Toughest Path to NCAA Title?
The difficulty of our region with Florida as the three seed got me thinking: if, other than Michigan's games, all remaining matchups play out according to seeding and Michigan wins the national title, would it be the most difficult path of all time? Here's what that path would be, with current Kenpom rankings included:
Round | Opponent | Kenpom Ranking |
---|---|---|
64 | SDSU | 102 |
32 | VCU | 16 |
16 | Kansas | 9 |
8 | Florida | 1 |
4 | Indiana | 3 |
Final | Louisville | 2 |
I'm guessing previous winners have had paths nearly that difficult, but this would be quite a murderer's row.
How often has a team had to beat three 1 seeds?
That's right. However, they also got the benefit of a 12 seed in the R32 and a 10 in the Elite Eight, so it's probably not an all-timer of a difficult path. Kenpom rankings unfortunately don't go earlier than 2003.
As others have noted, Arizona beat 3 #1's, but I'd argue that some of those mid-80s/early-90s gauntlets teams like NC State had to do (beating Houston and Virginia), givien how good teams were back then compared to now, seem more daunting. But yeah, UM going through 3 teams ranked #1 at some point of the year is pretty impressive.
It's cool, we're going to play FGCU in the Elite 8.
Every time I read "FGCU" I feel like I have offended someone and they are chirping back at me.
i heard somebody say "Feel Good College University" and now thats what they're called in my internal monologue
MSU will have a pretty tough path too.
Valpo: 62
Memphis: 40
Duke: 4
Louisville: 2
OSU: 5
Indiana 3 or Kansas 9 (or Florida 1)
your missing Michigan...
The op did say advance by seeding, so I left us out because we are 4th in our region. I only included florida because they are #1 in kenpom and are a potential opponent.
Valpo: 62
Memphis: 40
Duke: 4
Louisville: 2
OSU: 5
Michigan 8 Indiana 3 or Kansas 9 (or Florida 1)
Hypothetical since they'll never get past the last obstacle.
What makes this year unique is that we would have also played a good 5 seed (#16 in Kenpom) and a fantastic 3 seed (#1 in Kenpom), along with the potential one seeds being #2 and #3 according to Kenpom.
If you look at the 1997 Arizona team that went through three 1-seeds, their path is significantly easier because they benefitted from low-seeded teams early on and in the elite eight. Unless Florida loses to FGCU (obviously very unlikely), we're very unlikely to see anyone outside of the Kenpom top 10 the rest of the way.
While I am not sure about all time, it's relatively easy to estimate the relative levels of difficult for getting to the Championship game this year.
Assuming for a second that we beat Kansas, we then face the winner of Florida and FGCU. Getting past this, it would be either Indiana, Syracuse, Marquette or Miami in the Final Four.
It's pretty interesting if you use the simulated matchups (which "play" these games in isolation) on Massey's site. The easiest path would give us about a 1 in 3 (32.054%, to be more precise) shot at getting to the Championship Game (Kansas, then FGCU, then Marquette to advance). The hardest path would give us less than a 1 in 10 shot, or more precisely, a 9.80% chance (beat Kansas, but then Florida and Indiana).
If it came down to us Louisville, for the sake of discussion, Massey gives us a 31% chance against Louisville, but we would be a slight favorite against, say, Arizona (60%). Taking it out to the possible matchups from the other regions, right now, Michigan would have about a 1 in 5 shot at winning it all (roughly, based on rough figuring) along the easier paths.
Lots of probabilities of independent events and such, but the chances aren't insignificant certainly.
Since 1998 (don't ask why history begins here),
The toughest successful runs TO the final four have been:
1) 2006 - George Mason - 6, 3, 7 1 seeds
2) 2000 - Wisconsin - 9, 1, 4, 6
2000 - Florida - 12, 4, 1, 3
2011 - VCU 6, 3, 10, 1 (also had the play-in game)
The easiest runs include:
1) 2001 MSU - 16, 9, 12, 11
2) 2008 Kansas - 16, 8, 12. 10
3) 1999 Duke - 16, 9, 12, 6
4) 1999 MSU - 16, 9, 13, 3
March 26th, 2013 at 10:19 PM ^
Michigan would face either: 13, 5,1,3 or 13, 5, 1, 15
Here are the paths 4 seeds that have made the final 4 faced:
2012 Louisville - 13, 5, 1, 7
2011 Kentucky - 13, 5, 1, 2
2006 LSU - 13, 12, 1, 2
2005 Louisville - 13, 5, 1, 7
1999 OSU - 13, 12, 1, 3
Only Kentucky face the 'by seed' path. The others had at least one game against a much lower than expected seed.
Looking at the path to the final 4, OSU has by far the easiest path. The highest seeded team they can face in their next two games would be a 6 seed.
I can appreciate what you're saying, but aren't all paths to the championship tough? With all of the parody in college basketball, the tournaments seeds don't really mean a whole lot unless it's a 1 vs. 16.
March 26th, 2013 at 10:04 PM ^
Agree, once you are left with 1-4 seeds you are talking the top 15 teams in the nation.
Everyone has a tough row to hoe.
March 26th, 2013 at 10:25 PM ^