What are your week-by-week schedule predictions?
Alright, it's getting to be that time. Looking ahead, what is your week-by-week breakdown of Michigan's schedule and how you think this team will do overall? Here's my grading scale:
win - Michigan is favored to win easily and will do so, barring an unlikely upset.
lean win - Michigan likely to win, but expect a tight one.
tossup - could go either way.
lean loss - Michigan likely to lose, but expect a tight one.
loss - expecting to lose, will require an upset for Michigan to win.
- CSU - win
- Hawaii - win
- UConn - win
- UMD - win
- @ Iowa - lean win (has Iowa closed the gap since the B1GCCG last fall? Playing at Kinnick makes this tough)
- @ IU - win (Indiana has the benefit of playing at home, but not expecting them to be good this year)
- PSU - lean win (expecting a tough game, but giving Michigan the edge being at home)
- *BYE* (DON'T LOSE THE BYE WEEK! NOTHING GOOD HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT)
- MSU - tossup (both teams will be coming off a bye; I like Michigan playing at home here, but we all know this is MSU's Super Bowl)
- @ Rutger - win
- Nebraska - lean win (I like Michigan at home for this, but I'm expecting Nebraska to be tough this year; and last year's game looms in the memory)
- Illinois - win
- @ OSU - tossup (expecting a good game)
Based on all this, I'm expecting a floor of 10-2 (assuming Michigan wins every game I've marked at least as a lean to win). I think Michigan is the better team over MSU, so it's not too hard to see this team rolling into Columbus at 11-0; maybe setting up another 1-2 matchup in the series.
Iowa, PSU, MSU, and Nebraska are the games prior to OSU that give me pause. Other than those games, this team just needs to take care of business against the rest of their schedule.
We will play. I will watch.
I do not believe in trying to make game by game predictions. Until I see teams I figure we will go 12-0. I usually go into games thinking we are going to win. Even some of those years against ohio I thought we had a chance.
Some of that feeling went away during the previous 2 tenures.
I remember walking out of Kinnick just a few years ago after losing a night game at the last second. It hurt. But it was the first time I hurt after a loss in years. Now I am back to being grouchy and hurting when we lose. I love it!!!!
We will play. I will watch.
I do not believe in trying to make game by game predictions. Until I see teams I figure we will go 12-0. I usually go into games thinking we are going to win. Even some of those years against ohio I thought we had a chance.
Some of that feeling went away during the previous 2 tenures.
I remember walking out of Kinnick just a few years ago after losing a night game at the last second. It hurt. But it was the first time I hurt after a loss in years. Now I am back to being grouchy and hurting when we lose. I love it!!!!
all wins duh
My expectations for the season will be tossed out the window the second the ball gets kicked off on 9/3. I will go into every week with extremely high hopes, and each Saturday will end in elation or depression. This is the way.
This is the way
Correct. As Michigan Football fans, these are the only two outcomes we face.
(putting potential injuries aside). Honestly, if we don't roll into Columbus undefeated, then something's wrong. This is probably the easiest schedule we've had in a couple decades, and we return more than most in the top 10. Also, when have we ever had a bye week before Sparty?!
We had byes before home games vs. MSU in 2017 & 2019. So it’s worked out really poorly and really well.
I knew that, but I meant to say is that how often do we get a bye week against MSU vs MSU have a bye week against us?
2021 was the first time MSU had a bye week before the UM game since 2011. This upcoming season, both MSU & UM have bye weeks before the game
Are you my wife? Because you are doing a great job making look bad in front of my friends.
:)
I still have no fvcking idea why they continued to let O'Korn chuck it into the monsoon in 2017.
MSU has feasted on terrible in-game coaching by Harbaugh. Three or all four losses could have been avoided by decisions that seem simple in hindsight. May it end, or at least pause, this year!
For the season, I'm the same as those above. I emotionally expect M to win every game, except for OSU which my lizard brain allows me to treat as a toss-up. But before reason is taken away by the moment of game day, I predict we'll be 10-1 going into the Ohio State game. The lone loss will seem totally inexplicable and unfair, but won't change the fact that beating Ohio State would put M back into the playoff.
We had a bye week before MSU in 2019 — and beat them by 5 scores! Here’s to a similar result this year
Should have beat them by 5 scores last year. Minter's number 1, 2, and 3 priorities should be figuring out how to not have the defense shit its pants every time the other team goes hurry up.
This. They did a good job of making plays when the defense was not set and ready to play. It was a gimmick that took advantage of a DC not used to college tempo. Now let's see what they can do without Walker and with a defense that is actually lined up.
Maybe not substituting players when the offense doesn't might help.
Eh, it's hard to go 11-0 but yes, if we don't roll into C-bus at at least 10-1 with everything on the line, sometime is wrong.
Iowa, MSU and PSU are all about 70% chance to win but that still means we're likely to trip up in one of them.
