Pickin' and Grinnin' - AFC/NFC Championship Games

Submitted by xtramelanin on

Mates,

Down to 4 teams left with the Super Bowl in 2 weeks.   Tom Terrific v. Manning for the 412 th  but final time is the first game, starting at 3:00 on CBS.  Weather supposed to be a high of 50 with a chance of rain.  

The Panthers vs. the Cards in Carolina is the second game, starting at 6:40 on FOX.  Sunny and 35 degress for the Carolina game.   The spread and over/under for each are as follows:

New England               3                   @ Denver

Over/under = 44 1/2 pts.

@ Carolina                  3                    Arizona

Over/under = 47 1/2 pts.

Who are you picking, and why? 

 

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gopoohgo

January 23rd, 2016 at 11:01 PM ^

Pats to cover.  Chris Harris (Denver's best slot corner) is playing with one arm, will not be able to get a jam on Edelman, set's the table to the Pat's spread offense.

Carolina to cover.  Cam get's the headlines, but their D has been amazing.

 

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Perkis-Size Me

January 23rd, 2016 at 11:09 PM ^

Pats - 35
Broncos - 21
Brady gets the best of Manning again. Manning just isn't the same QB anymore, and Brady is seemingly ageless.

Cardinals - 21
Panthers - 24
Two of the best teams in the NFL, but Panthers have a big time edge in the QB department. And this time of year that's the position that matters most.



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goblue1213

January 24th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^

Yes Cam is better than Palmer. But I think anyone that says that it's a huge difference is off. Plus, Palmer has so many more weapons than Cam does. Fitz, Floyd, and brown are better than pretty much anyone Carolina has. Yes Olsen is a beast, but he's one man. And the arolina receivers don't scare anyone. Cards over Panthers Pats over Broncos Brady fonds a way to beat the Cards and win another ring.

Joined: 01/09/2011

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Bigku22

January 24th, 2016 at 10:24 AM ^

Are the biggest sucker bet you can make, the casinos best friend. Only time you should even considering parlay is some type of small wager high return combination (like 4-5 team combo for $5, or parlaying two underdog money lines). Or even smarter, just don't do it. 

Here's a link (wizard of odds is the best data on the internet for this content) http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-parlay/

Teasers in the NFL (never tease college) can be profitable, if you're betting them properly. Teasing across key numbers (3, 7, 10). Most sharp guys I know bet mostly single games with the occasional teaser. 

However, in dealing with a sport with as much random variance as football, betting single games is still the best strategy. 

Joined: 05/23/2013

MGoPoints: 3019

titanfan11

January 24th, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^

I only do them if I feel there is a tie-in.  So, in the AFC you might say Broncos win only if it is low scoring, so parlay Denver +3 and under.  If it is different games, might be better off doing single bets.  

 

 

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mGrowOld

January 24th, 2016 at 2:30 PM ^

And my record on parlays this year would certainly affirm this to be true.  But I bet for fun and entertainment, not to change my standard of living, so a parlay with a nice payout is more "fun" even though the odds are stacked against me.  So I put down $100 on a Pats/Panthers parlay.

Hopefully my bet is still alive for game 2

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MGoPoints: 213291

LV Sports Bettor

January 24th, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

but if they're a 2-team correlated parlay (meaning if one side of the parlay wins than the other side of the parlay is more than likely to win now also) you have a tremendous edge and any sports book nowadays with a pulse will not allow one of these plays to go thru.

For example say early in the CFB season Baylor is playing Louisiana Monroe and the line is -38 and the total on the game is 50. That's a correlated parlay.

There's a specific math formula out there that off the top of my head I can't remember as it's been so long since I've done one of these but trust me long-term wise these carry as big of an edge that a sports bettor can find.


 

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Everyone Murders

January 24th, 2016 at 8:01 AM ^

NE over Denver because of altitude. The higher altitude means less atmospheric pressure, thus deflated balls. As we all know, that's the only way Brady can win. (Pay no attention to the second half against Indy last year.). [Edit - Ehhh, upon reflection, wouldn't the higher altitude and lower atm mean higher internal pressure, based on the (false) premise that the balls would be inflated in Foxboro? Put another way, my joke is bad, and I feel bad. Patriots win anyway.] Carolina over AZ because Cam Newton is a force of nature. Seriously.

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MGoWorld

January 23rd, 2016 at 11:15 PM ^

I don't have the ability to start a post, but EJ Price is on his visit to Auburn and posted on Twitter: "pocket full of money kind of hard to keep my pants up." Tweet since deleted but lives on at rivals. Tried to paste page here, but copy and paste doesn't work. Look it up and form your own conclusions.

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Blue since day 1

January 23rd, 2016 at 11:18 PM ^

both over. Hmu tomorrow when i get these right because i guarantee it will happen i would money on this.

Joined: 01/18/2016

MGoPoints: -134

Bigku22

January 23rd, 2016 at 11:20 PM ^

The definition of why Vegas wins money. Everybody thinks the Pats blowout Denver, 90% plus of the money is on NE, but the spread has remained at 3-3.5. The pats defense is banged up, they can't run the ball, and their O line is trash. I believe NE wins but doesn't cover. Couple cappers I know cap this game at NE -1 or a PK. The value is on Denver. Also, I think Zona wins outright. Best bet of the weekend NE/Den under 44.5

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Bigku22

January 24th, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^

Rarely will there be any advantage in high profile NFL games, most sharp guys mostly avoid NFL playoffs and college bowl season. Denver has value but I wouldn't make a big wager against NE in this spot. Arizona has some small value, but it depends how much stock you put into Palmer looking pretty poor last week and the defense not being the same without Honey badger. 

In sports gambling, the higher profile the sport/event the less edge you will find. For example, there's very likely a random small school college basketball game today that has significantly more edge than any NFL game, its just the general public wants to wager on the NFL. 

The smart play is mostly avoiding these games, I have a couple small wagers and some player props. I will be betting on whichever NFC team advances for the SB. 

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Felix.M.Blue

January 23rd, 2016 at 11:23 PM ^

Wouldn't want to bet on either game.

I want the Pats to crush Denver but I think it will be a close game. The more people I see say the Pats are going to win by a lot, the more concerned I get.

New England doesn't have a great run defense. If they can limit the run then I think it's all good.

NE should have hired Phil Niekro to toss the DB's passes this week to ready them for Peyton.

I hope Arizona wins but Carson was bad last week. If he doesn't improve on that Arizona is done. If Carson is still like last week Carolina will kill them. The Pack dropped 5 picks in that game last week.

Joined: 10/22/2011

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MGoJeezy

January 24th, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^

Broncos/Zona , Over for both.

Lotta people have counted Peyton out. If you watched their last game closely he easily throws for 300 without the 8 Drops. Call me crazy I actually thought he threw the ball extremely well, didn't look like earlier in the year.The only thing that loses them this game is Kubiaks extremely conservative play calling and inability to run an offense that plays to its strengths. The run game has been sub par at best and they seem to be content with running their heads into a brick wall. Almost the opposite of harbaughs philosophy this year.

And just gotta guy feelin on Zona



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