NFL punting declines
A New York Times article on punting in the NFL starts with this paragraph, before exploring historic trends of its decline.
"As a tactic for winning football games, punting makes little sense. Basketball teams don’t stop rebounding and offer the ball to the opponent if they miss a few jumpers. Baseball teams don’t reach an 0-2 count with two outs and declare: “Oh well, the odds are against us. You’re up!” Yet football coaches, those self-styled battle-hardened generals, have been meekly surrendering on fourth downs for decades."
January 21st, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
Didn't read the article but not all football series are created equally.
4th and 5 on you own 25 yard line is not a good place to go for it, you're just automatically giving up 3 pts and maybe 7 if you don't convert.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
The article didn't go into a lot of detail but they essentially agreed with that. Analytics and situation are what coaches should be using to determine whether or not going for it on fourth down is a good idea.
January 22nd, 2021 at 8:19 AM ^
Kirk Ferentz up in arms.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^
Inevitable following the retirement of Zoltan.
Seriously, those aren't great examples. Basketball teams foul on purpose. Baseball teams issue intentional walks. And in combat, a general will abandon terrain if it's indefensible (hence the expression "Live to fight another day.")
January 21st, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^
The first paragraph didn't intend to be evidence but to spark interest. (That's why I quoted it, cuz I thought it was fun.) The article itself covers the points being made, the evidence.
As I suggested in my brief description, the evidence covers the historic decline of punting in the NFL. It's gone down a lot. And the rise in offensive efficiency, which means a punt gives the other team a better chance to score than in olden times.
I posted this because Brian, et. al., has often complained about ancient auto-punt notions.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
Yeah, this is a good point. Their hypothetical scenario of a baseball team choosing to walk someone after going 0-2 would be like a football team choosing to punt from the opponent's 25 yard line. Nobody does that.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
Poor analogy when punting can greatly change field position which is what the game is all about.
January 21st, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
It's like taking two jabs in boxing or an extra lap in NASCAR... Spaghetti and Meat Ball? Is that a better analogy?
January 21st, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
Not sure what else is in that article, but that comparison to baseball and basketball is horrendous.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
Fewer punters?
January 21st, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
Honestly at this point with how high powered offenses are, as a blanket statement I would say once you are passed your own 40 if you have less than 5 yards, go for it. Teams get yards in chunks now. If they start on their own 20, they can very easily be in field goal range in 3 plays or less anyway. May as well give yourself more chances to score.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
There was a University of Cal, Berkley professor who wrote a paper that statistically proved that it is almost always better to go for it. Even on 4th down from your own five yard line.
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf
And of course there is that high school coach in Arkansas that goes for it on fourth down every time and tries and onside kick every time and he has won 4 or 5 state titles I believe.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-high-school-football-coach-who-never-punts/
January 21st, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^
Though the writer didn't refer to either of your bits of evidence, he was making exactly that point.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
I have countless Super Bowl victories in Madden and National Championships in NCAA that prove this point as well.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
The NYT analogy is terrible and a consequence of their decision to not have any sportswriters which, of course, also improves the overall quality of their sports articles. I agree with the premise, however. Punting is really a legacy of rugby - field position matters much more in that sport and punting to clear the ball happens hundreds of time per game.
One day a football coach will come along that goes for it on fourth down every time and that coach will have success and others will start doing it, too.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
Again, the writer intended the first paragraph to grab attention. The rest of the article makes the points you are, only adding details and analytics.
January 21st, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
I'd argue that football coach has already come along.
He got his first head coaching job in 1989 at a obscure D3 school near Ottumwa Iowa, and in only 8 years he had achieved enough that he got a shot in the SEC. Sure, the SEC school was a traditional football backwater, but his first SEC conference win ever wound up being against one of college football's most traditional powerhouses (Alabama). It was the backwater school's first win over Alabama in 75 years! He then continued that success in future years, and was known for going for it on 4th down in all kinds of situations. In an Outback Bowl game against PSU in 1998, for instance, his team punted 3 times in the game and went for it in 4th down 8 times.
(Watching that game, I found his strategy annoying! How dare he maximizing his opportunities when he has the ball! Why not just be like everyone else and punt it and give it back to us? Even at the time, I intuitively understood his strategy was correct - now I fundamentally understand his strategy was correct.)
He, unfortunately, also ran afoul of the NCAA at the same time - and he disappeared from the national scene almost as quickly as he arrived. He coached at New Mexico State for awhile (the ultimate backwater at the FBS level) in the mid-2000s, but that was really it after his SEC coaching gig.
That was Hal Mumme. I always wondered, if it weren't for the NCAA problems, just how further advanced college football would be today, as regards going for it on 4th down and having a more risk/reward-oriented philosophy. But he certainly DID have an influence and advance the game even as is. He didn't have a lot of direct descendants (really only Mike Leach), but he had other coaches paying attention, and a lot of them. Coaches from Bob Stoops to Urban Meyer to RichRod to Kliff Kingsbury and dozens of others incorporated aspects of his style in future years.
Mumme wasn't overly successful as a Head Coach. And it's probably not coincidental that he ran afoul of the NCAA: what a person incorporates into their football philosophy would likely also be part of their life philosophy. But, in terms of on-the-field innovation, IMO he has a case for being the most influential college coach in the last 25 years.
January 21st, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
IMO, there should be a passing game coordinator, a running game coordinator, and a 4th down strategy coordinator.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
The Madden kid.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^
Hmm, I must be watching the wrong team because I could've of sworn the Lions were punting at their normal record levels.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
I’m surprised a team with nothing to lose hasn’t tried that approach—greatly reduce punting. 4th and inches should be a no-brainer. 4th and short near midfield should be as well.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
Also, certain basketball teams absolutely have systems where rebounding is an afterthought. Worked out ok for JB at Michigan.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Yes, what you said. Sorry (not that sorry) that I didn’t read your post first before chiming in below.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Basketball teams don’t stop rebounding and offer the ball to the opponent if they miss a few jumpers.
Isn’t this exactly what Beilein did?
January 21st, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
He didn’t send multiple players to crash the offensive glass. He valued getting back in transition and not picking up stupid fouls.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
Right. He valued something over rebounds. He completely conceded on offensive boards. This is exactly what the OP quote says no basketball team ever does.
January 21st, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^
Also: Paging user NeverPunt.
January 21st, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
Baseball teams don’t reach an 0-2 count with two outs and declare: “Oh well, the odds are against us. You’re up!”
But baseball teams do routinely walk batters and let them get on 1st base to avoid a potentially worse outcome, the same way it is smart to sometimes punt.
With that said, offenses have improved dramatically over the years in football meaning it makes more sense to go for it on 4th down in more situations now.
January 21st, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
There is way more to lose having the ball in your end of the field vs rebounding a damn basketball
January 21st, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
Articles about punting have declined, as well.
January 22nd, 2021 at 7:00 AM ^
Paging Bryan MacKenzie and Internet Raj!
Punt/Counterpunt vs New York Times. I’d argue Bryan and Raj are not on the decline at all! ;)