MichiganExile

July 31st, 2009 at 1:52 PM ^

Not that this deal won't work in the Tigers favor but French is almost a Washburn clone only more than a decade younger and the Tigers are paying his salary next year. I would almost wager money that Wash and French will have similar seasons from here out. I think they bought a little high to be honest.

MichiganExile

July 31st, 2009 at 2:37 PM ^

Washburn for the past 4 years has been a borderline major league starting pitcher. The only reason he has stuck in the M's rotation is due to lack of talent and depth in their system. His resurgence this year is the only real reason he has gotten many looks. I agree Robles has the higher upside, but after watching Washburn pitch the past few years I would say I have no problem taking a flier on French. He is a decent back end starter whose style translates very well to Safeco field. Flyball lefty who stays in and around the zone. Reminds me very much of Wash. He does have a question mark as he has not established himself as a major league pitcher yet, but then again I was never very enamored with Washburn so maybe my opinion of this deal and what the M's got is tainted a little. In any case I'd still rather have French than Carlos Silva on the mound.

Yinka Double Dare

July 31st, 2009 at 12:13 PM ^

That's your impetus for this move. He's been ineffective for about a month now, and the Tigers have wanted all along to limit his innings. Now you can cross your fingers and hope that regression to the mean and luck (Washburn having an ERA well below his FIP, which itself is low due to an oddly low HR/FB%, and Jackson being well below his FIP due to an unsustainably low BABIP) doesn't bite the team, because the Tigers still don't have the offense to survive that. Good thing the division sucks, teams with offenses as lousy as the Tigers and White Sox usually aren't contenders.

MH20

July 31st, 2009 at 1:21 PM ^

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play. Take a guy like Galarraga, he had a ridiculously low BABIP last season (way below the average) which definitely played into his low ERA and favorable record (13-7 I think). He was getting pretty lucky on balls that were put into play - they were finding fielders' gloves at a much higher rate than most. Fast forward to this season and I bet ya Galarraga's BABIP is back to the mean (or above it).

chitownblue2

July 31st, 2009 at 1:28 PM ^

To sort of clarify further, there are many studies that suggest that pitchers can really only control 4 things: Flyball/grounball ratio Strikeouts Walks Homeruns Once a ball is put into play, nearly every single pitcher's career number settles around a .300 batting average against. Pitcher's that, over seasons, allow lower total batting averages do so by striking lots of people out. So, this year, Jarrod Washburns Batting average on Balls in Play is around .240 - nearly 60 points behind what you can reasonably expect a pitcher to do. The reasons for this are likely twofold: -The Mariners have good defense. -Washburn has been extremely lucky, and is due for a regression to the mean.

Yinka Double Dare

July 31st, 2009 at 1:44 PM ^

Good defense only does so much though, most of it is luck. Even guys on great defensive teams typically have BABIPs somewhere in the normal range. Guys do occasionally maintain a normally-unsustainably low BABIP for a whole season, but a vast majority do regress toward the mean and end up with a BABIP of at least .270 (which is very low but you see guys with it every year, they're almost entirely just lucky). As for FIP, it stands for Fielding Independing Pitching, and is a stat meant to take out the influence of defense to reflect what your actual performance (HR, BB, K, things you can control) and show your "true" runs average. Based on the Voros McCracken finding that pitchers can't control the ball when it is in play and all pitchers gravitate toward a certain BABIP. Only knuckleballers seem to consistently have a below-average BABIP, but that's based on a small sample size and might not be accurate.

MichiganExile

July 31st, 2009 at 1:49 PM ^

Overall they may be pretty good but Wash is historically a fairly extreme fly baller. How good is your outfield defense? A big problem for Jarrod the past few years has been the gaping pit of suck that was Raul Ibanez in left field. I know you have Granderson acting like death to flying things in center but if either one of the corners is below average watch out.

wishitwas97

July 31st, 2009 at 2:14 PM ^

Washburn's career BABIP is .280 which is still lower than the mean. Even if Washburn regress a little bit but it won't be by much. Apparently, his new pitch, split finger fastball, is what makes him a harder pitcher to hit against than in previous year.

MichiganExile

July 31st, 2009 at 1:23 PM ^

Best analysis I have seen. You beat me to it. Let me preface this by saying I am a gigantic Mariners fan. I am happy to be rid of Wash's contract. I hope he helps the Tigers but don't get your hopes up. Wash's resurgence has much less to do with learning a new pitch and a great deal to do with an upgrade to our now spectacular outfield defense and a lot of luck as well . Again I hope he helps you guys out and wish him the best but I like the trade from the M's side.

MichIOE01

July 31st, 2009 at 1:59 PM ^

but what if they could still pull the trigger on the Halladay deal? A starting rotation of Halladay, Washburn, Verlander, Jackson, and whoever. Plus you'd have at least Halladay, Verlander, and Jackson in the rotation next year. You'd have to give up a lot (Porcello, Perry, and Crosby) but wow, that is a pretty stellar rotation.

JC3

July 31st, 2009 at 11:50 AM ^

ESPN was lauding how the Mariners GM was so intelligent to let go of Washburn after realizing they wouldn't go anywhere. Screw that, great pickup Tigers!

wolverine1987

July 31st, 2009 at 12:20 PM ^

isn't the Tigers' problem hitting? Don't they have the second best staff ERA in the league now? And with Inge having what looks like a major knee issue, Ordonez on the down side, and Guillen unproven yet, where is the offense going to come from? Don't get me wrong, pitching, like defense in football, wins. But the Tigers have been terrible with runners on base this year, and this deal doesn't do anything to solve that.

TTUwolverine

July 31st, 2009 at 12:27 PM ^

but this was a good deal that didn't require a whole hell of a lot in return. Not only that, who's to say that there are any impact bats out there on the trade block that the Tigers could afford. I can't think of any that really stand out in my mind, but I suppose I haven't really done my research either. Plus, we now obviously have the best pitching in the Central, and we should still be able to pull it out in the end despite our crappy offense.

Callahan

July 31st, 2009 at 1:10 PM ^

I agree. I was afraid that the Tigers were going to roll the dice that Porcello was not going to burn out and either 1) he would, in fact, burn out, or worse 2) he would get hurt. This is a good move for the Tigers maintaining their pitching advantage should Porcello need to be shut down. But I can't see this team being a realistic WS contender without adding a bat that can play the field as well, preferably a left-handed one.

Rescue_Dawn

July 31st, 2009 at 12:28 PM ^

the fact he is a free agent after this season....hopefully we can lock him up for a year or 2, but it looks like dombrowski still has some of that old majic left. Nice move.

MichiganExile

July 31st, 2009 at 2:51 PM ^

Unless he takes a severe paycut I would bet my liver he won't be back in Seattle next year. Jack Zduriencik is building a contender for the future and he is doing that by acquiring boom or bust live arms. His youth movement and the organizational shift began last offseason and it will not change now unless the price is right, and by right I mean slightly above the poverty line. Book it, Wash will not be an M next year.

emmekel

July 31st, 2009 at 12:29 PM ^

it but I wish he could hit too. I hope the tigers can pick up a bat from somewhere before 4pm today. This is better than just not doing anything though.

Koyote

July 31st, 2009 at 12:31 PM ^

I like this deal. But would like it even more if we managed to pick up someone who could help the Tigers get some runs by the end of the day. 4 hours left I think right?