Weekend Betting - Week 7
Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games. I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed... doing this thread a day earlier than usual this week as will be away from a computer all of tomorrow)
(Last week record: 4-3-1 Overall season record: 22-19-3)
Saturday games:
South Carolina at Georgia, Noon: South Carolina +23.5
Iowa St at West Virginia, 4pm: West Virginia +10.5
San Jose St at Nevada, 4pm,: Nevada -2.5
Ole Miss at Missouri, 7pm: Missouri +12
Charlotte at Florida International, 7pm: Charlotte +5
Penn St at Iowa, 7:30pm: Iowa +3.5
USC at Notre Dame, 7:30pm: USC +11
Wyoming at San Diego St, 10:30pm : San Diego St -3.5
Notable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a 23 point favorite over Illinois. Over/Under: 49
Michigan St currently sits a a 10.5 Underdog vs Wisconsin (at Wisconsin)
LSU currently sit as a 13 point favorite over Florida (at LSU)
Other lines:
https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline/college-football/
What's yours?
October 10th, 2019 at 10:00 PM ^
Michigan is 19 on some sites. That’s easy money.
Stay away from PSU/Iowa, that’s just freaky
my lock of the week: Nebraska.
Edit: Nebraska playing backup QB. And UM was 19 at one time, idiot
October 11th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
Michigan line is not 19 anywhere.
October 11th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
That Nebraska-Minny line is Nebraska +7.5, right? I honestly don't know what to think about that game straight-up, so I suppose I'd take the points.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
The LSU vs Florida game could be good. LSU's defense is not as dominate as it once was, a young secondary, but their offense took off, kinda was hoping MIchigan's offense would do the same thing. It will probably be LSU's offense that wins the game.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:11 PM ^
Will be a great atmosphere there. I lean LSU to cover the 13
October 10th, 2019 at 10:35 PM ^
Oh boy, that is a lot of points to give up. UF always plays LSU tough. I would tease LSU for 6 but have zero clue on the O/U for that game.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:46 PM ^
I know this is going to seem like a homer pick, but my two locks are Michigan and Wisconsin. OSU didn’t throw the ball vey well against MSU. They ran all over them. I look for Wisconsin to do the same with a similar result and Michigan wins by 30+.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:51 PM ^
Eh I wouldn't look too much into osu performance. They ran all over them bc they were such a threat in the passing game. Msu will have 8 or 9 in the box and they have an elite front so wisky better come prepared to throw a little bit to keep them honest..or else msu will pull off the upset.
October 11th, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
Yeah, I think you’re right. Northwestern gave Wisconsin a game and someone else just said all the sharps are taking MSU. I’ll just double down on the UM game.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
Michigan St - Wisconsin I think will be you classic Pros vs Joes game with the Joes on Wisconsin and Pros on MSU, at least that what's I gather from reading and listening this week. But that was the case last week as well with MSU at OSU, and the "joes" won on OSU covering so it doesn't guarantee anything.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:50 PM ^
Shit, just realized that Ole Miss at Missouri game in the OP, I meant to put the bet is on OLE MISS +12, not Missouri +12 who is favored.. And one can still not edit original posts on mgoblog 3.0. unfortunately ... But let Ole Miss +12 be the pick regardless.
Also, forgot to put for a notable game of disciission is Oklahoma is currently a 10 point favorite over Texas on a neutral field.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:52 PM ^
Mich, LSU, ND, Wisconsin all cover big
Iowa wins straight up
October 10th, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^
BEAVERS + 6
BEAVERS ML
Betting a dime.
#Easy money.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
Trojans are Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week!
October 11th, 2019 at 12:18 AM ^
I watch too much MWC football. But I'm completely opposite on the Wyoming and Nevada games. San Diego State isn't going to be able to score vs. Wyoming. And I know they beat Purdue, but Nevada just flat out stinks. They shouldn't be favored over anybody at this point.
I agree with you on Charlotte vs. FIU. They have some decent things going on down there, on the verge of becoming a fairly good C-USA team. Others:
Eastern Michigan -1 versus Ball State. EMU has been not very good their last 2 games but I am confident they can turn it around.
Virginia +2 at Miami FLA. Miami shouldn't be favored over anybody decent at this point either, even at home. Yeesh, what is going on down there?
Maryland -3.5 at Purdue. I'm presuming "fairly good and capable of scoring lots of points Maryland" shows up here, not their evil twin "God-awful and offensively inept Maryland."
Boise State -13.5 vs Hawaii. Hawaii is actually pretty good this year. But that's still a long trip, and Hawaii is 0-6 all time in Boise (5 of the losses by 20+ points).
