Re-rating the BBall Freshman of 2012-'13
I haven't seen anything discussing this so I thought I'd pose it to you guys.
So I was wondering where this years basketball freshman would be ranked after the season has almost played out now.
McGary was kinda falling a bit in his ranking towards the end of his senior season and that was kind of justified for the 1st half of the season but now he seems like one of the top 5 freshman, simply dominating and shooting well too.
Nik was top 100 but barely, he seems to me like top 20-30 now. GRIII potentially is still looking accurate on his ranking, Spike and Caris have been very clutch in instances too. As a class these guys to me turned out to be a top 5 class.
People talk about Mitch getting even stronger and leaner but just think about the other guys too, they'll all be studlier looking. If all these guys come back and next years frosh prove to be as good as their rankings, it's gonna be another fun ride, but I do realize we have some business to take care of first.
It has only happened once, and that was in 1979. Michigan State won the NCAA and Indiana won the NIT. In fact, Indiana beat Purdue in the championship game that year.
I could swear Michigan won the NIT back in the Amaker years. First time I've been wrong.
Michigan won the NIT in 2004 under Amaker. They also won it in 1984 and 1997 (although the latter was vacated). I think we are interpreting jaylee714's question differently. I read it as, "When was the last time Big Ten teams won both the NCAA and NIT in the same year?" whereas I think you are reading it as, "Which Big Ten teams have won both the NCAA and NIT at some point in their program's history?"
Let's just get OUR part of the equation!
When he's in shape, he's the #3 player in the country. But when he was +20 pounds and just fouling everyone, he deserved the rankings drop.
The only person I think changed significantly in my eyes is Spike. He plays vastly better than I'd expect a no-name freshman PG would play
I wouldn't necessarily say to keep his stock down, but rather to get him into playing shape and helping him adjust to the speed of the college game. His hustle was never in question, but his consistency was. Obviously once he was able to put it all together his initial ranking is not hard to see.
Beilein - "e" before "i" both times.
He looks much more comfortable than I would expect - not only because he was an untouted freshman but because he's often coming in to relieve Burke and has to feel some pressure from that. Sweet passes, clutch threes, no problem.
/swoons
Spike don't play with girls
He plays typical Indiana based basketball. Hardnosed and always a winner. Great kid and player. These kids continue to make Indiana look like the greatest basketball state in the nation (Which I truly believe is, but I'm not a homer.....).
Sorry for the double post....
This freshman class is pretty dang good if we've gotten this far. McGary is a stud. Robinson while disappearing for the second half of the season, has made himself known once again in the tourney. As for Nik, I don't think I've seen a guy shoot as spot on as he has shown he can (Plus, he's not just a shooter). Caris made a great later season emergence, coming off the bench to provide some solid defense in key moments. And last but definitely not least, Spike. It's hard enough coming off the bench for the best PG in the nation, but wow in the Florida game. He is a guy that works hard and may not be the tallest or most athletic, but he makes up for it with his hustle. Overall, I can't think of a better Freshman class in the nation, other than the many Calipari teams, since the Fab 5. Proud of them.
That mid air baseball pass was phenomenal
cemented that studly description for Spike for me. He has a positve energy when he steps on the floor for us. Next year we will all appreciate the experience he has gotten this year.
they are exceeding their very high expectations.
buy?
I'm confused...
The best thing about this class is that they are all likely to come back, which allows for some continuity in this one and done era. Yet they're good enough that the NBA will come calling sooner rather than later.
Contrast that with Calipari, who is putting together college basketball's version of the Miami Heat, but gets them for 1 season only. And it's a tossup to see if he can get them playing together.
until he read about Kentucky's incoming class.
there's no question that Kentucky's 2013 incoming class is the most talented in college basketball history, but cohesion is just as important.
We need to beat Syracuse before we even worry about Louisville
Damn you Brian for posting that Louisville piece! DAMN YOU!!!!
Beat Louisville? WE ARE NOT THERE YET!
Beat Syracuse!
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllly tempting the basketball gods this week. Everyone needs to stop talking about Louisville
In this one and done era, if you can play, you're playing not sitting.
