Watch Alabama/Auburn. Michigan definitely has a shot.
I just finished watching the Alabama vs. Auburn game.
Alabama is good -- but they are most definitely beatable. Watch that game, and you will feel a lot better about the Citrus Bowl. Michigan will have its chance.
Short summary:
Alabama lost their Heisman QB starter, lost their Heisman 2nd stringer (to Oklahoma), and the 3rd guy in there now, who was a 3-star recruit, is well into the realm of being a mortal who makes plenty of mistakes. And their defense isn't the greatest.
More details:
Alabama's QB is not close to as much a running threat or passing threat as Fields. He made great throws sometimes (a few bombs right on the money) but plenty of passes that weren't perfect and misses, too. Doesn't matter how good receivers are if the ball doesn't get to them. He often held the ball in one hand out in the breeze as he ran and scrambled. Prime for stripping.
Najee Harris is a great RB. But Michigan's defense at least doesn't have to worry about him *and* a QB who is also a huge running/scrambling threat. Alabama's rushing offense is #57, and most of that is with Tua in there. They will lean on it more now, but they aren't the runningest team out there.
Alabama's defense did not look the greatest. Auburn's QB sometimes had lots of time to throw, and when he didn't, some scrambling worked great. Alabama's pass defense didn't look all that spectacular. The defense made a fair number of mistakes.
If Michigan can:
-- Slow down Harris a bit (don't have to stop him always, just slow him some).
-- Have a kicker who won't kick it to Waddle.
-- Put a fast CB on Waddle, instead of a guy who is beat a lot.
-- Put some pass-rush pressure on the Alabama QB.
Then:
-- Michigan could do fine in this one.
Watch the game. Do not be so scared of Alabama. They are most definitely beatable. They lost the keystone of their offense and had to replace him with a guy who isn't bad, but has many vulnerabilities. Their defense is not bad, but not the greatest either.
December 10th, 2019 at 6:54 AM ^
Fuck Alabama!!
December 10th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
Stick it to 'em, Shea
December 10th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^
You do you, Yoder. Or Shea. Or whoever you are. But on this we agree!
December 10th, 2019 at 7:19 AM ^
Thank you for being reasonable and actually looking into the matchup instead of using your BPONE.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:47 AM ^
The blog proprietors have yet to even acknowledge that the matchup is taking place, so OP is lightyears ahead of them
December 10th, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^
Michigan has a chance for sure, is it incredibly small and highly unlikely....yes...but it is still a chance.
Biggest issue for Michigan offensively is the running game. In fair objective evaluation, Michigan's running game will be the weakest of any Power 5 opponent they have faced this year. You can bet than Alabama's D is gonna sell out entirely on the pass and make Michigan run the ball. I don't know how Michigan overcomes this obstacle. Unless they can have high success running many shorter routs for people like Sainstrill that will essentially be running plays but are passes, I don't see the running game getting over 80 yards for the day.
December 10th, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^
Well, perhaps Michigan will play a QB who can/will actually execute a speed-in-space, RPO offense. Put McCaffrey or Milton out there, hell, put McNamara out there. I do not want to see Patterson, or any of the seniors for that matter, out there in this game. The seniors have had their day in the sun. I do not need to see Lavert with 3 more PIs or holding calls or Josh dropping any more game sealing INTs or Hudson mindlessly jumping offside. I want to see Hayes, Filiaga, Rumler, Jones, Barnhart, Honigford… You have three weeks to prepare next year's team to play this game-as a unit...let the underclassmen play.
December 10th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
This game is also about recruiting. You can't completely mail this in on purpose. This is about putting guys in position to get drafted so elite players will actually want to play for you. This is about beating a traditional power in the south so elite players will want to play for you.
December 10th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
I don't think we have to win to catch the eyes of elite recruits. We simply need to look truly competitive. Like we belong on the field.
December 10th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
Jesus, man. Find something else to do if watching a fucking football game causes you so much pain.
December 10th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
you have to admit, his viewpoints are outside of the box.
December 10th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
Patterson executed the offense very well against OSU. And the offense is built to take what they give us. If they don't respect the run we will shred them.
