Perspective on Michigan's NCAA Tournament Run
Discounting (a) the obvious complaints about the officiating in the NCAA championship game (even though that likely had a significant impact on the outcome), and (b) the fact that Michigan was the youngest team in the NCAA tournament field, IF Michigan had beaten Louisville, the head coaches of the last five teams that Michigan would have beaten in the NCAA Tournament were:
VCU’s Shaka Smart; overall record of 111-36 (.753); in the NCAA tournament in three of his four seasons as a head coach and won the post-season CBI tournament in his first season as a head coach; made the Final Four in 2011, his second season as a head coach; considered one of the nation’s top young college coaches.
Kansas’s Bill Self; overall record of 507-164 (.756); 2008 NCAA champ; in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; twice in the Final Four and seven times in the Elite Eight.
Florida’s Billy Donovan; overall record of 450-186 (.707); 2006 and 2007 NCAA champ; except for 2008 and 2009, in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; in the Final Four three times and six times in the Elite Eight.
Syracuse’s Hall of Fame coach Jim Boeheim; overall record of 920-314 (.746); 2003 NCAA champ; except for 2002, 2007 and 2008, in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; four times in the Final Four, runner-up twice and in the Elite Eight six times; two-time assistant coach of USA Olympics gold-medal team.
Louisville’s Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino; overall record of 664-230 (.735); 1996 champ with Kentucky and 2013 NCAA champ with Louisville; except for 2002 and 2006, in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; in the Final Four seven times; in the Elite Eight eleven times.
By comparison, the coaches of the last five teams Louisville beat on its way to the championship were:
Colorado State’s Larry Eustachy; overall record of 428-267 (.615); in 22 seasons as college head coach, in the NCAA tournament five times and only twice past his opening game.
Oregon’s Dana Altman; overall record of 483-279 (.634); in 24 seasons as college head coach, in the NCAA tournament nine times and only three times past his opening game; post-season CBI champ in 2011.
Duke’s Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski; winningest men’s Division One head coach in NCAA history; overall record of 957-297 (.763); NCAA champ in 1991, 1992 and 2010 with Duke; in the NCAA tournament every year since 1999; in the Final Four ten times; in the Elite Eight 13 times; two-time head coach of USA Olympics gold-medal team.
Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall; overall record of 333-153 (.685); in 24 seasons as college head coach, in the NCAA tournament nine times and only three times past his opening game; post-season CBI champ in 2011.
Michigan’s John Beilein; overall record of 598-360 (.624); in 21 seasons as Division One head coach, in the NCAA tournament eight times, six since 1999, and only once in the Final Four and twice in the Elite Eight.
The outcome was disappointing, but the run to the championship game was magical. Well done, Coach Beilein and the Men of the 2012-13 Michigan Basketball Team.
Whenever I get depressed thinknig of the game last night I just go through the checklist starting in round 2. VCU game. Kansas game. Florida game. Syracuse game.
What a great run by the team. A ton of great moments.
99%
That's how you can describe our run. If it was to be that we were not to win the NC, then we did everything else possible on a glorious run.
Other than the Holy Grail of an NC, you can not get any closer to perfection than we did.
Self and Donovan are probably headed for the Hall of Fame as well. To me, this gauntlet of coaches Beilein was up against was reminiscent of Carl Hubbell famously striking out five-straight future Hall of Famers in an All-Star Game. Beilein came up just a strike short.
This has probably already been pointed out elsewhere, but Michigan's tournament run was also remarkable for the seeds they had to face, especially in comparison to Louisville's.
Michigan: 13 – 5 – 1 – 3 – 4 – 1
Louisville: 16 – 8 –12 – 2 – 9 – 4
That's a big ass difference. Never thought of it that way.
That's why you want to be a 1 seed and not a 4 seed. That's why the regular season still matters.
It was all house money after Michigan pulled off the 0.6% chance they had of defeating Kansas and moving on. To get to the NC game was really special, and while it hurts to lose, this team righted the ship, set it on fire, and didn;t look back. Michigan has a real basketball program again, and losing to the #1 overall seed is nothing to hang your head about. Go Blue!
And we didn't just get to the NC game. We went toe-to-toe with the top 1-seed until the very end. We belonged in that NC game.
Perspective is good.
