Pickin' and Grinnin'- AFC/NFC Championship Games

Submitted by xtramelanin on

Good Morning All and Happy Sunday,

Its the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games today.  For those interested, I thought folks might like to pick the point spreads and the over/under for both games.   For those unfamiliar with either concept, the point spread is the amount that the favorite team which is listed first in both games is expected to win by.  Your 'job' is to guess if you think they will win by that many points.  If you do think they will 'cover the spread' (win by at least that many points), then you pick them and if you don't think so, then pick the underdog.  The 'over/under' is just as simple:  you decide if you think the teams' combined points in each game will be more or less than the over/under point spread, and you pick accordingly.

This week's line is:

Seattle                7 1/2            Green Bay

over/under          46 1/2 pts

New England      7                  Indianapolis

over/under           54 pts

Editorial comments about your choices are welcome.   If you wanted a 'Whatcha drinkin' Sunday Morning' thread this can be that too, and my answer is cold-brewed coffee, as per usual.  No matter what, have a restful day and hopefully you will be enjoying the fellowship of your family and friends throughout.

 

 

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xtramelanin

January 18th, 2015 at 7:29 AM ^

Seattle - I think the Seahawks are rested and healthy, and are going to beat GB like a rented mule.

Over (Sea/GB) - Lots of Seahawk points, some GB.  Blowout.

Indianapolis -  I was impressed with their defense and as much as I want the NE Brady's to win, this is my upset pick.

Under (NE/Indy) - Lots of defense.

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CoachBP6

January 18th, 2015 at 7:40 AM ^

6-2 so far in these playoffs. Today I like both home teams to cover, and both games to go over. I have a gut feeling if Devonte Adams can show out, and rodgers is healthy enough to move within the pocket, that the packers could pull a shocker. I think Indy is just too inexperienced.

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ej3000

January 18th, 2015 at 8:02 AM ^

Green bay has gotten much better since week 1 and Seattle is beatable. Gb 30-22 Indy may find it tough to score with a poor run game and Hilton on revise island. New England 27-17

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Wolverine In Iowa

January 18th, 2015 at 8:03 AM ^

Seattle / over

Seattle is super-dangerous at home, and I think their defense will own the Pack.  I look for Lynch to rush for 100+ with two TD's.  Wilson is unspectacular, but mistake-free.  Seahawks defense/ST score a TD.

New England / under

NE beat the snot out of Indy at Indy earlier in the season, for what it's worth.  I think the Pats win by two scores in a dull affair.

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LSAClassOf2000

January 18th, 2015 at 8:15 AM ^

I have this very strange feeling that we're staring a transcontinental Super Bowl in the face this year actually:

Seattle / Green Bay - I'll take Seattle here by a TD or so. Not sure how Green Bay does this - it doesn't seem like a good matchup for them. 

Indianapolis / New England - The whole Luck / Brady dynamic here should make it interesting, but the Patriots edge this out in the end. 

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Moleskyn

January 18th, 2015 at 8:18 AM ^

Why do line-setters use half points (ie, Seattle being favored by 7.5)? How is that any different than setting it at Seattle by 8? If the rule is that the favored team must win by a margin greater than our equal to the line, I don't see the difference since there aren't half points in the NFL.

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xtramelanin

January 18th, 2015 at 8:29 AM ^

amount bet on either side of any given proposition.  understanding that the 'house' gets 10% to hold the bet, i.e., they get $10 of your $100 bet, and pay you back with the net $90 that somebody else bet on the other side.  they could care less what the actual 'predicted' score might be, they just want their 10% vigorish (sp?) where they hand an equal amout of $ bet on one side to the winners of the other side of that bet, and keep thei 10% vig. 

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xtramelanin

January 18th, 2015 at 9:19 AM ^

the house wants and has  no interest in the outcome, they only want your 10%.  you are absoluely correct other gambling games like craps, 21, etc. 

jdon, you going to share your day from yesterday?  your morning post was a dandy...

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jdon

January 18th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^

Yesterday was a lie lol...  sometimes instead of telling the truth I like to look back on my past and relive a wonderful day in my life. I haven't touched cocaine in a long time...

As to sportsbooks I know what you saying is what is said to be true, but I don't believe it.  When you look at where the money is at each week there are hardly any games that are ever 50-50: it seems to me that if they really wanted even betting then the actual money being bet each week would reflect this theory.

Instead I see most games wavering from 60-80% of the money on one side or another...

Which gets to my conspiracy theory that casinos use NFL network, ESPN etc. to create an echo chamber 'selling' a narrative on what should happen.  Then gamblers follow that narrative not unlike the rats to the pied piper (you like my metaphor? lol).

 

One example would be last years superbowl where they pushed a steady diet of Denver on the public... 

Just watch Green Bay cover today (most likely they will win outright).  We are hearing so much about Rodgers and his inability to move and the line (8) is ridiculous, and yet the vegas money is on SEATTLE right now...

 

while I'm at it just let me say that if you want to win, look at where the money is and bet against it.

jdon

ps. just for shits and giggle we can all have an mgoblog scumbag meetup before a game next year and chop out some lines... that would be fun.

jdon

 

 

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ej3000

January 18th, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^

....its really 5% since they don't keep the vig on the winning wagers. So they are aiming for equal $$ amounts to be wagered on each side and then they collect their 10% from the losing wagers or 5% (in a perfect senario) of the total amount wagered. 

