QB transfers and QB recruitment - some background
Transfers
After last week’s game against Rutgers there was discussion about QB transfers and assessment. Here is some background information on recent QB transfers of note. Quarterbacks are more probably more sensitive to playing time than other positions. Without any game tape it is hard to imagine a recruit or draft pick will be selected to play at a higher level
- If the system changes, a move may be needed. Troy Aikman was at the University of Oklahoma and was the starting QB as a sophomore in 1985. He then broke an ankle and coach Barry Switzer switched from a pro-I to a wishbone attack and won the national championship with Jamelle Holieway. Switzer decided this was the way the team should be thereafter. In the meanwhile, Aikman transferred to UCLA and the rest is history. (Oklahoma and UCLA football wiki pages)
- If the situation just isn’t happening. Russell Wilson was a successful QB for NC State for 3 seasons. Originally he thought he might pursue a baseball career (he was a fourth round pick for the Colorado Rockies in 2010) but decided to use his last year at Wisconsin. As we know that was one of the greatest one and done years and led to him being drafted in the NFL. Another angle that Michigan fans may appreciate. Scott Frost was a QB at Stanford under the late Bill Walsh in 1993 (David Shaw was a WR, and now HC). He left after 1994 when Tyrone Willingham took over and he went to Nebraska to join Tom Osborne. (NC State and Stanford football wiki pages)
- The other guy(s) are just better. Baker Mayfield was one of several QBs that saw the field for the Texas Tech Red Raiders in 2013. The following year the team had a freshman QB named Patrick Mahomes that later went on to do some things in the NFL; Baker transferred to Oklahoma and it worked out well for both of them. (Texas Tech and Oklahoma wiki pages)
- The school decides it can’t or won’t keep you. Cam Newton was at Florida in 2007-2008 behind Tim Tebow. He had run ins with the law and he transferred to Blinn Junior College in Texas and led them to a 2009 national junior college title before going to Auburn in 2010 and winning the Heisman and the 2011 BCS title over Oregon. (Cam Newton wiki pages)
QB Recruitment
In the book MoneyBall: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis, there is an interesting discussion with the then manager of the Oakland A’s Billy Beane. He recounted how as a high school phenom he had a scholarship offer to Stanford as a QB and an outfielder. He was tall and rangy and looked like a great power hitting OF.
He decided to go the baseball route and turned down the Stanford offer (which his mom never ceased to remind him in the years that followed) and go right into a MLB minor league contract, but he was no Al Kaline, and his baseball career fizzled.
If Cade McNamara turns to be the real thing, he might not be the ideal height but his high school numbers (admittedly, a potential soft ground to base any predictions due to varying systems and the quality of teams) were good: 2990 yards on 282 attempts during his senior year with 39 TDs and 6 Ints and a 62.8% completion rate. [source Maxpreps.com]
Joe Milton during his senior year had 1317 yards on 188 attempts, with 10 TDs and 6 Ints and a 47.9% completion rate. [source Maxpreps.com]
The remaining games will help sort this out. If he does a credible job, it may turn out despite being shorter (like Russell Wilson and Doug Flutie) McNamara maybe a productive QB. If it turns out the splash was just a one game wonder, then it is another example why high school numbers are deceptive.
But it shows the UM scouts are looking not just at kids who have the prototypical appearance but also kids who put up big numbers – so it seems they are using both the eyeball test and analytics.
Anyhow, we’ll find out over the next few games!
Go Blue!
November 24th, 2020 at 8:28 AM ^
TL;DR
- Sometimes QBs are good or bad and transfer and the results are good or bad.
- Cade has better HS numbers than Milton but until we see more film we don't know who is better at Michigan, Cade might be a star.
- Billy Beane should have gone to Stanford
November 24th, 2020 at 8:40 AM ^
Hopefully, Cade turns out to be the next P. Mahomes! Who knows...
November 24th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
Then he can get the McNamara rates from Jake at State Farm.
