OT: Wednesday evening men’s hoops comments
It’s Wednesday evening - two B1G games on the agenda.
Maryland (11-7 and tied with Michigan for second in the conference) at OSU. You can get a ticket for $2.00 plus fees. But, it means you would need to be in Columbus at Value City arena. FWIW, I love that name and think it’s perfect for the Buckeyes. The game tips off at 7:00 EST.
The conference nightcap tips off at 9:00 pm EST and features Northwestern (also 11-7 in conference play) hosting Penn State.
Both B1G games will be broadcast on BTN.
Michigan takes the floor again tomorrow (Thursday) evening in Champaign against the Illini.
Go both States! Squash all turtles and wildcats!
0 for 2 Grampy!
I'll wait for the fees to fall below $2.00....better yet I MIGHT watch on TV...watching on TV will be the most expensive.... :(
$2.00 plus fees is called a "regular price ticket" in some places, thanks to the amount of the fees versus the actual amount of joy the ticket provides.
This bubble is getting smaller and smaller. I do feel like Michigan needs both the remaining regular season games to make it.
I'm unclear about whether this is the general game thread or just big ten? Seems like the Wednesday rooting guide should be the game thread but now I'm all like:
It needs to be a more informed thread. This Auburn game is a disaster for Michigan.
Disaster is a bit hyperbolic but yes, it shrinks the bubble by one. Disappointing for sure. This isn't quite over yet though.
One thing I mentioned on the other thread, I don't get how Providence is being viewed so favorably. Their resume isn't that good. They could be in big trouble if they lose this weekend to Seton Hall.
And while I think Michigan would have been better off overall if Pitt climbed into the top 50, this high margin loss tonight could put them in some trouble too. I doubt it but maybe if they also lose the next two.
Pitt's resume is weaker than Michigan's with a loss today; it's a Q3 loss late and if they don't beat Miami on the road that's a rough end to the year. Pitt at this point wasn't likely to be a Q1 win for UM and so you'd rather they fall down the bubble and open a spot for Michigan. A lot of the newer brackets had Pitt closer to a low 10/high 11 seed than the #9 seed they were aggregating in the matrix, and a loss here will be huge.
Look, I wish you were correct, but Pitt is 4-3 (57%) in q1 which is so much better than Michigan's 3-10 (23%) that their overall resume is still clearly better.
And that's reflected in Pitt being a 9 seed on 19 of the 41 brackets that were updated today with an overall average of 9.83. They'll drop but still not even that close to the cut line when there are six 11 seeds. And losing at Miami this weekend won't meaningfully hurt them.
So they'd also need to lose another bad one early in the ACC tourney to even be close to the cut line and even then they're still probably safe.
And they had a very good shot to get to top 50. They were very close to start the night, just needed to exceed expectations by a few points the rest of the way. That was far more likely than losing to a bad team early in the ACC.
But Pitt being 4-3 in Q1 games highlights how weak their schedule is overall; Michigan may be 3-10 but that means they've also played 13 Q1 opponents to Pitt's 7. And overall Pitt's only played 14 total games against Q1 and 2 teams while they've now got multiple Q3 and Q4 losses.
I've long be suspect of the Matrix because of its clustering and the somewhat-obtuse way by which they're included. For example, the sole 8th-seeded vote for Pitt today was from a guy who listed them as the auto-bid, which I presume means he thinks they're going to win the ACC tournament. There doesn't appear to be any logic to that, only a vibes feeling. To the NET/Kenpom/Torvik crowd they're a middling team that is solidly on the bubble, and so I tend to trust those over a site that probably works in the aggregate at the end but individually feels like a lot of noise.
I may well be wrong but losing to a bad ND team isn't going to help their cause and its my belief that playing so few Q1 games, even with a solid winning percentage, will hurt them. Clemson is in a similar boat (they've got a 4-3 record in Q1 games) but they aren't close to the bubble because like Pitt they've only played 12 games against Q1 and 2 teams and they've got losses to Q3 and 4 teams.
I don't think UM is going to back into a bid and they have to keep winning but if they close with a split and a first-round BTT win that's likely enough to get them into the tournament.
It doesn't matter that Michigan has played a bunch more q1 games if they've lost all of them (more than all of them in fact). You're way overvaluing SoS. Still need to win the games on your schedule and Pitt has won a far higher % of their tough games. The whole point of the quadrants is to level differences in SoS. Q1 games are all Q1. So then it's just a matter of how well you did against that quadrant.
You're arguing against the matrix which, ok, good luck. The matrix has been incredibly accurate over the years, far more than any individual because of the phenomenon of the wisdom of the crowd which is remarkably fascinating in itself, btw. You can't focus on what one person thinks about one data point. The whole idea is that the collective wisdom vastly outperforms individuals over the long run. That example you gave is nothing more than noise. There are others to the other direction that balance it out.
