Thursday's Rooting Guide - Bubble Edition
Well, it goes without saying, tonight is a pretty massive game. If we lose tonight, we almost certainly need to sweep the final 3 games on our schedule and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament. As user M-Dog put it best, 'Our tournament started last Saturday. Win and advance'.
Before we look at tonight's games, let's do a quick recap of last night and look at where Michigan stands entering the day:
- We had 7 games that were of interest to Michigan last night and we got 4 to go our way. In particular, Wake Forest & New Mexico losing helped quite a bit
- Michigan's NET ranking stayed the same at 62.
- Not many bracket changes this morning to report
Nice set of games tonight, let's dig in:
- Penn State at Ohio State (OSU by 2) - 6:30pm EST on FS1 - This one pains me greatly but we want the Buckeyes to win this game, for a few reasons. In most brackets, Penn State is just ahead of us. Their NET ranking is currently 57. A loss to OSU would help us to potentially jump them. Plus OSU's NET ranking is currently 67. If they drop below 75, that win will move to a Quad-3 win. Man, I hate the Scarlet and Gray but they could do us a solid tonight.
- Memphis at Wichita State (Memphis by 2) - 7pm on ESPN2 - While Memphis is in the majority of brackets, they are far from safe yet. A loss to Wichita State would likely push their resume down a few slots. We're rooting for the Shockers here.
- Towson at College of Charleston (Charleston by 9) - 7pm on CBS Sports Network - This is a fascinating game, on multiple fronts. The Colonial Athletic Association has a decent chance to be a bid-stealing league this year. Both Hofstra and College of Charleston are playing great ball. Michigan would VERY much prefer the CAA to be a one-bid league. Towson played Charleston really tough a few weeks back, only losing by 2 points. This would qualify as a Quad-3 loss for Charleston and would be a big help. Go Tigers!
- North Texas at Charlotte - (UNT by 3) - 7pm on ESPN+ - Really wish this game was going to be easier to watch because it should be a fun one. Anyone that follows the NCAA tourney will likely recall the North Texas Mean Green. They knocked off 4 seed Purdue in the 2021 NCAA tourney. They're on a roll again, with one of the longer current win streaks in college basketball (they've won 8 in a row). Right now UNT is on the outside looking in but Charlotte could pretty much end that with a win tonight.
- THE game of the night is obviously Michigan at Rutgers - (Rutgers by 5.5) - 8:30pm on FS1 - Not much else to say here. In the wise words of Mitch McGary - WIN THE GAME!
- Northwestern at Illinois - (Illinois by 5.5) - 9pm on BTN - Man do those Northwestern wins look better and better each day! In fact, our home win against Northwestern is just 8 spots away from being an additional Quad-1 win, hence why we want them in this game. Plus, according to Illinois, we're their #1 rival. Go Cats!
- UCLA at Utah - (UCLA by 7) - 11pm on FS1 - Utah is another team that is flirting with the bubble. They have a nice overall record (17-11) however 10(!?) of those wins are against Quad-4 opponents. Their NET ranking is a few slots above Michigan, at 56. We can't afford them to get a big win over a top-10 team like UCLA. We want the Bruins.
So, there you have it. 7 games we'll want to focus on tonight. We're rooting for a number of underdogs tonight but the really good news is, if Michigan wins tonight, there isn't too much on here that will really hurt that much. Let's get that win at the RAC tonight! Go Blue!
February 23rd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Rutgers by 5.5 when 2 of their starters are down? That sounds like maybe too much? I know we suck, but i kind of like our chances, unless i am missing something.
February 23rd, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
Yeah, I don't understand that line either. Vegas must think we'll be delayed flying out.
February 23rd, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
2 of ours may be down as well. We haven't played well on the road.
February 23rd, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
Just win, baby! Take it to the RAC!
February 23rd, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
On Torvik's simulator, Michigan needs 4 wins to get in. Depending who those are, they can get off the play in lines. 3-1 right now looks like a 4 seed, potentially playing Rutgers in the 1st game of the BTT.
So beat Rutgers and Wisconsin, and split Illinois/Indiana and it's looking good.
February 23rd, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
Tonight's game is beyond huge if they want any real shot at getting in without having to win the B1G tourny. I'm sure the line is 5.5 due to our consistent inconsistency and the fact we've largely sucked on the road. I mean if you told me right now they win the game by 15 I wouldnt be surprised. And, if you told me the lost the game by 15 I wouldnt be surprised.
The way I see it OP if Michigan wins tonight your job is going to get a lot harder as the possibilities increase dramatically for us to get a bid. But if we lose you wont have much to do because not much else will matter.
February 23rd, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
Good stuff.
Michigan has to win tonight and then that sets up a huge game against Wisconsin. Rutgers is a tough team even with two starters out but the also lost to Nebraska the last time they played at home. Feels like a game that UM could steal if they can keep up the intensity on the boards. Reed and a potentially returning Williams would be huge.
February 23rd, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Here is an updated torvik rooting guide...... live update link. Michigan with 10% boost in BID% on the line tonight! I am no bball guru but that is a lot for this time of year. LETS GO!
February 23rd, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
Really interesting tool, had no idea this even existed. Thanks for sharing!
Kind of cool that the 19 most important games to our chances all went our way last night.
And agreed, a 10% increase this late in the season is massive!
February 23rd, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
So if I am reading this correctly yesterday plus a Rutger win today is a 23% boost to tourney hopes? Wow that is a crazy 48 hour jump.
EDIT: Cancel that it looks like we were 19-12 in equally weighted games yesterday.
February 23rd, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
Well the 10% is almost entirely due to the fact that Michigan is playing Rutgers, which is a chance for a quad 1 win (specifically 10.2% of that is due to this single game). Every other game listed by TB9 improves the bid% by only 0.7% each.
February 23rd, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
Go Blue!
And, it's great knowing which teams it's "easier" to root against. Thanks for the guide...
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend." So, there are a number of teams to root for tonight.
February 23rd, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
One note about yesterday's results - Wisconsin's win over Indiana pushed them into a Q1 loss instead of Q2. Now 2-10 in Q1 and 5-1 in Q2. Obviously Pitt, MSU and NU are lurking to give us extra Q1 wins.
February 23rd, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
I think OSU has folded up shop. They've shut down Key for the season. Someone else will have to beat PSU.
February 23rd, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
It really is like our Tourney has started. They’re not out of it. Win these next two and then we’ll probably be in Next Four Out potentially better based on other results.
February 23rd, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
I think if they win the next 2 they will be the first or second team out of the field. The bubble in insanely weak right now.
Michigan 17-12 (11-7), 3 (potentially 4) Q1 wins, 6-2 in their last 8, computer numbers climbing. If that happens the story going into the final week will be that Michigan needs to win one of their games in the final week and probably a big ten tournament game.
Of course this does not account for bid stealers, of which there will certainly be.
February 23rd, 2023 at 6:36 PM ^
Yeah agreed I misspoke think it would at least be First Four Out
February 23rd, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Bit of an interesting update for Memphis. One of their Sr. starting guards, Keonte Kennedy, has officially been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a broken hand. He's been averaging 9 ppg for Memphis. Tough loss for them, in particular with their place on the bubble.
February 23rd, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
As user M-Dog put it best, 'Our tournament started last Saturday. Win and advance'.
Smart guy. Listen to him.
February 23rd, 2023 at 10:48 PM ^
LFG!!! Looks like I have my job, if anything for another day lol
Fantastic win against Rutgers!