Optimism From This Season's Positives
Here is my take on what has improved since the day before the season started:
1. We're no longer scared of MAC teams.
Offense
2. We now have a QB who can generally run the offense and should only get better.
3. Vince Smith is a potential competent starter at RB next season.
4. Roy Roundtree looks like he'll be better than any receiver we've had since Mario and Adrian left. Darryl Stonum is a legitimate big play threat as a kick returner.
5. The offensive line does not appear to be a liability, with Omameh already appearing to be a solid starter (and Barnum, Washington, and Lewan are potential contributors)
Defense
6. Mike Martin has emerged as a possible beast.
7. Craig Roh is ahead of schedule and when bulked up can be solid.
8. Will Campbell should be able to dominate eventually.
9. Linebacking play is piss-poor, but loses only Stevie Brown and can hopefully be upgraded by a better LB coach.
10. Secondary play is also piss-poor, but as Brian pointed out today, we'll have a crowded depth chart at CB, and someone (or more than one person) from that group will be able to switch over to safety and improve the position group.
Basically, I think we were 1-2 LB's and 2 Safeties away from being an 8 win team this year. If we can get that next season from returning players and freshmen, along with replacements for the scant departing seniors/juniors (no NFL yet for Warren, plz), there's no reason to think we can't win 8-9 games next year. That would have been a bad season under Lloyd Carr, but this is what a true transition feels like.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:56 PM ^
I am not buying into anymore paper tigers, I think we can be good, but I will believe it when I see it over a full season
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:58 PM ^
I hear ya. Fucking fake transitions, man.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:09 PM ^
I'm seeing less reason for optimism at the end of this year than I did last year. Last year towards the end we ran the ball well, especially against Northwestern, Minnesota, and Penn State. Even against Ohio State we were okay. This year in the second half of the season we were worse. The teams we beat up on early in the year like WMU and EMU turned out to be horrible. Between game 1 and game 12 I can't think of any progress that we saw and in retrospect the 2-win improvement over 2008 is more due to schedule than actually being a better team. The injury to Molk is no doubt a big factor, but it was so serious that he can't participate in spring ball then that doesn't make me feel good about next year. I am disappointed not in the overall performance of our QBs, but in the fact that they don't seemed to have progressed since the spring. Maybe it's going to take another off-season to see improvement, but there's no guarantee. Some QBs come in as talented freshmen and never get better. On defense, I'm expecting us to be just as bad.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:14 PM ^
in retrospect the 2-win improvement over 2008 is more due to schedule than actually being a better team.
Let me refer you to this post:
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/story-year-red-zone-inefficiency
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:11 PM ^
Some issues I have with your points:
3) I'd call Vincent Smith more than "potential competent starter". He played great in all action he saw this year (including the OSU game) and should be an upgrade to everyone except Minor. His only issue is size / durability.
4) Don't forget Junior Hemingway as a deep threat.
6) I'd like to see you call Martin a "possible beast" to his face. Kid is a beast.
7) Calling a kid who started every game as a true freshman "ahead of schedule" is downplaying him a little, no?
Blaming 1-2 losses on our LB and safety play is probably reasonable. I know you can throw the Purdue game in there for a fact, probably Iowa, and then Wisconsin if you needed a third. But don't forget that in losses to PSU, Illinois, and OSU, our offense scored a combined 33 points.
So in other words, even with a "fixed" defense, our offense needs to step up their game as well.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:27 PM ^
3. I thought Vince looked great, but he's so small, and he hasn't had to play a whole year. Plenty of players look great in short action, but are injury-prone or less effective in full-time use (look at Minor and Brown this year.)
4. I'm also encouraged by Hemingway, let's hope he stays healthy and continues to improve.
6. Martin is an absolute beast at times, but I'd love to see it even more often out of him, which I think we will next year. I think his play next year will really help defray the effects of BG going to the NFL.
