Results vs. Recruiting – Michigan OK, Big Ten Stinks
I took a look at how results this year compare to the five year recruiting rankings. The five year recruiting rankings are found here: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/2/8/16990550/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class
For scoring a win over a team with a five year ranking above your own is +1 and a loss to a team with a lower recruiting ranking is -1. Michigan was +1 for the year, the win over Penn State. Our maximum potential score was +3 (Notre Dame and OSU are ranked higher than us). We ended up one win better than the recruiting says we should.
Here are the results for the Big Ten. Poor performance for most of the conference.
Only three teams outperformed their recruiting in 2018 with Purdue and Northwestern both having very good years. I would argue Michigan State had the worst year as Nebraska suffered a lot of turnover with the coaching switch and came in with a relatively high 5 year ranking. The same excuse does not apply to MSU.
If we look at the top ten we get this.
Even with the loss to Washington, Washington State had a great year relative to its recruiting. If someone is bored it would be interesting to see the scores for all teams and see if anyone out performed Washington State and Purdue.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
And I screwed that up. Here are the big ten results:
Purdue 5
Northwestern 4
Michigan 1
Indiana 0
Iowa 0
Ohio State -1
Penn State -2
Maryland -2
Rutgers -2
Wisconsin -2
Minnesota -2
Illinois -2
MI State -3
Nebraska -5
November 25th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Here are the Top Ten
Washington State 5
UCF 3
Notre Dame 2
Clemson 1
Michigan 1
Alabama 0
Georgia -1
Oklahoma -1
Ohio State -1
LSU -2
November 25th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Interesting analysis. It is all relative as it is very difficult for the likes of Alabama or OSU to get a positive score since their recruiting rankings are at the top.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Pretty sure that's the point.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
"Recruiting rankings don't matter trust the coaches"
- some fan who has watched UM lose 16 of 18 to OSU and fail to win a B1G title in 15 years.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Many of those losses occurred with teams laden with NFL talent.
God, you are terrible.
November 25th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
Urban Meyer has had the #1 recruiting class in the B1G every year he's been at OSU. He's 54-4 in the B1G and 7-0 against Michigan. I'm sure it's all just a coincidence though.
November 25th, 2018 at 5:43 PM ^
You should specify these losses, that may emphasize your point. A comment without something to back it up is just bluster
November 25th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
What I gather from this is that Michigan needs better players to get over the 10-2 hump.
November 25th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
It certainly would make it easier. This year we needed to win all of the games we should win and win 2 of 3 games we should not to win the big ten and make the playoff.
Ohio State only has to win the games they should win (based on recruiting rankings) to win the Big and make the playoff. They only have to win one game against a team they should not to win a national title.
A team like Northwestern has to win at least half of their games against teams with a better recruiting ranking to have a shot at a conference title
November 25th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
One huge point the "we lost to better talent" contingent misses is that Ohio State spends significant time during their entire season preparing for this game. Our guys say they don't, and I believe them.
How does a massively talented team look like butt against Purdue and Maryland and Minnesota and Nebraska? They were actually preparing for us instead of preparing to embarrass Purdue. They know the lasting memory is of this game and no other. Our guys do not know that.
Bo, Moeller, Carr, put time into this game all year. Hoke clearly did the same. Harbaugh says he doesn't. He's probably telling the truth, as bizarre as it sounds. They really start at game week, trying to win the next game. This is actually the only reasonable explanation for yesterday's coaching debacle. M has plenty of talent to compete with OSU.
November 25th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
Well, perhaps Hoke shouldn't have been doing that, and he wouldn't have lost to the Marylands and Minnesotas of the world.
Say what you will about Harbaugh, in games that matter (regular season games, not meaningless bowl games) the only terrible loss in my eyes is 2016 Iowa, and we all know about Night Kinnick. If you want to throw in 2017 MSU, fine, but the lack of a functioning QB and the weather are mitigating. Honestly, all of 2017 was a mess due to the QB situation, but even so he won every game you would expect and was in every other minus PSU. Here's the final CFP rankings for every regular season loss except the above two:
2015: #3 MSU (flukiest play of all time), #7 OSU, #22 Utah (first game, night road game)
2016: #3 OSU (ref screw job)
2017: #5 OSU, #6 Wisconsin, #9 PSU
2018: Likely #3 ND, Likely top 5 OSU
So, excusing the first game of his UM career and two meaningless bowl losses, he's lost 10 games: 3 to playoff teams, 2 to the first team out, and 3 more to teams ranked between 6th and 9th in the final CFP poll. That's 80% of his meaningful losses. The other two were at Night Kinnick and to MSU without a QB in a monsoon.