December 10th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
I think Michigan can move the ball on Alabama for sure. However, I don't think we can "shred them" with our run game.
Our OL, on paper, will be most likely be outmatched by their DL. Furthermore, none of our RB (and this is what holds back our offense from really being effective against elite teams) are a threat. None are truly explosive, elusive or have the ability to take it to the house against Bama. Their LB's are going to be as athletic as our RB's.
But that's why you play the game. I hope for a miracle. Would be such a great win for the program and shut up many of my friends that are Bama faithful. Plus would be a massive shot in the arm for recruiting I would think.
December 10th, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
That's definitely a bad take on the OL. This OL has 3 guaranteed NFL guards on it (Runyan, Bredeson, Onwenu), a probable NFL center, and a promising young tackle. If you actually spend time reading and watching the films that UFR has done, the OL has constantly provided holes, even against the most stifling defense. It's just hard to produce yardage when the defense has an extra guy or two because they don't respect the QB keep. the RPO game has changed that significantly
December 10th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
I don't want to discourage anyone thinking outside the box... but, well,,, we probably don't want to sit our entire first string. Probably put that idea back in the box. :-)
December 10th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
This is the sort of reply where all I can think is, "Where did the bad man hurt you?"
December 10th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
Put McCaffrey ...
I got to this point, scrolled down, and hit the neg
December 10th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
BPONE is the most logical and rational approach to M football, that its pretty well established this year
December 10th, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
BPONE is for weaklings. There is no logic equation, no matter how much of an underdog you are, that tells you that you're better off being and feeling like a submissive defeatist.
Instead, you can have fire and the attitude of a true Wolverine. Have a good attitude and enthusiasm, and if it doesn't work out -- so what? Congratulate the other side, be happy that folks tried their best, and move on. Next year is a new year. It feels waaaaaaay better than having a raging, uncomfortable PBONER.
December 10th, 2019 at 10:01 PM ^
I’m so jacked now. Michigan WILL win.
December 11th, 2019 at 3:30 AM ^
That's the spirit.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:20 AM ^
Auburn is not a great football team. HOWEVA, Auburn has a very good defensive line with a lot of big, big boys. That is the reason they were able to force Bama into a lot of passing situations (with the 3rd string QB you mentioned). Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to stop elite running teams and I just don’t see them being able to in this game.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:26 AM ^
And that's why the path to winning this game isn't holding Bama to under 30. It's putting up 40+ on Bama's defense.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:58 AM ^
Yes, there's a portion of our fanbase that still believes winning a game 46-41 or 45-38 isn't "right" or "good football." People can like what they like, but what those scores are is modern football. LSU finally realized that and they're #1.
Unfortunately, while our offense has improved (and I think we're moving in the right direction as a program), I'm not sure we're there yet. But this bowl game should be a showcase to try-- the goal should be 45 or more points. Hopefully the defense will do well, but I'm not counting on it.
December 10th, 2019 at 8:16 AM ^
Modern football has been enabled by some real changes in officiating, namely OL downfield liberalism that makes RPO possible and the pick plays / rub routes that used to be called OPI. The old guard like Harbaugh have been slow to adapt, but I think he gets it now. And I agree to win a game against an elite opponent in today's more liberal rules environment, it means having to score at least 35 points and sometimes even 45 points if the opponent's execution of RPOs and pick plays is flawless.
December 10th, 2019 at 8:19 AM ^
People still remember beating Illinois 67-65, and it was not good football. But that was ages ago and I agree that today the goal is (and always has been) to score more points than your opponent. Big 12 football for everyone!
December 10th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
That same team lost to OSU 7-37, MSU 17-34 and Mississippi State 14-52. Being able to put up a ton of points against sh#t teams is all well and good, but being able to score consistently and not hang your D out to dry is perhaps better football.
I want to win 67-0 and hear the lamentation of the women.
December 10th, 2019 at 9:03 AM ^
So that same portion of the fan base watched the Wisconsin and the Ohio State game this year, and the result of not being able to defend up the middle was the other team scored more points than our team.
We aren't playing a Big 12 team where we can score every possession. Defense is important.
