :)
August 17th, 2009 at 11:57 AM ^
Probably because Stanford is an underdog. Everytime USC and ND play, I root for ND. Unless (for some odd reason) an ND loss helps Michigan.
August 17th, 2009 at 4:44 AM ^
ND should watch out for the Dawgs from Washington. I know they were a horrible team last year. Locker was out most of the year. And when he was in they should have beaten BYU if it wasn't for a silly celebration penalty.
Plus the game is between Purdue (a potential huge win) and a tough game versus USC. They might over look UDub and get caught.
August 17th, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^
It is always a possibility, Locker proved his worth to the team last year but with their new HC and new system if will be interesting to see how they do in the pac10 leading up to our game. If they have a win or two before they come to south bend then I don't think they'll be looked past but if they're 0-5 then it could be closer than expected.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:33 AM ^
9 wins seems to be the number that will keep the majority of actual ND fans content. I think 8 wins would lead to similar feelings that many had at the end of last year's regular season. The way those 4 games were lost would probably determine his future, if that came to pass.
That being said with everyone who is on this team, 10 -11 wins is where we should be. The Gator bowl should be the lowest tier bowl we are offered.
I don't see him accepting any type of extension, and I can't really see one being offered.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:43 AM ^
After how terrible Mangini, Crennel, and (soon to be anyway) Josh McDaniel are(will be) running their own teams, I don't think the NFL will want anymore ex-Bill Belichick assistants. Weis isn't going anywhere, and I don't just mean in the he weighs too much to move sense.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:56 AM ^
Hah whether you want to believe it or not, Weis would be hired right back into the NFL should he leave ND and decide he wants to continue coaching. Everything that they did at NE with him, even if a team thought they could only accomplish a small portion of that he would get an OC position.
But this should all be a moot discussion
August 17th, 2009 at 5:20 AM ^
Weis has seemed overwhelmed as a head coach, but was a decent assistant, and someone will take him back. Weis will have so much money in the bank when he leaves ND that he would probably be happy being the NFL's richest assistant coach.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:15 AM ^
Totally disagree. Mornhinweg, Rhodes, Sherman, etc all failed and teams are still hiring members of Mike Holmgren's coaching tree.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:27 PM ^
Homgren's tree actually has some success on its branches. Andy Reid has been nothing short of amazing for the Eagles and even Jon Gruden has a Superbowl ring. Belichick's proteges have just proven that the only football genius residing in New England is Bill himself.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:03 PM ^
I'm not sure how anyone can say Mangini, Crennel and Saban had no success. Mangini would have gone to the playoffs last year if not for being in the best division in football... Crennel got screwed out of the playoffs in a 10 win season season and suffered through quarterback Armageddon the next year. Saban ran away at the first sign of trouble in Miami, but he also had QB issues in that season. I still have faith in McDaniels, in spite of the Cutler saga.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:46 AM ^
Say ND only loses on a last second play to USC and maybe another game in overtime, but wins everything else, makes a BCS game and Weis indeed gets offered a lucrative extension, do you see yourself laughing, or crying?
August 17th, 2009 at 2:15 AM ^
I would be surprised. He has said before that he intends to stay at ND only until his son finishes college there and after that plans to retire. If he takes an extension I don't think he would be interested until much closer to that time, and it wouldn't be 10 year extension.
Nine or more wins will secure his HC position, at least until the next espn article, the more he wins the better we will do in recruiting. I really see this as his make or break year, if he is able to bring all the pieces together now after digging the football team out of the depth nightmare we had, then I have no doubt he will be thought of as a successful ND coach when he retires.
August 17th, 2009 at 3:41 AM ^
say he breezes through the schedule pretty good, loses 2 or 3, and loses the bowl game? will nd fans be happy? since it's not making much progress?
August 17th, 2009 at 11:59 AM ^
For me it will come down to how the losses come. If we're blown out by 3 teams and go to a bowl against a team we're under qualified for then it would be a meh season. If 2 of the 3 games were closely fought depending on which direction an on-side kick bounces then the losses won't hurt so bad and would actually leave me happier than the first scenario.
