Tuesday's Rooting Guide - Bubble Edition
Morning everybody! Big slate of games tonight but before we get to that, let's take a look at last night's mixed bag and where Michigan stands entering the day:
- Well, we had 4 games we were rooting interest in last night and we went 2 for 4. Really bummed that Iowa State couldn't hold it together. But boy did Baylor do us a solid. Oklahoma State is now 16-14 and likely needs to not only win at Texas Tech this weekend but also win a few at the Big 12 tourney. Nevada is also going to be an interesting case. In the few updates I've seen this morning, they're only 5-8 spots above the cut line after their Quad-3 loss last night. Far from safe. They'll be a team to watch this weekend and in the Mountain West tourney next week.
- Michigan's NET ranking did go up one spot from 55 to 54 overnight, right below Oregon and right ahead of Texas Tech.
- As of last night's update, we're on 6 brackets on Bracket Matrix. The thing to remember with Bracket Matrix is, it has some lag time. Meaning, brackets will take time to get updated and we're likely to continue to move up through Thursday. When they updated Sunday night, we were on 1. We're now on 6. I'd bet we'll be on 8-10 on their update today. One example of that, Jerry Palm updated his bracket just this morning and swapped us and Oklahoma State after their loss. I caution anyone saying other games don't matter to consider that. One game going our way could make the difference this year.
Alright, quite a few games of interest to us today. Let's dig in:
- Clemson (21-8, 13-5) at Virginia (21-6, 13-5) - (UVA by 6.5) - 7pm EST on ACC Network - Clemson has one of the more unusual resumes. They have a gaudy 21 wins but 4 of their 8 losses are Quad-3 or Quad-4 losses. Their current NET ranking is 60 and are right around the same place in the bubble Michigan is. We'd very much prefer they not get a Quad-1 road win tonight. Plus the Hoos owe us one after their loss to UNC this weekend.
- St. Louis (19-10, 11-5) at VCU (22-7, 13-2) - (VCU by 6) - 7pm on CBS Sports Network This is kind of an odd one but hear me out on this. Interestingly enough, Torvik has this as their most important game for Michigan today. I'd disagree with it being THAT important but it's important, for a different reason than most games on here. Put simply, we don't want the A-10 to be a bid-stealing league. The assumption is that VCU will win their conference tourney but if they don't, we want them as far off the bubble as possible. This would qualify as a Quad-3 loss for VCU. They already have 3 Quad-3 & 4 losses, a 4th would be a big hit to their potential bid-stealing resume.
- Texas Tech (16-13, 5-11) at Kansas (24-5, 12-4) - (KU by 9) - 9pm on ESPN - Overall, the Big 12 has been very friendly to Michigan over the last 3-4 days. We want that to continue tonight. As mentioned earlier, Texas Tech is 1 behind Michigan on the NET ranking. Simply put, we want Texas Tech to lose this and lose it big. Can't afford them to get a road win like this. Go Jayhawks!
- San Diego State (23-5, 14-2) at Boise State (22-7, 12-4) - (Boise by 2.5) - 9pm on CBS Sports Network - So, I would likely rate this as our most important game tonight. Boise is just on the cutline on most brackets (both Lunardi & Palm have them as an 11). SDSU and the fighting Brian Dutcher's did us a solid over the weekend, let's do it again SDSU!
- Michigan State (17-11, 9-8) at Nebraska (15-14, 8-10) - (MSU by 3.5) - 9pm on BTN - No way around it, Nebraska might be the hottest team in college basketball right now. They've won 4 games in a row and 5 of their last 6 games. And Lincoln is always, always a tough venue. Look, we likely want MSU in this game because they are 32 in the NET rankings. Moving to 30 would give us another critical Quad-1 win. I refuse to bold them but sorry not sorry, I'm NOT rooting for Nebraska and I'll leave it at that.
- South Carolina (10-19, 3-13) at Mississippi State (19-10, 7-9) - (MSU by 16) - 9pm on the SEC Network - This has the feel of the North Carolina / FSU game last night. This game can't help Mississippi State but it sure could hurt them, in particular given it's a home game. Stranger things have happened but this game is going to be tough.
- Fresno State (10-18, 6-11) at New Mexico (20-9, 7-9) - (UNM by 8) - 10:30pm on FS1 - The Lobos are officially entering into the bracket danger zone. Heading into February they were 19-3 but finished February with a 1-6 record, with their only win against San Jose St. Losing to Fresno State at home would be a Quad-3 loss and likely a fatal hit to their resume. And this game isn't such a stretch, as Fresno beat UNM earlier in the season. Rooting for the Bulldogs here.
- As an added bubble bonus, Michigan opponents Lipscomb, CMU (ugh), Ohio U, Ft. Wayne, and EMU are playing tonight. A victory or two from that group couldn't hurt.
Certainly lots of intriguing games and match-ups tonight. Thanks for reading, Go Blue!