1. Glenn Robinson III
2. Nik Stauskas
3. Mitch McGary
4. Spike Albrecht
5. Caris LeVert
6-100. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Here's DX's most recent top 100 freshmen update, which was last week. Take whatsoever grains of salt you wish:
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/NCAA-Freshmen/
9. Glenn Robinson
41. Mitch McGary
47. Nik Stauskas
Others of note:
14. Gary Harris (State)
30. Yogi Ferrell (Indiana)
31. Sam Dekker (Wisconsin)
51. Adam Woodbury (Iowa)
65. Jake Layman (Maryland)
71. Jeremy Hollowell (Indiana)
78. Shaquille Cleare (Maryland)
84. Hanner Perea (Indiana)
90. Amadeo Della Valle (Ohio)
Looking at the sophs likely to return, OSU has a big class with a lot of talent that hasn't quite put it together (Williams, Scott, Ross, Thompson) but the B1G is otherwise pretty empty on that front. Presumably Craft and Thomas are gone (2nd rounders, iirc, per DX), but if not they'll have their entire team back plus a year of experience.
Iowa is a pretty good sleeper pick if Marble and Basabe come back. White, Woodbury plus those two give them a nice core.
For State, a lot depends on what Payne and Harris do. I'd guess they'll come back, but who knows. If they do, they'll be very good. Replacing Nix isn't that big a deal. Not landing Parker was though. Parker, Harris and Payne likely would've made them B1G favorites.
Indiana will have a lot of talent, much of it being asked to handle far greater usage. I'd guess they'll be fine given the pedigree, but there's some variance there.
M is basically in the same boat. We (hopefully) lose one fewer lottery pick, but no Vonleh in the incoming class. If GRIII stays, the talent level will once again be very high but we'll also be once again dependent on young guys. It would be nice if THJr came back, obvs, but especially because he could help offset the youth at PG.
Wisconsin will presumably be Wisconsin. Goddamnit.
Still lotta ins, lotta outs given the draft, but the contenders look like they'll be able to stay on top. Iowa might be able to force its way into the conversation. Purdue could give it a go if Hammons really breaks out, but who else is going to score on that team? Minnesota loses its two best players. IL hasn't recovered from Weber yet, but supposedly are in the running for Drew Crawford. NW, PSU and Nebraska are bad.
Picking from the favorites is a real slog because everyone has question marks even if everyone likely to come back actually does.
I'd be really surprised if Craft left. I think he's the case for a guy who could spend a summer working intensively with a shooting coach to push his stock up. Thomas is kind of in Hardaway's situation, probably going to get drafted as high this year as they'll ever get drafted. Ross remains their big wildcard. He's really talented but super inconsistent. If they don't get scoring from him, I just don't know how they score the basketball if Thomas leaves. They will be a huge pain defensively, though.
I'm shocked the have Ferrell rated that high. I just did not see much from him at all. He looked like a dime a dozen point guard. Indiana's going to lose a ton of scoring, but they have good players, if poorly coached.
I'll bet Harris comes back. I think Z-Bo has been their only one and done during the Izzo years. That draft slot has to be tempting but I'll bet that's inflated because of his shoulder, which has to worry NBA teams. I think most people at MSU think Payne's gone. If both those guys stay, I think they're the clear favorite. They only lose Nix, which at this point is probably addition by subtraction.
Good call on Iowa. I think FRAN! is a really good coach and they have some talent. I'm happy about that because Iowa plays attractive basketball and likes to push the pace, which god knows this league needs. I think Purdue can be dangerous if Hammonds gets on the same page as Painter.
Right now, assuming that Zeller, Oladipo, Burke and Thomas go pro, I'd put it at something like this:
MSU (if Payne stays)
UM/IU
Iowa/Wisconsin (who will clearly be 4th, because they always finish top 4)
Purdue/OSU (Thomas back bumps them up by Michigan and Indiana)
-----
Illinois/Minnesota/Penn State (if Frazier's healthy)/Northwestern (if they keep Crawford)
Nebraska
I've heard that next year's class is supposed to be amazing? I kind of just assumed that would somehow convince Craft to go? But yeah he'd be really selling low on himself. He just had his worst season shooting from 3. That's got to have him thinking he can do better.
