Was Brian right about the football-basketball dichotomy? (The first step of an investigation.)
On MGoPodcast 14.18: Daddy's Sports Words, in the wake of a men's basketball loss to Purdue, Brian lamented the fact that the Michigan football and men's basketball programs could never seem to be good at the same time.
"I mean, it's like, you know? Can't have everything. As soon as one thing gets good, the other thing goes in the trash... It's the football-basketball dichotomy; they can't be good at the same time... You get the one year, and then something blows up."
–– BPONE Brian (01-29-23)
Seth pointed out that both programs were good in the early days of his fandom, but Brian countered that the Fab Five's success led to Michigan's string of four-loss football seasons from 1993 to 1996.
I Want To Do My Own Investigation
I want to do my own investigation in order to prove Brian's thesis true or false. The first thing I need to determine is: "What defines a good Michigan football/men's basketball season?"
I thought I'd start by asking this question to the community at large, since "goodness" can be defined very differently from fan to fan, especially, I imagine, for Michigan fans: some might only say a football season is good if we run the table in the Big Ten, while others might be okay with multiple losses; some might say a basketball season is only good based on a deep NCAA tournament run, and others might be okay with a two seed getting bounced in the Round of 32.
Here are my rough criteria for what makes a "good" season in each sport:
FOOTBALL
- Double-digit win total (bowl game included)
- Top 12 finish in AP poll
- Beat MSU and lose competitively to OSU OR lose in an annoying way to MSU (annoying like 2021 or 2015, not annoying like 2014) and beat OSU
- General good vibes about the state of the program
BASKETBALL
- Sweet 16 appearance
- Top 20 finish in AP poll
- Top 4 seed in Big Ten Tournament OR Big Ten Tournament Champions
- General good vibes about the state of the program
What do you think about these criteria?
Are they too harsh? Are they too forgiving? Am I missing some stuff? Do I need to remove some stuff? Is it possible to have an objective answer about this?
Any and all feedback is welcome so that I can go ahead and create an "objective" checklist for "goodness," and get to work proving or disproving Brian's theory from the BPONE.
February 28th, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^
Seasons that end with championships (any kind, really) are good seasons.
February 28th, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^
Is men's basketball 1991-92 a good year? They didn't win anything, not even the Big Ten, but lost in the national title game. (EDIT: To be more clear, I should've written, "They didn't win any championships," rather than "anything.)
(EDIT: This is a comment for all you socks out there who read this comment and immediately think, "Kyle's an idiot! He thinks 91-92 was a bad year because they didn't win anything!?" Of course I think it was a good year. That's why I'm questioning Putingrad. I think his criteria for a good year ["win a championship"] is too restrictive.)
February 28th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
GTFO with that Sparty argument. Going to the national championship is “winning something.”
February 28th, 2023 at 6:52 PM ^
Huh? Who are you quoting? Putingrad said "seasons that end with championships".
Also, "going" to the national championship is only "winning something" if you count the games beforehand. Like... what even is your argument?
February 28th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
They won the South regional title, if you’re really that hung up on it.
But something tells me that this isn’t the real issue you have with that team.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:04 PM ^
I don't have an issue with that team. Per my criteria, that was a "good" season. I asked Putingrad the question because his criteria ("win a championship") is too restrictive for me. That's why I brought up 1991-92. Obviously, a great year, even if they didn't win a championship.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:50 PM ^
Sparties will say "the Fab Five never won anything" and then trot out the "All players that have stayed 4 years under Izzo have been to a Final Four" stat (dont know if thats true anymore, but at one point it was).
February 28th, 2023 at 8:55 PM ^
" Going to the national championship is “winning something.”
I've been saying for years that the narrative of the Fab Five never winning anything because they lost the Natty twice is some high level dumb shit but I've never been able to get enough people on board because it's a common way of thinking for sports fans.
Winning is hard. Winning a single game elimination tournament is even harder. This is one area where the NBA has a leg up, the best team may lose one game but not 4 out of 7.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:38 PM ^
I honestly believe that the idea a team who qualifies for the championship game of its sport "didn't win anything" might be the dumbest argument or hot take I've ever heard. Ever.
You win a Final Four banner to hang in your crib. Not that we’ve seen the Fab Five’s banners in a while, but that’s a different story. They did win them, though.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:05 PM ^
Is men's basketball 1991-92 a good year? They didn't win anything
Are you serious? Do you question whether 2012-13 and 2017-18 were good years, too?
