Space Coyote on the 3rd and goal pass to the 5
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
Some commenter replied our WR coaches aren't doing their job and a rationale mentioned was not fighting for the ball. Idiot clearly doesn't pay attention to Ronnie Bell.
As to his overall point...I'd imagine this stuff is relatively high level? I'm curious what coaches think. It's sometimes hard to decipher the intricacies of this game as being "these guys should know this, full stop" or "yea this is pretty advanced stuff, it's hard to get it all exact, especially when there's ya know, another team defending".
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:11 PM ^
I might be misinterpreting SC's reply, but he made it sound like this is actually a simplified read for JJ. Wilson is option 1, and if the coverage works in our favor, it should be open. Bell is option 2, and you're hoping he can power it into the end zone if that's the case. Schoonmaker and Johnson's routes are just meant to draw defenders away from where the play is supposed to go.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:35 PM ^
But for the receivers, they themselves have so many reads to make nowadays...pre- and post-snap. A route ran a mere 2 yards too far inside or 3.5 yards too short, can spoil an otherwise well designed play!
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:43 PM ^
Bell wasn't supposed to power it in from the 5. He didn't adjust to the coverage.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:51 PM ^
It sounds like he's saying, that if the offense sees it's zone defense coverage, the outside receiver should adjust, and stay near the hash marks to draw his defender to him, thus making an opening in the defense, because of where his defender left from, creating a clear path to throw to the receiver in the end zone. The pass would have to be thrown very hard and fast to get it to the receiver in the end zone before the defenders near him had a chance to come over and knock it down. JJ has a strong throwing arm, and could have sizzled it in there.
Schoonmaker's motioning across revealed the defense was in a zone, because no defender ran with him as a man-to-man cover defender. Instead, the defenders just stayed in their assigned zone, and adjusted their place in their assigned zone according to where the motioning offensive player, Schoonmaker, went to.
So it was a zone defense.
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
I only replied this because I am agreeing with you, but I don't know if all commenters here are catching what Space Coyote is saying. So I tried to add detail.
November 3rd, 2022 at 9:17 AM ^
Is there any room in this play for JJ to throw to the TE? It seems that the TE had a better chance of reaching the end zone vs Bell. TE further down the progression, presumably, but much more open.
November 3rd, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
I know we like to dunk on Gattis a lot these days, but he was (is) a really good WR coach. Defenses have adjusted some to Michigan's passing game, but I do feel like a little bit was lost with Gattis. He wasn't the brains of this offense, but he did bring some value to the receiver group that I think we aren't seeing this season because he is out the door.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
Thanks for posting, very interesting and informative watch. I have to say that I don't agree that Wilson is open if Bell goes to the outside (1:44 mark) -- that LB looks to be in prime position to undercut it -- but nice to see what the play was designed to do.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
Yeah for such a quick read, that seems like a big ask of Bell to sit and go outside. I think the coverage just didn't work in a way to help the play design.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:46 PM ^
Thanks. Clear analysis, and I appreciate you posting.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:46 PM ^
Probably homerism, but I still believe it was JH trolling MT for going for it on 4th down inside the 10.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
I think this play was before that.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^
I'm curious as to why not throw it away instead of taking a risk there.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:54 PM ^
So, execution, not play calling? Still boo. Also, still only sending one guy to the end zone and when players do it wrong...
Whatever. Let's get it fixed soon.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
In one of the twitter comments SC said
It's actually trying to simplify things for the QB. You're limiting how much he has to read and giving him chances to get the ball out quick rather than have to sit in the pocket
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) November 2, 2022
Not ideal as far as the coaches loosening the reins on JJ imo. Maybe they figure we didn't need to risk anything against MSU, which fair enough given the matchup. But at some point you'd think they need in game reps of redzone concepts that they'll need to beat OSU.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
Maybe the idea of simplifying it there is just so he can get the ball out fast, not so much because they didn't trust him. It was a lot of ifs/thens for the WRs and therefore also the QB, so I don't know if it's exactly simple.
The problem was, per SC, the sit route (who caught the ball) was in the wrong place, ultimately. He never should have been the target, but he was in the way of where the ball was supposed to go, so he became the target.
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Even if run right... too many receivers in the same zone.
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:24 PM ^
It's not that unusual, certainly not in Harbaugh offenses dating back to his NFL days.
It's not the only type of route combo they run. But this appears to be a specifically designed goal-to-go play, and will have been developed to run in this sort of down-and-distance range (my vague guess is 4 or 5 yards to go to 10, but this is only a guess). They have some route combos designed to spring a specific player or two. Some feature more players that attack multiple defenders in space.
I mean, the challenge with diagnosing the passing offense is that we don't have a lot of film to work with showing the entire repertoire of routes. Just a few days ago someone was complaining, vociferously, that Michigan's offense didn't have enough route combos that broke specific receivers open; well, according to SC, here is one such combo, but an execution problem kept the player from being open.
I'm still not a huge fan of this play because there's only one guy in the end zone and it's third and goal, but I understand the idea behind it that SC is trying to outline.
As far as "loosening the reins" on JJ, as far as I can tell JJ has as much of the offense at his command as Cade did last year, or really any of Harbaugh's QBs at Michigan. And while I have consistently wanted to see more downfield attack, there have also clearly been a number of situations where what the defense gives dictates the choices made. And even in some situations where we've seen what we might call "checkdowns" where the ball doesn't cover much yardage in the air, they are defensible decisions. And sometimes *great* decisions, getting the ball to athletes with lots of room to pick up yardage.
November 3rd, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
FWIW, I think this is correct:
And while I have consistently wanted to see more downfield attack, there have also clearly been a number of situations where what the defense gives dictates the choices made.
