OT - Reddit CFB Risk Update 6/8: New End Game
Last night I believe we only netted one territory total, but overall it was a good night for both us and our allies. Ohio State lost their safe territories behind Nebraska's lines and now only have 5 territories total, where 4 of them are surrounded by Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Clemson. Florida has been making a hard push out west and is now in position to mess with Nebraska's defenses much like we were a few days ago. Alabama and Chaos are also in precarious positions surrounded by our allies.
There was recently an announcement made by the game mods to introduce a hard deadline for the end of the game. CFB Risk is set to end on July 3rd and the winner will be determined by the most number of territories held. So there are a little under 30 turns left. Hopefully this encourages some of you guys to either join in on the game or to continue playing now that there is a clear end in sight.
Please click the link below to get your assignments for the day.
Please do not post about your assignments in the thread below. Trying to keep everything a little bit more secure after our mole issue.
Announcements:
The "Blue Alliance" has been re-dubbed the "Allied Forces" and now consists of Michigan, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida, and Texas. If you aren't using the website to get orders, then please refrain from attacking any territories controlled by our allies.
If you are a relatively new reddit user, please check the game page to ensure that you are not being flagged as a bot. If you are flagged you will see a text box like the one below. If you are flagged as a bot, your turns will not assist our chances to win (although you can still accumulate turns so you can level up stars). If you see this box, then follow the hyperlink to fill out the survey, but ALSO message /u/bakonydraco directly on reddit to get the issue sorted out.
Instructions to Join:
To join all you need to do is go to reddit.com/r/cfb and create an account if you don't already have one. Next, set your flair to Michigan. You can do this by clicking "Select Flair" on the right side of the cfb subreddit. Finally, you can join and play the game at https://vote.redditcfb.com/cfbrisk.php.
If you want to discuss the game in deeper detail and strategize with us, you can join our discord server found here: https://discord.gg/NZTdhta. We usually announce plans of what we want to attack/defend in the evenings, but we discuss strategy all day. Be warned though, there will be a vetting process to join the discord as we have had some mole issues from OSU. Even if you don’t pass the vetting process, we can still provide less-secret instructions in the general chat so that you can still help us towards our goals until we can fully 100% trust you.
Go Blue!
Instructions as to how to play:
At the beginning of the game. Every team was assigned one single territory, and so every territory is now named after that team. When you go to select an action in the game, you'll see option such as:
"Defend Buffalo", "Attack Penn State", "Attack Kent State".
This means that we border the location that was originally assigned to Penn State and Kent State. If you choose to attack Penn State, you will attempt to take that piece of land next round. Defend Buffalo, means that we currently own Buffalo's original homeland, and defending Buffalo means putting your stars towards keeping Buffalo from being taken.
After you submit what you're doing for the day, just sit back at wait! At Midnight EST all of the picks from all of the teams go in, and a random number generator selects a winner for each territory. Then it all happens again tomorrow.
Full instructions/explanations are available HERE
Here's today's map:
Sooooo... At what point do we say F our alliance and it just turns into every man for himself?
Yeah - we aren't close to the top # of Territories owned...they aren't going to reward us for being good allies!
#EveryManForHimself!
We're a ways off from that I think.
Next turn basically is the only correct way. Rudimentary game theory, changed by knowing the the final turn. Working backwards from the last turn each player will know that the want to break the deal first to gain an advantage hence, next turn.
That only works if you know when the last turn is. This game seems like it may have an infinite horizon.
Someone didn't read the OP very closely
That’s the mathematical solution, but not likely an accurate prediction. “Guess 1/3 of the average of the other people’s guesses” has a solution of zero, but the winner is always non-zero. You have to model how far forward your alliance partners are thinking, and what their preferred outcomes are. For example, any winner that excludes Ohio State or any team allied with it is preferable, although obviously Michigan winning is the most preferred.
That is rudimentary. When there are multiple teams, multiple alliances, and multiple team strengths, it gets a lot more complicated.
I’m one of the ones here that really misses the app, but at least it’s easier to see CFB Risk on Reddit on here.
no map, or is that just me?
regardless, you guys better win this thing. national security depends on it.
Maybe this has already been covered in one of the other posts, but doesn't having the orders be on a public site allow other alliances to figure out what we're planning to do?
It checks your reddit account to make sure you're playing for the good guys.
So someone would just have to create a burner account with a Michigan flair to check?
Not everyone is given the same instructions, so they'd have to create a lot of burner accounts.
Today's maps:
Kinda bummed that there will only be another 30 turns. Any particular reason for calling it quits so soon?
Seems like the main reason is that the devs are exhausted and need the game to end with enough time to do server upgrades before real CFB season starts.
well glad I got my 4th star yesterday so I can contribute more
This has an interesting effect on the game theory.
Essentially without an known end turn, collusion (allies) work better together. Variations of tit for tat etc.
Now that the end turn is published everyone should understand that only stable nash equilibrium is to cheat.
However I'm sure you'll have thought about this, like pretty much every other econ grad out there on any team.
Right, but betrayal of the alliance can’t happen too soon. Still, way too many turns left, considering the balance of power among many teams. But, it will increase the longer each team waits. The incentive to keep the alliances is greater with the bigger teams, like NE, FL, and UM. Temptation to break it is greater with the smaller teams early because smaller teams know they can’t make a late push. Still, smaller teams know they need the bigger teams and to go rogue risks quick doom by old enemies and the ones you just betrayed. This will get interesting.
Nebraska basically squatting on large swaths of totally irrelevant territory feels very appropriate.
The mods should allow for alliances to add up territories to a shared total. If that alliance wins, all members of the alliance have a shared win (regardless of the contribution of individual schools in that alliance). Schools would still be allowed to break or betray alliances if they think it serves them.... or if they want to try to get 1st place alone.
This would preserve incentive for alliances in the late game while maintaining the intrigue of a possible late game betrayal. It would also be interesting for schools not already in an alliance. The incentive is mutual to join one. I wonder if the game would reduce down to 2 competing alliances. It would be interesting to find out.
I feel like an every man for himself method is in our favor. Don't we have the highest number of users? Only reason our alliance made sense is because the red alliance was getting so strong.
This seems like a pretty unimaginative way to end the game. Would have been better if they started giving a bonus multiplier for the number of territories you hold, with that multiplier exponentially increasing over time (for a given number of territories held).
So is there anyway that Nebraska doesn’t win? We seem to have a good strategy to ultimately win the game should have been untimed, but now that there is one in the not too distant future, I question whether we can win. Obviously we will have to turn on our allies to win, but still seems like an uphill battle.
Effective July 4th I will never visit Reddit and their shitty posts again, unless of coarse they bring risk back...