OT: Weekend Betting - Week 4
Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for the weekend's slate of games. I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):
(Last week record: 3-6; Overall season record: 10-19)
Saturday games:
Tulsa at Northern Illinois,, 12pm: Tulsa +4
Oklahoma at Cincinatti, 12pm: Cincinatti +14.5
Colorado at Oregon, 3:30pm: Oregon -13.5 (1st half)
Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville St, 5pm: Jacksonville St -6.5
Liberty at Florida International, 6:30pm: Florida International +10
Oregon St at Washington St, 7pm: Washington St +3
Ohio St at Notre Dame, 7:30pm: Notre Dame +3
Texas at Baylor, 7:30pm: Texas team total over 33.5
North Carolina at Pitt, 8pm: North Carolina -7.5
Notable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a 24 point favorite over Rutgers. Over/Under is 44
Maryland currently sits as a 7.5 point favorite over Michigan St (at Michigan St)
Penn St currently sits as a 14.5 point favorite over Iowa (at Penn St)
Ohio St currently sits as a 3 point favorite over Notre Dame (at Ohio St)
Oregon currently sits as an 21 point favorite over Colorado (at Oregon)
Florida St currently sits as an 2.5 point favorite over Clemson (at Clemson)
Alabama currently sits as an 6.5 point favorite over Ole Miss (at Alabama).
Other lines:
September 21st, 2023 at 9:54 PM ^
September Maryland should win by 20+ right? What am I missing?
September 21st, 2023 at 10:00 PM ^
I know. That looks like easy money right there.
September 21st, 2023 at 9:56 PM ^
OSU vs. ND is in South Bend. Surprised OSU is only 3 point favorite.
September 21st, 2023 at 10:03 PM ^
Crazy to think Notre Dame hasn't beaten Ohio St since 1936.... granted it's a small sample size since then (7 games overall)
September 21st, 2023 at 10:29 PM ^
I'm actually surprised OSU is favored.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:36 AM ^
I’ll take ND straight up. It’s in SB, experienced QB, better defense, …
September 22nd, 2023 at 6:29 AM ^
ND was garbage last year and OSU was a successful field goal away from playing for the NC. OSU recruits better than anyone not named Alabama or Georgia. Easy choice for me.
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
True, but you could also say that same 'garbage' ND team lost by only 11 on the road to that same OSU team that is no longer quarterbacked by CJ Stroud. Doesn't seem crazy to think ND could take it at home this year.
I mean .... *gestures at Michigan's 2020 season, then beating OSU 42-27 in 2021
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Anything could happen. That never changes.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
ND was a very different team last year with a first year coach. ND tended to play down to the level of the competition and lost games they shouldn’t have.
The OSU game was essentially tied last year at halftime and then OSU scored two unanswered touchdowns in the second half. ND’s offense only scored 10 points last year in that game and their offense was pathetic.
So they gifted their OC and starting QB to Alabama (and now Alabama is pathetic) and found an experienced 5 year starter who had already thrown for 13K yards and 110 TDs in college. They also upgraded a couple of other staff positions.
ND’s coach is loved by their players and they will come to play for him. OSU players are there for the pay and to play school.
Your only point was “but OSU has better recruits”
ND by 10.
September 22nd, 2023 at 7:06 PM ^
I guess we will see, won’t we then? I would wager 1 pound of sandwich pepperoni
September 22nd, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^
Oh god how I love pepperoni but my stomach can’t handle that anymore.
I’ll wager that if you lose you give up red meet for a week and eat some tofu. I lose and I have to eat a steak which might set my off my stomach and my kids while delaying the transition to carbon neutral ever so slightly.
I’ll also admit, rooting for ND over OSU is an easy decision since one of those is more hated than the other.
September 23rd, 2023 at 1:03 AM ^
You’re on. No communist conferences for me if I lose, big juicy steak and a glass of milk for you if you lose. OSU + 10.
September 23rd, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
If you are claiming you have Ohio U +10 points out of this discussion then you are a fool and can go keep playing by youself in a dark empty room and stop wasting peoples time.