And he's a much better NBA value if he suddenly develops a serious 3pt threat. OSU could have been #1 this year if Craft can shoot, imo. So yeah, fair enough.
I don't have anything really to say about Ferrell. I barely noticed the guy. He was what, the 5th option on the floor? But yeah there's not a whole lot to like in his numbers. I don't know how his ORtg is that good, because his TO% sucks and his shooting was pretty meh. But scouts seem to like him.
Overall, I like your tiers. I think you're underrating OSU a bit though. I'd put them with Iowa/Wisconsin. The more I watched Thomas, the more I noticed how little he tried on defense. He gave back a lot of his points. I think Ross and Thompson will replace a lot of his production even if it looks even uglier than it did this year. Craft will regress to his mean and there will be talk about how he's better than he's ever been even though he'll be shooting at his career averages. I think it'll mostly come down to how much they cough it up.
You're probably right to like Purdue. This was Painter's worst team since his first in '06.
Definitely not an NBA level starter, but I could see him spending many years in the NBA as a quality role player backup.
GRIII I'd probably rank a little lower just because of his overall inconsistency throughout the year. Still a top prospect, just maybe not a 5 star. If he stays another year, though, I fully expect him to make me eat my words.
Stauskas is probably right about where he should be. If I recall, a 70-ish prospect. His bouts of inconsistency are counter-balanced by his ridiculous hot streaks, so if I did the rankings, I'd probably put him where he is now.
Albrecht should have gotten some bigger offers than frickin App State. He's not Trey Burke, but he's got a lot more talent than his recruiting ranking suggests.
LeVert is right about where he should be.
...you can see (HERE) just how much of a factor Michigan's freshmen were this season in the Big Ten. For example:
- Offensive rating: Glenn Robinson is 1st (128.01) and Nik Stauskas is 3rd (124.05)
- Floor percentage: Glenn Robinson is 1st (62.69%)
- Effective FG percentage: Glen Robinson, Nik Stauskas and Mitch MgGary occupy the 2nd through 4th positions for conference leaders.
The complete list of leaders in various categories is behind the link, but I would have to say that if we're talking about a rating in terms of impact, it's a very high rating.
I thought this was going to link me to an actual article re-rating of the freshman on Scout, Rivals, ESPN, etc.
I wonder how I could've ever been led to believe that...
Very disappointed, I love those articles.
They missed on Albrecht. He's probably not who you'd want as a starting PG in the B1G in the long-term. But he certainly is good enough to be at least a role player. Which means that he is good enough that he should have had better offers than Appalachian State which is pretty low on the D1 ladder. He should have had some interest from at least MAC or Horizon league caliber teams.
McGary, you can see that his motor is just off the charts. The impressive thing to me has been the little 10'-12' jumper that he is flashing as well as how good he is at driving from the top of the key. His defensive ability to create steals and his passing too in the open court. His game is pretty well rounded and with him now in shape he looks a lot more like the 5 star #2 or #3 ranked recruit as he was ranked at one time than the #30 type he would up as. Underrated.
GR3 was probably rated correctly. He's too deferential at this point but the athleticism is excellent and he has a pretty smooth jumper and he can drive too. The SDSU game is a nice example of what he can do. I really hope he comes back and becomes an assertive player because he could wind up being a really high draft pick and make a big difference in how good next year's team is.
Stauskas is about right. He really is a great shooter. I'm not sure how much more upside there is to his offensive game as he doesn't have 5 star type athleticism. But he will still improve and he can become a much better player if his defense improves.
LeVert seems underrated to me. I know some folks don't like his game and his frame is so small. But he is quick and has long arms. Plays hard. Like his handle. Obviously he is overwhelmed and the redshirt probably would have been a good thing but this is our year so you had to play him. He's scored a ton in HS. Not a top 100 talent but he was a late bloomer who should have been attractiing more attention.