OT: Tigers vs. Yankees - Game Two (Price's Debut)
A nice start offensively, Rajai and Miggy with hits that lead to an RBI sac fly. 1-0 Tigres.
You have great conversations with your doppelganger.
Avoiding throwing back to 1st so he could step on Ellsbury
/s
Some people asked a thread ago about just how bad Alex Avila is. Here's some rankings among catchers with a minimum of 250 PA (26 catchers):
Batting
WAR: 19th
BA: 24th
OBP: 14th
SLG: 24th
K%: 24th
Fielding
dWar: 6th
Defensive Runs Saved: 4th
So.... yeah. To me, he's a big "meh" but not as bad as some people like to make out. His biggest issues is clearly the strikeouts.
I would more or less agree with this sentiment - it may not look the best all the time, but on many other metrics (not just the ones you mention), Avila tends to sit somewhere near the MLB average for the position. That is just fine by me, and when you consider that his WAR and dWAR are both north of 1.0, I am not sure what more fans expect in this context. I would think that, for the Tigers, Avila serves just fine. Actually, his offensive runs above replacement (oRAR) is positive, so by many statistical measures, he is contributing positively. Those things being considered, even including the rather streaky offense, I personally would rather Avila was out there than a lot of other people.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:39 PM ^
tiger fans have a bad habit of turning on players. i think it goes back to inge (probably further, of course).
some fans irrationally loved him, most, rationally (imo) hated him. and mgmt (leyland) stubornly played him every night till he was almost literally boo'd out of town.
it was the exact same for raburn.
since, theres always seemed to be one whipping boy. boesch, coke, avila. even JV gets a ton of vitriol from the fans.
August 5th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^
just after Avila made a home run in the 12th inning. In fact, that's why I signed on out of curiosity after that thread a game ago.
Strikesout over 40% of the time vs LHP.He should be semi-platooned & PH for late in games vs a LHP.
Is there any manager in the league that ever pinch hits for their catcher when there's no injury? Maybe in the playoffs, but it's just not done. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it is the most important defensive position, even at the big leagues. If you lose both catchers in one game, you're very likely to lose that game.
Tigers have V.Mart if Holiday got hurt.7th inning or later,behind a run ,1 out bases loaded and Avila up vs LHP = strikeout.I do get your point re 2nd catcher getting hurt tho.
But then you have forfeited the DH which you definitely don't want to do. Assuming you are trailing in a game that you pinch hit the catcher: If you tie the game up, there's still game to be played and I would hate to have to move Victor to DH and then have the pitcher's slot hitting behind Cabrera.
If you're situation happens in the playoffs then I'd say no still. First: A strikeout isn't the end of the world - you still have another batter coming up. Maybe you pinch hit that batter with your best option.
Or you don't pinch hit anywhere because it's only the 7th and you still have your beasts with an AB coming up and you don't want to have to go to scramble-mode defensively with 2+ innings to go.
Ninth inning or later? Maybe. But of course, now we're talking end-of-season scenarios and there are no rules in those situations.
All of that is true but only applies if Holiday gets injured in 7th-9th inning of a tie game or when Tigers behind a run vs a LHP.Highly unlikely.Bottom line is Avila's #'s vs LHP are poor so his AB's vs LHP should be limited more than they have been.
Price gave up a hit in bottom 1st.....damn shame we lost out on that trade already.
Damn... between yesterday's thread and this just before McCann's homer I feel like its a jynx...
I love when the Tiger bats take team wide naps....
For all the talk about the added speed, the offense is still pretty much all or nothing. This does not bode well for a playoff run, assuming they even get there since KC was only 4.5 games back entering tonight.
I just don't think this team has what it takes to get it done, hopefully I am wrong.
Can you explain what you mean by "all or nothing"? Because the Tigers are 5th in team runs scored, 1st in team batting average, 2nd in team OBP and 2nd in team SLG.
I think Tigers fans have become completely spoiled by having an elite offense for about 6 years now. Nobody remembers what it's like to have a truly average (let alone poor) offense.
