Washington Post lists Rashan Gary as among the most "risky" picks of the draft; Marvin's question: Why was Gary not a better pass rusher?
Here's a link to the Post article.
It's relatively light on information, but it lists a stat I hadn't seen before. According to the article, Gary's "13.8 percent win rate as a pass rusher last season ranked 76th among edge defenders in college football." Over the past two seasons Gary's win rate was 16.2%.
So, I suppose my question for those with more football knowledge than me is why wasn't Gary a better edge rusher? I realize he has/had a shoulder issues. Also, he seemed to get double-teamed a lot, which opened up opportunities for Chase Winovitch, but this "win rate" stat would seem to account for that.
Also, by contrast, Winovitch is listed in the same article as a "steal" for the Patriots, with a "win rate" of "20.5 percent" over the past two seasons.
final thought: there is no such thing as a meaningless bowl game. They all matter.
Easy. His win rate wasn’t higher because he skipped the bowl game, and NFL teams really took exception to that.
I think Gary will do fine in the NFL he has the god given talent he needs more moves and more coaching on when to use them. He really only has one or two pass rush moves. In the NFL he can practice a lot more and afford to work with specialist to help him. He'll be fine it just might take him a little bit to get up to speed.
Maybe he just isn't THAT good. In retrospect the #1 recruit ranking was, shall we say, inflated? To me he played like a high 4 star at best who had injury issues. I know the NFL is supposed to be highly analytical and obsessive at scouting but they sometimes get blinded by groupthink around the perception of great potential. Gary without the notoriety is likely a second round pick.
I suspect most of us know this. We've all been a bit disappointed in Gary's production given the hype. But I don't question his integrity or his heart and hope the NFL is a great experience for him.
I think his potential is "real", as much as potential can be, because there are plays on his film where he flashes his 5-star talent. I (very uneducatedly) think his shoulder injury impacted both his play and conditioning, and also could have prevented him from getting the practice reps he needed to develop more than 1 or 2 pass rush moves.
Even the most absolute freak athletes need some technique at the NFL and highest level of college football. Look at what Jadaveon Clowney has done in the pros-he's been a better than average player but hasn't dominated in the pros. And Clowney has as much or more football talent than Gary.
Previous poster pointed to the big issue with Gary's lack of production; he has basically two moves and that ain't gonna cut it when you're getting doubled just about every play. Much like everyone else I was very disappointed with his lack of numbers but he is still an athletic freak of nature and you can't teach that.
I think he's gonna be just fine in the NFL, he can learn the technique. In a couple years I'd wager we'll all be complaining "where was this when he was at Michigan?!" as we Michigan fans are wont to do.
Previous poster pointed to the big issue with Gary's lack of production; he has basically two moves and that ain't gonna cut it when you're getting doubled just about every play.
So, it's Mattison's fault? And now he's the DC at Ohio State? Conclusion, OSU made a big mistake hiring him and doom looms on the horizon.
Sweet.
Yeah really. 6'5" with a 38 inch vertical definitely wreaks of "DOG!!!". The very strong indicator is that he was out there doing what the coaches and schemes dictated. The truth is that sometimes it is more difficult to perform at a lower level of play than a higher one. If you all believe that Gary was not game-planned for, big-time, by the opposition...then you would likely refuse water while hiking across the Sahara.
And the next time a national sports journalists has a clue with regards to the specifics of a player like this...will likely be a first. There is a lot more to the game than stat sheets.
April 30th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Your thinking is that opposition coaches who, only seeing Gary once a year, were able to stymie him, in essence out coached the UM coaches who saw him daily? Or did UM coaches intentionally set Gary up for failure so that lessor players could shine?
What is interesting is that Rashan Gary's best year, his sophomore year, is little better than RVBs best year, his senior year. Not entirely true, Van Bergen had four pass break ups and three fumble recoveries in his senior season. Gary didn't have either, ever.
None of that means shit if you can't beat a fucking 3-star tackle and get to the QB.
In 2018 osu didn't double him ounce. DC's game planned for Winovich and Bush maybe but not gary. Maybe 2017 was different. I was surprised he's still being hyped.
Maybe Gary wasn't "that good" in the same way that Frank Clark wasn't "that good," and then he'll blow up in the NFL and make us question his motivation at Michigan or the ways he was used by Don Brown...
