OTish: CFP expansion should end championship weekend
CFP expansion should mean we get rid of conference championship weekend, and either replace it with the first round or replace it with a play-in weekend.
This may be the best championship weekend we've had, with UGA/Bama and Oregon/Washington as play-in games...and yet it still is inefficient. M, Texas and FSU are playing teams that aren't gettting in. Oregon/Washington is a re-match, not new data. This year, there's nothing to be done. But next year, why not replace it?
After 12 games, we have the data we need for the top 4 - UGA, M, UW, and FSU. Bama IS an SEC co-champ, but should not be ahead of UT, who should not be ahead of the undefeateds. so UT and Bama should get autobids as conference champs, and Oregon and OSU should round out the top 8.
Tulane's only loss is to top 15 Ole Miss, but they should absolutely have to play-in for the last spot - but instead of SMU, how about against Liberty? They and SMU can be co-champs, but SMU isn't deserving of a CFP spot. that's your G5 play-in. And then instead of championship weekend, why not matchup Oregon, UT and Bama with Ohio St, PSU and Mizzou? There's your 12-team playoff right there!
Or, if we must have an additional week of games BEFORE the 12 team playoff - then in addition to Tulane-Liberty, we should have PSU, Mizzou and Ole Miss play-in against OU, LSU and L'Ville. Those last 3 don't really seem deserving at all, but I also know the TV people wanted more games, not to remove conference championships. And in a 12-team era, championship weekend is flawed. Not only does it give less data than we need, it also don't really reward the teams in the future bracket since playing for a bye sorta defeats the purpose of a bye, doesn't it? Give the champs the week off to heal and prepare, and let the bottom of the bracket play their way in.
This may all be an elaborate way to keep the stakes of The Game very high in the 12-team era. Anyhow, here's what I'm envisioning, if you want to have a play-in round:
Byes to QFs on NYD: UGA, M, Washington, FSU
in the first round: Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, Bama
playing-in on championship weekend: Tulane-Liberty, Mizzou-L'Ville, PSU-LSU, Ole Miss-OU
re-seed after the play-in to avoid rematches and try to avoid rematches in the QFs, altho that may be hard for the SEC. Or, again, we could just have the first round on championship weekend instead. That would be my preferred method.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
But next year, why not replace it?
$$$
November 29th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
$$$ will keep it in play for a while but it makes so little sense that it will eventually be replaced with something else. I don’t think a lot of the bowls are going to survive the expanded playoff in their current format so maybe non-Playoff teams could play in consolation “bowls” at the sites and dates that are now used for conference championship games. Next year is the beginning of change not the end of it.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
This is well said. The powers that be are obviously driven by money but an expanded playoff works better with 8 smaller conferences playing a round robin schedule than it does with 4 enormous conferences + best two teams conference title games. The showcase format that's been discussed on this blog is also a good solution
November 29th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
I've thought this for years. If there was an 8 or 12 team playoff before the SEC expanded to 12 teams, college football would be a far different place today.
November 29th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Conference championship games should disappear, no doubt. A G5 play-in game would be fun
November 29th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
This shows four undefeated teams having to play an additional game (one against a team they already beat) - seems like the Conference Championships are useless regardless of expansion.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
yea that's fair. they're dumb in general.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
I think we should have two super conferences (B1G and blend of PAC-12/Big-12, SEC and blend of ACC/Big-12) with two divisions. Winners of their divisions play the "conference championships" which are playoff games. We then play for a national championship. Retains the importance of Rivalries, prevents rematches, and allows for a national championship based on on-field performance.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Championship Weekend should go away but won’t. Agreed, it should be replaced with play in games but how could you do that? Try that this year in conferences….
Who would Iowa play to play in? Penn St, who is already in by the rankings?
Is the sec going to have ole miss play lsu since they already played? I just don’t see it this way right now in this manner.
Down the road I could see play in games hosted by the CFP.. esp if they tried to expand it to 16 teams, and have a play in round.. 9-12 plays 13-16 to play into the cfp….Or the opening round…
November 29th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Iowa wouldn't play anybody - they're too far down and have no claim to a league championship. Next year, everyone is getting rid of divisions, so it makes more sense. In that case, a team like Iowa would not be playing anyway - play-in game or championship game. A team like L'Ville may still be relevant as a co-champ for the play-in games, but would be a top-10 team if they were. You'd have teams play other conferences, mostly, or at least limit rematches in the first few rounds.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
I completely agree. When teams can back into the playoffs not playing in a championship game, there really isn't any point.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
THIS!
