OT: Tigers' playoff potential
Alright, so I know not everyone here is a Tigers fan, and if you're not, feel free to ignore this thread or offer your opinion on your favorite baseball team. But what do you all think of the Tigers' chances at reaching the postseason? Personally, I have no idea. They have been so inconsistent this season that it's hard to say. When they've been good, they've been very good, but when they've been bad, they've been very bad. I'm just looking for opinions and some discussion because I'm bored at work and I'm pissed at the Tigers right now.
Personally, I think our offense is fine and our bullpen has started to come around lately (except for Schlereth, I don't know why he's not in Toledo, or even Erie right now), our starting pitching has started coming down to earth over the past month, but I don't think Scherzer is as bad as he's been pitching lately (he's also not as good as his 9 wins might indicate), and I think each of our starters has the ability to give our offense a chance to win every time out. I think our biggest deficiancy right now is on defense. I just don't see how the coaching staff expects to succeed when you're playing Kelly and Raburn on the infield (or anywhere on the field, for that matter). I've heard some people say they would love to get David Wright for third, but is he really worth it?
I think the Tigers are in an awkward position as an organization. They've tried to put themselves in a position to win now by adding cornerstone-type players (Cabrera and Martinez, to go with Verlander), and that's come at the expense of their farm system. But I think you would expect that from a team trying to win now. You do what you can to make your big league team as good as possible to try to give yourself the best chance to win. The only problem is, we're not good enough to win a World Series, or even get there. I think we can win the division, but that's more a testament to the crappiness of the division than the skill of the team. So we've got a big league team with holes and a farm system that is seriously lacking depth, and that seems like a recipe for disaster. But what do you do? Do you try to rebuild the farm system and focus on the future? You can, but then I'm assuming guys like Cabrera and Martinez won't have the patience for that process. I think Verlander would since he's been with the Tigers from day 1, but I wouldn't blame him if he didn't. Who doesn't want to win now? So if we don't want to part ways with our big-ticket items, how do we get an elite roster? Do we have the payroll to grab someone like David Wright? I don't think so. We're pretty much maxed out already. So you try a trade. But who are we going to trade? We don't really have much depth anywhere, except for our minor league starting pitchers. But those guys are really the only minor leaguers we have who have some potential. It seems pretty dreary to me. What do the rest of you think?
I think if they stay 1 game behind the Indians, they won't be going to the playoffs.
People get flamebaited for stating their opinion? Man.
I think they're certainly good enough to be a playoff team but gut feeling says they just miss. And only for one reason: simply because they've missed the past 4 years when they defintly should've made it a few of those times. I'd predict 85-90 wins and a second place finish
Honestly, I think the only team that is going to come close to winning the division (unless we just totally crap our pants in the second half) is Minnesota, and maaaybe Chicago. I don't think Cleveland is good enough to stay in first place for the rest of the season (and I thought that before they started slumping). Minnesota has been on the receiving end of a ton of bad luck, and they're only going to get better as more guys get healthy. I think Chicago only has a shot if Adam Dunn suddenly starts hitting the ball and they pick up a good starter from somewhere.
Why do the Sox need another starter?
I mean, if you really think Phil Humber will maintain a .225 BABIP for the rest of the season go ahead, but that will take a lot of luck. I said they need another because I don't think they can win the division with the rotation they have. Peavy can't stay healthy and he hasn't shown any of his old self when healthy, and everyone else is pretty mediocre.
The Tigers have one awesome starter, one guy with Gavin Floyd syndrome (great stuff but a flake) and garbage that probably wouldn't even crack the White Sox's top 6 starters. The Sox don't need another starter. They need Floyd and Jackson to pitch to their stuff, and they need guys like Dunn, Rios and Beckham to actually play to their talent.
What they need more than anything is a guy who gets on base at the top of the order. Pierre wasn't good before. Now he doesn't even do the things that actually made him non-worthless, since he can't steal bases and his defense has been lousy. That they're only 4.5 back despite having only three hitters worth a damn this year (Konerko has been spectacular, Quentin good but streaky, and Ramirez wasn't as bad as usual in April and has heated up along with the weather as he always does), spectacular bullpen explosions in April, and their prsumed best starter going 0-8 to start the year (due in significant part to terrible run support, but still) is a testament to the crapitude of the AL Central.
Ya, but Minnesota is just removed from being the worst team in baseball. Yes, I know they were injured and are on a huge win streak (9-1 in last ten games), but if you look at it, they swept a bad (worst place in their division) Padres, beat a below 500 Sox team twice, did take 3 out of 4 from Texas (who has about the same record as we do, and just shelled San Fran with a similar record to us. If they can keep riding this streak out to several games over 500 then I will believe they are ready to win the division.