If you consider that each game is mostly independent from each other (I understand they are not perfectly independent, due to injuries etc.), then we should not have a lose until Columbus.
Huh?
I don't follow your logic but that's not how probability works.
Yes, assuming that each game is independent (even though that really doesn't matter), and assuming Michigan has a 70% chance to beat each of MSU, PSU and Iowa, the probability that they will lose at least one of them is:
1 - P [they win all three]
P [they win all three] = 0.7*0.7*0.7 = 0.343
1 - 0.343 = 65.7%.
Even if you think we have an 80% chance to beat each of them the odds of losing at least one is still 1 - 0.8*0.8*0.8 = 48.8%, ie a coin flip. And that doesn't even consider the chances that we lose a game outside of those three.
We will likely be favored in each of the first 11 games but we're pretty unlikely to win them all. It's like a great FT shooter taking 11 shots. Each one is likely to go in but he's unlikely to make 11 in a row.
Ok. It has been some years since my stats class at Michigan in the late 90s (and my preparation for the GMAT in the early 2000s), so I could be wrong and willing to admit that.
Assuming each event is independent, if I flip a coin 50 times and each time comes up heads, what is the probability that the next flip is tails? If its independent, then the next flip probability is 50/50.
Using your approach, the most likely scenario in your calculation is what you mentioned: 0.343. Ok then, on the opposite end of the spectrum is (0.3 x 0.3 x 0.3) is 0.027. The most likely scenario is that we win all 3 games.
Unfortunately that's not the most likely scenario. Out of those three games, Michigan is either going to win zero, one, two, or three games. Here are the chances of each of those happening, if the chances of winning each game individually is 70%.
0 - 2.7%
1 - 18.9%
2 - 44.1%
3 - 34.3%
You can use an online Bernoulli trials calculator to find these odds, since the math gets tedious.
You're missing all the middle options. Instead of doing real statistics, you can skip to the correct maximum probability outcome by just adding up the percentages for a problem like this. So three 70% chances add up to 210%, or 2.1 wins, which rounds to 2 wins.
Based on this simple approach, you can hang with real stats people.
For 3 wins to be the most likely outcome, statistically, M would need an 84% win probability or higher in all three games. Give or take.
August 10th, 2022 at 1:36 AM ^
Uhhhh, no not even close. The guy below you did well to explain the probabilities. Another way to think about it intuitively is that a 70% chance of winning is almost exactly 2 out of 3. So...yeah.
No idea why you're only considering the odds that they win them all or that they win none.
I have a question... I just read on another site that the QB's are splitting reps down the middle. Doesn't this limit how well either one can do? Wouldnt you prefer 80-20 so that one QB is 100% in sync with the team? We have so many weapons, and we treat QB as an asset - which I understand, but I worry about unlocking the offense if two guys are trying to compete with each other AND get the ball to the playmakers in space.
What say you, oh off-season football experts?
I think 50/50 is fine for the summer but as we get closer even if both are virtually tied coaches should make a decision amd get one closer to 80/20
right. i thought that would be now since we're about 3.5 weeks out! I expect them to split in-game until Maryland. Will be curious what happens after.
Corum, Edwards, Wilson, All, Anthony, Johnson, Freshman, ... just get them the ball.
I hear our OL is sizing up to be better than last year.
Our OOC schedule should basically be (had better be) a bunch of practice reps, so they have time to work out the rotation.
I believe it with the OL. Vastardis was really good, but I agree with Brian that on net Olu will probably be a push. What we might lose in organization should be offset by athleticism and it sounds like the organization and recognition should be top notch as they're talking about the line reading the secondary.
And any drop from Steuber to Jones (if any) will likely be more than offset by another year from improvement from Hayes, Zinter and Keegan/other guard.
Seemed to work pretty well last year, so no reason to think both guys aren't going to each get all the first team reps between the two of them. Until one separates from the other such that you can call him the starter, you split the reps down the middle. If one does outshine the other, then you might switch it to 60/40, 70/30 or whatever in season to sync that vibe.
But in the summer? Let them sling it, good for the whole team to rotate reps with different players. Now if they're splitting reps 50/50 heading into October/November, then yeah, I'd be pining for a higher percentage of first team reps for the starter.
Insert AI "We talkin' 'bout practice, man..."
Nebraska a lean win shouldn't be a thing.
The biggest danger, pre-OSU, is Iowa. The rest should be wins, although history suggests 1 will slip through the cracks. We're a 1-loss team headed into Columbus.
A couple hard hits on little Scottie and his mom should be enough to soften up Nebraska.
Wait, who is hitting on Scott's mom?
That game could be interesting. Nebraska wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and don't forget they took UM to the wire (and UM needed some fluky plays to go their way late in the game to seal it). With the game this year being later in the season, 1 of 2 things are likely to happen:
1. Nebraska has turned the corner from last year, and they are entering the UM game with momentum and new life. This would make the game very interesting, but I still lean Michigan with it being in Ann Arbor.