November 29th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
The fact that conference title games in leagues without divisions usually are rematches says it all. They're a waste of time.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Teams that lose their champ game should not be punished. The top 4 are undefeated through the regular season. Unless they lose the conf champ game to another unbeaten, they should not drop out.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
The biggest problem is this:
2 teams play a conference title game and winner gets a bye... meanwhile the non-title game participants are getting a 'bye' while 2 teams are playing the CCG. So in reality, it's not a bye, it's just a matter of when you play. Even worse, the LOSER of the conference title game gets screwed the most as they play the 13th game and still don't get a playoff bye! The CCG loser has to play 17 games while the CCG winner and non CCG participants only have to play 16.
So you're better off being Ole Miss or PSU sitting in the 7-11 seeds as non-CCG participants than you are being the CCG loser.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
Agreed. I absolutely HATE the idea of Michigan and OSU potentially playing back to back games in the B1G Championship.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Your concept for replacement isn't bad, but with conference autobids the conference champ games, which weren't going away anyway for revenue reasons, actually have real stakes: Iowa would be playing for a playoff berth.
The destruction of divisions naturally means that you're more likely to have two playoff teams playing in the champ game, but I think the effect of this will wind up being what you suggest anyway: Winner gets a bye, loser gets the ladder.
Now, I would accept quite a bit to avoid a dumb UM-OSU rematch (the chances of Michigan and Ohio State, sometime in the next five seasons, playing each other in November *already knowing* that they will play again the next week are high) but it's not going away.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
but why not? for competitive reasons, it makes sense to reward a team with a bye. For financial and dramatic reasons, it makes more sense for the additional game to be for a bid than for a seed/bye. Yes, Iowa would be playing for a bid - but next year, Iowa wouldn't be playing, it'd be M-OSU 2, and both would already be in. (Granted, it may be M-Washington - but the fact remains, it's likely to be a rematch of two teams who are already in the playoff, playing for an additional week off).
Conference championship games are already inefficient, but next year they're straight up superfluous and unfair. Embrace the co-champs, and move forward to the play-off.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
Conference expansion / supersizing - has diluted the value of conference play - IMO. And, that is unfortunate.
How does a conference determine a conference championship without a CCG? Is it a media poll? How about the AD's vote? Or, perhaps the conference Commissioner can just decide it via fiat.
I'm no fan of expansion - and, IMO - with an increased playoff of 12 teams - what we'll wind up with in '24 and beyond is - the majority of teams that play in a CCG will essentially just be playing for seeding in the CFP. Little more than that.
I'm a fan of the tradition of college football - and, the proposed playoff structure is destroying much of the fabric which made the game I grew up with so very enjoyable.
My view has always been - eight teams - use the four "major" traditional bowls for the first round - and, go from there to the semi-finals and final. My view will never happen, I know that.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
You determine the champions (plural) based on W-L record. You can have co-champs - it's not the end of the world. If you're a fan of tradition, you'll remember this as the way CFB used to be before the championship game was brought on us. The committee can decide which of the co-champs is most worth of getting a bye, which should get in as a co-champ, which should have to play-in if necessary, and which isn't really worth but still gets to hang a banner. They should use head-to-head and strength-of-schedule and overall record.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
It's already cooked into the decade-long TV deals already signed by each major conference.
SO, it's not going anywhere.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Are you implying that money would influence this decision? Surely, you jest.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
In Mega Conferences of the future, the likelihood of the two top teams missing each other in the regular season is pretty high. I don't like rematches either, but controversy about who won the conference is worse.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
yea that is fair, i'm not sure how often rematches would happen in the mega conferences and how even the championship teams would be. in this era, they're stupid - you could argue Bama is screwed by no CCG, but in a 12 team playoff everyone else would be off. Iowa is gettting a gift this year, losing that wouldn't be screwing them. L'ville likely still gets to play and has stakes.
i don't know exactly how the mega conference will change things tho - if it still works similarly, rematches and the championship games themselves will be very dumb. If it leads to controversy about where you should be on the ladder, then yes you'd have to pick your poison.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
Never happen for $$$$$ome reason?
November 29th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
I think it should be similar to the NFL. Have Championship Weekend be auto seeding purposes, then wildcard after.
On a side note: What's the point of smaller conferences, like MAC and AAC, be Division 1 if the chances are slim that they get into the playoffs? Maybe, just maybe, the expanded playoffs would benefit those conferences, but probably not because $$$
November 29th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
I agree.
The thought of playing any team 3 times should be frowned upon by all fanbases. Just makes those games almost meaningless