(OT) The Commercialization of Outer Space: New investment market of Space Industry Stock
We live in a time that was undreamed just several decades ago where private equity is bearing the mantle of taking mankind to outer space. We have seen private companies supply government owned space stations, place satellites into orbit as well as begin the space tourism industry.
Governments are rapidly contracting their space efforts to for-profit entities and the number of companies being formed to compete for space business continues unabated. A close comparison to this in history would be the beginnings of European colonization and exploitation of the New World as well as commercial ventures of trading nations around the world.
Right now you can invest in stock of a large number of companies listed on various US exchanges and the space market is estimated to become a trillion dollar industry in 10-15 years which is a substantial growth rate.
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space
There was an interesting white paper commissioned by NASA for projections of how Space Commercialization may unfold and it is definitely worth scanning if this is of any interest to you.
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/commercial_space_technology_roadmap.pdf
Commercial applications include:
-Point to point delivery...faster and, in the future, potentially cheaper than air cargo of payloads to the opposite side of the planet
-Space based manufacturing...think 3D printing of items in outer space without the constraints of gravity or to manufacture orbital stations / lunar bases, etc or other manufacturing that would benefit from lack of gravity
-Space tourism
-Space mining / rare metals/ores/helium3/etc...lunair, asteroid, etc
-Space-based residential facilities...yes living in outer space
-List could go on and on
Dangers: Rapid evolution of technology will yield winners and losers where the losers die and become a memory...think early 1900s car producing companies, VHS/Beta, etc
Will this market grow enough for near term investing or is this a market better left to the young?
February 11th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
Solar storm knocks out 40 newly launched SpaceX satellites
I think I prefer that a business fund the repair of this kind event rather than a government that spends $600 on a single toilet.
February 11th, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^
I think the point of these starlinks is that they are disposable. So no repair. What does a $600 toilet got to do with fixing satelllites? You do realize that the investment that kept SpaceX afloat was NASA contract, right?
February 11th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
The OP makes a point about commercialization, which implies less reliance on NASA/Gov Funding. Our government does have a history of throwing too much money at a problem, thus the $600 toilet comment.
Edit: That said, I am a fan of NASA, the James Webb Telescope, et. al. outer space exploring stuff that increases our technology and understandings. I know all this comes at a tax payer cost.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:01 PM ^
I can say the exact same thing about private enterprise
February 12th, 2022 at 2:48 AM ^
If you are saying that private (non-governmental rather) investment in space exploration will be overall beneficial in bringing down the cost, I agree with you. I was nitpicking your individual statements.
I would like to see NASA invest in overall more meta "good for the humanity" type of stuff and leave the more mundane (still critical) cargo hauling to the SpaceX and Blue Origins of the world. One can dream, right?
February 11th, 2022 at 3:46 PM ^
This is a blessing in disguise actually...SpaceX will need to do some development of economical shielding for their satellite boxes. This is the kind of stuff that advances technologies and would lend itself towards human space travel as radiation shielding is a large obstacle right now.
February 11th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^
Totally agree - these satellites may be the equivalent of dial up modems from the turn of the century.
February 11th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^
To be accurate, the kerfuffle was about a “$600 toilet seat” in the P-3 which in reality was a fiberglass toilet shroud. These needed to be redesigned and reinforced because aircrew were stacking gear on top of it, notably golf bags. The last P-3 I was in had only a honey pot.
I wonder how much the toilet costs in the Dragon capsule?
inb4 “shitter’s full”
February 11th, 2022 at 10:15 PM ^
I got the poo on me...
February 11th, 2022 at 3:31 PM ^
So much of commercial space involves conning VC investors with some promise of future capability. How far in the future? Nobody knows. In many cases, mapping out the development lifecycle of capabilities is a practice is fiction writing. I see unfortunate similarities to the glut of "tech companies" which are started for the sole purpose of getting bought by a bigger fish, and consequently spend all their calories on promises instead of execution.
tl;dr investing in any particular commercial space company is essentially playing roulette even if the industry itself is expected to experience "growth."
February 11th, 2022 at 3:34 PM ^
It's definitely interesting to think about but at 43 I'm confident that just sticking with my index funds will help me beat the overwhelming majority of people trying to pick space stocks over the remainder of my lifetime.
February 11th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
At 56 I'm in your camp..tempting to buy some of these but with the way technology develops and obsoletes things it's almost a crapshoot.
February 11th, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
Speak of the devil...Space Industry startup Astra shows us why this sector is not for the weak of heart
February 11th, 2022 at 3:58 PM ^
"was carrying four miniature research satellites, or CubeSats, for NASA. Three of them were developed by public universities and one by the space agency itself."
I can't imagine busting your ass as a grad student on a project that depends on achieving orbit and then have this happen.
February 11th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
Been there. Drinking was done.
Only real "cure" is to work on multiple efforts and hope one of them makes it. Space is hard.
February 11th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
I'm old enough to have watched failure after failure of the early US rockets used in the space program, even before the Mercury program got started.
SpaceX has faced the same challenges, but one of Musk's smart decisions was to expect and learn from failures, and to be willing to get back up quickly with improved machines that addressed the prior problem. Gradual improvement rather than trying to make it perfect from the start.
February 12th, 2022 at 2:55 AM ^
Do you mean like NASA spent tax-payer dollars to learn about space exploration, SpaceX was re-learning what NASA knew using NASA's money?
February 11th, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
For those who are interested in real-world, sober, and highly informed articles and commentary about all things space related, I highly recommend this online publication:
https://www.thespacereview.com/
If you want to speculatively gamble with your investments and can afford to wait for plans to mature and/or crater, space technology is a good place. You might hit it big. You might not.
If you want a sure rate of return, I don't think it's a good place to invest unless you choose businesses that already have a guaranteed market in hand for at least the short term.
February 11th, 2022 at 9:35 PM ^
“Long after our own sun is burned to a cinder we will be out there in our stainless steel spaceships, by the millions and for centuries, searching out life and destroying it. We have a contract with God: He is using us to bring peace to the universe. We must go out there and one by one snuff out the stars.”
— Moritz Thomsen, ‘The Saddest Pleasure’
February 12th, 2022 at 12:32 AM ^
The sun is 4.6 B years old. It has enough hydrogen to last another 7 B years. Oh, I'm sure the Human race will find someway to destroy itself before the sun begins its red giant phase.
February 12th, 2022 at 12:21 AM ^
The moon is filled with rare earth minerals. It looks like China has plan to harvest these from the moon. https://www.voanews.com/a/science-health_china-joins-race-mine-moon-resources/6199085.html