Space Coyote: Wisconsin Reaction and Misconceptions

Long post. I don't feel like it's diary-worthy, but if it is you can move it.

Very tough loss this weekend, as Wisconsin dominated Michigan. Saw some troubling things, saw some good things too (fewer than bad). A lot of mental issues with the team right now, have to get that corrected. Overall, this is a one-game sample size; and while the returns against MTSU and Army aren’t stellar, this isn’t immediately a throw away season many fans are acting like. A few observations and misconceptions that I’m seeing thrown out there that I wanted to comment on.

Offense

• This is very decidedly not a Jim Harbaugh offense. I see a lot of people claiming Harbaugh is meddling and that this offense is effectively the same as last year. That is false. It is unfortunately false in my opinion.
  • Last year’s offense was not broken. It was a solid foundation that needed tweaks to improve the RPO and intermediate pass attack, and to better link run action and pass and try to involve the RBs a little more in the pass game. This was an overhaul. Unnecessarily so. A fusion between what Harbaugh did and what Gattis could bring made sense, both from an offensive evolution standpoint and what fit this team. That is not what Michigan has.
  • Alabama ran as much 12 personnel (2 TEs) last year as 11 personnel. Many Power 5 spread teams are going that direction, as are many pro teams ("pro style) that heavily utilize these concepts. That is part of the “pro-style” nature of the offense. The fact that Michigan is utilizing a lot of 12 personnel is not indicative of Harbaugh (Harbaugh, if anything, prefers additional backs because of what it can do to gaps).
  • The base run (inside zone) existed from last year but is run a bit differently. A major way it’s different is the speed in the backfield, which I think is limiting the downhill nature of it (and to a degree hurting the OL’s effectiveness).
  • The pin and pull is run very differently than Harbaugh has previously run it.
  • We rarely see evidence of gap schemes or Down G that have been utilized throughout Harbaugh’s tenure.
  • The run game diversity is severely lacking. This is extremely anti-Harbaugh, made more obvious by the lack of use of lead blockers at all (even from the H-back position). 
  • The pass game is quite different. We have not seen any evidence of West Coast Offense base concepts that Harbaugh was known for from is San Diego days through the days with Jed (even arguably early 2017 with Pep).
  • Besides the flood concepts, we also aren’t seeing the downfield route concepts Pep utilized effectively last year (forget for a second that he relied too heavily on them, the concepts, in isolation and particularly linked with a solid down hill run attack, are effective).
  • The route concepts themselves have been simplified. At times this is leading to a lack of separation. More so, it relies on getting the ball out on time because you don’t have as much opportunity to see the coverage and routes develop (i.e. you have to throw open). The QBs have not done well in that regard. This was a concern of Patterson’s from Ole Miss, this was a concern of Patterson from last year, and this concern was also hinted at by the fact that Pep’s offense last year looked very different than it did with Speight in early 2017.
  • Do I believe Harbaugh still has influence on play calls? Yes, absolutely, because almost all coaches retain that. Do we run here? Do we try to pound it in here? Do we try to set up the pass a little more? Those are things they’ll influence. I don’t think he’s calling plays, it’s generic influence in-game, which is appropriate, especially with a first time play caller. I don’t believe he should be calling or dictating plays at this point, but he probably should retain more influence, if anything. The only questionable part of utilize Mason Saturday is that he hasn't gotten significant offensive reps this year and hasn't carried the ball. But the idea to use him in those situations, given the performance of the RB depth and injuries, 100% makes sense (and he's never really had fumble problems before).

• There are some schematic good things coming from the offense
  • The offense is using the slot position more effectively than last year (although not the classic “slot” type receiver, they are getting use out of receivers aligned in the slot). They are getting more receiving out of that position.
  • The RPO package has been extended. Which is good. Now have to actually read it correctly and block it correctly (both were an issue Saturday). Oh, the TE Arrow RPO... that is a standard part of the offense that Gattis was a part of at PSU and Bama. That is decidedly not a Harbaugh thing (doesn't mean they shouldn't also involve WRs on bubbles with similar action, though the read is sometimes easier with the Arrow route as you get to read a box defender).
  • RBs are releasing in the pass game, and especially if the downfield attack can get developed, that is going to do a lot to keep the O on schedule. That in my opinion is a good development that Harbaugh has generally struggled to utilize.