To OP, Tigers inconsistency is frustrating. Defense is bad (but I don't think Don Kelly is a bad defender anywhere on the field) and offense comes and goes. With the Tigers being 500 against other divisions in the AL and sub 500 against the NL, it is tough to say that we will be competitive in the playoffs.
Only positive is: we are a half game back on Texas who leads the AL West, half game back on the Tampa Bay Rays who are a decent team (and like Minnesota surging; Yankees and Boston above us), 1.5-2 games back on Brewers who lead NL Central, .5 back on St. Louis who is secondin NL Central, 1 back on Diamondbacks who lead NL West, and .5 back on Giants who are second in West. We are competitive with most MLB (not Yankees, Boston, Phillies, and Braves), although one could say our record is saturated with easy wins against our division.
That 2006 team wasn't the most talented either but they made a run. I am not as down about thr farm system as others, and I'd rather try to win now and build up the system along the way.
As for this year, they are inconsistent but not so that I couldn't see them get hot for a couple of weeks and win the AL. It is still June, so no need to worry yet.
I think we'll finish ahead of the Indians, but I'm scared about the Twins. They make this run every year, and they could easily keep it up.
This season has been too streaky.. Either losing 10 in a row or winning 10 in a row (those are exaggerations, I have no idea if that's even right.) and if we play more consistently, I think the Tigers are playoff bound.
I'm not saying this because I'm a White Sox fan but look out for the Sox, also. We are hanging in there with little production from Dunn and Rios. I'm with you though, the Twins as always, will continue to surge.
I am not worried about the Twins as much because they would need to go on an historic run to win the division and I don't see them having the talent to do it.
I don't know about that. They have won 8 in a row and are only 6.5 back now.
I wouldn't put it past the Twins to make a historic run... look at the 2009 season. But on the otherhand, they aren't playing at the metrodome anymore.
I am not worried about the Twins as much because they would need to go on an historic run to win the division and I don't see them having the talent to do it.
they have a very good team when healthy and before this interleague play we had been playing great. our problem is our starting pitching not keeping us in the game outside of Verlander and i believe it is time to give Charlie Furbush and shot and move brad penny because he hasnt played well outside of at home. As for the offense i think the stats show a different story than the game lines because right now we're #6 in the MLB in runs per game but the difference is we will score 1 run one game then the next score 8 so its far from consistent. The defense is very weak except when our outfield consists of Casper Wells, Andy Dirks, and Ajax but that isnt good because of a lack of offense. i think our young players are much more consistent this year in the form of Boesch, Avila, and Porcello but we need those monster numbers from Cabrera but i wouldnt mind seeing our lineup have a bunch of guys with a lot of RBIs and good average. Ryan Raburn needs to go though he is a defensive liability and isnt a good hitter. i could see us making a move for Hanley Ramirez because he is not what the Marlins want and the manager doesnt respect him. another name to look for is Howie Kendrick of the angels. well see how it plays out but dont go by looking at the recent interleague games because our lineup is hampered by no DH and i think we will be fine and make the playoffs because no other team in the central has the tools we have. the twins have a good offense but they have no star pitcher or the minor leaguers to trade for one. chicago is in a similar situation as the twins they tried to trade for an all star starter but Ejax isnt consistent and Peavy cant stay off the DL. Im not worried about the indians at all because they dont have a good offense outside of Carlos santana and asdrubal cabrera to go along with no pitching
Ajax is a sick nickname for Austin Jackson. Is it yours? I haven't heard it before, but I haven't been able to catch too many Tiger games lately.
with Rod and Mario they reference it sometimes but you hear it a lot on the other message boards.
yankee fan here. we had that nickname for him too before the grandy trade.
its just not that famous with most tigers fans. Most players with the last name jackson get the nickname [Insert first letter of name here] jax
I was at the Dodgers/Tigers game last night and it was pretty tought to watch. I agree with a lot of your points, but I also think that the 2006 team (or was it 2005) that went to the world series wasn't necessarily a team that looked World Series bound from the get go.
We haven't even hit the All Star break yet, and in my opinion teams really don't start pushing hard until after that happens, so i think as long as we keep pace with Cleveland for now and work towards a big push, we should be ok.
One thing that has always frustrated me about the Tigers as of late is Leyland (Sp?). If you look at his career record, you pretty much get what the Tigers have had the last few years....inconsisten .500 baseball. I love the guy to death, but i sometimes sense a little lack of energy/creativity/drive from him. I am starting to persoanlly move towards the opinion that maybe it's time for some fresh blood at the helm of this team. Just my two cents.
I was also at the game last night (huge showing of Tiger fans). What struck me was how weird of a lineup and collection of talent -- they have huge "A" talent in Cabrera, Martinez, Avila, Bosch (maybe)...then really no "B" talent -- everyone else is "C" or below. With Raburn -- horrible, Dirks, Santiago, Kelly in the starting lineup -- I dont know how you can consistently win with that team
There is no lack of creativity with Leyland. In fact, trying to get way too cute is often his undoing. The guy is a career sub-.500 manager and is treated like an untouchable in this town. It's a fucking joke.