Perspective also makes me nervous because it is 20 years since we've been to the championship game and 24 and counting since we won. All of the comments about the program rising and how fun this run is and how impressive the VCU-Kansas-Florida-Syracuse string of wins was are true. It was great. But at the same time these opportunities are pretty rare and it's hard not to feel like a national championship slipped away. We were very very close a national championship. We were at 75% win probabilitiy with that 12 point lead. For me at least, the wallowing in self-pity stage will need to last a bit longer before I can move into the magnanimous appreciation state.
This is why, as a fan of any basketball program besides maybe Indiana, Duke, and Kentucky, you've got to basically forget about winning a national championship and instead think about it as a massive gift if you get one. Look for steady performance, with hopefully regular appearance in the Sweet Sixteen and an occasional Final Four.
it will be another 20 before we get back to the NC game. Remember Michigan was an elite program that made it to the NC game once a decade prior to the scandal.
Now that the program is back, facilities have been upgraded, and we have a great coach those top notch recruits will flood in. Beilein has two challenges I believe 1) Is try to win with a traditional lineup (three forwards and two guards) and 2) win with talent that could be gone in one to two years. The first challenge should be easy because Beilein is a great coach. The second challenge won't be because you have to constantly re-work team strategy in a quicker manner.
I don't believe it will be another 20 before we get back to the NC game.
The odds say this team is never there again under Beilein. And not because he's not a good coach. But guys like Boeheim are really good coaches too, and he's been there what, twice in forty years?
We're now 1-5 in championship games. There's no reason to believe we're destined to win it. Getting there makes you a really good team. Winning it makes you legendary. And when you have the more talented team, it should hurt to not close it out when you have complete control of the game, and let it completely slip.
We're going to be good for a long time. But we had a chance to be great, and move up into the rare air of teams with multiple championships. And for a variety of reasons, we fell short. That should hurt. Because if you think these chances pop up on a semi-regular basis, you are kidding yourself.
From a qualitative standpoint, this is definitely a good way to think about how good this run actually was on several levels.
I was going through the Sagarin numbers for the teams we played as well, just out of curiosity last night, and the difference is intriguing. Among the teams mentioned in the OP anyway (so SDSU aside for a second), we played only one team that had a rating below 90.00 (VCU), and so you have perspective on this, there are only 9 teams in his rankings which have a rating better than 90.00. Actually, the average rating of the teams we played from VCU onwards would be 91.56, and if that number represented a team, it would be 6th in his rankings. Louisville, from the Colorado State game to last night, played one team with a rating above 90.00 that was not Michigan - Duke. The average rating of their run from CSU to today would be 88.83, which would be 11th on the list if it represented a team.
With an entire season of data, that would indicate some stark differences in the paths of both teams on a broad quantitative level as well. We had the harder road and 100% belonged in the NC game through our play, in my estimation. Indeed, this was a wonderful run against some great competition.
That's why you want to be a 1 seed. That's what seeding is designed to do.
Extremely fun to watch. I really enjoyed Spike's emergence on the big stage. This has to give us fans confidence next season that our team will be in good hands even if we don't make it back to the NC game. I believe Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III will be back. Will be interesting to how Caris has evolved in the offseason. Excited about next year.
I was extremely dissappoint in Tim Hardaway's tournament. I know he was in double figures for most of the games but he took a ton of shots. His shooting percentage was awfully low and he missed big shots at the time when Michigan needed to him to hit them. He was constantly torched by who he was guarding too. I really do not believe he is NBA material right now and would love him to correct these issues with one more season. I believe he can.
It was also a pleasure to hang out with and celebrate with you all. This website gives us a wonderful opportunity to interact and makes the experience that much better.
GO BLUE!
No shame in this run. The program is on solid ground. Who knows? We may get a few surprises and have some kids that want to still be kids at UM return next year for another go at this. Even with a departure, I expect even more improvement next year and another banner year.
were so poor, so tilted against Michigan, with glaringly obvious examples galore (listen to the Dan Patrick link for emphasis), that the outcome WOULD have been different if they called the game fairly. The Wolverines played with vigor and continued to do so, even after being screwed time and time again by the officials. Burke and the rest of the team took a physical beating thanks to the officials. And why is Pitino allowed to stand six feet on the court; even after he was warned, he walked right back on the court after play resumed. Great season yes. I feel terrible for the players who gave so much to the team, fans and University all year, with such slanted, piss poor officiating that I believe could very well have cost them the game.