Tournament Chances
I'm curious what people think. Are we in already no matter what? Do we need one win of any kind to be safe? 2? Personally, I think if we beat Nebraska we're in no questions asked. We'd be .500 in a tough league plus two great non-conference wins and no bad losses across the whole schedule.
If we lose both games this week though, I think we're in trouble and the first BTT game could be do-or-die against a similarly situated team like Rutgers or Indiana. It's a softer bubble than usual this year and we might have done enough already, but in the past, the committee has been harsh on bubble teams that end on a losing streak (our 2006 team comes to mind). I know Nebraska stinks and I'm probably thinking way too much here, but needing to win any single conference game always scares me.
100%
Maybe like 99.99% if Michigan lost out, would probably need to lose BIG to drop far in NET, and then a LOT of bid stealers won their conf tournaments, but yeah, there is a reason Brennan moved Michigan to lock status after the Purdue win. It would literally take something truly crazy for them to not make it.
Beating Nebraska does indeed move it to a hard 100%.
Beat Nebraska and it doesn't matter. Lose out and it gets a little hairy but probably 60-40 to still get in (and honestly being a 12 seed with a play in game might be preferable to the 8/9 seed line)
We are in no matter according to the "bracketologists". The bubble is very big this year they say in general.
But it'd sure be nice to just take care of crappy Nebraska this week so we don't have to think about it (and obviously improve our seeding for the upcoming tourneys)
Beat Nebraska and they're in. No questions asked. Even if they lose out, I'd say they're a 9 or 10 seed. At absolute worst, they're a 12 seed and have to play a play-in game.
They don't have a single bad loss on the resume, and plenty of good looking wins. Two top ten wins over Gonzaga and Creighton, top-25 wins over Iowa and MSU, and Rutgers. Heck, even the Indiana win is starting to look better by the day.
They would have a bad loss if they lose out, Nebraska @ home
If we lose out, I think we'll get dropped. A win in any remaining game though should get us dancing.
I think we are locked into the tournament, but I’m still disappointed with this past week. We had gotten the Livers bump from the pollsters and were approaching protected seed territory. I know that Brooks being out was a contributing factor, but man what a shitty time to no-show a game. Coaches, players, everybody was asleep at the wheel. Learning experience for Howard. They took that game for granted and they are going to pay big time on the seed line.
Meh, the team is inconsistent and somewhat lacking in talent. Get the down swing out of the way before the games that really count start.
There is something to be said for peaking at the right time, very true.
Yeah, I'm bummed they lost their minds against Wisconsin. Win that and you're still in the hunt for a protected seed. Now they're looking at a meh 6-7 range that will provide a tough first test instead of a virtual free pass to the second round and coin flip for the sweet 16.
Not much you can do about banked threes on the road against a top 10 team. Except get Livers healthy.
That Wisconsin game was killer. It was a relapse to their Livers-less slump in January after we all thought they were past that. I know Brooks was out but the rest of the team was flat and just did not take care of business in a big home game. I was glad they played somewhat better and with some toughness against Ohio State on the road - but that's exactly why you don't games for granted at home. This team has left a lot on the floor (Crisler's floor) this year and its cost them a few seed lines. But I think if they can knock off a shaky Maryland team that might make up for the Wisconsin game. And more importantly it would give them a lot of momentum going into the tournaments.
We're in. Worst case scenario is being in an 8/9 game. Best case (winning out) probably a 4.
One hunnit puhcent.
We can’t have games where only two starters are a threat to score and one of them is Simpson. I don’t think Livers has a stretch like he did last week, and Brooks will get back to full health.
We need 8-10 3’s to drop a game in the first weekend to make it to the Sweet 16. Wagner is trending up and that is huge. The x-factor will be Teske. If he can somehow become a factor on offense this team could make a deep run, or if we play like we did for stretches last week we will be 1 and done.
ESPN has them in Greensboro! If they're in Greensboro, I'm taking the day off and heading there! Last time that happened was the second time Beilein took them to the tourney here in Charlotte. Blew Tennessee out of the stadium IIRC then lost the heartbreaker to Duke
"Basketball good". -Mongo
I mean, I assume they UM beats Nebraska. At that point they're in sorta regardless of what happens in the BTT.
We were a lock prior to our recent two-game losing streak, so, presumably, that remains unchanged. I think we'll just freefall in the seeding if we continue to lose. It's a bummer because going into the Wisconsin game we were on a 5-line.
In a season when North Carolina won’t make any pre-season tournament if it doesn’t win the ACC Tournament, when Dayton, San Diego State, Seton Hall and Florida State all could be considered for no worse than two-seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and when a month ago, Rutgers was 16-5 and looking at a four or five seed in the NCAA Tournament, but now is expected to be playing in the NIT, anything crazy could happen.
Thanks to the 7-0 start and the strength of the Big Ten, Isaiah Livers would have to be lost to illness or injury and Michigan would have to lose each of its next three games by an average of at least 20 points and thereby finish 18-14 and 9-12 in conference, on a five-game losing streak, in order to be headed to an NCAA “First Four” game or the NIT. After a five-game losing streak, the Wolverines’ resumé wouldn’t be great because (a) three of the four wins against currently ranked teams (11-Creighton, 2-Gonzaga and 18-Iowa) all came before December 7, 2019, (b) the record would be 11-14 since the end of November and (c) five of the losses would’ve been at home.
Beating Nebraska (2-16 in the Big Ten), but losing to first-place Maryland on the road and in a first-round game of the conference tournament, but not getting blown out in those losses, to finish 19-13 and 10-12 in conference might do no worse than drop Michigan’s seed to the 10 line in the NCAA Tournament.