Who can say?
Whatever the case, he'll make a little dough on Sundays, Mondays, and Thursdays and make a name for himself, hopefully.
April 30th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^
He really only has one or two pass rush moves. In the NFL he can practice a lot more and afford to work with specialist to help him. He'll be fine it just might take him a little bit to get up to speed.
Like Winovich did while in school at Michigan? Winovich worked his ass off to better himself as a player. He sought out help to improve his hand work, and took ballet lessons to improve his footwork and moves. Excuses as to why Gary didn't improve are unadulterated pap.
Does anyone know what a good win rate is? I have no grid for this stat...
If a person claims they are "winning" they automatically are, even if they are completely not winning at all by any metric.
That is how I measure it.
We'll have so much winning that we'll get BORED with winning!
See, like right there, now you are automatically winning. You don't even have to worry about whether you win or not anymore. Well done.
Gary sat behind an extremely deep and talented DLine his Frosh year and was injured for half of his junior year. Not enough reps for Gary to shine to the level Scouts wanted him to.
I think Gary will be just fine in the NFL
Too logical, try again!
The only valid criticism I heard about Gary during the draft was that he just didn't take over games. His lack of dominance.
That doesn't have anything to do with his "win rate" stat.
Because he just isn’t super good at it. I don’t understand why we can’t just call a spade a spade and accept he wasn’t elite like we all hoped for him to be. I also love his take of “I played out of position at Michigan”. Nice, blame your lack of production on the coaching staff, not that you had one move all through college and it was just try and run up field past the tackle. I’ll root for many other guys from Michigan that got drafted this year over Rashan.
I think I have been a little bit puzzled because, at least to my recollection, Gary flashed as a all-purpose hell raiser when he was on the field as a true freshman. It appeared the guy was going to be unblockable, and then all of the sudden he...... wasn't that anymore. I guess a lot of that could be injury, but the injury allegedly was hampering him all the way back to his second season, so I guess I don't get why a surgical solution was not pursued after that season was over (or even before that). Just a confusing career at Michigan.
He did don some legendary eye-black, so there will always be that component.
I have the same recollection. I think the consensus was that he was going to be a massively disruptive force once he matured just a little bit.
And if we're honest, that never happened. I'm not saying he was a bust, but he didn't live up to 1/2 the hype he got in HS and his frosh year at Michigan. In fact, I think the D would have been just fine without him.
Still, I hope he does well in the NFL. I just won't be surprised if he's not a star.
I agree with you Hatter. I expected from Gary performances like what Bosa gave OSU or what Christian Wilkens or Dexter Lawrence gave Clemson.
Still super super happy to have Gary a Wolverine...heck my pic with him is my avatar...but he just wasn't the absolute freak on the field we had hoped for. I think my expectations were too high. I expected him to be an All Time Great / Top 5 ever on D for Michigan.
Not sure why he never received surgery either. It just seemed to be the most obvious of the solutions to the problem, just bite the bullet and do it.
Mo Hurst Might have had something to do with that.
“I played out of position at Michigan”
Which is true... he should have been playing 3T - but the rumor is that HE didn't want to play there.
Rashan didn’t have the bulk or lower body strength to play the 3T. Plus, he is very athletic and ran what a 4.5 in the 40? You don’t stick a guy like that at the 3T, he played DE and had lots of opportunities to rush the passer, he just wasn’t very good at it.
I'm pretty sure I read an insider say coaches asked him to play some DT, and he didn't want to.
Wait, did he really say that? If I remember correctly, wasn't he promised prior to his commitment that he wouldn't be moved inside and would be allowed to play DE?
Unfortunate phrasing there, spade-man.
What?
"Win rate" feels like a results-based metric that seems to be context-free. Gary isn't a particularly great pass rusher (and really wasn't all that great coming out of HS), but he's a great athlete and a good run stopper, and I could see him succeeding in the pros if put in the right situation. Not sure if that's in GB, but we'll see.
I do think one should wonder about just how much work was put into this article when the author claims there's a 43rd pick in Round 1.
Ha! I saw that too.
Why was the author not a better writer?