November 24th, 2020 at 8:54 AM ^
JM was Deandre Francois backup in high school at Olympia, and didn't get playing time until his senior season. Calling him a project was probably an understatement (50% completion % in HS??) , but Pep loved his potential. It was Pep who convinced JH to offer JM a scholly, however the staff thought for 2 years they had DTR, therefore JM was the backup plan. DTR went to UCLA and the rest is history. Personally I think the team should have shown more attention to Theo Day, and in general the State of Michigan recruits.
We must address the State of Michigan recruiting, we must hire a guy who has blazed the trails in Michigan and has resources and a good reputation. TW was that guy, but wanted more and butted heads with JH. Not saying we need a Curtis Blackwell, but maybe hire a Khalid Hill or Grant Perry to start these in-roads. Say what you want about the King brothers, and whether or not they are worthy of a Michigan scholly, but to miss on both Clarkston boys, Payne, Edwards, and Benny is a disaster. The only silver lining is apparently JH knows this and ideally addresses it ASAP.
Frosted Lettuce 1-0
Cheers
November 24th, 2020 at 9:24 AM ^
I'm not feeling the Frosted Lettuce reference. Per Urban Dictionary:
November 24th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
Totally agree we need to do better with instate recruiting. It may not matter on the micro level if we get a suitable replacement from Florida, or wherever, but on a macro level the failure to cultivate relationships can become problematic. MSU will wither and die if we cut off their ability to get quality players from the state. That should be a priority even if it isn't THE priority.
A while back I mentioned we should consider hiring Ron Bellamy. Those who know the details better said it was more valuable having him at West Bloomfield than it was in Ann Arbor but as we have seen with Cass Tech (Wilcher), and West Bloomfield, good players playing under alums don't always choose Michigan. Bellamy is a guy who played at a high level, and has produced results as a coach. We needs guys like that in the pipeline. To me it parallels hiring Chris Partridge (which went rather well) but Partridge had no allegiance to Michigan therefore he took off for more money. Bellamy may be willing to stick around and ascend the ranks. While we do not need a "Michigan Man" to coach Michigan it is startling how few high level coaches we have as suitable options (I wonder if Larry Foote (current LB coach of Tampa Bay) would listen to an offer - I can't think of someone who would be a bigger hit in Detroit that him). Its good to have guys out there who covet the Michigan head coaching job even if they never get the opportunity.
November 24th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Partridge didn’t get more money at Ole Miss, same $625k salary. But he got a Co-DC title.
November 24th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
and warm weather
November 24th, 2020 at 10:57 AM ^
I'm not sure Billy Beane should have gone to Stanford. He did end up as a GM at the top level of baseball and built a team that went to the World Series. There's not a whole lot else to accomplish above that level that a Stanford degree would have changed.
November 24th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
In regards to Beane........ why? He did what he loved and his experience drove him to the moneyball philosophy. It is why he is who he is so he should not of gone to Stanford.
November 24th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
i wasn't making the case that he should have -- but OP seems to imply that he was a "washout" and that standford may have been a better destination for him than the minors
November 24th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
On the other hand, A.J Hinch was the 1992 National Gatorade Player of the Year in baseball. He was drafted in the second round of the Major League Baseball draft but elected to attend Stanford University, where he was a third-round pick after his junior year in 1995. He decided to return to school and was again a third-round pick as a senior in 1996. He ended up playing catcher for the Oakland A's from 1999 to 2000, where Billy Beane was GM.
November 24th, 2020 at 8:42 AM ^
Very informative post, but I don’t understand the short QB argument. Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and Drew Brees all look pretty darn good.
Joe Theismann and Sonny Jurgensen were on the shorter side too.
November 24th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
Cade doesn’t really seem that short anyways and is even taller than all of them. Shea looks like a pipsqueak in comparison.
November 24th, 2020 at 8:57 AM ^
I know but it seems to crop up. It isn't as if teams aren't already thinking about throwing lanes.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:00 AM ^
As long as they show they can see the field and don't have a propensity to get balls batted down at the line there is no issue. Cade hasn't had any issues so far. Shea was more or less his height.
When you think of the perfect body type for QB, you probably are thinking of Joe Milton measurables but intangibles are probably even more important.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:08 AM ^
This! Intangibles are probably more important than physical attributes in my opinion.
