Orange Bowl Betting Guide

Submitted by MightyMatt13 on December 30th, 2021 at 11:24 PM

The line has settled at UGA -7.5, UM +240 outright. Some things I look into, would be curious to see your tea leaves too:

  • 66% of the public is on UM, which is down from 75% 2 weeks ago
  • 53% of the money is on UM. This is 13% differential to the raw bets is generally considered advantage UGA, ie the big money is leaning Dawgs. I always pay attention to late money movement a few hours before kick
  • UM 11-2 against the spread, UGA 8-5. Both teams are a coin flip on totals this season
  • o/u 45, with most books I see favoring the over. It opened at 43

I also look at Sagarin SoS rankings for reference during bowl season, and noticed quite a bit of change since the conference title games...

After Iowa, UM was ranked 31 right next to UGA, Alabama 7, and Cinci around 80. Currently UM is 22, UGA 39, Bama 16, and Cinci 77. We'll probably have the best SoS of the CFP tomorrow when Sparty and (hopefully) Wisconsin are baked in.

TLDR: ask your youngest cousin to pick a side and bet on that.

B-Nut-GoBlue

December 30th, 2021 at 11:44 PM ^

I'll gladly purchase another win as I did against Ohio St. Not big money but I think I laid 50 on Ohio St ML.  I might go 50 on Georgia by -2.5.  And once again gladly accept the loss.

/whatsmoneyanyway

Joined: 09/30/2011

MGoPoints: 43697

demardorsey

December 31st, 2021 at 1:23 AM ^

If you take Georgia and they win by 1-7 not only does your team lose the game but you lose your money as well so it’s a lose lose. Gambling isn’t just picking the winner of the game. They have spreads. You could bet Georgia on the money line but the you have to lay $312 to win $100. That’s not something I would advise unless you just have money you don’t care about. Putting up $3 to get $1 back isn’t a great return on your investment. 

Joined: 08/17/2018

MGoPoints: 1092

B-Nut-GoBlue

December 31st, 2021 at 1:31 AM ^

I was thinking taking Georgia at -2.5...I'd buy some points.  Now you're right I'd be boned if they squeaked by by only 1 or 2.  That would be weird but...it could happen.  It's really also not the greatest bet there either at -255, so a ML bet might just be the bet to make (a whole $12 profit). Again....I'd be good throwing away 50 at this point to get these boys to the play for a NC!  

Joined: 09/30/2011

MGoPoints: 43697

B-Nut-GoBlue

December 31st, 2021 at 1:41 AM ^

Definitely the rationale! Buddy keeps asking me if I bet Michigan.  Every week.  He doesn't listen; one of those types.  I told him no, I never bet my on my team.  That's bad voodoo for me.  I've never been a homer and always paranoid about a loss, even to the foes who aren't any good.  It's a principle.  Now I will be against them...and that's an emotional hedge.  Win money if things go poorly otherwise bask in the glory of victory.

(This is always chump change betting; the 50 on Ohio St weeks back was a big wager for me...and rare.  And woooorrrrrrth every penny).

Joined: 09/30/2011

MGoPoints: 43697

MightyMatt13

December 31st, 2021 at 12:33 AM ^

I get the public/money info from Action Network, Sagarin for the strength of schedule stuff obviously, and then I use a few different books for the lines themselves (MGM, Ceasars, Barstool). Action Network is worth a subscription if you're interested in this stuff, not so relevant for a CFP game but having one place that tells you every different books line is useful alone.

I'm not sure if anyone tracks public bet over time or SoS trends, I just happened to take some notes when the game was set up and then a couple weeks ago.

Joined: 02/26/2012

MGoPoints: 5791

GoBlue96

December 31st, 2021 at 12:42 AM ^

Thanks for the summary. 16-8 so far betting  on bowls but I don’t have a good feel for either playoff game yet. Leaving towards taking bama laying the points and I might just not bet on the Michigan game. 

Joined: 07/01/2008

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