OT: Washington star player tears his Achilles

What is the point of your comment? To tell him he isn't right to have optimism? To rain on his parade?

What are you talking about? You make it sound like 10-3 is some unattainable thing with Harbaugh when by and large that's how it's been. I'm not high on Harbaugh but besides last year there's really just the JOK year where Michigan was struggling like you talk about. 8-5 that year and you make it sound like that's been the norm. 

We will still be the underdog in this game.

"Top 3 teams in the BIG East"?

Michigan is usually one of those three.

My question is....(other than Michigan) who do you consider a slam dunk top team in the East, after OSU? 

Penn State?  They have been on par with Michigan since Harbaugh has been here.  Trading blowout wins.  Also, they weren't exactly awesome last year, either.  In a very similar situation as Michigan.  So....are they going to be better than Michigan?  Maybe, but it isn't a given (like some people seem to think).

Indiana?  They were terrible after Penix went out (last year), they lost their star RB, they lost their star RB coach (who went to Michigan), and lost several other players (to the draft).....including one of their top receivers.  Indiana isn't exactly in a position to "reload".  Will they be bad?  Probably not, but better than what Michigan is going to be?  I doubt it.

Who else, in the East?  Don't really see anyone.

While I can understand concern about our DL, should our OL really be a big concern?   The team ran for 176 yards against Penn State with no semblance of a passing game.   Four of the five starters on that line return in Barnhart, Fliaga, Zinter and Stueber.  We also return early season starters in Hayes and Vastardis.

It is not unrealistic to think that Hayes returning at left tackle will be an upgrade, in the interior, three guys with starting experience in Filaga, Barnhart and Zinter should provide improvement at the guard spot (it is not unrealistic to expect improvement from Barnhart and Zinter in potentially their second year of starting and Stueber should be solid.   The only place we might take a step back is at center (of all the transfers we have had, I would argue that Carpenter may be the worst).

Also:

Looks like Penn State is going to struggle a bit at QB, this year.  That doesn't exactly scream "juggernaut", to me.  ?‍♂️

https://victorybellrings.com/2021/04/20/penn-state-football-must-add-qb-from-transfer-portal-3-best-options/

Also, here's some observations from their Spring game.

https://www.centredaily.com/sports/college/penn-state-university/psu-football/article250747234.html

JG - Nobody said M won’t lose one of their 85 scholarship players to an injury. But not all 85 are the same. So losing a true “star” player means something. Agree that it doesn’t mean a positive result is assured. But chances do improve when key players are lost to thw opposing team.

(Unless that team is OSU.)

You dont realize how big of a loss this is for them...they can account all they want but this dude was a DUDE 

This is a very reasoned take. We almost have to assume we'll lose at least 3 and maybe all 4 against OSU, Wisc, PSU, and UW. And logic says we'll probably lose another one against the lesser teams. So it feels like 8-4 is the ceiling. 

Let me remind you of a team that had 3 wins in a full season (unlike last season's 6 games that Michigan played).  A team that had a full Spring Practice (unlike last year's Michigan team).  Let me remind you of what THIS BLOG said about them, going into the 2017 season.  Yep....we are talking about the 3-9 MSU squad, who only won ONE game in conference play.

"3-9 (1-8 B1G), no bowl but retained dignity

Recap:  To break the fourth wall, dear reader, let me bring you into my living room. I sit here with a Bell’s Two Hearted in hand. My fingers have been hovering over the keyboard for several minutes. No words have come. No snark. No jokes. No pity. Nothing. I've got nothing.

Michigan State’s 2016 season and subsequent offseason were so impossibly cataclysmic that even now, 49 weeks removed from their struggling opening win over Furman, I still can’t fully grasp the thing. This was Michigan State as Icarus flying too close to the couch fire. It was Lockheed Martin programming an entire Big Ten football program in feet instead of meters. It was Captain Smith ramming a defending B1G Champion and College Football Playoff semifinalist directly into an iceberg as a string quartet played “Nearer My Brah To Thee.”

Surely I need not recount Sparty’s failures to you, but for convention requires that I do so anyway. They lost nine games. They lost an assistant and 5% of their scholarship players (including the cream of their best recruiting class in years) to unspeakably unpleasant criminal situations. On national signing day alone they lost one target to South Alabama, another target to a walk-on slot at Northwestern, and a commit to felony charges. They lost another half-dozen projected starters or contributors to, and I quote,  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

It’s hard to even identify the low point; on the field, it was proooooobably the loss to Illinois, though the four week stretch with losses to Indiana, BYU, Northwestern, and Maryland may be cumulatively worse. Meanwhile, the off-field stuff rivals any series of player-specific calamities I can recall for a single school. The only thing comparable was the fate that befell Mr. Burns' softball team. 