Does a guy have the mental aspects to play QB, can he read a defense, can he lead a team? These are very important evaluations to make.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^
I kind of relate it to how basketball players often turn out. Sometimes players can make it to the NBA based purely on their physical abilities and they become reliant on it and never really learn how to shoot, pass, or learn the game. Others with more physical limitations have to learn the game at a much higher level in order to succeed. Think of John Wall vs Chris Paul. Occasionally there will be the player that can put the two together (LeBron, Jordan, Mahomes) but that is obviously exceedingly rare.
November 24th, 2020 at 7:11 PM ^
Occasionally there will be the player that can put the two together (LeBron, Jordan, Mahomes) but that is obviously exceedingly rare.
Nothing drives me crazier than when people talk about LeBron’s basketball IQ as if he were some sort of genius. The reason he has failed in the Finals so many times is because there’s nothing but hollow space between his ears. Spoelstra was the only coach able to get LeBron to actually play in a system, and he dumbed down the offense and focussed on defense to make it work. If the refs would actually call charges on LeBron, he would be a mediocre player. Because they don’t and LeBron spent his first couple of years in the NBA juicing, people just get out of his way.
November 25th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^
Wow! I'll leave it at that.
November 24th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
I agree. In the limited view we've had of him, Cade seemed to wear the QB position like a tailored silk suit. Milton was like the teenager who outgrew his pants and shirt and has his wrists and ankles sticking out. Some people are just made to play QB. Just ask Tom Brady. They showed footage last night during the MNF game of his workout at the Combine. He ran a 5.28 40 and looked like such an awkward plodder. But there's no arguing that he was born to play QB in the NFL.
November 24th, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^
I’ve never seen a tailored silk suit.
November 24th, 2020 at 8:45 AM ^
Wish Money Ball Billy would have went to Stanford and maybe would not have put baseball on this "analytic - nerd" driven disaster that it's turning into. One can only imagine the reaction of Tommy Lasorda, Earl Weaver or Billy Martin if some Vineyard Vines wearing nerd came down to the dugout to tell him to pull a pitcher who was dominating a World Series game like Blake Snell was. That recording would be PRICELESS!
November 24th, 2020 at 9:01 AM ^
Do you realize that literally every single MLB club does this now? It's universally accepted as the best way to run a team. The Red Sox took Beane's methodology and ended the Curse of the Bambino. The Cubs used it to end the Curse of the Goat. To think that baseball is still run by a bunch of old dudes going off their gut instinct is to have a fundamental misunderstanding of the game today.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:21 AM ^
Yeah I hate trying to learn more too
November 24th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Earl weaver was into analytics before it was a thing. He had every player’s traits mapped out and knew how and when to take advantage of this. He did this before computers were a thing (he had copious notes in those small note books). Billy Martin was an old school by the seat of his pants baseball guy.
...and he was great in arguing balls/strikes.
November 24th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
weaver platooned guys as much or more than anyone back in his day.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:04 AM ^
5. Sitting tight as a second & third stringer on a great team with better players ain't all that bad.
Matt Cassel spent his entire USC Trojan career as a backup behind Heisman Trophy winners Carson Palmer and Matt Lienart. During his four seasons at USC, Cassel completed 20-of-33 passes for 192 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. Cassel then went on to play for 14 seasons in the NFL as a journeyman QB, his most notable stints with the Patriots (backing up the GOAT) and Chiefs. In most cases, he was regarded as the most popular player on the roster.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:42 AM ^
Given Cassel was a decent NFL QB for a few years probably means he would have been a great college QB. He was a 7th round pick as a back up. If he had transferred to another school so he could be a starter, he probably could have played himself into a much higher draft status. Good players will often find a way regardless but I wouldn't say Cassel benefited from staying at USC.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:10 AM ^
Milton is good
McNamara is great
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16188291/usa_today_12528887.jpg)
November 24th, 2020 at 9:41 AM ^
C'mon man. Great ? He did it against Rutgers and I'm not trying to diminish what he did but we heard this shit about Milton at the beginning of the year. My point: let's wait and see what he does for a couple more games.
November 24th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
Exactly. Joe Milton's stats vs Minnesota were 15-22 for 225 yards; 1 TD; 0 INT; Passer Rating of 169.1. Plus 8 rushes for 52 yards and a TD.