What people also are undervaluing is Nick Saban and his staff have four weeks to only prepare for Michigan. Not a playoff team and two potential championship game opponents. Not to mention Tua's brother could get significant playing time (they burnt his redshirt I think).
December 10th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
It is more about scoring every single time we have a clear opportunity to score. It is not just the fan base who seems to unable to get "up to speed" with how football is being played, but the coaching staff who still seems uncomfortable with the idea that beating other teams to a large extent is going to be about outscoring them.
Out of what appears to be little more than general impulse, our staff runs very conservative, predictable stuff in what appear to be "do or die" moments where scoring is an absolute necessity. Patterson could not miss against Ohio State through 1.5 quarters. So with first and ten close to the OSU endzone, watching the coaches call two consecutive runs that Patterson has shown almost no aptitude to execute was vomit inducing.
We wasted a 2nd and Goal against Penn State on the final drive on a stupid Patterson keeper that wasn't getting in from pre-snap. Mason entering the game against Wisconsin after the big Bell catch spelled doom. Even the rinky-dink Tight End dump off that failed spectacularly before the OSU DPJ third down drop made me want to punch something.
Run your stuff. Gary Moeller famously said, before the Desmond Howard catch, "no, no, no, we are going to throw the ball to Desmond and we are going to score a touchdown!" Throw the ball to __________________ (enter one of five names), and score a touchdown.
December 10th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
Ok, so when has Oklahoma, Oregon, or whoever won a championship? Bama changed from McCarron type offense to Hurts/Tua type offense sure, but still the outcome of the championship and playoff games have come down to who's defense can get stops against who's high scoring offense. We can go back to Rich Rod days if you like, but that never was going to fix real games against real contenders who have strength and advantage on both sides of the ball.
This year we happen to have a weak spot in the middle - OSU ran through it until we plugged it, and then went around the plug. Wisconsin just ran through it. Bama will do the same - even if ten guys walk for the NFL. Last year we had a different weak spot that was exploited (the middle didn't provide enough pressure either).
We might win sure. We could, which is probably why the initial spread is only a TD, but we a more likely to get smacked straight in the mouth all day, and we all know how that ends up going.
December 10th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
The last drive in the Indiana game told me all I needed to know about where the D was late in the year. Backup QB, not even using best RB, they kept running it and moving the chains. Most starters on D still on field, IU wasn't even trying to throw so everyone knew what was coming, yet the only thing that finally stopped IU was the game clock. Bama may not have an epic OL they've had in the past, but it's way better than IU and their RBs will just run it down M's throat all game long.
M will move the ball and score, but drives will stall because, like other poster stated, M will call plays they want to run instead of ones that stand a chance, just cuz.
December 10th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
"...Nick Saban and his staff have four weeks to only prepare for Michigan."
Jim Harbaugh and his staff also have four weeks to only prepare for Alabama. Preparation time is a wash.
December 10th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
CFB has changed a ton in just 5-10 years. Look no further than the Bama-LSU rivalry which went from 9-6 and 21-0 in 2011 to 46-41 in 2019. I think only last year did Harbaugh realize you can't win like it's 2011 anymore and fortunately Harbaugh/Gattis is moving us in the right direction now. We're definitely 2-3 years behind the curve though
December 10th, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
I agree that Michigan hasn't shown that they can stop elite running teams, as you said. As the OP points out, Alabama has the #57 rushing offense this season. Ohio State is #5; Wisconsin is #15; Nebraska #32; Northwestern #45; Notre Dame #46; Penn State #52; Maryland #58. Alabama does have the #3 passing offense, so perhaps they were focusing on the pass with Tua. They will likely shift to run heavy, so we'll see what Michigan does against that. I don't have a lot of confidence - nobody gave them a game until LSU, and that was 45-41, then Auburn at 48-45.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:35 AM ^
Not being a dick, but if any team can do the things you list against any given team, they can win all their games. Just putting a fast guy on a receiver doesn't mean said fast guy won't get beat anyway. Most FBS corners are fast. What about the other 3 guys they have that will be playing on Sunday?