Making the Final Four is an amazing accomplishment, period.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:21 PM ^
I don't know if he's serious -- I don't buy it -- but it was a standard talking about the Fab Five, that they never won anything (apparently the Rainbow Classic doesn't count either). When Juwan got a NBA ring when he was about 40 years old, it was widely reported that was the first time any of the Fab Five had won a championship.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:17 PM ^
Yeah, it was something that Fab Five haters desperately clung to. As though winning five consecutive NCAA tournament games and playing for the national title is some kind of failure.
But for one of our fans to do this?
February 28th, 2023 at 9:32 PM ^
How many more times do I have to write in the comments of this thread that I thought 1991-92 was an incredibly good year for that tiny piece of info to get through your incredibly thick skull?
February 28th, 2023 at 9:06 PM ^
Of course I'm not serious! That's why I asked the question! The guy commented that you had to win a championship, so I asked him about 1991-92, which is OBVIOUSLY a good year.
Like, holy hell, guys. Apparently you question someone else's opinion in the comments and it suddenly becomes your opinion? How does that make sense?
February 28th, 2023 at 9:44 PM ^
Wait, Kyle, are you saying you think 1991-1992 was a GOOD year??
In all seriousness, while the Fab Five lost the game(s) in the end, they may be the most enduring college basketball team of my lifetime.
Duke won a title against them, yet when Michigan played Arizona State earlier this year, I mentioned to someone it'd be nice to get "a measure of payback" on Hurley. Had to explain the significance for about a full minute...
"their coach is Bobby Hurley."
"..."
"...Duke beat Michigan for the title in 92."
"..."
"Bobby Hurley went to Duke..."
"..."
"...and was the point guard on their team."
"THAT guy?!?"
February 28th, 2023 at 9:52 PM ^
If I'm being honest, Rob, I probably would've been the same as the "..." guy, seeing as I was in utero when Hurley and Duke beat Michigan in the national title game. You humble me with your references. I'll have to up my game.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:57 PM ^
Exactly. But the "..." guy (and you) knows the Fab Five and can name at least three of those players, despite only being a couple years old at the time. Didn't have a clue who Hurley was, and I bet even Christian Laettner doesn't register for most people under 30 or so. Once the Dream Team ended, he had several journeyman years in the NBA.
You got to remember that most of the people here went to one of our public indoctrination centers that turn out mind numbed robots that can’t think
February 28th, 2023 at 10:34 PM ^
A Final Four is a championship.
You win your Regional among the best basketball teams in the country.
You cut down nets, you get confetti and a trophy from the NCAA that looks a lot like the National Championship trophy, and of course a banner.
Because it's a championship.
Nobody in their right mind would forsake a Final Four for a Big Ten championship or a Big Ten tournament championship.
Enough with the Fab Five never won anything crap.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
1989! 🤷♂️
February 28th, 2023 at 9:22 PM ^
My freshman year! I wish I bought 40 of what might be the greatest M tee shirt ever produced. Rose Bowl champs on the front and the “As if that weren't enough” script on the back with the hoops national championship.
I have one. It’s a little worn out. I never wear it but noticed its turned into one of my daughter’s night shirts.
February 28th, 2023 at 10:39 PM ^
How did it take this long for this year to come up?
I had a “Triangle of Champions” t-shirt from 1989 connecting Pasadena, Seattle, and Ann Arbor.
85-86 was a good year.
Michigan Football Beat ND and OSU. Beat Nebraska in the Fiesta bowl and ended up ranked #2.
Basketball won the big 10 and ended up ranked #5. Upset in the tournament though
Jim Harbaugh and Roy Tarpley were the star players
February 28th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
My criteria
Football
Beat ohio state + MSU + win 8 games--> ok season
Beat ohio state or MSU + win the big ten--> good season
Beat ohio state + MSU + win the big ten + win playoff game--> great season
Beat Ohio state or MSU or both + win big ten + win national championship--> historic season
Basketball
Split MSU + make NCAA tourney--> ok season
Split MSU + win BTT or Big ten regular season--> good season
Split MSU + make final 4 --> great season
win national championship with/without any previous combo --> historic season
February 28th, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
this criteria only applies to an established HC in their 4th+ season just to clarify. Any combo below the OK season criteria= trash season
February 28th, 2023 at 6:48 PM ^
Beating OSU, MSU and winning the conference equaling only a good season seems ridiculous to me. I don’t think you could convince many people that 2021 was not a GREAT season. I don’t think I’d say 2022 wasn’t a great season.
Each season exists with its own set of expectations and the context of a season changes as it goes on. 2023’s expectations are not the same as 2022 or 2021. If we repeat the last two seasons this year, I’m sure many will be disappointed.
February 28th, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
Each season exists with its own set of expectations and the context of a season changes as it goes on. 2023’s expectations are not the same as 2022 or 2021. If we repeat the last two seasons this year, I’m sure many will be disappointed.
I agree with you here, and it's what keeps anything from being objective with this "project." Hoping to avoid that and get as objective as we possibly can.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:23 PM ^
so this criteria is for when the playoff expands to 12 teams. I think it should be expeceted that you make the playoff 3/5 seasons therefore making the playoff wont have as much meaning as it does now but winning a playoff game gives you a bowl victory. Also regarding good/great criteria all i meant by that is how much pressure a coach has following the season. A great season buys you more time if say you struggle the year after
February 28th, 2023 at 7:19 PM ^
Basketball
Split MSU
While MSU is the biggest basketball rivalry, it's not to the point where it makes or breaks the season. No single game in the regular season is that important in basketball.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
MSU basketball rivalry i think is very important to your future success. We both recruit the state of michigan pretty heavily and one player in basketball can make or break your season. Too many recruiting battles between both schools and not much talent in the state makes this game an important one for that reason. But i do agree regular season CBB games are mostly meaningless
February 28th, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^
1989 was pretty pretty good.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
1997-98 (the year before I started at M) was pretty great too: football national champs, basketball Big 10 tournament champs & 3-seed, hockey national champs
Then I arrived and the football team started a miserable 0-2 and the basketball began their descent into trawling the depths of hell
February 28th, 2023 at 9:51 PM ^
Although starting in 1997 gave me completely unrealistic expectations for the next 25 years.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:04 PM ^
Football. Beat Ohio State. Full stop. The rest will take care of itself. It's easy to write/say 1-11, but a win over Ohio State would be a successful season, but that's not reality. If your team is good enough to beat Ohio State given their consistent elite recruiting, you're going to be 8-4 at worst, most likely.
Basketball. B1G regular season champs = success. B1G tournament champs plus Sweet 16 or better = success. No championships, but Elite 8 appearance, probably a successful season, but depends. Final 4 = always a success.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:59 PM ^
elite 8 is “probably successful?”
February 28th, 2023 at 9:48 PM ^
There are a lot of MGoPosters who really don’t pay attention to our second biggest sport.
Yes.
It is probably a successful season when Michigan makes an Elite 8 appearance without an accompanying regular season or conference tournament championship. I concede this point mostly theoretical. For example, it's possible to make a Regional Final playing teams that are exclusively inferior/lower seeds. Teams, on occasion, make Elite 8 runs without winning a single game against another Top 20 team in the first 3 rounds. Then, they finally face a top team and get eviscerated.
I cannot imagine any circumstances in which a Final Four appearance would not automatically translate into a successful season, regardless of expectations or caliber of previous tournament opponents.
I know I'm picking nits. I'm certainly not trying to start an argument; just sharing a theoretical opinion.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:16 PM ^
At least it's a different spin cycle in this machine your running.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
MSU has no long term impact on my views of the season (it sure does hurt/feel great in the moment). OSU is another level of high/low... ND used to feel that way, but it has faded without a regular trip to South Bend I suppose.
I'd set one bar at in the B10 race going into the OSU game, then the next level winning that game (regardless of conference outcome), and a final level of bringing home a title
February 28th, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
For basketball its cleaner. B10 regular season and BTT + s16 being roughly equivalent successes, then f4, then championship
February 28th, 2023 at 7:57 PM ^
Michigan football and basketball have both been “good” since 2015. They are relevant brands that play in big games, have good coaches, and contend for conference titles. To say that either have been “bad” during that time is to forget what “bad” looks like.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
y’all need to stop trotting out the ^&*(&%)* ‘BPONE” thing.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:36 PM ^
I agree, I'm so sick of the BPONE shit. It should be a punishable offense by now.
To answer the initial question from the OP, Brian is pretty much still spot on even down to football being in the Top 12 in football which will be the new cut-off for the CFP playoff. Dude is clairvoyant.
We are a tier 1 football school and a tier 2 basketball school, There will be cycles where their paths will cross-over. I've been a fan since the early 70's and I see no reason that will change until I die. I just want to see that 1000th win, I've been tracking that since the 90's. Can't fucking wait, this should be the year.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:36 PM ^
This may also depend on how old you are. I have been through extended down periods for both basketball and football. If basketball can advance to the Sweet 16 I am happy. I feel like the gap has closed and it is now more difficult to make it out of the first weekend of the tournament. Football lost to OSU for so long it was difficult to get excited about any season because we all knew the OSU buzz saw was waiting at the end.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:51 PM ^
We won the Big Ten Championship in both basketball and football in the 2021 calendar year, so yeah, I'd say 2021 was a good year.