Those numbers don't mean a whole lot to counter what I said, if huge offensive games (which has happened a number of times this season) are skewing the overall numbers.
It isn't even just the runs, it's also the fact that the Tigers don't do a good job of driving up opposing pitcher's pitch counts consistently. They are 12th in the AL in walks. The offensive effort last night and so far tonight has been pathetic in that respect.Oakland has scored the most runs in the AL, despite having many team ranks that are worse than the Tigers. They have drawn the most amount of the walks in the league though.
Than they would be more than 13 games over at this point, and not on the verge of dropping to the 4th best record in the AL. Considering I have watched or listened to 90% of the games this season, I think I would know if they were as good as you are describing. They have been very inconsistent, plain and simple. Pretty much the same as the last 6 years.
Oakland is clearly the favorite and best team in the AL right now. I wish that wasn't the case, but there is really no argument that could be made otherwise.
How about the case that the Tigers are 5-2 against the A's this season? Let's see what happens in the playoffs, it's a crap shoot every single year, just get in.
Case in point, the main issues with last year's team throughout the year were an inconsistent offense and bullpen issues. As it turns out those two things cost them the series against Boston.
I agree that you never know what can happen in the playoffs, but I don't like this team's odds at the moment unless some of the issues are fixed by the playoffs.
Not every issue is going to be fixed though, you know this as you're someone who has talked baseball the last few years on this blog. The 06 Cardinals were about as flawed of a WS team as they get, and it didn't mean squat in the postseason.
The A's right now have had a poor week scoring runs since the loss of Cespedes, maybe their offense is now worse than the Tigers. The Angels and Orioles will have a tough time competing with their starting rotations in a 7 game series. It's all going to be a crap shoot in the end, I'll gladly take the Tigers chances with guys like Cabrera, V-Mart, Scherzer, and Price.
Those numbers don't mean a whole lot to counter what I said,
Yeah but you provide no evidence that the Tigers are theoretically "all or nothing."
Here's something that'd be nice to see, but take take: What is the tiger's average run scored per game. Then, what is the standard deviation of that number. Now do that for all teams. If the Tigers have a standard deviation in the highest 25% of MLB teams, that would support your argument.
Seriously, that'd be some great stats to see... Do you have any statistical evidence to your claim that the Tigers are "all or nothing"?
Plus, is doesn't really mean that all or nothing is bad. If I score three runs a game, every game, is it better than a team that also averages three runs a game but has a huge variation game-to-game?
However, I have watched or listened to about 90% of the games this season. It is not hard to detect a pattern when you follow a team closely on a day to day basis.
It's also easier to see a your team's flaws when you watch them on a daily basis, do you watch other teams and notice all their flaws as well.
Exactly. If you watch OTHER teams with more regularity and the Tigers with slightly less, then I'm more inclined to listen to "touchy-feely" arguments.
Figures of all players he hits a HR. Have to love baseball!
Couple offensive team stats from Fangraphs:
- The Tigers have the second best OWar (Anaheim). Oakland is 6th, behind the Dodgers at 5.
- The Tigers have the second best OBP (Pittsburgh). Followed by (in order): Toronto, Tampa, Colorado, Anaheim, Oakland, LA.
- The Tigers have the second highest OPS (Colorado). Followed by: Toronto, Anaheim, CWS, Oakland.
- Oakland has the highest K/BB ratio at .54. The Tigs are at .39 (13th) just behind the Angels.
- Here's the big one: The Tigers have the second best BABIP at .318 (Colorado). The Athletics are second LAST at .284. Worse than the Mets, the Astros and everyone not playing in San Diego.
Every team is flawed in some way. However, the Tigers are built to win in the playoffs - the A's are not. Sure, their K/BB ratio is pretty. It would be nice to feast off the tire fire that is the Astros rotation. However, when you face Price, Scherzer and Sanchez in a series, you're not getting a lot of walks. You better have a good average when you put the ball in play, and the A's certainly don't.
