Part 3; Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities
Down to 8 possibilities. With Texas' win they are either in or this year's biggest snub. Only 1 scenario left in which the committee needs consider excluding the SEC entirely (scenario #3: Alabama win, Michigan win, FSU win). There are few enough outcomes remaining that I've added a bit of explanation for each one.
Michigan Outcomes:
4/8 scenarios: Mich vs Wash in Rose Bowl
2/8 scnearios: DNQ
1/8 scenarios: Mich vs FSU in Rose Bowl
1/8 scenarios: Mich vs Alabama in Rose Bowl
For a Michigan win:
1. G win, FSU win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
Texas wants in, but undefeated p5 champions do not get snubbed.
2. G win, FSU loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Texas
Obvious.
3. G loss, FSU win,: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
Alabama in over Texas despite head to head loss because of win over Georgia. Texas royally pissed. Any scenario with FSU in the playoff will see them seeded 4th.
4. G loss, FSU loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Texas 4) Alabama
While I believe the committee would give Alabama a spot in the playoff over Texas, if both qualify, Texas will be ahead of Alabama to appease the head to head win argument (I'm fully immersed in the twisted logic of playoff committee here).
Michigan is by far the biggest favorite in their game, but here are these useless outcomes for a Michigan loss anyways:
5. G win, FSU win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Texas 4) FSU
The 4 viable conference champs.
6. G win, FSU loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
Not sure about the Mich/Tex order in this case. Conference champ Tex has a case, but it's close enough that I think they opt for the alluring Mich/Wash Rose Bowl matchup.
7. G loss, FSU win: 1) Wash 2) Texas 3) Alabama 4) FSU
Conference champs.
8. G loss, FSU loss: 1) Wash 2) Texas 3) Alabama 4) Mich
Michigan in over 1-loss FSU (people don't want them in even as an undefeated team), 1-loss Georgia (2nd SEC team vs 1st B10 team), 1-loss OSU (head to head).
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
Scenarios 1-4 addendum: Buckeyes OUT
Scenarios 5-8 addendum: Not going to happen. And Buckeyes OUT anyways.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
I know the committee very well could put Bama in over Texas. I still stand by the notion that they should not and will not do that.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
They “could” put Tulane in, but they won’t. OSU is now out
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
Will be REALLY fun to see what happens if Bama can beat the Dawgs. Leaving out Georgia would be brutal...
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
Rooting for a Georgia loss...
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
You should not. In this scenario if FSU loses then Texas is 3 and Bama 4. If FSU wins then its a big maybe if they are 3 or 4 50/50 if we draw Bama.
Bama wins and they are in over Texas or anyone else. It would delegitimize the playoff without the SEC champ. It won't happen. No point of even considering it.
UGA wins UM draws UW. UGA loses and its likely UM draws Bama.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
Would be hard to leave Texas out of Bama wins.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
FSU would get left out over the SEC Champ. It would be stupid to leave out the champion of the conference that wins it every single year. It won't happen.
I want the SEC in this. I just don't want to play them in the opening round. I damn sure want our shot at them in the finals.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
If you compare their resumes Texas is in over Bama. Bama in particular won their last game over a bad Auburn team on a coin flip. And finally they would have to choose between two one loss conference champions and Texas beat Bama on the road by 10 points. The only arguments for Bama over Texas are “well SEC” and “Saban”.
If the committee arbitrarily ignores the facts and picks Bama over Texas in this scenario, non SEC fans will be as angry as M fans were over the arbitrary unilateral Harbaugh ban.
It could still happen. That’s why they went to a subjective playoff committee vs the BCS decisions based on multiple polls.
December 2nd, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
“Delegitimize the playoff without the SEC champ”. Uhhhh ok. Maybe in the minds of SEC fans, but I promise you that the remaining 80% of fans don’t give a damn and will say congratulations to whomever wins the title.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
And NOT an Alabama win, of course
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
If Bama wins and gets in over Texas it will be the biggest sham since...Bama got in the BCS title game instead of Oklahoma State in 2011
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
Scenario 3 is the most interesting. With M and Washington in, take 2 of 3 of the following conference champions: FSU (13-0), Texas (12-1 with head to head over Alabama) or Alabama (12-1).
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
Obligatory beat Iowa.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Take care of business
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
With Texas winning, Michigan has to win tonight to get in. If Oregon, Texas, and Alabama had all lost, Michigan was in regardless.
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^
If FSU loses, which 4 are in over Michigan in case of loss?
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:45 PM ^
Georgia. I think you messed up scenario #8.
If Georgia loses to Bama and FSU loses to Louisville it will probably be:
1) Washington (undefeated Pac12 champ)
2) Texas (1 loss Big12 champ with a win over Bama)
3) Bama (1 loss SEC champ who lost to team above them)
4) Georgia (currently ahead of UM in CFP poll and lost to a better team in Bama vs. Iowa)
December 2nd, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
3 1-loss non conference champs: Georgia, Michigan, FSU. I think conference representation wins out, thats why I have Michigan over Georgia.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
I don't care if it's the '85 Bears, the Brady Patriots, and the '27 Yankees. Beat Iowa, then beat whoever lines up on the other side of the ball.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^
Herb Brooks to team USA after the Miracle on Ice, before playing Finland:
_________________________________
I will not direct quote. But I imagine most football coaches* would have no trouble conveying the message to the players this evening.
Win the game.
*And I don't have to imagine about Sherrone Moore after he beat Penn State
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
8 teams came in with a chance entering the weekend. 2 are out: Oregon and Ohio State. And only Washington has clinched a spot.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
If the committee puts Alabama in and Texas out then head to head officially doesn't matter. I'm so glad we're expanding the playoff next season so this stupid shit will never come up again
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
Bama would have beaten 2 time defending run away NC champion Georgia and snapped their 2 and 1/2 season win streak. I think its 30 something games or more in a row. The last was coincidentally in the 2021 sec championship. That would be the biggest win of the year for any team by a wide margin. It speaks for itself why they'd be in. Do we really want to win the asterisks cfb because thats what it would be without the sec.
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:03 PM ^
Head to head should trump any other win. Using that logic if Texas played Georgia they'd beat Georgia too.
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^
No. Last year and the year before are NOT supposed to mean jack shit. I DGAF how long their win streak is. You've certainly been sipping on the SEC Kool-Aid. Why even play the games really? Just give them their spot.
December 2nd, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^
3 ..... 2 .......1 ..... Buckeye tears (haha)
GO BLUE!
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
Inasmuch as OSU cannot make it in any of these scenarios, I hope that you have appraised the situation accurately. Sweet that Ewers went nuts today and that may be what guarantees Texas is in before OSU. Like Burrow, another one that got away from the Bucks.
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:16 PM ^
I don't think they'd consider putting Alabama ahead of Texas - not with a head-to-head ten-point loss at home back in September.
I also worry that if the unthinkable happens tonight, Michigan needs both FSU and Alabama losses to get in. The committee doesn't care about conference representation - if Georgia's ahead of Michigan now, the unthinkable loss isn't going to change that.
Buckeyes are out. Unfortunately, the same results put more pressure on Michigan.
On a more minor note, I think FSU holds on to its seed with a win, so there's no way for Michigan to face the 'Noles in a semifinal.
December 2nd, 2023 at 4:49 PM ^
I already smoked so I can't follow your post. But I appreciate your effort
December 2nd, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
At this point, if Bama can bury Georgia that helps. Bama getting that replay help.
December 2nd, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^
I don’t want to see Bama in the semis