Semi-OT: Media Deals & Expansion
So there are contradicting reports but it's seeming as though ESPN is not interested in Tier 1 rights for the Pac-12. A big 12 rep was told ESPN wanted 3 conferences and right now they have the SEC, Big 12 and ACC. They are reportedly interested in a smaller, secondary package. Not OT because this is probably going to have major ripples across college athletics.
Another interesting update to the ND rumors(per Split Zone Duo podcast), is that they have asked for $75M per year from NBC. The '24 home games for ND are NIU, Miami (NTM), Louisville, Stanford, FSU, UVA, Miami(YTM). '25 looks better with TAMU & USC heading to South Bend, but they are essentially asking for over $10M per home game. That combined with the fact that NBC is now broadcasting the Big Ten and ND may not have anyone else willing to pay that. CBS doesn't broadcast CFB all day, and they have their game of the week locked up with the B1G. ESPN is already showing 3 conferences, and it will likely include multiple SEC games each weekend. On top of the fact that NBA media rights are up for renegotiations, they are already having layoffs, and dealing with cord-cutting. (Disney was reportedly considering selling ESPN at one point last year). NBC could decide it's beneficial to try to push ND either into the B1G or to have an ACC style agreement with them where they can get more value with that deal.
To hell with Notre Dame. Bring Washington.
Yup. I hope they lose every game except for the one on September 23.
I'm rooting for the meteor on September 23.
And Oregon too please bc my son might very well choose to go there and play in the marching band.
... and Stanford because I went there for grad school.
... and Colorado because we don't have enough posts about Deion Sanders.
Nothing personal but fuck stanfurd
ROLL ON YOU BEARS!!!!!
exactly
Apple TV or Prime Video could step in to broadcast ND games. $75MM is a relatively low investment considering what Prime paid for TNF ($1BB per year-$58MM per game).
It’d be very risky to go streaming only for an entire season. One game a year is doable for a program (like ND has done with Peacock) or one game a week for a league (just TNF is streamed and usually a meh matchup). The biggest programs are on network TV most of the year with a handful of games on cable.
Not only that, but TNF has no competition. Unless ND plans on playing all of its home games in the middle of the week, Apple will be competing with a lot of other, bigger games on broadcast and linear cable. Hey, Apple might be willing to write the check, idk, but shifting from NBC broadcast to Apple streaming will crush ND's exposure.
tl;dr: If ND plays a football game and nobody watches, did it really happen?
Exactly this...would you pay for an Amazon prime membership to only be able to watch Michigan home games? $129 is what it is now I think. It's risky, especially with an underwhelming slate of games. (looking at last years home schedule)
And what if...the B1G collectively reduces the number of games their schools play with ND. Michigan is already playing them once a decade, and if USC does the same....which they may because they will now have Penn State, OSU, Nebraska, and Michigan rotating on the schedule.
Because Prime is more than just a streaming membership?
true enough, but if you don't already have it....then you're essentially paying that amount for 7 football games.
Who doesn’t already have Amazon Prime? It must be as close to ubiquitous as a cable hookup in 2010.
I don't have it. I pick and choose my streaming, and don't use Amazon delivery enough to warrant it. And watch college more than NFL
Speaking of Prime, let's check in on him for a moment (with a tip-o-the-hat to "pond time" for re-tweeting the original tweet):
Coach Prime tells you what is going to happen before it happens.
— RK (@RyanKoenigsberg) April 24, 2023
You just gotta listen. pic.twitter.com/lBPsT5g0EN
different math, Amazon uses TNF as a leverage to sell their prime membership, and probably doesn't need a contract with ND unless it opens a demographic that it has not reached yet.
Otherwise, what ND asks per viewers are not outrageous.
The NFL is also a lot more valuable than the Notre Dame brand, though.
Estimated values:
- ND: $914 mil
- NFL: $143 billion
The NFL brand is worth more than 150 times what the Notre Dame brand is. Granted, this isn't a one-to-one comparison as we're talking about broadcasting rights and not buying the teams/program outright, but it puts into perspective the vast value difference here. Based on the per game investment for TNF, a comparable per game cost for an ND would be just under $387,000. That's a far cry from $7.5 mil per game.
It's not $7.5 million per game. It's almost $11 million per game.
$75 million / 7 home games = $10.7 million per game
From what I've heard there is a lot of conflicting info out there and much is unclear. Where did this get reported?
Dennis Dodd is reporting that ESPN is out as a primary option, however Nicole Auerbach with the Athletic is saying the opposite. Dennis Dodd is supporting his reporting with information from Big 12 administrators that correspond with this. Auerbach typically hasn't been in the know with these kinds of things.
I think both can be true, sort of. ESPN is looking for content for it's late window. P12 is the best late content available, so ESPN has made several offers for one game per week. My understanding is one of those offers was for Tier 1, but it was a very low number. So ESPN might have made an alternative offer for the Tier 2 game per week instead. ESPN really doesn't need Tier 1 for the late slot and is not willing to pay Tier 1 prices. The MWC contract (Fox) is coming up soon and ESPN could bid on part of that. ESPN also already has BYU as part of its B12 package and many of those games could go into the late slot. Bottom line: P12 probably will have to choose between $$ and exposure for it's Tier 1 content. They are in a tough spot unless someone else steps up (NBC Universal?).