I agree with a lot of your points, but I also think that the 2006 team (or was it 2005) that went to the world series wasn't necessarily a team that looked World Series bound from the get go.It was 2006. The Tigers actually had the best record in baseball for most of the season before falling apart in the final month and only making the wild card.
Milwaukee got somthin brewin
Looking at their roster before the season began, I thought they would have a good chance to win their division. Unless the Reds can figure out their pitching staff over the second half, I think the Brewers have the highest likelihood of maintaining their current success over the rest of the season (compared to the Reds and Cards).
I think they need to finish off June better and have a strong July. Leyland's teams have historically struggled in the second half and it seems like only a matter of time before Chicago or Minnesota go on a run. The Tigers are on pace to win 85 games and that isn't enough. If they can heat up enough to get to 90, I think that will win this division.
I can't beleive he sat Boesch on Monday. He's batting 345 against left handers and he sits him?
Raburn has to go, I think there hoping Carlos Guillen comes back to take over.
As long Leyland keeps playing Raburn and keeping his best line up on the bench we aren't going anywhere.
Well, I actually agreed with Leyland on his decision to sit Boesch. Kershaw has held leftys to a .185 average this year, and Leyland didn't want to take the risk of Boesch getting owned and then crushing his positive momentum right now.
sitting Brennan Boesch against a lefty because he has a .345 batting average in 70 plate appearances is not one of them. That sample size doesn't mean anything.
70 plate appearances is not a worthless sample size and Boesch's success against lefties is not unique to this season. During his ridiculous May/June stretch last year, he was hitting lefties more than righties as well.
is absolutely a worthless sample size. Most offensive stats need close to a full season to normalize.
I like Boesch, but sittong him Monday was fine. Leyland is not a big stats guy and definitely makes gut decisions more times than not, but Kershaw was dominant Monday and I didn't see a reason to have a guy go out there to be pwned if not necessary.
Leyland is not a big stats guy and definitely makes gut decisions more times than not
And that is why he sucks.
What do the rest of us think? I think that you just threw out a wall of text with lots of complaints about players, but zero suggestions on how to replace those guys.
You do not think that the Tigers can win with Raburn or Kelly in the lineup every day, but you do not suggest an alternative. My feeling there is that a playoff team can get by with one or two defensive-minded players whose bats are weak. This allows the Tigers to use Inge and/or Kelly at third base I think. Both of them are rock-solid with the glove at a very important defensive position. As far as Raburn goes, he is a talented hitter but has not performed well so far this year. I think you have to let him figure himself out somehow and hope the bat comes around for him. There simply is not a better option in the organization at second.
I also question your suppostion that the team is capable of winning the division, but has utterly zero chance to even make the World Series. My feeling is that if this team can get into the playoffs, they have a great chance to do well in short series. Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello form a really good front three. You get JV to throw twice in each series, and he is totally capable of winning a game almost by himself. If Detroit can get 5 wins from him over the course of the postseason, the rest of the pitching staff would need to get 6 wins total. Very doable.
The bottom line is that as a manager, Leyland can only make out a lineup with the players he has, so sometimes he has to go with the best option even if they are not an allstar caliber player. I am sure that the front office understands that it would be nice to add a couple more players via trade, but their pool of minor league talent is not deep enough to do much without gutting the team for years to come. If help comes before the trade deadline, you are probably not going to see a David Wright type acquisition. More likely you would see a lesser prospect dealt for a guy more like a Mark Ellis or something similar.
To address your point about suggestions for replacements, I think you missed my point. My point is that, just as you said, we don't have any better options anywhere, and that is due to lack of depth in our farm system and an already-tight budget. I almost would have preferred to see them stick it out with Sizemore rather than Raburn. We have been waiting for Raburn to "figure himself out" with the bat for the past 3 years and he just hasn't produced. And he's a defensive liability anywhere you put him.
I think you bring up a good point about pitching in the playoffs, but with Porcello still as young as he is, do you think he will have enough left in the tank to compete at a high level in the playoffs?
My point through all of this is not to just whine and complain about the Tigers. They do have a exciting team and I would say they are the favorite to win the division, but do they have what it takes to win a championship?
Holding your breath on Rayburn is a bad idea. Seems like a nice and hard working guy, but he just isn't a good player. It might have not been a bad idea about waiting on Sizemore, but if we waited until the trade deadline and Sizemore had not improved, his trading stock would have been worse than it was. Purcy has been a pretty good pickup: he does walk guys a bit much but he is pretty good.
Take Mark Ellis, please. Jemile Weeks is tearing it up, and is basically replacing Ellis at 2nd.