But other than that, things are looking up in East Lansing.

This team is as frightening as: Hoooo boy. This is a dilemma. If this was an identical set of circumstances, returning talent and coaching at, say, Minnesota, they would be like a Fear Level 3. But out of sheer reflexive fear of reviving the #Disrespekt Monster, I’ll say Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: LJ Scott ran for 139 yards on 22 carries against Michigan last year, and you will recall that those were definitely not garbage time carries.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State registered eleven sacks last year. Eleven. That is one more than Michigan got from guys named Taco."

Yeah....that team finished the 2017 season with a 10-3 record, and #15 in the Nation.  Let's keep that in mind, when we talk about the Michigan predictions for this season.

Comments like yours make me laugh.

It's a no lose situation, for you.  Nobody knows how the season is going to go.  To put a "max" on the win/loss prediction is silly.

You can continue to give negative prognostications, and if you're right, then you will just continue to beat your chest and say, "SEE, I TOLD YOU".  If you're wrong, then you'll just disappear or just pretend that you never said that ("enjoying the ride").  Seriously, that's the reality of the situation.

People like you continue to say shit like this every year, but then get pissed when we aren't winning championships.  Makes no sense.  How can people like you CONSTANTLY say "at most 7-8 wins", every year, but then a 10 win season is a disappointment, to you?  It would make more sense for the people who are confident in an undefeated season to be disappointed in a 10 win season.  My point is....you can't have it both ways.  You can't be "realistic" on your predictions, but then still have unrealistic expectations on the results.

Are you going to be happy with a loss to a team like Indiana?  No?  Why?  Because you don't think they should be beating us.  So, why do you continue to say there's no way to beat a team like Indiana?  If they don't, then you get to show how "smart" you are.  If they do, then you get to say, "no big deal, they should beat Indiana....let's see how they do against 'insert team here'.  They most certainly won't beat them".  Then the cycle continues until the end of the season, then you get to use the benefit of retrospect to make judgments on the season.  It's ridiculous.

It's also ridiculous to say the "max" is 7/8 wins.  Based on what, exactly?

Your "expert" opinion, based on your limited knowledge?  Based on what happened a year prior....not considering roster turnover, literal growth (height and weight), knowledge growth, skill improvement, grasping the position (based on more time in the program), changing of coaching, injuries, etc....?  Those are all very important factors in what ACTUALLY happens in the fall.  Nobody outside of the program have ANY clue to the reality of any of that.  You certainly don't have any clue how those same circumstances impact the rosters of the opposing teams, so you have no clue as to how good they will be.....other than the name on the front of their jersey.

So....give me a roster breakdown of every team on our schedule.  Tell me how each person on their team has looked in their practices.  Tell me their gains and losses in the weight room.  Then, cross reference their skill level vs the skill level of Michigan's players and schemes.

Then, tell me exactly how Michigan's new defensive scheme is going to look.  Tell me how Gattis is going to call plays, based on the experience level and skill of the current players.  Tell me exactly how everyone has performed in spring practice, and tell me how much they'll get better and learn more in fall practice.  Tell me which players those results will actually show up on game days, and which players will revert back once the "bright lights come on".

Then....I want you to go over the schedule, and take into account home and away games (with fans in the stands), and calculate the impact on that "advantage".

Then, I want you to tell me exactly what games will be impacted by important injuries on the opposing team.  After that, I want you to tell me which game and exactly what players will be injured on Michigan.  Tell me how those particular players will impact those particular games, because certain games will have more importance on certain players.

Once you can do ALL of that.....then we'll listen to your "max wins" predictions.  Even then....you'll still have no realistic idea, because this is college athletics......and sports outcomes (in general) make no sense (otherwise, Alabama would win the championship every single year, and teams like Michigan would never lose to teams like Appalachian State).

So.....please, stop with your "max" bullshit.

The "Max" is 15 wins.  Is that realistic expectations?  Probably not, but we don't really know.

So....again.....I think that 10-3 is a very real POSSIBILITY, based on what our schedule looks like.  Just my opinion. 

What you aren't going to hear me say are some grandiose statements about minimums or maximums, and pretend that my opinion is the end all be all.....and anything differing from my opinion is absurd.  I'll leave that BS to people like you.