What to do with Jimmy (Harbaugh)

I know there has been a lot of JH discussions.  Some say "can him!"  Some say he's still a good coach that just can't beat elite teams.  Some think the problem has been with his assistants which now appears to have switched from the offensive side to the defense...or maybe not.  This analysis is an attempt to consider is JH good for UM, can we expect better, and how does he compare to his predecessors as well as our ever present juggernaut of a rival down south.

Intro - JH is pretty good, but annoyingly so

JH was successful at every other stop and by and large he's been successful at UM, but frustratingly so.  We all know the losses to OSU, MSU, against ranked teams (particularly on the road), and in bowl games.  We know the woes...the QB issues, the close calls against MSU, the 4th down spot, the Orange Bowl & Outback Bowl near misses, the injuries, JOK, Brandon Peters, Shea Patterson, etc.  The list goes on and on.  The reality is JH has not lived up to expectations.  He's never beaten OSU.  He's never made the playoffs.  He's never won a conference title.  But, he's not the only one.

His predecessors (1969 - present)

Hoke was good before he got to UM and won 11 games before things went off the rails.  Rich Rod won 10-11 games three years in a row prior to arriving at UM.  But, time has shown us that neither guy was really that great.  Carr in his 13 years averaged 9.4 wins per year, the exact same as JH.  Since neither played in a conference championship or playoff game, the season length was the same for both.  But, Carr was 6-7 versus OSU whereas JH is 0-5.  It's worth noting that Carr was 1-6 since Tressel took over, but by and large the losses were close unlike 3/5 years for JH.

Carr also had some frustrating trends with the prevent defenses.  But, Carr had 3 top 5 recruiting classes and one top 6 class in his 7 classes in the 2000s.  During that same time OSU only had one top 5 class.  So, Carr's UM teams were more talented than Tressel's OSU teams despite the popular opinion to the contrary.  However, in the following 13 classes since 2007, OSU has been in the top 5 of the rankings 8 times compared to UM's one.  

To provide more context Moellar averaged 8 wins per year, but played one less game during his tenure with a 12 game season.  Bo averaged 9.7 wins per year in an 11 game season.  So, Gary was essentially the same as JH and Bo was better.  Both fared better against OSU.  Bo was about the same as Carr overall and Moellar was 3-1-1.  Unfortunately internet recruiting rankings only go back to 2000 so we can't compare talent from those eras.

Is CFB different today?

So, when we walk down memory lane if we're looking at the recent history of UM football from 1969-today we see JH is roughly the same as Moellar & Carr and slightly worse than Bo, but significantly worse against OSU than all of them.  However, when we look at recruiting it's clear OSU has recruited at a higher level post-Tressel with Meyer and Day than it historically had during the rest of it's recent history.  The real question is why does UM expect to be a playoff team or to win B1G championships when essentially it can't do one without the other since OSU is a playoff team and in the same division?  None of Gary's teams would have made the playoffs.  Carr's '97 team would and possibly the 2006 team.  Bo had several 1-loss teams in the early 70s that could have made the playoffs and a few in the 80s.  So, in the past almost 40 years there really only a handful of playoff contending level teams and most of them belonged to Bo quite some time ago and probably none since 2000.  I think the thing that falsely leads UM fans to think they are better than they are is their often lofty pre-season ranking.  UM has the tendency to be in the top 5-10 in the preseason rankings, but more like the top 12-20 in the post season rankings.  So, I think it's unfair to expect JH to make them a playoff team or even a conference champion with OSU as they currently are.

Take aways

Ultimately, I think we are looking for UM's version of Meyer, Saban, Swenney, but unfortunately we don't have a good modern day example of that ever occurring at UM.  Bo was the closest thing, but even he had a bad bowl record and never won a NC and likely didn't have to deal with the juggernaut that OSU now is.  Short of finding the next great coach, which seems unlikely, UM's best bet seems to be to wait for OSU stop being the Meyer/Day version and revert back to the Cooper, Fickell, and even Hayes versions.  Honestly I have to assume Day is simply benefitting from Meyer's system.  He may be a good schematic coach, but I doubt he could have built what Meyer did without him.  So, our hope is that Meyer and Day move on from OSU and the job doesn't stay in house and the new coach has to reinvent the wheel, even if they are doing so with the benefit of a loaded roster.  I know it sucks, but patience or luck are our best bets.  That may revert us back to pre-RR standards, which aren't a lot different in terms of W/L records, but means we are competitive with OSU again and are more likely to win B1G championships. 

Is there any hope moving forward?

You can still roll the dice and hope for more with another HC.  Despite JH's W/L record and recruiting successes it's also clear there is some management issues there with all the reoccurring problems like recruiting holes, not getting up for big games, clock management, and the team just too often looking unprepared that makes you say WTF while watching them.  Maybe you'll get all the good without some of the bad and that turns into a product a lot less frustrating, albeit without a ton of difference in the W/L column.  But, maybe you'll get Hoke/RR 2.0.  Or, maybe you'll get the same result but with slightly different problems.  Here's to hoping Meyer takes another job, Day jumps to the NFL, and OSU hires someone that is not a generational talent and revert back to their historical norm and we once again get competitive with them and have the chance to win a conference title and every once in a blue moon get a string of luck and the right QB to take a run at the playoffs.  So, keep him or try something new, the biggest take away is to be patient and wait for OSU to slow back down and until they do, don't expect much against them, a conference championship, or a playoff appearance.  Shoot for 2016 or 2018 with a better bowl outcome.