Joined: 09/03/2009

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ej3000

January 18th, 2015 at 9:01 AM ^

the half-point or "hook" eliminates the chance that the wager will end up in a push (i.e. tie). It also allows you to move the line in smaller increments, which is important when moving off key numbers like 3, 7, 10.  Having the line at 7.5 instead of 7  will attract a whole group of value-bettors who realize they know basically just have to keep it within one score to win the wager (the inverse would be true by moving from 7 to 6.5). Seems to be some slight-value for GB since they can essentially be down 14pts and then get a garbage td against  a prevent defense and still cover.

GB improved a lot on Defense since week 1 and they didn't have Lacy for most of that game. Baluga (RT) also left the game and his replacement (Derrick Sherrod) was atrocious and directly lead to turnovers and ruined more than one scoring opportunity.

GB wins this outright.

Joined: 09/03/2009

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Moleskyn

January 18th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^

If you bet on the favorite to win by at least 7.5 points, then you really need them to win by 8 points. At that point, you're betting on the same margin of victory if the line is set at 8, since it's a “greater than or equal to” proposition. I'm sure the nuance is significant (otherwise nobody would set half-point lines), but it's lost on me so don't waste too much time explaining it.

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michgoblue

January 18th, 2015 at 9:08 AM ^

Pats win a close one (don't cover), with a gold amount the offense from both squads (take the over).

Seattle wins a not so close one scoring a ton of points along the way. Seattle and over.

Drinking: Fairway Hawaiian Blend coffee made on the new French press my wife bought me last month.

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PrimeChronic

January 18th, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^

I just don't see seattle rolling the packers like most do. GB has been ON even with a hobbled rogers, I see GB winning outright 37-31.

Looks like it might be a rain game for the AFC I like Brady to cover this but under 27-17

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Perkis-Size Me

January 18th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^

If Rodgers was 100%, I'd debate picking the upset here, but I just don't see it happening today. Seattle, at home, with a repeat trip to the Super Bowl on the line, that's hard to pick against. I'd say Seahawks by at least 2 TDs. 31-14 methinks.

I think we're starting to see Luck round into form, but he's been clobbered by Brady and the Pats every time he's played them. I think this game is closer, but this is very familiar territory for the Pats. And they're at home. 28-21.

As for a Pats-Seahawks Super Bowl, I want Brady to win his 4th ring, but Seattle showed last year what they can do to a high flying offense. I'd bet on Seattle by a TD in that game.



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GoBlueInNYC

January 18th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^

I predict neither game will be terribly close, as Rodgers is banged up enough that the Seahawks will have a comfortable win. And I think the Colts, as surprisingly impressive as they were against the Broncos last week, will simply be out matched by a better New England team. Both games will consequently be very boring and not worth watching*.

*This last prediction has nothing to do with the fact that I'll be out of the house all afternoon and most likely miss both games.

Joined: 03/23/2010

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WMUKirk

January 18th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^

The New England & Colts line will lower and close at maybe 6, I'll do a game time bet on that. With New England C being out I want to maximize my bet.

In Seattle, I'm taking 3.5 1H and nothing else, I don't think 7 is a safe bet for the game.



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EGD

January 18th, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^

NFC: I don't normally watch much pro football, but I started watching NFC games pretty closely this season once it became apparent that Hoke was not going to last. The Seahawks are a complete team that has really played well over the second half of the season; Green Bay is the Aaron Rodgers show. Particularly with Rodgers hurt, I don't see GB hanging around in this one. Seattle 38, GB 20

AFC: since the AFC games didn't usually affect the 49ers' playoff chances, I didn't watch too many AFC games. In fact, I don't think I watched the Pats or Colts at all this season. So, I'll just go with the line pick: NE 31, Indy 24

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Durham Blue

January 18th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^

Both games will be closer than the spread with both underdogs having a shot at a win in the last minute.  I think both games will go over, though I am almost tempted to take the under in the Seahawks-Packers game.  The Patriots-Colts should easily go over based on past history.  The dogs rule the day against the spread, though they may not win.

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pinkfloyd2000

January 18th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^

The weather today in both cities:

Seattle: Showers. High near 51. Breezy, with a southwest wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

 

Foxborough:

  • This Afternoon Rain. High near 51. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
  • Tonight Rain, mainly before 2am. Patchy fog before 4am. Low around 35. Southeast wind 7 to 14 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible

 

Some pretty good winds there in Seattle...might make things interesting there. And as for New England, well, the heavy rain could definitely hamper the passing game...which (I think) would favor the Colts.

But seriously...51 degrees in New England on January 18? Cumong man.

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mgoblue14050

January 18th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

Seattle-NE Super Bowl. Rodgers is 0-5 in last 5 road games against top 5 defenses, Seattle has number one scoring defense. Tough to see Aaron winning in Seattle. NE and Indy is interesting, this is Tom's last chance to win a super bowl imo. He will do as he always does and find a way to win.

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