Week 8 B1G projected scores

Submitted by BuckeyeChuck on October 20th, 2022 at 3:59 PM

Iowa @ Ohio St

  • Vegas predicted score: Ohio St 39-10
  • SP+ predicted score: Ohio St 35-13
  • Ohio St is favored by Vegas to win this game by more points (29) than Iowa has allowed in any game this season (27). And we’ve seen this week after week: Vegas likes OSU a touchdown better than SP+ does (-22), despite OSU being SP+’s #1 team. We’ll see how OSU responds to the SP+ #1 defense in the nation. As always in this matchup, the ‘Eyes have it!

Indiana @ Rutgers

  • Vegas predicted score: Rutgers 26-23
  • SP+ predicted score: Rutgers 26-21
  • Yawn. Somebody’s gonna win. Nobody will care.

Purdue @ Wisconsin

  • Vegas predicted score: Wisconsin 27-24
  • SP+ predicted score: Wisconsin 26-26 (0.9 point difference)
  • It’s difficult to know whether Wisconsin will play angry (i.e., well) or if they’ve thrown in the towel on the season and just go through the motions. Purdue seems to have something to play for, being tied for first place. And yet the 1-3 team is a slight favorite over the 3-1 team. Is Purdue actually good, or just benefitted from playing Minnesota Ibrahim-less, sneaking past Maryland because of a botched XP, and squeaked one out against Nebraska in a one-score game? (who hasn’t?)

Northwestern @ Maryland

  • Vegas predicted score: Maryland 32-19
  • SP+ predicted score: Maryland 39-15
  • SP+ likes Maryland 11 points better than Vegas does, but that’s because it’s not taking into consideration Taulia’s injury. But the Maryland backup QB might be decent. A must win for Maryland if they want to be considered as one of the stronger teams in the middle pack of the B1G.

Minnesota @ Penn St

  • Vegas predicted score: Penn St 24-20
  • SP+ predicted score: Penn St 24-23
  • Penn St is coming off the drubbing of a lifetime. Will they show up hungry and want to take it out on Minnesota? They’d better stay off Twitter. Minnesota is not quite out of the West Division race yet. This would be a humongous road win for them, and keep them one game behind in the loss column (albeit behind a team(s) that beat them). This is important for PSU to show last week was not their identity (if indeed it was not their identity).

lhglrkwg

October 20th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^

Snoozer of a slate in the big ten. I'm gonna bet Minnesota rolls into Happy Valley and makes our win over Penn State look worse. They've got a solid defense and a good running game against the formerly #5 rushing defense of Penn State. I'll bet Minnesota 24-17

Wally Llama

October 20th, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^

Snoozer of a slate in the big ten.

Couldn't agree more, but I expect more weeks will feel like this outside of UM games. UM and OSU have separated themselves from a pile of mediocrity. Illinois is trying to climb out of that pile while Penn State is on its way to climbing straight into that pile.

I can't think of a matchup I'd REALLY like to dedicate 3.5 hours to watching outside of UM or OSU. Illinois-Maryland, maybe?

And I hope you're wrong about PSU-Minny, but I fear you're right.

Newton Gimmick

October 20th, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^

Iowa has only lost two games by 30+ points since 2004.  One was us in the championship game last year, the other was @Minnesota in 2014.  They kinda hang around with teams, both bad and good

Also I don't doubt that OSU's offense is good, but Iowa will be the best defense they've yet faced, and the best or at least most talented defense they have played thus far held them to 21 points.

Last, anyone have an updated record of Franklin vs the spread the week after a straight up loss?  I think it's something atrocious like 5-20 in his last 25

Needs

October 20th, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^

A must win for Maryland if they want to be considered as one of the stronger teams in the middle pack of the B1G.

Real inspirational speech potential here. "Guys, go out and prove you're the 4th best team in this conference!"