Can we have Weeks instead?
baseball fans react way too much to small sample sizes. This is still the same team that it was a week ago when it was on a hot streak: a top of the line ace, decent 2-3 starters, a bad back end of the rotation, an average lineup (although after looking at the numbers, it's clearly above average) with stars balanced out by terrible, terrible hitters (and a manager who can't figure out that his highest OBP guys need to bat at the top of the lineup), a bad defensive ball club, and a manager who still hasn't figured out that "small ball" means "doing things that cause your team to lose more baseball games."
In the terrible Central division, that probably still makes them the favorites, but it's not a good enough baseball team to go out and mortgage the future. If they trade Turner, Crosby or Castellanos for short term help, Dombrowski should be fired.
It will definitely be an interesting run to the playoffs. The Indians (my team) are struggling mightily right now, but are staying afloat. The Tigers will be in it until the end like usual. I also agree that the Twins and Sox will make a late run to make the division close. The Central Division, while not the greatest, is always one of the more interesting divisions throughout the season.
In fact it's legitimately good. Fangraphs has them 4th in the AL in team wOBA, 3rd in OBP, 5th in slugging and 4th in wRC+. There are some weak links in the lineup, but Avila, Peralta, and Boesch are giving them far more than they expected.
Whether that's sustainable is less clear.
Exactly. How many lineups do you see with great hitters 1-9? The Red Sox probably have the best lineup and even they have holes here and there. When we're at our best offensively, we've got 5 guys who can tear the cover off the ball (Cabrera, Martinez, Boesch, Avila, Peralta) and Jackson could be an elite leadoff man if he could get that K rate down. As AAB stated, the biggest question is whether Boesch, Avila, and Peralta can maintain their hot streaks throughout the course of the season.
Love the 5 big guys and for sake of argument, will give Jackson a pass. The problem is that the other 3 spots need to be filled with guys that can hit .250-275, provide a little speed or power...something. Not asking that we have a Red Sox lineup -- just that the other 3 spots in the lineup have been black holes of doom. Raburn is probably about the worst hitter in the league -- Figgins has been worse, but he at least has a little speed and isnt a complete disaster in the field. Dirks, Wells, Worth, Maggy, Santiago...feh
is exactly a replacement level player (he's been worth 0.0 wins according to Fangraphs). Figgins is a full win below replacement level (and WAR includes defense). Figgins has been much worse than Raburn, which is just horrifying.
I'd put Chicago 2nd at 25%. Cleveland is a fraud and Minnesota just gave up too much out of the gate. Rayburn and Inge should see extremely limited duty. The regular outfield should be Bosch, Jackson, and Maggs with Dirks seeing lots of ABs. Kelly is as good as (today's older) Inge at third and not as big a liability at the plate. Peralta is not nearly the liability in the field that I expected. Put Worth at 2nd (I'll tradet the bat for the glove in the middle infield). Miggy is Miggy. Avila is about to be Lance Parrish. I wasn't expecting this, especially so soon. We have the best Tiger pitcher in my lifetime (maybe McLain was better but I was in diapers). To make an '84 comparison Scherzer and Porcello are equivalent to Petry and Wilcox. I think the bottom of the rotation is good for winning 35% of its starts. The pen is above average, although the Benoit signing is baffling. Shorten the rotation to 4 in the playoffs and hope to make waves. Go Blue
and the thing the Tigers have going for them is a relatively consistent starting pitching rotation. Verlander, Scherzer are good enough 1-2 punch in a weaker central division, Penny will eat innings and be about .500 or a game or two over, and Porcello has potential to catch fire. For any baseball team making it to the playoffs, it really comes down to starting pitching and I think the Tigs have the best depth in rotation of any AL Central Div team. In terms of offense, you don't need to be the Yankees... just get enough offense to win 3 of 5 games each week. Tigs will probably be in a dogfight the whole season with CLE, CWS, and yes, the Twins, but it will in all liklihood come down to the last two weeks of the season and whether Cabrera / Boesch / Martinez can get hot enough to "carry" a team for a week or so. I see 85-90 wins and a Div win by less than 3 games.
The Tigers are built more for 2012, then for 2011
Guillen, Zumaya,Penny,Ordonez are off the books after this season
Take that money, go get a new LF, another bullpen arm , and a quality 3rd basemen and a solid 2nd basemen.
As for the starters , Turner and Oliver are gonna be up soon, so that will take care of the 4th and 5th starters, and you can move Coke back to the bullpen, he is not a starter.
I'm not sure if Raburn was a 1 or 2 year deal, I think Inge was a 2 year deal, that their regretting.
I think its time to cut both Inge and Raburn or trade them for anything you can get !
How about a second baseman? I would love a second baseman. And any names for who you would like to see them pursue for the outfield and SP spot?