7. Maybe I was downplaying Roh a little, but I didn't want my post to look like I was drinking the Kool-Aid completely. We are talking about a team that won 1 conference game this year, remember.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:12 PM ^
improvement in the Gold Zone. Will Mike Cox be ready to RAGE next year?
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:18 PM ^
This is the time of year, when we begin to see the positives moving towards next year. I like the rationale of your points, and too, hope for the best.
The one area I am most concerned(outside of the defense in general) is the O line. Let's not forget, we are replacing two starters, and although they may not be all Big ten, the backups are not proven. Sure, there is potential(you could argue their is potential Everywhere on the team), but this will take some time to grow.
Now, what excites me most, is that the honeymoon is over, and we can now actually see if Mich will get better. I mean, the schedule is eerily similar for next year(in the Big Ten) and it will be interesting to see if we actually can get to bowl eligibility. This year, I was hoping for the best, but next year, I actually expect 6-6 or 7-5. Mich must make a bowl next year, no questions asked.
Every week is going to be like the playoffs for RR. Should be entertaining
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:28 PM ^
towards the end of last year we had Minor Rage this year we had injured Rage. We actually threw the ball this year beside bubble screens. The offense put up more points. We have most of the team returning next year, no new D coordinator and terminology to learn, an experienced QB for the first time in RR tenure here.
Keep being a pessimist, but please don't jump on the bandwagon next year. Tate got hurt in game 4 and with an AC joint the only way to heal it is to rest. The Oline suffered tremendously when Molk went down, but it got some more guys experience. Omameh looks like he is going to be a good one and with Molk, Schilling, Huyge and a little help from some of the RS Freshmen and Sophomores the Oline should be solid.
The D returns 9 starters and Big Will and JT should be ready to be major contributors next year. Throw in a lot of RS freshmen who are already in the program and odds are you won't see walkons on the field yet alone starting.
If you can't find something to be excited about you're missing the boat. Lost to OSU by 11 giving them a defensive TD and missing a chip shot FG. Add in four other TOs and it's hard to win, but we were right in the game against a D that starts all JRs and SRs.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:57 PM ^
1. Good point about Minor, but next year we won't have any Rage. Smith is good but he's not a game breaker or a dominant back. I like Cox and Shaw too, but I'm not seeing an all Big Ten caliber guy here.
2. Here's the thing about the offense -- they did not put up more points in Big Ten play. It was basically the same as last year. This year we did not offensively outgain one single BCS opponent. Not Indiana, not Purdue, and not Illinois. Last year we did it three times. Out of all the dismal statistics from this year, that might be the worst.
3. Injuries factored in this year, but we'll undoubtedly have a few next year, like most teams do every year. I hope that we find out next year that the injuries to Molk and Forcier were huge factors. I really do.
4. It's hard to read anything into the OSU loss. OSU was playing an extreme version of Debord ball and the only times they playcalled aggressively on offense, they scored with ease. It wasn't a horrible loss but I have trouble seeing much positive from it either.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:09 PM ^
After giving me App State and the last two seasons, Michigan will be awesome again after I graduate. Thanks a lot!
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:13 PM ^
After you graduate, you will still be a Michigan Man, I'd hope. We watched the rebirth of Michigan football, my friend. If you're a fan for life, these three years will mean nothing. Keep faithful.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:18 PM ^
Usually, they remain Michigan men after graduation. But a few of them attack our academic integrity, or spread rumors to recruits about our head coach's health. Those kinds of people have forfeited their status as M-Men.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:22 PM ^
2 full seasons we will be starting an experienced QB in 2010.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:44 PM ^
I agree that the offense should come together and score many points with tiny guys flying all over the field.
The defense gives me no optimism. We got worse as this season went on and we might lose 3 of the top 4 defenders (Graham, Warren, Brown). I don't know the details on the size of our recruits, but we need Big Ten bodies rather than Big East.
We're still going to be replying on freshmen, red-shirt freshmen and sophmores next season. Hopefully, we aren't in the same place next year saying, "Our D was young and inexperienced...they'll be good next year".
In any event, I'll trade two losses if RR gets rid of his jock jams.