February 28th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Bubble time is fun time.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
Love these!
Thanks a ton!
GO BLUE!!
February 28th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
I'm rooting for Nebraska. I can support the bolded teams.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
I can appreciate that. The opposite is a tough ask ;)
February 28th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
If Nebraska keeps winning, they could move from a Q3 win to a Q2 win for Michigan. They're ranked #92 right now in NET (top 75 home win is a Q2). It would obviously look better to have another Q1 win with MSU winning, but also not a bad thing if Nebraska won.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Seems like we need to have a winning record for the remaining games (regular season and BTT).
Go 1-1 for the last two games, then we probably need two wins in the BTT to finish 3-2 in the last 5 games.
Go 2-0 for the remaining season, we could probably survive getting knocked out of the BTT and end with a 2-1 record.
Finish the regular season 0-2, we probably need the 3 wins in the tournament, if not winning it all.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Going to disagree slightly on this. I personally think 2 wins in whatever fashion will get it done, UNLESS one of those two wins is over Minnesota. Outside of that, I think 2 is enough.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
If we win one this week, I think one BTT win is sufficient. Beating either Illinois or IU would not only be our 4th Q1 win (with MSU and Pitt possibly joining them) but our third Q1 away win, which the committee pays attention to. Get that done, and I think we'll be on the right side of the bubble.
Then, you just have to tread water. 1-1 in the BTT is fine, and possibly boosts us slightly more if the win is Q1.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
"I'm forever blowing bubbles..."
Thanks again. Good stuff.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
Great stuff.
I fear that Virginia is dropping off a bit to end the year. They were objectively bad last season and this year the ACC has been pretty bad that it may have obfuscated what is a somewhat-mediocre team. They just don't play elite enough defense to cover for what is a bad offense, and since February started their 4 wins were by a combined 25 points (and 13 of them came in one game) and their 3 losses (including one to woeful BC) were by a combined 29. They play a lot of close-ish games and they aren't winning them as much as they used to and this feels like a game where Clemson may steal a big win and the Hoos give another middling ACC team life.
Still feels like the A-10 is a 1-bid league but, yeah, if VCU doesn't win the league there will be some sweating going on. I do get a sense that most of their bracket math is based on the assumption they win the conference; their profile looks like an NIT team more than a bid stealer.
TT feels like a zombie in that they're 5-13 in Q1+2 games and are going to finish well below .500 in the Big 12 but absolutely are in consideration and probably are still in discussion even if they lose to Kansas. The Big 12 in general is starting to get the SEC football vibes in which there's never a bad loss and there are only good wins because of circular logic and not because the 7th-best team in the conference is actually good.
Boise is a weird team because they look like a solid lock for the tournament; they are 9-5 in Q1+2 games and other than two early-season losses to top-150 teams they've been really good against the Q3-4 squads. Hell, their resume doesn't look that dissimilar than half the Big 12 teams that are locks for top-5 seeds. But yeah, hopefully SDSU (who are locked into the tourney) keep up the winning.
The past couple of years it feels like MSU gets ordained a tourney team and the presumption continues regardless of their actual on-court performance. That loss to Iowa was crazy but MSU also shot something like 80% from 3 (and that's a game after shooting 48% from 3 and 95% from the line to beat IU). Nebraska is a tough team and don't look now but could finish the year 10-10 if they beat MSU and then upset the Hawkeyes on the road, extremely doable given how well they're shooting. If MSU winning this game and vs. OSU got them to the top-30 per NET that would be great but that feels a bit like fool's gold. I guess I'm rooting for MSU but if Nebraska won and Tom Izzo had his usual conniption and blamed the loss on flight lag or weak WiFi I wouldn't mind it.
Mississippi St. is going to win against South Carolina but man would it be fun if they lost; that's a team with a thin resume that can't afford a hiccup anywhere.
New Mexico may be on the outside looking in right now. MW will get a couple of teams in but earlier in the year it looked like 4-5 and now it's probably closer to 2-3 (both Boise and Nevada are on the 11-seed lines).
February 28th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Great recap, Bronx. I ran some different scenarios on Torvik that I bet you'd find interesting:
- Clemson's chances to make the tourney if they win today: 50.4%. Drop to 12.2 if they lose.
- Texas Tech: 16% if they win today, .6% if they lose (yikes)
- Mississippi State: 81.6% if they win, 51.5% if they lose (ultimate nothing to gain game)
- New Mexico: 5.8% if they win, 1.9% if they lose (again, not a lot to gain tonight)
- Boise State: 91.5% if they win, 76.4% if they lose
Tells me Clemson, Mississippi State, Boise, and Texas Tech are my focus today and not so much New Mexico.
For those that are curious, our chances go up to 67.4% if we win on Thursday. If we lose....yikes, 8.9% but a lot can change between now and Thursday. Those numbers will move around a bit.