I guess what I'm getting at is, unlike his two predecessors, he's won almost every game he should. Maybe that's because he knows the talent hasn't been there across the board to look ahead to any one game. You say Hoke did so with OSU, yet the only time he beat them was when they were mediocre, and even that wouldn't have happened if Braxton Miller doesn't over throw a guy behind the defense with a minute left.
It seems the talent is in place to consistently beat MSU and PSU, but not yet OSU. Until that time, I'll gladly take a coach that gets us to that game with everything in reach and take our chances. Maybe that time will never come, I'm sure the SEC has been saying the same thing about Alabama for 10 years. OSU is a juggernaut on our schedule every year, one that every other non SEC West team doesn't have standing in their way. I think it will, but if it doesn't, it's not because of Harbaugh. There are plenty of other coaches that won't beat OSU either, but not many that will have the success outside of that game that Harbaugh has attained in 4 short years.
November 26th, 2018 at 7:25 AM ^
I support this assessment...I fully understand that this is my personal view and that there are legitimate divergent views. In general, I believe Michigan should not be trying to emulate the "means" of the Alabamas and OSUs of the college football world. I have said it before and I will interject it again, while I do not believe Jim Harbaugh is the best college football coach for a program who puts all its eggs in the "winning is everything" basket I do believe he is the #1 coach if you want your program to be the most holistic program-that takes all components of interscholastic sports into account.
My more thoughtful personal preference is for the more holistic approach to college athletics-though my belief is surely challenged by events like what took place on Saturday. But here, the university gets to decide its preference. I hope the Michigan administration stays the course.
November 25th, 2018 at 5:24 PM ^
Bo, Moeller, Carr, put time into this game all year. Hoke clearly did the same. Harbaugh says he doesn't.
Harbaugh said just the opposite during the week.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
Harbaugh says he thinks about this game 365 days a year, so this idea he doesn't is patently false. Ridiculous post.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:31 PM ^
What about the other 100 days?
November 25th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
I have seen other rankings the place Michigan with the 9th best roster based on recruiting rankings.
November 25th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
3 games against teams that recruit well and JH lost 2 of them.
OSU was an embarrassment, and ND would have been if they had Book at QB.
November 25th, 2018 at 3:22 PM ^
Wonder how many CB’s will shift from yesterday’s massacre
November 25th, 2018 at 6:19 PM ^
While the game plan against OSU was bad, my biggest takeaway from the game was just how far off Michigan is from OSU in the recruiting department. OSU clearly had the superior players from a size and speed standpoint at every position outside of a small few. It was even more apparent when comparing the backups. At the end of the day, that game was lost in the trenches on both sides of the ball - because we usually play teams with poor recruiting the schemes we run on both sides of the ball work. It's clear that there isn't a plan from this coaching staff on what to do when we have worse players.
They are either going to have to reach OSU level of recruiting and development (unlikely) or scheme differently to compensate for worse talent (also unlikely). I honestly don't think the coaches thought the team would be that bad in the trenches on Saturday and hopefully it serves as a wake up call. OTOH, it's also a testament to how poorly coached OSU is since it's clear their players don't care about showing up for over 1/2 the games in the season.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^
Recruiting rankings are great for identifying top tier, elite talent, but there are plenty of guys who slip through the cracks for one reason or another. Whether it's some guys are late bloomers or they can't or don't attend the camp circuits. Example, Chris Olave, WR for Ohio State. He wasn't a big time recruit because he had to sit out his Junior year of high school and didn't really attend many camps, but his Senior year tape was off the charts. I really wanted Michigan to go after him and from what I read, he would have committed to UM if they would have accepted it. Michigan never pushed for him and OSU comes in at the last minute and lands his pledge. I even commented in a thread last year that I really wanted Michigan to go after him because he was a steal. I don't know much about his season, but I watched him catch two touchdowns and block a punt that was returned for a touchdown in his first game in the rivalry. Harbaugh can recruit and he knows who can play at a championship level, so I'm not going to worry about recruiting rankings any more.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:50 AM ^
Chris Olave finished in the final top 247. OSU has had the #1 recruiting class in the B1G every year under Urban Meyer. He is 54-4 in the B1G and 7-0 against Michigan. Alabama finishes with the #1 class every year and they are the most dominant program in the country with 5 national titles in the last decade. These posts saying recruiting doesn't matter need to stop. Michigan hasn't won the B1G in 15 years. They are 2-16 vs OSU in the last 18 years. Can we for the love of god stop lying to ourselves about this stuff? Good lord.