Their starting rotation, at least by the numbers, is the best in the AL right now. Their bullpen is also top notch, they have five guys with sub 2.55 ERA's. Losing Cespedes hurts their offense, but that pitching rotation is good enough to win in the playoffs, even with a worse offense.
I honestly I don't understand how you can say the Tigers are built to win in the playoffs, but the A's are not. Pitching first and formost is what gets it done in the playoffs (with some timely hitter of course), and the A's are just flat out better in that aspect right now, most notably in the pen.
You are correct - I meant the A's offense isn't necessarily built to win in the playoffs. They may have the best combo (SP, pen, offense) however and that's the ultimate measure.
But I think their offense is much more likely than the Tigers to struggle in the post-season.
The move to get Price is huge. It means the Tigers will have a advantage in starting pitching in every match-up with the A's. When you consider that, plus the advantage the Tigers have at the plate, I really like the Tigers as long as Soria and Nathan get straightened out.
Plus, I don't consider Hammel as a sub-2.55 ERA guy. Samardija either. Let's see what their numbers look like after more time in the AL.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:02 PM ^
I also don't understand where your getting that the Tigers have an advantage in every starting pitching matchup. Are you basing that on what has happened in the past? If you look at the matchups based on what the pitchers are doing this year, I don't see how anybody could come to that conclusion.
The only real edge the Tigers starting rotation might have is in overall playoff experience.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^
Price > Lester
Scherzer > Gray
Sanchez > Samardzija
Verlander > Kazmir
My opinion, but I'm confident with all four matchups. I don't trust Kamzir to continue to be 1.5 runs per nine better than his career average. Samardzija's numbers are already on the rise after the move to the AL.
Also, remember that the A's pitching numbers are inflated thanks to playing the Astros, Mariners and Rangers. Those three teams rank 28th, 24th, and 10th in batting average in MLB. Those are two afwul offenses and one average-to-bad offense. By comparison, the Indians, White Sox and Twins rank 7th, 6th, and 20th in MLB BA, respectively. (Angels = 3rd, Royals = 5th). Plus, Oakland plays in a pitcher friendly park while the Tigers play in a slightly hitter friendly park.
Oh, ERA and bullpen. I don't deny the A's pen is better, just that using ERA for a bullpen guy is a ridiculous thing to do. WHIP and k/9 are much better statistics to use for bullpen arms.
Ok well let's break this down:
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Scott Kazmir hasn't thrown over 158 innings since 2007 so he could start to break down as the season wears on, his last 2 outings have been garbage against the weak hitting Astros and Royals.
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Jeff Smarfnkdsbfsd hasn't even pitched in a playoff atmosphere, let alone a game that reallly truly had any pressure built in.
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Sonny Gray is solid, tough to say if he falls off or not (doubtful)
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Jon Lester is as good as they come in the postseason, but he also has had trouble with the Tigers in the past, and this year more than ever the Tigers offense is much better against lefties.
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Jason Hammel sucks in the AL, seriously he's an NL pitcher that has yet to adjust. This is probably irrelevant as he won't see the field in the playoffs.
The Tigers rotation is proven, and is still superior in overall sample size, I'll take our rotation over Oakland's 7 days of the week.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:07 PM ^
However, I don't think your giving Sonny Gray, in particular, enough credit. He has a career 2.61 ERA so far, and performed well in his two postseason starts last year.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:11 PM ^
I'd kill for a young guy like Sonny Gray in our rotation, he's had a great year and a half in the show. That said he also crumbled a bit in the rubber game 5 last year. Now obviously that builds experience which he'll have in what could be a similar situation this year.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:15 PM ^
Well, Price and Joba got us through the 9th unscathed. With where we're at in the order, we're going to have to wait until the 11th if we want to win this thing.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:17 PM ^
Did Joba just say Fuck Yeah?
Fox Detroit let it slip by TWICE.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:17 PM ^
Here's that lefty-lefty Avila pinch hit scenario....
Not a great swing on 1-0. Should have listened to Rod and took all the way.
August 5th, 2014 at 10:50 PM ^
I'm gonna call a JD Martinez homer here.