ND fans in general are always going to find something to complain about, if we went 13-0 ND fans would still be complaining that we didn't beat every team by 3 TDs or didn't shut everyone out. Or something else obscene, but in general it will probably depend on what message board you go to. The one thing you can be sure of, espn will be making a lot of money off of ND this year.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:35 AM ^
Please!
August 17th, 2009 at 5:28 AM ^
I remember UM fans chanting "Keep Bruce" at OSU fans back in the day.
I never understood why ND kept Weis in the first place, other than being stuck in a long contrace. I can't figure out quite why, but Weis doesn't seem to fit the image of most ND head coaches. I guess the only way to put it is that, to me, he comes off as greasy.
Whatever the look, the aura, and the projection of ND coaches is, Weis doesn't seem to have it. And I don't think a National Championship would change that, either. I think it is a lack of "rah-rah." Weis doesn't seem to get excited about ND football. And, as much as I hate to say it, excitement is what ND football is supposed to be about.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:24 PM ^
2 things kept Weis at ND,
1. Recruiting, with the worst season in school history we still pulled in the highest rated recruiting class in 2007. In 2008 we brought in another great class which was short on numbers but filled a lot of needs. This is the largest difference between him and Ty because Ty did not actually recruit for his last 2 seasons.
2. He made the staff changes required by the AD. Dline coach, and OC from last year have moved on and were replaced by some exciting new coaches. Oline coach Verducci came from the Browns, RB coach came from Louisville (he turned down the same position at UF), and Hart the Dline coach came from UW someone who had been there thru 3 coaching changes. Add that with Tenuta now calling the defensive plays and Weis calling the offensive plays again and there is no doubt for me that were in good hands.
Is Weis a ND type coach?
In my opinion its a yes, he has plenty of fire for everything that is involved. Coaching on game days seems like a pretty obvious example after the "60 minutes" interview from a few years ago. Well that same fire goes into recruiting, practice sessions and alumni speeches. It doesn't really show up in press conferences but it shouldn't really at that time, considering how every word or phrase spoken is over emphasized by the media.
August 17th, 2009 at 9:10 AM ^
I am thinking the same thing... I want Weis to be the ND coach for the next 20 years!
August 17th, 2009 at 5:27 AM ^
IMO, this goes back to one fortuitous decision by New England: to draft Tom Brady in the friggin' SIXTH round. Then you have the "fumble that wasn't," and a 20 yard drive that results in a field goal to propel them on to that first Super Bowl win, and the rest is (lucky) history. I believe everything that followed has been situations that he really didn't earn.
Now, in his fifth year, without proving jack shit, he has to finally be held accountable to the point that Notre Dame can no longer justify keeping him without a great season capped off by a BCS bowl victory. They probably will keep him with 8 or 9 wins, but I don't know why. Even last year he was kept from going 5-7 by a bad call in the SDSU game when SDSU fumbled at the ND one-yard line, and the ND guy recovered it at the half and dragged the ball into the end zone. The refs gave ND the ball at the 20 instead of either giving SDSU a safety, or probably more correctly, ND the ball where it was first recovered. Boom, and the ND blowhardedness is now back.
I think he benefitted from having Bellichik above him, and as head coach he is sorely lacking. Looking at that schedule, every game is winnable, even USC (especially at home. Hell, they almost beat Leinhart/Bush one year at ND). But I just don't see him as having the qualities to handle being The Man and that has been shown quite a few times in the last few years.
It is obviously now or never time for him, and again, luck benefits him with a terribly weak schedule. If he doesn't get it done, though, who will ND bring in? They will have that huge contract to pay off (I'm sure there is a smaller buyout), and to tell the truth, I don't think they are all that talented. It would still be a rebuilding job.