December 10th, 2019 at 8:07 AM ^
Yeah and the problem with worrying about Waddle is that he's their 4th receiver. Yikes. But not having seen Bama besides LSU and Auburn, I don't know how that's the case. That guy looked like the most dangerous guy on the field by far in both games.
Michigan has a shot, but I don't feel optimistic at all about slowing down their running game. I think Michigan will put up points, but I don't think they're going to score like LSU did. Michigan is about as good as Auburn and is probably going to need nearly as much luck as Auburn got.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:44 AM ^
With a mortal QB, I can see Bama's offensive game plan morphing to a run heavy diet between the tackles - taking full advantage of Michigan's 'all DE all the time' DL. I believe M will be giving up ~40 lbs/man across the DL. Brown needs to find a way to be ready for that. Perhaps that means we see Hinton get some actual run during the competitive portion of the game, for a change? Maybe even Smith gets some time clogging the middle. With the speedy DE's we can throw out there, maybe Hinton and Smith just need to be space eaters inside - doing nothing more than not getting blown off the LOS. That will go miles toward a successful defensive outing.
Offensively, the Bama LBs were hit hard early in the year with injuries. They can be messed with, which is something Harbaugh is pretty good at doing. Lose the fucking drops and dumb-ass fundamental mistakes, and M can score a bundle of points.
Speaking of bundled points, I think this will be a shootout. I've said this a few times over the last few weeks, and I'll say it again here. M needs to score - at least - 35 points to be in this game. Putting up 35 keeps them in it by essentially matching anything realistic that Bama's offense will do, and will keep a lot of pressure off the defense. Against both OSU and UW, M's offense was turned into a big-play needing thing in the second half, which eliminates a large portion of the playbook. That inevitably leads to quick possessions, putting more pressure on the D which, in turn, leads to more defensive gambling.
Everybody has been screaming about Brown's defense. I maintain that the offense needs to help out a LOT more than it has been. Even in the last few games...
December 10th, 2019 at 8:03 AM ^
I expect them to run early and often. All they need to do is look at what Wisconsin & OSU did.
December 10th, 2019 at 8:09 AM ^
"Everybody has been screaming about Brown's defense. I maintain that the offense needs to help out a LOT more than it has been. Even in the last few games..."
Except, Michigan went out and got the lead against OSU and was keeping pace in the first half minus the fumble and dropped TD. But the defense literally only forced 2 punts the entire game and one of which Michigan gifted OSU a first down.
With Wisconsin, it was the same issue. The defense could not get a single stop and no matter what your offense is doing, it doesn't matter if the defense can't get a stop.
Offense and defense go hand-in-hand, but to say that the offense needs to help out a "LOT" more is preposterous.
December 10th, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
When we jump out to a lead against a good team our defense can't ever seem to help us hold it. They need to get that shit sorted out sooner rather than later, because if OSU drops 50 on us again next year, Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork will sell out their stock in 10 mins.
December 10th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
35 points at minimum? Try 49 to start with.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:50 AM ^
Except we suck in bowl games.
December 10th, 2019 at 7:52 AM ^
Is Harris going to play in the bowl game ? Not likely if he is getting 1st round feedback.
December 10th, 2019 at 8:04 AM ^
Wow he's already a junior? Feels like yesterday that he scorned us. Insert wiltingrose.bmp
December 10th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
He isn't a 1st round pick. Likely day 2 behind a deep RB class like Dobbins, Taylor, Etienne, etc.
December 10th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
You are probably right, but the combine will be critical for Harris. He did not get the same game reps as those other RBs, so stat-wise it doesn't portray first round. But I recall his SPARQ numbers were insanely good, so maybe he has more athletic potential and less cycle hours than say Dobbins. But I agree, Taylor is likely first RB off the board. After that, kind of depends on team need and scheme.
December 10th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
Dobbins shared the ball with Weber in his first two years and doesn't have much wear and tear. The top 3 backs likely will be in no order: Taylor, Dobbins and Etienne. Not all three will get picked at 1st round because of positional value so that means Harris isn't likely going to be a 1st round pick
December 10th, 2019 at 8:02 AM ^
The real path to winning is getting these guys back...
December 10th, 2019 at 8:07 AM ^
Shut up now