So how accurate are Brian's preview predictions ?
EDIT: This was meant to be an academic exercise born out of curiosity. I am not calling out anybody or anything. Some of seem to be misinterpreting my intentions.
******************Prediction(M-opp)***********Actual(M-opp)
Purdue****************28-30(L)********************36-38(L)
PSU*******************23-21(W)********************10-35(L)
Illinois**************28-17(W)***********************13-38(L)
Iowa******************17-20(L)**********************28-30(L)
MSU*******************31-27(W)**********************20-26(L)
Indiana***************42-17(W)**********************36-33(W)
EMU*******************48-10(W)**********************45-17(W)
ND********************27-23(W)**********************38-34(W)
WMU (Tim)************31-21(W)**********************31-7(W)
So his track record has gone to hell along with our season :-)
He seems to have a pretty poor read on how many points we will score or how many we will give up...which well can't blame him for that.
I wanted to do a more in-depth analysis checking out how well his key matchups and "Opportunities for me to look Stupid" played out, but don't have the time right now.
EDIT: Data fixed and PSU included
November 13th, 2009 at 2:14 PM ^
You've got some incorrect data in your post. Brian predicted a win over Illinois and your Notre Dame actual score is wrong.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:18 PM ^
missing DSU, PSU.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:17 PM ^
but you also left out the penn state game
November 13th, 2009 at 2:23 PM ^
I am having some formatting nightmares.
Not including Baby Seal U because that wasn't a football game.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:26 PM ^
I think Brian's analysis seems to be pretty dead on... But I just think it goes to show that we never know what we will get from week to week.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:28 PM ^
never mind. you edited.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:30 PM ^
so are you seeing new issues or just piling on based on comment above (which were constructive and immediately utilized btw)
Edit: okay you edited your comment.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:47 PM ^
piling on? Ha. No, these comments don't come up for me in real time, so didn't realize everyone had pointed them out (and that you had edited) before I hit "reply"
November 13th, 2009 at 2:52 PM ^
sometimes.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:32 PM ^
and what it's worth:
2008 Prediction: 24-17 Wisconsin
2008 Actual: 27-25 Michigan
I'm hoping this becomes a theme for Wisconsin games.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:34 PM ^
There's a reason the site is focused heavily on what happened instead of what will happen. Football is such a random-ass game that specific predictions are laughable. I only do them because I feel I have to.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:40 PM ^
Just having some fun with ya buddy..now that you are a celebrity and all...
November 13th, 2009 at 2:44 PM ^
I don't begrudge Brian his predictions. Nobody's good at them, even professional television analysts who have been playing, coaching, and analyzing football for their entire lives. ESPN keeps a running tally of their win-loss record for predictions, and some of those "experts" are right around 50-50.
I'm not sure what Brian's historical record is, but I think this 2009 team has been particularly difficult to put a finger on. We have such little depth that one injury (to Minor, Molk, Forcier, etc.) has a huge impact on the team's production, and freshman QBs are notoriously hot and cold. I would guess that the pre-2008 teams were much easier to predict, if only because Michigan would be the correct pick about 70% of the time.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:50 PM ^
Just curiosity I guess. Simmons always keeps track of his "predictions" and mentions it at the end of his picks column...fwiw
November 13th, 2009 at 3:51 PM ^
He was tracking the New York Times weekly football picks section, and for three straight years they didn't get a single score prediction right. It was like 0-for-750 or something.
So don't knock anybody but a serious Vegas person for not predicting a score exactly right.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:50 PM ^
Over the past two years I've only been wrong once; I had too much faith in the Redskins.
November 13th, 2009 at 3:44 PM ^
...called "Chances for me to look stupid on Saturday" for a reason.
No one's good at predicting winners, much less the score. It's like predicting the weather AND the temperature for the next week.
Let's enjoy them for what they are - PREDICTIONS
November 13th, 2009 at 3:56 PM ^
No one is perfect ... except maybe Lou Holtz
November 13th, 2009 at 4:06 PM ^
Lou Holthththth
November 13th, 2009 at 4:28 PM ^
shower?
If that dude ever came near me, I would spray him with a can of lysol.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:28 PM ^
The real test would be to compare Brian's predictions against the guys from thewolverine.com, Harmon at CBS.Sportsline, and anyone else that predicts every Michigan game. Then compare the overall wins/losses and against the spread.
I nominate someone who is not me to do this.
I imagine all Michigan predictions over the last two years are as accurate as anyone's... as in way not accurate.
November 13th, 2009 at 5:20 PM ^
how much personal bias comes into the picture with M predictions, not just Brian's, but everyone's on this board. I think most of us here would admit that when we make predictions about M football, we look at the College Football World through Maize and Blue colored glasses. It's because we all want Michigan to win so much. Regardless, Brian's analysis of all the games is fantastic and much appreciated.