I don't think that BIG will ever cave to a ACC style agreement with ND.
Yep. It will never happen.
I could see the B1G agreeing to it as part of a phased integration of ND into the conference. And there's somewhat of a precedent; ND and Johns Hopkins are affiliate members of the B1G in hockey and lacrosse, respectively, so the conference is already shown some flexibility on the issue of affiliate or partial members.
Ultimately, money will dictate what ND and the B1G decide to do. There may come a point where we make ND the proverbial "offer they can't refuse" in which the mountain of money they would stand to make from full membership in the B1G would dwarf what they make from their NBC deal and their affiliation with the ACC. The stick to go with that carrot may be an implicit or explicit threat by the B1G to raid the ACC for other schools, thereby damaging the ACC and forcing ND's hand.
In any case, schools and conferences have a way of forgetting tradition when they see massive dollar signs.
A phased/transition period while ND extracts itself from the ACC is different. The B10 might agree to something like that in order to land ND permanently. But not a deal like the current ACC deal. Zero chance. ND just doesn't bring enough value. Whatever incremental value they bring will need to be spread over 18+ schools. The B10 (Michigan and OSU in particular) are not giving ND sweetheart treatment for an extra $5-10 million per year. They both have AD budgets well in excess of $200 million now, before the new B10 media deal kicks in. Add another $40-50 million that will be rolling in soon ... and $5-10 million is pocket change.
That's true, but the people who run these athletic departments don't think like we do. For UM & OSU...4 ND home games every decade? Absolutely. $5-$10M million, plus concessions, exposure etc...they don't have the deep seated hatred of ND like we do. And do you really think of ALL people, Warde Manuel would say no? Not a chance in hell.
Warde Manuel would not be making this decision.
I am starting to think that the fans unwillingness to make special allowances only applies to the fans. The fact that they have an automatic bid to the CFP/Playoffs if achieving a certain ranking is absurd. I think the league presidents/AD's would absolutely take it. 5 ND games per year would be a HUGE benefit to the lower tier conference schools as well. ND in Lincoln? Champagne? Evanston? Madison? Even if it was once every 4/5 years, those games would be huge. And it would be a good first step to possibly pulling them in completely.
Ok - this is the ND home schedule that would be broadcast: The '24 home games for ND are NIU, Miami (NTM), Louisville, Stanford, FSU, UVA, Miami(YTM).
Realistically - which game(s) would you have any interest in watching?
Maybe FSU - which is on November 9th - and, IMO, doesn't seem as attractive as some of the earlier games in that series. The ND vs Miami (YTM) - also doesn't seem to have the "cache" of the "Catholics vs Convicts" matchups did 35 years ago - yes, only 35 years ago.
Perhaps the Irish want to resurrect the "10-10" tie with the Spartans from 1966.
The 2025 ND home schedule includes - Texas A&M, Purdue, USC, Navy, NC State, and Syracuse.
$ 75M / year? I recognize they have a loyal following - but, it seems to be rivaling the interest the Pac-12 has - and, who knows - maybe the CW network will package them together.
Oh - I also wonder - will the B1G request changes after UCLA and USC become conference members? In '26 - it looks like the Irish face four B1G foes - Wisconsin, Purdue, MSU, and USC.
Exactly. ND only has 1-2 potentially mega home games per season. Last year, USC and OSU were road games, so they had one: Clemson. This year, those games all flip so they will have two: OSU and USC. That's just not worth $75 million to an established network. Maybe a major streamer could justify it as a way to build subscribers, but not an established network that makes its money selling commercials.
The Pac-12's days are numbered. The fact that they haven't landed a media deal yet and that laughable ideas like a deal with the CW or an all-streaming deal with Apple+ or Amazon are being floated is a really bad sign. Given the fact that their current commissioner George Kliavkoff seems to be no less clueless than their previous commissioner Larry Scott (whose incompetence ran the Pac-12 into the ground and is the reason why it finds itself in the mess it's in), it's hard to envision a scenario in which the Pac-12 even survives, let alone regains its status as a top-tier conference.
I think the new guy has a much tougher hand than Larry Scott did - he made a bad bet on the Pac12 Network and bad decisions on spendy office real estate. He had 4 marquee schools and a growing, trendy conference in a growing part of the country - and then had some bad luck in USC being down and Oregon never quite getting over the hump. So some bad moves, some bad bets, and some bad luck. Kliavkoff is in a far weaker position and a far more treacherous landscape.
Also, I've long wondered why the CW didn't carry sports - it's in something like 95% of homes, which immediately makes it an upgrade over the Pac12 network. The trend for the league isn't good. But the CW isn't so bad. Also 4 schools - OrSt, Wazzu, Stanford and Cal - have a really strong incentive to hold this together. The 4 corner schools have some options, but the Big 12 isn't exactly the SEC here. And since the Big Ten seems cool on Oregon and Washington, they have an incentive to keep it together too. If the Big Ten or SEC come calling, I'm willing to give the league its last rites. But at the moment, it's not quite dead yet.