August 17th, 2009 at 6:25 AM ^
ND is talented though. I hate ND but I cannot stand when the so-called experts on ESPN say that ND has no talent and use that as their excuse for being mediocre. They've racked up some of the best recruiting classes over the last few years. Oh, they have high recruiting and academic standards? That doesn't matter AT ALL! They have still gotten top talent. IME it is the coaching which still doesn't make all that much sense cause they have a ridiculous amount of good assistant coaches and coordinators. Weis needs to go for them to get back to the top.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:41 PM ^
Alright so this is your history of Weis,
So Weis was lucky that Bellichik was the head coach, and lucky Brady was drafted to NE to cover for all his weaknesses and make him look good. Now in college Weis was lucky again last year because ND beat SDSU because the lucky refs weren't luckily paying attention. which propelled ND to all that success last year.
what was that sound, oh I was just rolling my eyes.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:39 PM ^
"Now in college Weis was lucky again last year because ND beat SDSU because the lucky refs weren't luckily paying attention"
My feeling after that game was SDSU got robbed beyond belief. They never showed that phantom PI play, and the calls against SDSU were total bullshit. I think ND did get screwed on one play early, but SDSU outplayed them until ND just started throwing bombs to receivers that either caught them or got PI calls.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:46 PM ^
I honestly can't remember that particular play, but if someone is mad about a penalty that was called on the field, shouldn't they be mad at the refs for calling the penalty and not the team that benefitted from it?
And for the record I hate big east refs.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:01 PM ^
Well, right, the refs biffed it huge and they suck. But NBC totally ignored it, didn't even mention it or show what happened. It just seemed really shitty. Then I didn't like the reffing later when we played ND, the Grady fumble, the Mathews TD, 2 PI calls I'm still confused about. ND reffing at home makes me angry.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:20 PM ^
I like big ten games because we normally get big ten refs, I am pretty sure the SDSU game had them bring their refs as well.
August 17th, 2009 at 6:50 AM ^
I hope he wins enough to stay. They'll never be a top 5 team with him.
August 17th, 2009 at 9:05 AM ^
He would have to be a pompous ass, alienate himself from his fanbase, make excuses after writing a book called, "No Excuses," underacheive with top notch talent, and eat five large babies.
Oh wait, he has already done those things? He probably just has to make a bowl game and the AD will have an excuse to not fire his multi-million dollar mistake.
...upon reflection, I may have been a bit harsh saying he "alienated the fanbase" since that is an outsiders perspective.
August 17th, 2009 at 9:46 AM ^
that Clausen is not the kind of guy you want throwing 70% of the time. ND's backs have good avg/p/carry - they have a stable of them to go along with a line that has been together for three years. Weiss likes to throw too much for his system to work. Jimmy Clausen had 7 games last year where he threw 2 or more INT's. If they just ran the ball more, they would win more often. Because Clausen will have the INT train running again this year, I think that the season will go like this:
Nevada - W
Michigan - L
Mich St - L
Purdue - W
Washington - W
USC - L
Boston College - L
Washington St - W
Navy - W
Pitt - L
UConn - L
Stanford - W
6-6 again with possibly a repeat Bowl win against Hawaii. Is that enough to stay head coach? Probably not. ND has lost more games in the last two years than ever before (in a two year span) in the history of the program. Follow that up with .500 and you're outta there!
August 17th, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
I'm not saying Notre Dame is a bad team, but I disagree with the ideas being thrown about by the sports media that Notre Dame has a "friendly schedule". Starting with the Nevada Wolfpack in week 1, this will be a challenge for Notre Dame. Chris Ault is an innovative coach. Nevada may be undersized, but to me there kind of like a faster, more pass-happy Air Force team that runs a crap load read option plays and can beat Notre Dame from time to time.
I would be shocked to see Notre Dame unbeaten heading into the USC game.
After that, games vs. Navy, Connecticut and at Stanford are not slam dunks either.
Notre Dame should be better all around this fall with all of that talent and experience.
August 17th, 2009 at 11:29 AM ^
If Weis ever beats USC, he won't have to worry about coaching football because they'll make him president of the university.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:28 PM ^
....President of the University wouldn't be good enough, they'd tear down Touchdown Jesus and erect Touchdown Charlie. Granted, a man of Weis' carriage would require some structural improvements be made to the existing building before the edifice could be installed.....