Maybe they get dinged more than I expect after tonight (wish they hadn't made that late comeback to make it more respectable) but we'll wait til we see the brackets.
I don't think UM is going to back into a bid and they have to keep winning but if they close with a split and a first-round BTT win that's likely enough to get them into the tournament.
I completely agree with this. But I think the teams that Michigan will pass that are currently ahead of them will be some combo of UNC, ASU, Wisconsin, Miss St., ASU, USC, and Ok State (they need to pass at least three of those).
Pitt is highly unlikely to be left out. Even after tonight. They had a much better chance of moving up to top 50.
Auburn was the second-rated 10 seed per Bracket Matrix. If they had lost to Bama and Tennessee and then got bounced from the SEC tourney early maybe they're in trouble but otherwise that seemed unlikely.
Pitt losing feels like it might be helpful; had the Panthers split these last two games (beaten ND and lost to Miami) they wouldn't have jumped into the top 50 of NET anyway so that's not a Q1 win and instead they're going to tumble down the bubble with a loss here. That helps Michigan.
Michigan has to keep winning games but the idea a single game is a "disaster" is needlessly hyperbolic.
Alabama currently looks like they do not care about this game
And that’s one bid that Michigan won’t get. Don’t be fooled, Michigan needs both of these two games to make it. The consensus is wrong, and way to favorable to our actual chances. We need to win both of these games. There is just not much room to move up with mediocrity.
'Bama's on a run! Closed the gap to 8, and may get the ball after review-
Ok here comes the Tide.
T him up!
Isn’t bamas bench all ejected now?
don't look now, but ohio is up 12 on the terps with 4:30 to go. would be their second win in a row after basically going 0-fer-2023
Ohio wins! Yaaaaay!!!... whoa, what? Wait! Damn you, Bubble.
I’m OK with OSU being 5-14 in conference play.
This is ridiculous.
Bama is kind of a crazy team. They sleepwalked through the first 30 minutes of this game but then just flipped a switch
They finally brought the big guns
Too soon?
Well this is a stinker of a night. Finally getting around to checking the scoreboards. NEAT!
I hate having to root for Bama right now. But the Bubble makes strange bedfellows.
AU 73 - Bama 72 with 2:14 left.
Maryland & Pitt lost.
Bama up by 2 now
How unaware do you have to be to chuck up a 3 pt attempt with a 2 point lead & less than 50 seconds to play with 25 seconds still on the shot clock?
This Alabama-Auburn game is sort of insane and the refs are calling an absolute shitshow now.
Is there any coaching going on in this Bama-Auburn game?
Pretty wild watching this game after a season of watching the Big Ten
Well at least Alabama is going to beat Auburn.
Bama by 5. Bama makes terrible decisions on (and off!) the court but managed to come back and win.
That’s a rough way to lose for Auburn. If we can get Northwestern to win, it’s actually a pretty decent night overall. UNLV winning would be icing on the cake for sure.
Auburn losing, Pitt losing, and NW winning feels like a pretty decent night for the bubble watchers. I'm not banking on UNLV pulling the upset but one never knows.
Yea and I’m not sure Maryland losing to OSU is going to do that much. I am really fascinated that OSU is playing better without Key.
I've always been very unimpressed by Key
Yeah, Key seemed to have gotten hurt heading into January and never quite recovered so maybe just not trying to run the offense through him helped them? It's been weird.
Michigan has played well without Jett so I wonder if he makes the trip and plays tomorrow how that'll affect the team.
Michigan hasn’t played that well without Jett. We just barely beat an at best mediocre but really not great Wisconsin team at home after letting them score extremely efficiently in the second half. If we play at that level this week we go 0-2
How the mighty have fallen: Georgetown is losing to Creighton by 40 with 13 minutes left. This Knick fan loves Ewing, but he's definitely getting fired.
NW and PSU tied at 61 with 40 seconds left. T.O.: NW ball.
Pickett should’ve shot that. 3 feet from the basket. Reminded me of the GR3 play vs. PU until he passed out. Good look for Funk.
NW - PSU end regulation tied at 61.
Fuck. PSU wins it with a last second 3 in OT
We’re all alone in 2nd place.
On the bright side, Michigan sits alone tonight at 2nd place in the Big10 Standings.
There is no bright side in context, that wasn't exactly a good thing. Need to win tomorrow or this ship will start taking water quickly.
This is meaningless. 2nd place has no value when you are playing in the nit
Fuck psu and all their delusional joepa loving fans!!!
I approve of this message!!!