Moved
Frank... "no less clueless".. what a superb phrase. This belong's in Bartlett's book of quotations, I hope they give you credit.
Maybe someone will step in and offer them a weeknight lineup.
Tuesday and Wednesday nights are already reserved for MACtion. Maybe then can get Thursday night PACtion.
This simultaneously hilarious and interesting, but I don't think it would happen if for no other reason than the 4 corner schools would bolt for the Big 12.
On the one hand I'd like west coast football to keep being a thing, on the other hand if it's the 4, ugh, "most important brands" under the big ten banner i guess that's fine, on the other other hand i don't want the Big Ten to expand, on the other other other hand it got too big for me with Rutgers and Maryland - and apparently if they hadn't then the ACC would've taken Penn State.
I'd like the PacX to get a media deal - they're one of the most entertaining leagues, surprisingly deep - last year they had 3 schools in the top 15, and then ALSO USC and UCLA? I'm happy the Big 12 is surviving, I hope the forgotten 4 find homes, and the best way for most of this to happen is if the PacX remains. So that's what I'm rooting for. But if the Big 12 becomes the Big 16, Oregon and Washington will be fine, OrSt and Wazzu are probably headed to the Mountain West, and I've no idea about Stanford and Cal, but...ugh.
The B10 should acquire the P12 and run it like a separate subsidiary but with B10 management and oversight. The B10 could scrap the PACN and put P12 Tier 3 content on BTN. And they could arrange a regular series of B10/P12 football, basketball and other key matchups to boost/rehabilitate the P12. And the B10 would control all the P12 votes when it comes to NCAA governance and rules, CFP expansion, etc. I bet the B10 could work with our media partners to get the P12 a media deal in the $25-30 million range.
If only Thames was still around, ND football right after Dangermouse would get some viewers certainly...
The MWC (Mountain West) - their TV contract is through FOX.
I don't know. I know the 10:30 PM ET time slots on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU aren't as valuable as the earlier-in-the-day time slots. But neither are they invaluable. It's still a prime-time game on the West Coast, and 20% of Americans live in the MT and PT combined.
The only real options for those time slots are the Pac-12, MWC and BYU. MWC is out. BYU games are under the ESPN umbrella through the Big XII contract. But that's still only 6-7 possible late night games a year.
The Pac-12 seemingly has some value to ESPN simply because of this dynamic.
The thought of Disney selling espn makes me excited
The Pac 12 is just worthless without USC. You can argue on the field that losing USC isn't THAT big a deal because other than the McKay/Robinson/Carroll years, they've usually been pretty mediocre. But they're the only program with any value to TV on the west coast, and the Pac 12 lost them. It's insane to me that for years the Pac 12 didn't basically let USC dictate all policy given how vital USC is to their existence.
I don't think the Pac 12 ends up with more than the ACC per year, which is astounding considering how long ago the ACC deal was inked. It's just got the stink of death hovering on it. Even the Big East didn't feel this dead post-ACC raid because they at least had Big East Basketball as a thing to fall back on.
I don't see a lot of evidence the Big 10 wants the other Pac 12 programs either, honestly. I'm guessing the schools that care about football move to the Big 12 and I genuinely don't know what happens to schools like Cal and Stanford. Cal's had faculty pushes to get rid of football forever, they have a massive student housing problem, I think there's a genuine chance Cal becomes the first major conference team to just drop football altogether since WW2 and they turn the stadium into dorms.
The idea of college conferences as media entities is a very recent trend. The reason USC didn't "run the conference" is because nobody thought about it like this until the Big Ten Network in 2007. Even at that time, the main impetus for expansion was to get a conference championship game - not to create a TV empire. That's why the ACC went for Miami, not 'Cuse and Rutgers, in the early '00s.
I'm talking about over the last decade or so. USC has not been quiet over their displeasure at the way the league was being run. There was a story practically every offseason about USC being unhappy and considering independence that everyone shrugged off. The league should have spent the last five years basically re-orienting itself around placating USC, and it didn't.
I don't think it's good for the sport that the Pac 12 is gonna end up dead and the Rose Bowl irrevocably changed and that the idea of the Rose Bowl not existing is now a real possibility going forward. It's also just a microcosm of how fucked everything about modern America is. Something that meant a lot to millions of people is going to die because one guy who was made chief exec of something he did not understand in the slightest killed it, and then walked away a rich guy.
I will be saddened by the demise of the PAC. College football in the future will be less regional, less intimate, less authentic than in the past.
So one thing I've read/seen consistently is that adding teams isn't a months long process, it's a years long one. The slow moving pace of Oregon/Washington to the B1G is something that will take a long time to figure out. There's apparently a number of political things to figure out as well as conference fit, travel, tv value etc. Also, I think I read that the conference got numbers on what the tv deal would look like if those two schools were added. There's also the option to add them in without them getting a full share. Even the USC/UCLA thing took awhile to go down, so adding 2 new schools and not immediately adding 2 additional ones is probably just a prudent move and not a sign of a lack of interest.