Can we stop taking away from Winovich’s play while talking about Gary? Even when Gary was out, Winovich was more impactful than Gary ever was. Gary is more athletic than Winovich and may turn out to be a better pro, but Winovich was a better and more impactful college player.
Agreed. Winovich was the better player. And by no small margin.
Gary is an extremely gifted athlete.
In terms of pass rushing, his technique leaves a lot to be desired. The evidence seems to suggest that he is not a student of the game-- there seems to have been little to no progress in terms of adding different types of moves to his pass rushing repertoire, it's hard to pick out a game where it's obvious that he studied the opposing linemen and picked up on tendencies that allowed him to abuse one of them, etc.
There is precedent for great atheletes to excel in the NFL when they haven't put up big numbers in college, and there is precedent for such athletes to be busts. I would not have spent a #12 pick on him, and I certainly would not have spent a #12 with the idea of him being some sort of pass-rushing monster; but I will not be shocked if it turns out to be a good pick. I just think it's unnecessarily risky, as I believe there were other picks available that have less probability of being busts. If Green Bay was dead-set on a pass-rushing DE, I think trading down 5-7 picks and getting Montez Sweet plus an extra third or fourth round pick from the trade would have been much less risky.
Summary:
Lots of raw talent, but needed to be coached... he didn't want to be coached so he did it his way. Now he'll live or die by his talent, and/or willingness to be coached at the pro level.
Good luck to him!
I agree with the sentiment here, super athlete but career was less than what we ALL thought it was going to be. If that was injury, position, style of play..whatever..a lot of times he wasnt as seen on the field as others
BUT with him going to full time OLB I think he is going to cause some serious havoc
Obviously because his coach was a traitor
We all wonder this. Is the anchor role in our defense more focused on stopping the run? Is Gary limited in his pass rush moves as the NFL draft experts purport? Was he doubled more than others? Was his injury the problem his senior year? Is it a bit of all of the above?
I think he showed a good deal of athleticism to recover inside and make plays against the run, but if I am being honest I did not see a whole lot of difference between how he and Winovich were utilized. I saw Gary and Winovich trying to get downhill on basically every snap, with Winovich just being able to do so more often.
Obviously the athleticism and size is there. So, do you attribute that more to lack of moves, not as good of fundamentals, or lack of effort?
But even in obvious pass rush situations Chase was way more effective at getting to the QB. Uche had almost as many sacks last year as Rashan did for his career, I believe.
Maybe should've been a DT?
No, this would be a waste, imo. He should be a DE/Edge, no matter what scheme he is in. In Green Bay's 3-4, I think they'd be smart to use him as a 4i on Standard Downs and stand him up to rush on Passing Downs.
Gary was a really good pass rusher when his mind was pass rush first. You can see him start out playing the run on a lot pass plays where it wasn't an obvious passing situation, which I think comes from what the Anchor is asked to do.
You can see what I'm talking about if you watch this highlight video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF0IWdfLRIY
At 0:18, it's 2nd & 7 - offense is not behind schedule, so he's probably asked to play run first. Gary's alignment, get off, and attack show he was playing the run off the snap, until he saw Weber to know that Barrett still had the ball, at which point he sheds and attacks the QB. In contrast, if you watch Taco on the backside of the play, he is playing the pass from the snap.
At 2:13, it's 2nd & 15 - offense is behind schedule, clear passing down. He's aligned wider and his get off is pure speed rush. He blows by his man and forces an errant throw.
Another good illustration is the first play here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfCnrEmJ62o
It's the first snap of the Penn State game last year. Rashan is actually not lined up as the Anchor here, he's the End. Because he's not playing Anchor, even though it's 1st and 10, he's on the backside and flies off the ball right into his pass rush. Penn State had a quick hitter dialed up, but McSorley had to take a shot to get the ball out.
While a lot of things went into Rashan's "lack of production" at Michigan (this is very stupid to me, as it suggests that everything a DL can contribute is recorded in the box score), no one factor was bigger than his positional responsibilities, and how it affected his play on Standard Downs.
This was my recollection of his time at Michigan as well, therefore, I agree with this post and upvote it!
Doc, it's difficult to talk real football to folks who obsess about fantasy football. It's obvious from listening to Don Brown, and actually watching and understanding the film and defensive concepts, that Rashan Gary did what he was asked to do as an anchor. Here's some links to back up your info.