September 21st, 2023 at 9:59 PM ^
Lot better slate of games this week than last week that's for sure. Hoping you'll are doing better than me so far :/. Fading sparty is often tempting. Here's a stat for you: Nick
Saban is 21-7-1 against the spread in conference games when coming off
back-to-back against the spread losses, But Kiffin sure has this came underlined all year. Not sure on the injury status of some of Ole Miss's WRs though, seems like they've been banged up.
September 21st, 2023 at 10:07 PM ^
Curious what you're seeing in the OU-Cinci game? Oklahoma has been rolling teams so far this year and Cincinnati just lost to Miami (NTM).
Good luck with your bets. Hope you cash in this week.
September 21st, 2023 at 10:36 PM ^
Generally like tha yardage gained by the Bearcats the first few games. Last week's loss to Miami Ohio seemed pretty misleading to me so buying low on them as big dogs at home. Cincinatti's defense I also think is quite talented, and will give Oklahoma some fits. I think Oklahoma also hasn't been good ATS under Venables so far the following week after coming off a game this won and cover like last week. But with my betting record so far this season, I may easily be way off on this one. Dillon Gabriel may just be really good and light up a hyped up Cinci defense. Something about those Big Noon Fox games with Oklahoma always pictures me seeing them with a shit ton of points on the scoreboard contsantly.
September 21st, 2023 at 10:09 PM ^
Damn, dude, 10-19 on the season? I'd feel bad for you if my record wasn't worse. Let's turn this negative into a positive!
I lost on Michigan minus the points in weeks 1 and 2. I faded Michigan last week and won. Rutgers is a pain in the ass and 24 points seems like too many. But that line is begging people to take Rutgers which is why I am going with Michigan -24.
Give me Maryland -7.5.
I may buy down the 1/2 point hook on PSU and get them -14.
I think Colorado crashes and burns in a big way this week. Going to take Oregon -21.
Clemson +2.5 is tempting.
And gimme Ole Piss +6.5.
September 21st, 2023 at 10:34 PM ^
I think OP is smart to take the 1st half line on the Oregon-Colorado game. I could see Colorado keeping their starters in after Oregon pulls theirs just to make the final score look closer than it actually is.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
Don't read too much into the Mich/RU spread and do a reverse psychology thing. Vegas has Michigan all wrong this year. RU is 91st in pace of play, M is 127th. We also seem to be very risk averse. If we get up 17+, we'll pull the plug. It will take our D/ST scoring to get to the O/U and spread. I think we win this one like the UNLV game, but with a few TDs turned into FGs because their D is better. Mich 27-10.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
We have not been risk-averse in the non-con, but we will be in this game. I think it's going to be a slog. We'll win, but we will enjoy watching the defense more than the offense on Saturday.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
As said below DB that Michigan under is where its at. Michigan is struggling to get into the 30s vs body bags and Rutgers is a very solid defense. I can even see a 17-3 game here. The chances of it being over 34 for UM or over 10 for Rutgers seem very slim.
September 22nd, 2023 at 7:35 PM ^
Yeah, I would agree. The O/U is currently 44 at Bovada. That line is screaming TAKE THE OVER when you know damn well it's going under.
28-3 Michigan
Michigan covers and it's the under by a mile.
September 24th, 2023 at 2:33 AM ^
Check my Iowa post below DB!
September 21st, 2023 at 10:57 PM ^
Lock of the week: Oregon -21
September 24th, 2023 at 2:33 AM ^
Nice!
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:55 AM ^
(Last Week 4-2, overall 12-10)
PSU v Iowa, PSU -14.5
Washington v Cal, Washington -20.5
OSU v Notre Dame, ND ML
Minnesota v Northwestern, Minnesota -11.5
Oregon State v Washington State, OSU -3
Maryland v MSU, Maryland -7.5
Duke v Uconn, Duke -21.5
FSU v Clemson, FSU -2
September 22nd, 2023 at 5:44 AM ^
i did one of those dumb $25 “free” (lol) bets on mgm last weekend, 5-game parlay using the free dough:
- maryland (-15) v virginia, yup.
