OT: Lies, Damn Lies, and Next Gen Stats
This commercial with Christian McCaffery has been bugging me because I don't believe that the probability is that low based on where the players are. The linebacker is not bringing him down before the two or three, and there is a lot of room to the sideline. I think that 14.2% is an artifact of most goal line plays with defenders that close have the defenders in the way of the runner. Also, it seems that they are counting a lineman that is no longer running as a defender.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
Sports science is cool
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
If you want to lol at the straw-grasping of that show, watch the LeBron James sports science feature from 2013. Hilarity includes:
-During a dunk James swings his arm at about 1,124 degrees per second, which is as fast as a moving blade on a Chinook Helicopter.
-James generates a ton of force when he jumps to dunk, to catch a pass or to send your lay-up attempt into outer space. He delivers so much force, that if someone standing 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds created the exact same amount of force, his vertical jump would measure out at 57 inches.
-When James jumps, he can create a peak power output of close to 9,300 watts, according to Brenkus. That means the King creates enough power to light up four houses.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:36 PM ^
Cool... and dubious.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
Stop posting stupid shit, we don't need countless OP's...FFS
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
Sorry.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:19 PM ^
Or you could not read ..... I personally like an active board
January 3rd, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^
I like turtles
January 4th, 2021 at 2:18 AM ^
Marsupials scare me... Because they're fast.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
I believe what you were looking for was "Lies, damn lies, and advertisements."
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
All you need to know about the accuracy of these commercials is at one point they say McCaffrey has a maximum acceleration of "X yards/sec"
That's a unit of velocity, not acceleration. Acceleration is distance/s^2
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:19 PM ^
+1 for physics
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
Plus, his run path is an arc, so there’s angular momentum to consider. Don’t get me started on friction loss in his strides or the impact of gravitation forces!
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
Yeah, the numbers seem kind of made up. The number of defenders within a certain distance of McCaffrey doesn't seem as relevant as their position. In that play, he had one man to get past. The success rate for that situation would be more relevant.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
That’s what happens when you try to assign probability to a non-probabilistic event.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
Code analysis checks out.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:16 PM ^
Maybe they think he is likely to trip on the rungs of one of those sprint ladders on the field.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
More troubled by the Sex Panther stat.
60% of the time, it works 100% of the time.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
I find thats likely more accurate than these commercials
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:26 PM ^
Statistics never lie, statisticians often do.
Go Blue.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
If this bothers you, look into how precipitation forecasts are calculated sometime.
January 4th, 2021 at 12:00 AM ^
I've read there was a 0% probability of precipitation while standing in a downpour. They should probably cap the minimum precipitation probability percentage at 5% in Michigan.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
lol me too. It's a stupid commercial for exactly the reason you say. Any good NFL RB has a much higher than 14.2% chance of scoring. It bothers me.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
What cracked me up about the commercial is the guy he apparently hurdled was the one not accounted for in the graphic. Like, a guy 9 yards behind you when you've only got 6 yards to go is apparently more important than the guy who is going to meet you before the goalline.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:50 PM ^
I’ve seen this commercial a million times and agree with you. It has bothered me a bit as well. I’m wondering if they utilized general stats from that line of scrimmage position even though the majority of the time those defenders are fully surrounding the RB instead of trailing.
January 3rd, 2021 at 9:03 PM ^
Also in episode 2F09, when Itchy plays Scratchy's skeleton like a xylophone, he strikes the same rib in succession, yet he produces two clearly different tones. I mean, what are we to believe, that this is a magic xylophone or something?