2. Nebraska has not turned things around, and Scott Frost has lost the team (if not his job). If this is the case, then the game is a cake walk.
I think option 1 is more likely than option 2, hence my prediction.
I am out of the prediction business because I thought we had MSU wrapped up (this may not be true, i'm forever nervous), I thought we were done against penn state (this may not be true - i never stopped believing), and for sure i thought we had no shot in the game (ok well I thought we were long shots) and even as we dominated the 2nd half i still didn't believe it until stroud threw that ball sooo short of the sticks (this is for sure true)
My italicsed alter ego convinced me to give some predictions. so here goes: W, W, W, nervous W, totally bats W(tf), W, overhyped pre game and then comfy W, i go camping, overhyped pre game and then comfy W. slightly unsetlling W, W, nervous W, delight turning to delirium (#Endless) W, biggest little brown W since WW2, marching through Georgia W (hurrah), W in the knockoff not Rose SoCal W
These are dreams. these are not destiny. even dream can be escorted by death. these desires can result in despair or delight, and of course, delight can turn to delirium.
This please. Thanks.
Can Iowa turn the "omg, we were so embarassed" into an actual win?
Can msu do the same bullshit? We were up 16, not including a TD taken away late in the 3rd. Our offense is more talented. Our D will be a step behind probably. They have fewer, but capable weapons. Their D hopefully is a continued shit show.
Can psu rise up for a big win? Franklin has been pretty bad recently. Their offense looks like dookie. Take care of the ball and grit our way to a 27-10 type game.
We have some interesting games before our big ones this year.
- maryland is nothing like iowa in any way shape or form, but it will be a chance for the team to keep their shit in gear. Maryland's offense appears to be in good form. Different type of twitchy athlete than anything Iowa has, so I hope that doesnt surprise us.
- @IU before PSU at home. Nice home patsy - Indiana will be physical - key will be not to get injuries etc... But a nice physical matchup before PSU at home.
- bye before MSU i hope doesnt give the coaches time to get cute with prep. execute, avoid mistakes, win the f-ing game.
- Illinois is a nice team to beat up on pre-OSU. Shouldnt be an issue. I would say, though, that Rutgers, Neb, and Illinois leading to OSU is a little soft. I hope they dont get over confident and lose that edge (which i dont know that we'll have).
Indiana is never a patsy for Michigan. The Hoosiers have held fourth quarter leads on Michigan in like 4 of their past 5 games.
i get you - but this year they are supposed to be pretty awful. And, yes, we're in conference, so of course they'll be fiesty at times, but...
We're 60-10 against them. They've won 2 times since 1971.
I'm more worried about Illinois, tbh. Everyone talks about Nebraska but Illinois was about 4 plays away from being a 9 win outfit, and Bielema does know how to build a smash mouth Big Ten program. (Caveat - they were 3 plays away from being a 9-loss outfit, and didn't play the top 3 teams in the East, and needed quite a few OTs to beat Penn State while losing to Rutgers and Maryland).
We will continue to play weird, hard fought games against IU. And win them in various ways.
It reminds me of a Red Sox/Yankees story before the Red Sox started winning titles. I think it was 1999 or 2003, before the Sox and the Yanks hooked up in the playoffs, Bernie Williams was telling Yogi Berra that he was getting concerned about the Red Sox because of Pedro, Manny, etc. Yogi apparently just patted Bernie Williams on the back and told him not to worry: "We've been kicking their asses my entire life."
I'm a Red Sox fan and that still makes me laugh.
But, Mike Hart is back on our sideline, not on Indiana's. Order is restored in the universe! No Hoosier surprise this year.
I have zero concerns about us getting overconfident going into OSU. I do have concerns with the difficulty of playing a team full of five stars on the road. It will be a huge challenge away from the friendly confines.
There’s a decent chance Michigan-Iowa is a noon ET kickoff. Fox loves putting the conference’s premier game of the week in that Big Noon slot. MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, & PSU are playing Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, and Northwestern respectively that week. Baylor-Oklahoma State is the only issue: that could be a top 10 undefeated showdown so it’ll just depend on which game Fox wants to put at noon and which later in the day. I’d feel much better about an 11am CT local game than another night game at Kinnick…
Good point about wanting it to be an early game. I think there's a pretty good chance you're right about Fox wanting it as their noon game, especially since they heavily promote "Big Noon" as their way to grab the Saturday College Football viewership.
It also depends on what network actually gets that game. Not a guarantee that Fox has the rights to that game unless there was an announcement that I missed (Mgoblue has it as TBD for TV).
Agreed. There are at least 6 games we have no times or network information. I am crossing fingers for a Noon game though in Iowa City. Bad things happen in Iowa after dark...just ask the livestock.
Do we know it's Fox and not ABC?