- penn state (-14.5) v illinois, gotcha
- rutgers (-7) v virginia tech, 3 for 3
- ohio state (-29.5), hey lookit that, 4 for 4
last one was iowa (-28.5) v western michigan, and it was looking awfully grim…iowa was up 21 with 9 minutes left and had every reason to pack it in. but they kicked a pointless field goal with 4 minutes left to go up 24, western turned it over on downs in iowa territory with 3:15, and ol’ kirk decided to try to get a touchdown for a walk-on whose grandfather played with nile kinnick in 1939.
the point being - kirk gave me my cover on a pointless touchdown, with 30 seconds left, and got me a cool $620. i’ll never say another bad word about the guy.
this week, i’m going
- maryland (-7.5) at sparty (that’s some free money, right there)
- illinois (-15.5) vs florida atlantic (+ the over on that is 45, which looks kinda tasty)
- arkansas (+17.5) at lsu
- minnesota (-11.5) at northwestern
September 22nd, 2023 at 7:02 AM ^
I had the opposite experience several years ago on a 5-team parlay.
The first four games went my way, then the last game which was between two bad WAC or MWC teams (San Jose St. and New Mexico St. I think?), the team I had faded was trailing by something like 8 points as a 6 point dog and kicked a completely meaningless 51 yard FG as time expired to lose by only 5 and get the back door cover.
That fucking meaningless FG cost me a $500.00 payout on a $20.00 wager. I still have a small hole in my wall from the pen I hurled. I stopped gambling shortly thereafter.
September 22nd, 2023 at 5:48 AM ^
No one's going to take that PSU/Iowa under 40? I'd hammer that all the way down to 25 considering Iowa going to cover the lack of points on their own.
Oregon going to have to score 75 points to cover -21. I recommend betting 10 units on them.
Maryland -7.5 is a classic sucker's bet because we don't know which version of MSU is going to show up: trash, or tornado trash? Bet Maryland all the way down to -43.
I'd stay away from the Oregon State/Wazzu game since we have no idea how Vegas is going to score them lying down their arms and refusing to fight their brothers.
September 22nd, 2023 at 6:43 AM ^
Kind of agree on MSU but why do we think there is a good version of this team? Half the team has to have its transfer papers ready to file.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:22 AM ^
I'll bit the under on Iowa/PSU because of the weather... "Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon. High 57F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch." That has 10-9 written all over it.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Take Iowa under their total. Whatever that number is.
Penn State 31
Iowa 3 (defense + special teams might score a TD)
Cade will be in trouble.
September 22nd, 2023 at 7:17 AM ^
So the beavers and WAZZOO are playing for the pack two championship?
Like blazing saddles circle the wagon scene.
Poignant.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
It's not like that scene at all. Also...Pac 2.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:26 AM ^
7-leg Saturday
- Oregon -21 over Colorado
- Rutger +24.5 over Mich
- RU/Mich under 44.5
- UCF/KST over 54.5
- UNLV -2.5 @UTEP
- Kent St/Frezzl over 50.5
- Iowa/PSU under 40.5
Got +3652
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
Your Oregon Ducks are Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week.
(Sorry, Coach Prime, it was a fun first few weeks, but the national attention is about to shift towards the real contenders come Sunday.)
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
Seabiscuit in the 4th.
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^
Utah is a beast at home, give me them -6 all day
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
So far, I've put in small bets on Rutgers first half and game taking the points. No ML bets, because we'll win, but we won't cover.
Maryland looks like ridiculously easy money, but easy money in Vegas never is, so I am hesitant.
I am also looking at PSU and Oregon, but I hate to lay so many points....maybe first half bets there.
September 22nd, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
There is one bet that I am absolutely in love with on Saturday.
USC 1H -20.5
I'd play that all the way up to 27.5 if I could.
You're welcome.
September 22nd, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Parlay
Wisconsin -6
FSU -2.5
Maryland-7.5
Texas Tech -6
Washington-20.5
10 dollar bet pays 258
dont think those are to crazy!
September 22nd, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
Pretty sure Ohio State pulls Notre Dame’s pants down.