• There are schematic negatives too
  • The installation of this offense appears bothersome. None of the concepts seem to be run cleanly. The timing of a lot of it feels off. There are a lot of little errors that are uncharacteristic of previous Harbaugh teams. I expect the O to continue to grow throughout the season, but the lack of run game diversity in favor of some simplicity but failure to form any strength has led to the offense feeling “grab bag”. That doesn’t necessarily mean it is grab bag, but there is nothing to lean on, to force defenses to respect, that then open up the rest of the offense. That is problematic as you can’t ever really get the ball rolling and so you have nothing to build off of, instead trying to build all at once. This does point to a failure of season planning, particularly in fall camp. That is as much on Harbaugh as Gattis, as that is an area he should have retained more responsibility.
  • Already talked about run game diversity seriously lacking. Very little outside of RPOs that put LBs keys in conflict. Extremely frustrating to me, as this was Harbaugh’s strength.
  • There are very few hard play action concepts that attack downfield. Right now, the downfield threat is mostly go routes, which are effectively “alert” routes that are thrown if a guy gets wide open. That’s why until late you barely saw the QBs looking for these, because you glimpse and if they are covered you move to the next thing. Combined with Patterson’s issues reading coverages, this is severely limiting the use of the outside WRs until they just start tossing the ball in there air, which worked, but also really isn’t sustainable as an offense (and IMO, we’ll see better CBs than Wisconsin’s). This team needs to do more to threaten vertical, and design for it (outside of the 4 verts concept they've run, which I only recall previously in last year's OSU game; that's a good staple to keep).

• Some misconceptions
  • We were told to believe Michigan would be pass first. This was never going to be the case. Both at PSU under Moorhead and especially at Bama, it was focused on the run first which set up the other things. Yes, in big games they would favor the pass more (Michigan did against Wisconsin too), but it’s an offense still predicated on establishing run (which it failed to do).
  • We were expected to be 11 personnel almost exclusively. This wasn’t going to be the case. Michigan likes their TE group. Bama ran about as much 12 personnel as 11 personnel. TEs are utilized because they give you some diversity in run and pass options. But because Michigan hasn’t really strengthened the run diversity, things like the arrow screen to Eubanks works well once, but then gets cut down after that because we haven’t really built to slot slant off of it (or the threat of Eubanks being an effective blocker, forcing the defense to flow playside to account for his added gap).
• Overall - I’ll cut from some tweets

  • I get what Gattis is trying to do schematically and it isn’t drastically different than many other “pro spread O”. I question how it was installed and prepped. It’s sloppy, undisciplined, and awkward, and has failed to establish any aspect of it, which is needed to get it rolling

    — Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) September 22, 2019

  • I know lots of people ? if it’s different than last year’s O, the answer is pretty significantly, unnecessarily so. Every OC Harbaugh has had has had a lot of freedom to implement/tweak/add to Harbaugh’s basic structure. This was an overhaul away from what made him successful

    — Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) September 22, 2019

  • Gattis is doing things that are improvements from last year: more diverse RPO, releasing RBs in pass, adding some intermediate/short threat, but the overhaul has resulted in worse fit for everyone, including Patterson

    — Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) September 22, 2019

  • And experienced OC that can manage playcalling that could have worked more within Harbaugh’s base package and added these wrinkles would have maintained at least last year O and had long term benefits. UM now has to ride this out

    — Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) September 22, 2019

  • You can click the tweets to follow further thoughts.
  • I don’t really know what to make of the OL issues right now. I think lpart of it is lack of run game diversity, part of it is not being able to set up run to protect them, they are getting less help from RBs this year by scheme (and at times personnel), and they didn’t get a full fall camp together with some rotating pieces. But all together, some of the issues with basic stunts was worrisome.

Defense

• This was always going to be one of the games that was concerning for Michigan because of the lack of difference makers on the interior DL. I’d have to review, but I actually thought the DTs held up decently, maybe even better than I expected. That doesn’t mean they played great, just meh.
• By far the most concerning part was the play of the LBs. They clearly ID’ed on specific keys and got locked into those and failed to see full plays develop. This resulted in false steps, getting stuck out-gapped front side, late to the point of attack, and poor angles. Wisconsin does more than any other team on the schedule to mess with gaps and the LB’s eyes, which is the good news. The bad news is that they were terrible.
• Glasgow is getting a surprising amount of hate? He’s by far been Michigan’s best and most consistent LB so far. He isn’t an uber-recruit or athlete, he’s their best LB right now. Other guys need to step up consistency to bypass him, because running fast in the wrong direction isn’t better than what Glasgow brings.
• Hawkins struggled with his eyes as well. I thought Mettelus was overall good. Hawkins evacuating gaps because he’s too keyed on one thing is bad.
• CBs are struggling to set the edge, and offenses are taking advantage of that.
• Hill is coming in for a lot of grief in run support, a lot of the issues are not primarily on him. Although he could do some things to hold down some plays, when he was rotating back to deep center field it wasn’t his responsibility to have an outside gap (where he failed was in making the play a 20 yard gain instead of a TD). Where he stepped inside, that was an error, but was an error where the defense was out-gapped because the LBs didn’t do their job.
• In my opinion, the defense is stressing, and that’s resulting in more issues. This tends to happen when you get the ball run down your throat. But what it means is that people are starting to try to make plays outside their assignment and not trusting each other, which is resulting in worse issues. A hallmark of Brown’s defenses has always been that guys are very assignment sound, and that’s why they have generally been successful regardless of talent level.
• There isn’t a lot you can do scheme-wise when you have issues at interior DL and your LBs are struggling to maintain gap discipline. One thing you can do is simplify, but that isn’t Brown’s MO and I don’t think really solves anything. This was always going to have to be a scheme heavy/complex year to find success. Brown is relying on that a lot of times, sometimes too much up front, and it’s resulting in issues we haven’t seen before.
• Some misconceptions
  • Why do we have bubbles in our front? Basically all defenses have bubbles except for 6-man fronts (down by the goal line this can become 9 man fronts if you include TEs). In modern football, that isn’t feasible. With pullers and reads and all that, you need LBs and secondary players that can flow and match gaps. That’s especially true vs Wisconsin. There are going to be bubbles in the defensive front.
  • The scheme is figured out. That’s not the reason for the issues. Proof isn’t that Michigan didn’t “follow the jet” in man coverage (where they would get outnumbered by the jet player more often than not) and instead dropped a guy and rotated down a safety opposite. A lot of very successful DCs do the same thing. The scheme is predominately fine, Brown is even doing a few different things that I think were smart. But they are getting out executed and are not playing sound. That is much more the issue.
• What’s up with Glasgow playing 3-tech in goal line situations?
  • In my opinion, this is a very smart changeup. It’s a very bad base look at the goal line.
  • The idea: Wisconsin has a ton of beef on the front side of the play which you want to match with your beef. So you put your heavy weight over there.
  • But you still need bodies backside, and you can’t allow those bodies to get free access to the second level or to the playside.
  • So you put a small, fast player at 3-tech. This is what has been known as a “grubber” in my history. The idea is to use this player, shoot him into the hip of the center (almost like a tilt DT), and get two-with-one on the backside (effectively take out the backside G and C with one small player). If the G pulls, that player will shoot the gap into the backfield because he’s small and quick and the Center will struggle to work back to him or the tackle to reach him. Michigan’s problem is they relied on a gimmick as their base. Brown is relying more on gimmicks to cover up issues up front. Wisconsin ID’ed this, and that’s why they got the easy QB sneak.
• Overall
  • I don’t think at all this is an issue of “the scheme has been figured out, Brown is now just a stubborn old man and dumb”. This is a talent and execution issue, which as I’ve repeatedly said, is still largely on the coaches. They are forced to be complex because of talent, but unlike previously, they aren’t playing disciplined and don’t have Bush/Winovich to cover it up when they don’t.
  • I also think players are pressing. Paye made two uncharacteristic errors vs Wisconsin. One where he squeezed too far inside (on a very well design Counter play that looks initially like he’s a read defender), another on a stunt where he got so washed inside and to the ground that the play went from a sack to a TD. Those are not mistakes he made last year. I do this not to blame Paye, but as an example of how it’s happening. It’s impacting the other DL and LB levels. It’s causing the defense to play outside of itself, and resulting in more issues.

Overall

• In terms of gap discipline issues, this was Michigan’s toughest test. They failed, so it’s hard to say what that means going forward. I do have faith in Brown. There are going to be some busts this year, but I think for the majority of the schedule the defense will still be solid, although not great like we’ve seen previously. There are some areas of weakness that are becoming apparent though that will be tough to mask unless the D can believe and play within itself.
• Michigan has to roll with this offense now. I think there will be some hard off season decisions to make. But right now, they have to figure out within the package what is working and start emphasizing it. They need something to work, or it’s not going to look any different than it has through three games.
• What are the tough decisions? I’m still of the belief that Harbaugh is the right option for Michigan. I don’t think Michigan is going to go out and find a better coach. I think the fans patience is a hindrance on the success of the program; that’s not to say I don’t get it, but it doesn’t help. I think the significant success of a handful of programs, in particular, OSU, has made this patience worse. Never the less, it is extremely difficult and requires a significant degree of right decisions, right timing, and right luck to achieve those heights. Michigan may not get there. I’m doubtful they will get there if they continue to destroy a foundation before anything else is built. What does that mean? It probably means most years are of the 10-win sort. It means some years will be worse. But it gives you a chance – the best chance in my opinion – at some years being better. Harbaugh has to get some of the monkeys off the back and get some of the pressure off and improve some of the mental aspects of this program. I think tweaking until it figures that out is the best path forward provided he doesn’t lose the team or the recruiting. I think to take a step in recruiting to OSU levels, he needs to win big games first, not the other way around.

Anyway, this won't stop a lot of the misconceptions. It won't stop people speaking their minds about things they don't know. This was a bad game, they were out-coached, and there is a lot to clean up, I'm not denying any of that. But calling Don Brown a "pussy" for not doing interviews? That guy stood in front of the media after PSU in '17, he did throughout the offseason. He isn't afraid of the media. Coaches aren't required to be taken to task or have to answer for what they did, their job is to do what is best for the program and the team. If that means he stays off camera for a week and works on fixing the defense, great. There is zero way to win- er, there is zero way to not absolutely lose in as a coach at Michigan in a press conference post-loss. Literally people bitch when you give one and people bitch when you do because you should be working on fixing the problems. This fan base (and most college football fan bases) man...But that's more thoughts for another thread.