August 17th, 2009 at 12:21 PM ^
5 or more losses and black skin, and Weis is out for sure. He definitely dodged a bullet by not being black in 2007.
Fortunately for Ty Willingham, UW is not racist (just ask any player who played for Jim Owens!), so they let him go after going 0-12.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:26 PM ^
Here's how I see things playing out.
Likely losses (90% chance of losing): USC. Sadly I just have no reason to believe we're ready to compete with them yet, even though the talent/depth differential is closer than it has been in awhile.
Toss-ups (50% chance of winning): Michigan State, Pitt. Should we lose to either of these teams? No. But after the last couple season, I bet we win one and lose the other.
Probable wins (75% chance of winning): Nevada, BC, Connecticut, Stanford. I'm a bit worried about Nevada... first game of the season + different offense = who knows. BC always gets fired up to play us. Again, a game we should absolutely win, but after the last couple seasons I just can't be that confident.
Very probable wins (90% chance of winning): Michigan, Washington. Not to be a dick, but just looking at our strengths and weaknesses vs. your own, I like this match-up for us. Probably even more than last year's game, which I was pretty confident about. Your best chance is if your offensive line can dominate our DL and get a very good run game going. Our defensive line is young but talented, so it's possible. But our secondary will be very good and deep this year- we should be able to play enough single coverage to focus on the run. Feel free to argue on this, I'm sure you all see this as a very winnable game.
Wins: Purdue, Navy, Washington State.
Bottom line: the talent is there to go 11-1. If Weis truly is in over his head, we may go 9-3. This year's team has a better talent/depth combo of any of his previous teams though. Should be interesting.
Fire away.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:57 PM ^
I like the way you listed by losses, so I will list my top 3.
USC is a lot more vulnerable this year than years past. I don't even think ND needs to play as well as they did in 2005 to win the game this year.
Pitt is in very good position to win the Big East this year. They have holes to fill but are bringing back a strong team.
BC, we have no reason to lose to BC but if there is heart breaking loss to USC that next game at BC will have me worried on if they have gotten over it.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:12 PM ^
Why is the general consensus that SC is gonna not be SC this year?
SC is breaking in a new quarterback clearly, but the O-line is a beast of epic proportions, WR and RB are both ridiculously deep. The defense is very young but should all be very good. The D-line has some very solid young guys that have seen some playing time and a lot of freshman that have wowed in camps. LB is the biggest worry, but replacing Cushing, Maualuga, and Maiava is darn near impossible. That secondary is earth shatteringly good and very deep though. I just have trouble seeing how SC is any more vulnerable this year than in say 2006 or 2005? Both those teams lost boatloads of talent from the years previously on offense and defense respectively. SC will be just fine. In fact I would say they are less vulnerable than when Booty took the reins in 2006.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:28 PM ^
The new QB will be a big factor especially in their early games, they're replacing both Offensive and defensive coordinators and many of the defensive starters, LB in particular. There not dry of talent by any means on the offense, but they're more vulnerable now than we have ever played them with while Weis has been at ND.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:51 PM ^
IME that vulnerability has less to do with what SC lost and more to do with ND.
The new quarterback may affect the first few games for certain especially on the road at OSU. That or it could be a coming out party for Corp or Barkley much the way Auburn was for Leinart , Arkansas for JDB, and OSU for Sanchez. With the track record I would place bets on the latter.
The loss of Holt to UW will have little to no effect. Pete has always been and will always be the man running defense. Morton will be the wild card. He has been running the show through the air for a while now so I don't expect there will be a large dropoff in offensive production.
The vulnerability really comes from the ND side. You have a talented team that has played together for a while now. By all accounts I've read Clausen is really coming into his own and that offense should do well. Don't know too much about the defense but it is Notre Dame so the talent must be there. Can't be worse than the almost 500 yards of offense SC rolled up last year despite reining it in in the fourth quarter.
In short, I agree with you but I think it is the steps forward ND has made and not necessarily the steps back for USC.