In fairness that's all they can really afford.
He's not. I agree, we did not win this trade. Also remains to be seen about the Price trade, the big prospect they got has had very bad numbers in AAA thus far.
Unless you're one of the mescaline sniffing Tigers-fans who thought they had a chance to make the playoffs there's almost no way they could lose either trade.
There's a 0% chance they could have re-signed Price. And Frankly, their odds are better NOW to get Cespedes back than before. They had to trade both of them (and Soria, too). Unless you can prove they were offered and turned down a better prospect deal, they aboslutely won all three trades.
I didn't think they had a chance in hell of making the playoffs. I'm disappointed in the Cespedes haul (FanGraphs compared Fulmer to a future Joba Chamberlain) and, while we did get a top 20 prospect for Price, his numbers have not been impressive at all.
One rival exec calls RHP Michael Fulmer, going from #Mets to #Tigers, an “unbelievable get for a rental” (Cespedes).
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015
Cool. Scouting reports suggest he's likely to wind up as a back-end reliever, which would be a very good get if this were 2013, however since we desperately need starting pitching in addition to relief pitching I was hoping for a bit more for a great OFer, that's all.
with your assessment. the tigers traded 3 rentals for 6 prospects who all would grade in the tigers top 20, likely. 2-3 will provide pitching depth next year. 2 have a shot at top of the rotation guys in the near future. that's a lot of added depth for little $.
also, nearly $60M of payroll comes off the books for next year. plenty of $ to add a top end SP, OF and closer. cespedes may want to come back. these trades will make the tigers contenders again in 2016.
Contending again in 2016? That's VERY optimistic. Assuming we re-sign Cespedes, that still leaves our AL-worst pitching staff. Highly unlikely we re-sign Price, so assuming we get the next best thing (Greinke or Cueto), which is again very optimistic, and Norris/Fulmer comes in and takes a rotation spot, that would mean a marginal improvement in our starting rotation (which isn't much considering how bad they were even with Price). Then that leaves the constant thorn in our side, the bullpen.
are about 27th in the majors this year. i don't think it's crazy to think sanchez will improve on 4.60, Verlander on 4.80 and the #4 and #5 guys combining well over 5.00. norris and even lobstein would do better then that. that alone will mitigate the loss of price.
if the tigers sign a solid OF and front-end starter (both very likely with all the available cash), they will again be contenders. only the blue jays will have a better projected offense. plus they now have a few chips to trade.
and fulmer's stats at AA binghampton were better than all of the mets young studs when they were there; including degroom, sydegaard, matz, harvey, etc. he was a huge get for a rental.
In the case of the bullpen, I think regression is your friend. That bullpen was/is so inordinately bad that it's likely to improve based on a random roll of the dice rather than anyone being smart or good.
I'm not saying I think the bullpen will be "good" next year, and there's an argument to be made for loaded dice. But even still. That bullpen should at least rever to "slightly less horrible."
In the case of the bullpen, I think regression is your friend. That bullpen was/is so inordinately bad that it's likely to improve based on a random roll of the dice rather than anyone being smart or good.
I'm not saying I think the bullpen will be "good" next year, and there's an argument to be made for loaded dice. But even still. That bullpen should at least rever to "slightly less horrible."
It's worth noting that Cespedes was NOT eligible for a qualifying offer from the Tigers, meaning the Tigers literally got something for nothing. Without the qualifying offer, Cespedes is worth considarably less on the trade deadline market because the Tigers had no advantage in resigning him with a qualifying offer and would not have gotten a compensatory pick if Cespedes signed elsewhere. Fulmer is a GREAT get.
You can bitch about it all you want, but a former GM on the MLB Network crew said he is comparable to a young Matt Garza (not the current, who sucks) or Garrett Richards. That is a "win" for the Tigers all freaking day. To be honest, anyone that they ever use at the MLB makes this a win because they weren't going to win this year anyway.
He's a rental. You can't think about it as just trading a great outfielder. You're trading a guy for TWO MONTHS. You can't expect the world for that. Heck, Cespedes could be back here by April.
Dombrowski: “We must have had at least 20 conversations with Sandy Alderson today.” Mets didn’t want to part with Fulmer until today.