February 28th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
Interesting stuff about Clemson - I agree their gaudy top-line numbers make them seem more of a lock than they are, especially since a whopping 6 of their 13 conference wins are against KenPom 195+ teams. That's basically playing Minnesota every 3rd game, and they still found a way to lose to Louisville and BC along the way.
Mississippi St and Boise feel like they're more locked in than the other bubble-ish teams. But knocking TT off and Clemson out of the picture would be great.
Again, great work on these posts.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Go.. Cavaliers, Billikins, Jayhawks, Gamecocks, and Bulldogs....
P.S. Thanks again, TB9, great stuff...
February 28th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
No possible way VCU gets an at-large. They have zero q1 wins and 2 q4 losses. They aren't within striking distance.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
You're probably right. Figured it wouldn't hurt to include that one.
February 28th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
Yeah, and seems like you have to include it if Torvik has it as the highest leverage game for us, I'm just shocked that's the case for their model.
February 28th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
I'm sorry but rooting for MSU in just about anything is VERY difficult for me. I mean I used to be able to do it - back in 87 I wore all green & white to my brother's Rose Bowl party (his ex wife and daughter went to State) but since Dantonio arrived, there has been so much hate directed at Michigan from them those days are long gone.
Neighbor who hates you and wishes you would move or die (17-11, 9-8) at Nebraska (15-14, 8-10) - (NWHYAWYWMOD by 3.5).
Sorry cant root for neighbor.
February 28th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
We're not necessarily rooting for MSU so much as we are rooting for Michigan to get another Q1 win.
If Pitt wants to break through the NET top 50, that's fine too.
February 28th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Could it be rooting for Nebraska to lose?
February 28th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
I actually like Nebrasketball - they're fun to watch. I'll enjoy it if they do win.
But, duty calls.
February 28th, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^
I’m rooting for Nebraska and think they will have a fine victory today. Their team is hit and their arena will be rocking.
Watching MSU unravel is just too much fun. I prefer to take our chances that we won’t need MSUs help.
February 28th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
Dude, you may have to stop before I lose all interest in any after-work activity until after selection Sunday. LOL
I'm watching more college basketball than ever before (outside of when UM is in the tournament) and actually being very interested in the outcome of these games.
Flipping between Baylor helping us, and ISU failing to help us, and actually caring about outcome of games I would never care about or watch is a unique experience for me.
While I and most UM fans would prefer to be solidly in the tournament and interested in seeding only, these rooting guides at least give me a way to enjoy the ride on bubble watch.
February 28th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
lol sorry?
But seriously, it almost has the feel of fantasy football for me. All of the individual rooting interests and what not. It makes for a fun ride but agree, it takes quite a bit of time for sure!
February 28th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
Again, I appreciate the update and all you put in to these. But root for MSU!?
February 28th, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
I believe Vito Corleone once said... "That I cannot do." A link follows....
February 28th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
Ah. Marion Cobretti. Once of the long list of forgotten Stallone tough guys, along with Raymond Tango.
February 28th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Great update as usual. Bit of nitpick - wouldn't the non-VCU winner of the A10 tournament be the bid stealer? My understanding of it is that the team who wouldn't otherwise qualify is the bid stealer.
Either way, agree that we only want one A10 team getting in. As someone else pointed out, VCU probably doesn't have an at-large quality resume right now anyway so that's good.
February 28th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
You could argue either one is the bid stealer (because VCU is the one taking the at-large that would have otherwise been an auto) but no way VCU gets an at large, I don't think.
February 28th, 2023 at 5:08 PM ^
Ah, makes sense. I recall the A10 did have a "bid thief" last year: Richmond beat Dayton in the A10 semifinal, then literally took their spot by winning the A10 tournament (Dayton was announced as the first team out).
February 28th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Go Billikens!
February 28th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
Torvik has the outcome of the St. Louis at VCU game causing an 11.7% swing in our tournament chances. Something definitely feels off with the data on that one...
February 28th, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^
Yea, it's interesting Spankie, I messaged the guy that runs Torvik about that. He said a lot of times, for Bubble teams, the rooting guide can get a little twitchy but it's something I like to keep an eye on.
February 28th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
Yeah, I’ve been noticing that as well. That’s why I like coming to your posts for the truth of these matters!
February 28th, 2023 at 6:52 PM ^
I still can’t understand why people are so certain Michigan State is safely in.
They could easily end up 18-14.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:11 PM ^
When Iowa is on they are so incredibly hard to stop
February 28th, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^
Agreed. They are a team I would VERY much like to avoid.
February 28th, 2023 at 8:39 PM ^
Did anyone else catch the BTT seeding ‘if the season ended right now’ during this IU-Iowa game? It was completely wrong. Who had that job? MSU the 6. UM the 8.
For the B1G standings, Tuesday's results mean:
2-0 is 1st, 2nd or 3rd, can no longer fall to 4th now that Indiana lost to Iowa
1-1 between 2 and 6
0-2 is 7, 8, or 9