After one game, Milton looked like a solid starter for this season, and maybe a poor man's Cam Newton. Of course, after five games, no one is claiming that now.
McNamara had a fine performance vs Rutgers, but he hasn't even played four quarters as a starter yet. So let's pump the brakes on labeling him "great" or even "good" until the evidence comes in.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^
Cam Newton (or his dad) got paid ALOT of money to go to Auburn.
November 24th, 2020 at 9:25 AM ^
Now do DT's
November 24th, 2020 at 9:48 AM ^
Is height really an issue? Cade McNamara is listed at 6'1". That seems plenty tall to be a successful college QB.
Baker Mayfield is listed at 6'1"
Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Lamar Jackson, Taysom Hill, and Jimmy Garappolo are all listed at 6'2"
November 24th, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^
Mcnamara is the next Drew Brees don't @ me
November 24th, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^
Interestingly, Brees was mentioned as a comparison when McNamara was in HS.
Also, Gattis mentioned to Harbaugh on a podcast that McNamara was Alabama's #1 rated QB on its board for that recruiting class.
November 24th, 2020 at 10:33 AM ^
we have to give Ruger their "s" back after taking us to 3 OTs
November 24th, 2020 at 2:20 PM ^
but you took away their "t"
November 24th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
I'll say it here.
McNamara is gonna go down as the best QB we've had since Henne, and will be a star. Ace or Seth made fun of me on the podcast for saying that, so be it... so when I'm shown to be right, they'll give me 10K points.
Ask yourself, has a younger QB in his first live game, play as well as he did ? He had one errant low pass, the entire game... otherwise was essentially flawless... even when Zinter was a turnstile and about to get sacked for minus ten yards, he dumps off an incomplete, saving the line of scrimmage. Shrewd fans see how good this kid is. And consider, he has been in the program effectively one year. Only running QBs like a Denard do ok so early, but not a pocket QB. And consider, this is behind a OL with five new starters, three of which are somewhat freshmen, and missing its two tackles, and in a shortened offseason that gave alot of practice time to two QBs ahead of him. And won on the road, vs a fine coach, throwing four tds in one half. Read that again.
Yeah, you'll say it was vs Rutgers.. well with Schiano and all the transfers he got, this isn't the old Rutgers.
November 24th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
It was one game against Rutgers. Chill.
November 24th, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^
While I agree, I think this Rutgers team is better than that Rutgers team. Schiano is a much better coach than Chris Ash and it shows.
November 24th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
Peters went for 10-14, 124 yds and 1 TD against Rutgers in his first meaningful game action. Let's pump the brakes and see if he gets the chance to do something BP couldn't do and that's prove his worth against OSU. Consider this: Does JH even make a play for Shea if Peters played well against OSU?
EDIT: Should've looked up at the previous reply.
November 24th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
10-14 with 124yds and 1TD in an entire game is a lot different than Cade's 27-36 for 260yds and 4TD's + another on the ground, and Cade didn't even play for the majority of the first half! Not only that, but all of his incompletions were either throwaways to avoid a sack, or fairly accurate balls that still gave the receiver a chance at it. The young man can ball.
November 24th, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^
Absolutely. Cade played 35 regulation minutes and his offense scored 35 points. That is so, so different from the Peters game where he made simple reads and threw low-risk passes.
November 24th, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
Point a Minute McNamara?
Very catchy but let’s not put too much pressure on the kid just yet.
November 24th, 2020 at 8:21 PM ^
I think he looked great; however, what gives me pause is the change in mentality from coming in as second-string guy for the faltering starter to actually being the starter. Different mindset, if he handles that just as well, I'm a believer.
November 24th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Best QB since Henne? Denard was the star. He wasn't a great passer but was dynamic that defense has to respect his legs which allowed the offense to make explosive plays out of it.
November 24th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
I would love a QB with Milton’s measurables but I would rather one with the intangibles that McNamara has shown in the last two games. Hopefully it’s not another mirage.
November 24th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
I still can't believe Russell Wilson bailed on the Rockies (I live in Colorado). He could have had a long athletic career without having to evade 300-pound linemen.
I'm sure he regrets his decision.
s/