Amazinblu

October 20th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^

The Bucks will roll, and cover.  They want to silence any chatter that Michigan may be stronger than they are - and, will fight for more first place votes in the polls - even though the polls don't matter.

Rutgers holds serve and wins a conference game.

Purdue will find a way to win in Camp Randall.  Unless, the jump into infraction / penalty purgatory and give the Badgers the game.

Maryland wins.   Unfortunately, it's a very tough year for Fitz and the Cats.

Penn State fights for dear life, and takes advantage of the white out which sends Minny back with their third straight loss.

CarrIsMyHomeboy

October 20th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^

If our interests are for PSU's recruiting class to fall apart, then I'd root for a loss. But after the class they held together last year, I'm skeptical of the premise (that a tanking season will submarine their class).

On the other hand, if our interests are to get into the CFP even if we lose to OSU, then we need PSU to remain ranked as high as possible, and I'll root for them the rest of the way**.

**(unless they miraculously beat OSU, in which case I'd hope they lose to someone else, as I don't believe the tiebreakers favor us in a three-way tie)

TeslaRedVictorBlue

October 20th, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^

Maybe a better question.. Do we hope that someone exposes something about OSU, and plays them very close, showing they're vulnerable and letting us plan around it... Or do we want them full of themselves and hope our coaching staff figures it out

m1jjb00

October 20th, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^

I think Iowa-Ohio State is even.  After all, Petras has 1 more pass attempt than Young, and they both have 3 interceptions.  Didn't bother looking up the rest of the stats.

MGlobules

October 20th, 2022 at 4:59 PM ^

Jesus, the Big Ten is ass. What we really need to hope now is that OSU has been lulled into such a sense of complacency that when they finally encounter our hard-hittin' boyos, they will be shocked, unable to respond in kind. Don't screw this up for us, Illinois. 

Perkis-Size Me

October 21st, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^

I'd absolutely take OSU by more against Iowa. If Iowa had an average, or even mediocre offense, I'd say those scores were reasonable. But they have the worst offense in America. Doesn't matter how good their defense is, they're going to be gassed by the second half because their offense can't stay on the field. Iowa's D might get a couple of early stops, but the floodgates will burst open by the third quarter, and there is no Kinnick voodoo magic for Iowa to fall back on. That's got 52-14 written all over it. 

For Minnesota-Penn State, this all depends on 1) How they come out and respond after last week's drubbing. Is their collective head in the right place, or are they down on themselves? 2) How healthy is Minnesota? Sounds like Tanner Morgan could play, but if he doesn't, then Minnesota is probably in a bit of trouble. I'm guessing Penn State wins, but it won't be a "sexy" or "convincing" win. PSU fans will get to the end of that game and be like "ehhh....okay." Probably 31-21 or something to that effect. 

MRunner73

October 21st, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^

Iowa@ OSU; the big if is can Iowa hold the Buckeyes to under 40 pts. The weather will be sunny and mild and that's what OH State loves is pleasant weather to chuck the ball all over the playing field. IMO, OH State lays at least 40 on Iowa.

IN @ Rutgers; it's a who cares game. For the sake of Mich SOS, you'd want Rutgers to win but then again, we played @ IN already, so maybe it's a who cares outcome.

Pur @ Wisc; The Boilers are in the hunt in the West Div. If they can have a balanced attack, they should win. This could be a shootout with both teams scoring in the 30s.

NW @ MD; let's have the Terps win for our SOS and it should be easy. Tulia could even miss the game and the Terps should get the win.

MN @ PSU; a PSU win helps our SOS. If PSU has any quality left, they should win at home. Ibrahim could be a real running threat and he could lead Min to the win. An interesting game to follow. This does have the makings of a very close game. Home team by 1 or 2 points.

smwilliams

October 21st, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^

One thing worth mentioning for the PSU-Minnesota game. Last I read, it was unclear if  Tanner Morgan was going to play and apparently his backup was atrocious. If Morgan can’t go, you have to like PSU at home.