Tennessee +7 vs. Mississippi State. I know, UT has struggled. I still see value in a 7-point home dog vs. a thoroughly average team in a game where Pruitt may well be coaching for his job.
Army -4.5 at Western Kentucky. The Tulane loss took some "shine" off of Army, but they're still pretty good and a tough schematic match-up. WKU hasn't played a triple option team in years, and Louisville shredded WKU on the ground earlier this year.
Arkansas +7 at Kentucky. The Cats season is about to become a disaster, they are starting a WR at QB in this one! Chad Morris has to get his 1st SEC win at some point - this may be his best shot.
October 11th, 2019 at 5:37 AM ^
I guess my place on SDSU is I think Wyoming has gotten a little “lucky” so far this season when looking at the box scores but sometimes SDSU has been tough to trust as the favorite in recent memory . I got burned on nevada a couple weeks ago in a blowout loss to Hawaii, so we shall see.
Miami-Virginia is a big stay-away game for me . You are right in everyone has been surprised by that line . I am sure the House is rooting for Miami.
Arkansas with the points was definitely a lean for me I almost bet. From a newsletter I subscribe to from a guy that consults for offshore sportsbooks , he said early in the week that Arkansas with the points was the most “sharp bet” team on the slate !
October 11th, 2019 at 12:23 AM ^
Nevada, Virginia, Iowa are all getting tons of wise guy love.
Coincidentally I'll be watching these from a Vegas sportsbook.
Go Blue.
October 11th, 2019 at 1:33 AM ^
Good god I could never bet on college football. The only exception was when I was in Vegas at the grand and figured, when in Rome...
But seriously, these are not professional athletes. They are barely adults and many of them still haven't figured out how to deal with high pressure situations, or balance the varied responsibilities required from being a semi-pro athlete with those of normal life.
I wish you all the best of luck in your endeavors, but I personally think it's a fool's errand.
October 11th, 2019 at 5:40 AM ^
Ncaa football is definitely a different type of betting than NFL, as the NFL is much of a “bet the numbers” vs “bet the team” game than college football, as college football has much more variance as you described. The injury report system also isn’t streamlined like the nfl system is , which is interesting since so many states betting is legal now . Anyway , I did pretty well on it last year but of course one season isn’t a good sample size , as years before vary for me with red ink vs black ink . We shall see .
October 11th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
Cfb is way easier and cbb is the easiest for those who work hard at it. You want unpredictability and variance as that's where your edge comes from. If everyone seen the same exact thing than you wouldn't be able to find an advantage.
The biggest edge in college sports is all the teams meaning the betting markets know less about the teams on average than they do the professional sports cause there is so much information out there esp the smaller conferences like the Mac, cusa, sun belt. That's also why the early part of the season is easiest to beat in all sports as we don't have a good idea what level these teams are at yet.
October 11th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
Also easier to win earlier in the week you bet as you're betting into a softer market as they haven't raised the limits yet and the bigger smarter more sophisticated bettors usually haven't joined the party and taken out some of the mistakes, value etc
October 12th, 2019 at 7:47 AM ^
I've only touched on CBB with mixed results. What is some advice that you have when looking for holes in the CBB lines?
October 11th, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
Always bet on Black.
October 11th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
I bet someone will call for Harbaugh, Gattis or Brown to be fired before the game is over Saturday.
October 11th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
Frames Janklin is 0-11 on the road against ranked teams.
October 11th, 2019 at 7:15 PM ^
Is this a true stat?
October 11th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
I don't see how the M line isn't higher. I watched Illinois for a few plays on a B1G replay, and their DL is terrible. I mean in the first quarter when they shouldn't have given up yet, they looked like they already had given up. Michigan should get some confidence and push them around. Hopefully the RBs see some daylight and get used to seeing the hole again and pop through, rather than running up on the OL's butts and trying to shove forward.
October 11th, 2019 at 7:05 PM ^
Hey guys, Putting some change on a few games this weekend just for fun now that sports wagering is legal here in Indiana.
I used to be heavy into wagering back in college - some online and some with a bookie. I used to consult the website 'Bookieshell' and other similar sites back then. Being out of it for so long I'm not sure which websites are good for advice, message boards, stats, etc anymore. Which do you guys visit for your betting tips.
Lol. Just recalled a pinksheet type of publication kept under the counter at a newsstand in GR that was great!
October 12th, 2019 at 6:27 AM ^
Michigan -23.5. If you got that early 19 you are stealing money I think.
FSU +27.5.
PSU -2.5.