— Jason Beck (@beckjason) July 31, 2015
If you look at this trade in conjunction for the one that brought Cespedes to Detroit, the Tigers got Alex Wilson, Gabe Speier, Mike Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Rick Porcello and had the rights to Cespedes for half a season. Thats a huge get for a number 4/5 starter with a career WHIP of 1.35. If things fall into place and we are able to re-sign him next year, it will look even better.
I also have my doubts about the Price trade, especially when considering what we gave up to get him, what we got in return and that we probably would not have needed to trade for him in the first place if we kept Fister. I was one that wanted to give DD the benefit of the doubt on Fister, in retrospect that trade and the second/third order effects of that trade were very costly.
that Dombrowski screwed the pooch HARD on Fister. However outside of that move and the Renteria deal several years ago, he generally makes very good moves. I don't really blame him for the Verlander deal--I think that decision came at least partly from Illitch.
I think he screwed up bigger with the Simon trade than he did the Fister trade. Fister could be looking at TJ surgery soon, and DD wasn't patient enough with Robbie Ray. Simon has been an absolute fiasco since at least Memorial Day.
I couldn't agree with either of you more. My comment was not meant to be an indictment of DD as a GM. I was only trying to put the Price trade into a broader context. I think he comes out on the winning side more often than not. The fact that he is still the Detroit GM after Fister is evidence of how good he is. As for Simon, it doesn't take a student of the game to know that trading for an average to below average pitcher from the National League almost always ends in disaster. At least the propects we gave up for Simon were expendable. The same cannot be said for Price, which I contend was only on the table because of Fister. Even accounting for the fact that he was trying to deal Fister before the inevitable fall, since his loss, we have been chasing another consistent starter.
I'm not so sure that they were expendable. A solid middle-infielder prospect and a AA starting pitching prospect sure could have come in handy this past week.
I listen to MLB radio during the afternoon, for some damn reason. Jim Bowden apparently spoke with DD. DD tried to buy some pitching at the wire, but he was told by multiple GMs that he didn't have anything in the farm system that they wanted. They're not going to take your rusted LTD and give you a new Cadillac, even to rent. So 1) he couldn't buy, and 2) he sure as hell couldn't stand pat. That leaves you with what we have today.
Re: Simon. The only time in his career that he didn't get shelled as a starter was the first half of last season. The only way he's been effective in his career, 2014 exempted, is by coming out of the bullpen.
Crawford is 23 years old and still pitching single A. Suarez had value, but with Machado, Iglesias, Kinsler and Perez (at the time) the Tigers had a glut in the middle infield. I think trading for Simon was a mistake, but I don't think the effects of that trade are devastating.
And yes, our farm system was gutted. All 5 players we received in trades are top 15 guys with us now according to m.mlb. It was definately time to restock. Whether out of choice or lack of options, this was the right move.
Fair enough. I thought Crawford had gotten to AA before we sent him to Cincinnati.
Fister. He didn't screw the pooch hard on him. Fister was on a sharp decline and his velocity has decreased big time. He has not been pitching very well and would've contributed to the SP problem.
The problem is the return was meh at best and wasn't patient with Robbie Ray.
You are correct that the problem with the Fister trade was the return was meh at best, but that is why the trade is considered a bust by everyone in Detroit. I concede that trading him when his value was high was a good idea, but he didn't get that value in return. That is why the trade is so derided. The staff had a hard-on for Robbie Ray, overpaid for him and then traded him, with a 19 year old middle infielder (who is hitting the cover off the ball) for Shane Greene, who is not the answer right now either. I am not saying keeping Doug Fister was the only answer, but standing pat would have left us in a better position long and short term.
August 1st, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^
The thing is this: If DD could have gotten a better return, he would have. I don't understand the arguement "DOOD YOU NEED GET MORE."
Plus, there were some rumors that there were clubhouse issues with Fister. I'm not going to go into depth, because if what I've heard (from a Tigers employee) is true, it's a personal thing. However, if you listen to 97.1 there's a couple things that support this. First, at the time, they very strictly would not talk about it (makes sense) and would cut off callers. Second, now they kind of admit it by saying things like "I'm not sure there wasn't something more to the Fister trade that 'we don't know about.'".