I'm only going from what I see in the broadcast (my one in-person game this year, PSU, Michigan clearly chose not to try to challenge PSU's CBs). It seems like teams are playing a lot of zone against Michigan with a high shell, possibly for several reasons:
- Concerns about overall defensive speed and man coverage against Michigan's fast receivers
- Concerns about JJ breaking contain while man coverage has their backs turned
- Concerns about letting secondary players read and assist with run game generally given Michigan's tendencies
That would tend to leave a lot open between the 20's and quick-hitter short gains, which is what JJ has been effective in getting (as I understand it, the most effective in the country).
It's natural to want it all--e.g., want a devastating rushing attack *and* receivers that block their hearts out *and* a wide-open passing game a la the Tennessee Air Raid. I tend to think there are some tradeoffs we are witnessing. And, I do think the relatively conservative play-calling we've seen in the red zone is opponent-dependent.
Given how much more efficient and effective this year's offense appears with JJ in just his sixth start, my concern level regarding Michigan's passing attack is still percolating around a 5 or 6 out of 10. YMMV.
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
"And while I have consistently wanted to see more downfield attack, there have also clearly been a number of situations where what the defense gives dictates the choices made. "
I think that is part of the problem... sometimes the right answer is for great players to go out and win even when the defense dictates not going to the play.
Sometimes we're a little too "take what the defense gives" and not "impose your will" in the passing game - and the opposite in the running game.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:55 PM ^
So the TE is wide F open, better to throw it short into coverage? Why?
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
My guess is it's supposed to be a quick throw, he's looking toward his first option, the TE isn't supposed to be open. That's a lot to process really fast when it didn't go right. The WR was open enough, he pulled the trigger.
And the guy in the flat probably doesn't score either.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
Maybe, but the coverage is playing off him. I think Schoon has 50/50 getting into the EZ, which is better than the other receiver. In this situation I like my TE's chances of muscling his way through one defender to break the plane. Not guaranteed for sure, but of the 3 he has the best shot.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
I agree he does have the best chance, just saying it's not like it was a sure TD. But even if it was, I'm saying my guess is JJ was never going to look that way because of the concept of the play. In a perfect world he probably comes off the first receiver there.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:05 PM ^
It really wasn't close to being an INT..."into coverage" isn't really true. His TE I the flat would've been tackled for the same yardage when the ball would've been caught and up field, with 1 sure and a 2nd inside guy getting to him soon enough if the ball was thrown out there.
And as mentioned...this is all happening fast. This is a tiny glimpse into what makes (can make) this game complex and take so much skill/precise decision making.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
The TE is open with a pocket collapsing. Honestly he probably goes down short as well. Maybe he makes a man miss. I have to assume he was running out that way to create space as well. Tough to hit a 3rd read with pressure.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
My biggest takeaway from this is that I don't know crap about football.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Bad playcall on 3rd and goal , could have taken a timeout or changed the play.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
Michigan needs to start targeting receivers on the outside in the red zone.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:14 PM ^
Man, how long has it been since we've seen a corner fade in the EZ? I'd give Johnson or Anthony a shot at least once, especially against that secondary.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
At 2:15 of this video, Cornelius Johnson catches what is close to a fade. It was last year at Wisconsin. There must be others though. It does show Cornelius Johnson could catch a fade.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
Man, JJ had a nice downfield throw in there, too.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
Remember his career debut?
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:21 PM ^
Sure I remember. I was replying about corner fades. Why did you reply this?
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
Are you on mobile? My comment isn't replying to yours, but to the comment below it.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:26 PM ^
Ah, my misunderstanding.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:52 PM ^
We have capable receivers. I do think I would be getting a bit frustrated if I was one of them. You gotta target them sometimes or they are going to stop coming.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
We said the same thing with Nico and DPJ. Apparently they like to come here!
November 3rd, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
This is a legitimate concern. Where is our Keon Coleman?
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^
Except that--someone tell me if I'm wrong--if this play works you have a simple short pass for a TD rather than a tough one. Looks to me like the kind of play that you could get pretty well down in practice and then feel pretty nervous trying to get right in the heart of a heated game.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
My biggest takeaway is that it's best not to have 3rd and goal from the 8 because its very difficult to get guys open when they know you have to pass and you are boxed in.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
Bend don't break. Your conclusion above is a primary concept of the philosophy! Bending between the 20s can suck (for fans) but isn't demoralizing to the players when they're certain they'll stall the offense out and force a kick for only 3.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:35 PM ^
I don’t fully understand why Wilson can’t keep running his route to the back of the endzone there?
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:50 PM ^
I’ll be honest. Space Coyote is very knowledgeable but I don’t really buy this explanation. I just think it is a poor play design.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:54 PM ^
A poor play design in that it was designed to pick up 2 yards? I have no idea if SC is correct or not in his explanation, but the one thing that seems undoubtedly true is they did not intend to make a 2 yard pass.
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
"A poor play design in that it was designed to pick up 2 yards?"
No - a poor play design because even if run right, the spacing is awful.
November 3rd, 2022 at 9:41 PM ^
It could be the play was poorly executed.
November 4th, 2022 at 8:00 AM ^
Even if executed 100% as SC said it should be - it's too many receivers in a compressed space.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
There is no way our coaches want our receivers stacked like that. It effectively deletes the end zone route.
Somebody ran the wrong route. These guys need to know what their route tree is as will as have an idea what the other players are running.
JJ was focused on the end zone route. Bell was standing right in the way and got the ball by default at that point. Schoon had a better chance but by that time JJ bailed and got off the field.
It does look like Roman could go get to the back on a post and JJ could go over the top of Windmon. But JJ is expecting the hook and that’s what Roman did.
Harbaugh should running extra red zone practice. I am not sold on our WR coaching right now.