The thing is this: I never said "Dude, you need to get more." What I said was the trade hurt us and standing pat may have been the better option. I was willing to let it play out and see what happened before I judged it, but in retrospect I feel it was a bad trade. You may disagree with me and that is fine, but I think we traded a quality starter that we needed for a couple of maybe decent prospects and a utility guy (yes I know this year has been subpar, but last year was good and that is when we needed him). It seems like we have been chasing our tails with starters since that happended. We traded the farm (figuratively, not literally) to rent Price for a year, we traded for Greene, we traded for Simon and now we are left with Sanchez, Verlander and what else? Krol coming out of the 'pen? I would take may chances with Fister and Smyley. Second, I don't understand the argument, "if he could have gotten more, he would have." The market for 6'8" righties who can throw 90 mph is not very liquid. There is no open market for these guys. That is why we debate it. That is why GMs get fired. DD has shown he can extract more that someone is worth on occassion, see my comment about Porcello. However, like I said above, it appears he was too passionate about Robbie Ray and that may have skewed his judgement.
I don't live in Detroit anymore and really don't listen to sports radio. But, if there was a lockerroom issue, it would explain an awful lot. However, justifying the trade because of lockerroom issues is tacitly acknowledging the trade was a bad one. (See York leaking rumors about Harbaugh dividing the lockerroom as justification for firing him.)
Finally, this could all become moot when Greene, Norris and Boyd are killing it next year and for years to come. I hope it does happen, and if it does, I will eat my crow and lemon with a big ol' grin.
I dunno, this is what DD does. Basically all he's been good at is robbing other teams in trades. I just don't think we did enough this trade deadline. I'll happily eat crow if Norris and Fulmer prove me wrong and become aces.
They don't have to become aces. If thery become solid 3 and 4 starters, it's fine. We are not winning this eason. And Illitch is not afraid to spend. So we could replace Cespedes' and Price's production with FA signings and trades in the offseason. It's the smart thing to do even if you don't get the highest possible value from each trade.
Hard to replace Price and Cespedes' production in the offseason with FA signings, considering Price and Cespedes are the two best players at their respective positions. I think Ilitch is slowing down on the spending, otherwise I think he would've shelled out the 200 million to keep Scherzer this year and make another serious run at a World Series.
Both are not out of the question in regards to bringing them back. And I think there's a greater chance of bringing them back if the players they got in return for their trades perform well than if we just flounder down the stretch and not add anyone through trades like we would have. DD and Co have been pretty good about evaluating young talent (both w/in the Tigers org and outside).
A few beat writers have suggested that Cueto could sign with the Tigers, and many believe Cespedes is likely to sign back with Detroit this winter. That is a pretty good replacement package if you add in what they got back in the two trades (assuming any of them perform at all).
Scherzer's contract was stupid. I would not have put that contract together. There's no way in hell I'm going to be on the hook for $105 million in deferred money after he's done with that contract.
did we unload with these moves?
Over $60M drops off the books for next year; price, cespedes, nathan, soria, davis, avila, simon.. assuming no cash was exchanged in these deals, illich even saves about $23M this year.
he could land some quality in this years FA market for sure.
Excited about the potential of Norris and Fulmer. I'm also glad the Tigers were sellers and we kept Hill/Machado/Jimenez. Our farm sytem would be destroyed if we traded any of them away to fight for a wild card spot. I actually feel better about this franchise than I have in months. Now we just need to suck the rest of the way (getting a top 10 pick wouldn't hurt) and make sure Ausmus is gone.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Tigers had no leverage. Cant make him a qualifying offer after the season and he's a UFA who is gonna walk.
Luckily, we have an owner that is willing to overpay (as seen by deals to Fielder and Sanchez) and there's no salary cap in baseball to reallly hurt a team for overpaying.
The luxury tax kicks in at $189 mil. There's already $105 mil on the board for Verlander-Sanchez-Cabrera-VMart-Kinsler.
EDIT: The LT rate for the Tigers would be 17.5% of every dollar over $189.
It's the "Detroit/Auburn Hills" tax that the Tigers, Lions and Pistons have to pay.
Luis Cessa article
http://www.pressconnects.com/story/sports/2015/06/13/bmets-cessa-changes/71192404/
The other guy, if its Jim Fuller, is a career minor leaguer
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t505&player_id=543188#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL