NFL Draft Preview
I talked to some people around the league and my notes are below. If you have any specific questions, I can answer below.
Some quick Michigan notes. Ceasar is going to go early-- perhaps even in the 20's. We're looking at probably 7 Michigan players drafted with it potentially going to 9 players.
Also, OSU could have 3 former players go 1, 2, 3. That's what Michigan is going against.
Lions notes:
Derrick Brown: Don't be surprised if the Lions take him. That's all I'll say here.
CJ Henderson: There's a chance that he is the first CB off the board if the Lions don't take Okudah.
Below is a list of guys that aren't getting a ton of hype, but have a chance to be really dependable pros. These are guys to watch because they will go higher than "mock drafts" have them listed.
Rounds 1-3
Andrew Thomas: The highest character lineman, and has elite measurables. He's going to be a 10-year pro.
Clyde Edwards-Hellaire: Best RB in this draft. Scouts love this dude. I think he goes before Swift and others because he's so good in the passing game. I love J. Taylor as well, but there are some concerns with mileage on him.
Terrell Lewis: Injury concerns but one of the best pass rushers in this draft.
Noah Igbinoghene: Unreal athlete who is still learning position. As much upside as any CB in this draft.
Neville Gallimore: Awesome athlete who has sky-high potential. I think he's better than all the other DT's listed in that late 1/2 range.
Willie Gay: Michigan fans know about him, but he's going to be a stud sideline-to-sideline LB.
Cam Akers: Think he has a chance to be one of the best backs in this draft. Played behind a terrible OL and offense.
Tanner Muse: Will move from safety to a space linebacker. He's going to go way earlier than people expect.
Jalen Hurts: There may be a team that falls in love with him in the second round. He reminds me a lot of Dak. May not be the best passer, but is a leader and just wins. I think teams would rather take him and have him be a spot starter than to take a swing on a guy like Eason.
Rounds 4-7
Shane Lemeiux: Steady guard. Teams love him as a 10 year pro.
Josiah Scott: Purely a nickel, which teams are starting to value more.
Geno Stone: Stop me if you've heard this before. Iowa DB without elite testing numbers. He was awesome in the Michigan game.
James Proche: Killed Michigan a few years ago. He's going to be a stud in the slot if he goes to the right team.
All-Hype Team:
Grant Delpit: Been hyped as a top 10 pick but plays like a 4th rounder. He's going to the best player available on ESPN's board for a while, I think.
Tristan Wirfs: Elite testing numbers, but he's not a tackle. He got EXPOSED in the Michigan game. His tape was awful in that game. So he has to be a guard and there's not a lot of value here. Scouts think he has a huge bust rate.
Javon Kinlaw: Looks like Tarzan. Absolute unit. But he's a real project at DT. I don't think he's as good as people think he is. Pad level is meh and that's really hard to get a guy to change at this point.
April 22nd, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
I really hope the lions trade down. They need as many picks as possible and they can get Derrick Brown further down in the first round. There’s a possibility of Lions trading down with Jags and taking Yannick Ngakoue from them which would be great too.
Would love that trade. Could either take Henderson or Brown at better spot value-wise in addition to Ngakoue, get a guard with the 2nd round pick and the rest of the draft is gravy. Lions would instantly be so much better. The cryptic nature of the OP's comment on Brown I took to mean they may have a trade down in the works already. Looking long term I could see the Lions wanting to take Brown intsead of Okudah because they probably won't want to pay Okudah when his next contract comes around and will end up losing him. Brown they could keep around for a longer time with DT contracts being much more affordable outside of the elite elite guys. As long as they trade back and still get one All-pro or close to it guy I'm happy. If they don't trade down the whole draft is a failure in my eyes.
I hope they aren't making the decision not to draft someone because they are worried six years from now going have pay them little more. Even if they did that would mean Okudah give them extreme value on his rookie deal.
Agreed don't trade down then they failed. It's really that simple imo. They'll likely never be in better position than they are here with a top 3 pick and no real need for a QB. That's the dream scenario for NFL team in the draft
Lions must trade down imo, if not it's a collosal failure to blow this perfect opportunity. Not a big enough difference in Brown, Simmons, Okudah to justify taking one over the other plus an extra draft pick or more. Teams pay out the nose for top 10 picks to draft QBs. This is a deep draft. They should walk away with minimum of 5 picks in first three rounds plus one of those above players.
That jags trade would be awful imo. That guy isn't a big enough asset to be giving up that kind of draft position considering his he needs a new contract and he's going be making a ton of money going forward. Need someone who is on a rookie deal next few years close to his level to drop back like that from number 3 spot. His new contract sucks lots of his value out. Maybe trade a later pick be okay.
April 22nd, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
*Sprays anti-NFL zealot repellent all over this thread.*
OSU doesn't get to claim Burrow. He was shit until Joe Brady showed up.
I also can't wait for Okudah and his square buckeye forehead to get lit up by Davante Adams in the NFC north. Go Pack Go.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
He was pretty good before Brady. Remember Harbaugh was in love with him and wanted him bad when he was recruiting him. But I can promise you that OSU is using him in their pitches to QB recruits....
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
That would be stupid of OSU. Burrow never really played at OSU and they have other QBs to point at that better fit their current scheme (Fields, Barrett, Miller)
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
While I think OSU had very little to do with Burrow becoming the #2 pick, I don't think it is stupid of them to market themselves like they did. Frankly, it is perfect and fits the 2020 way of the world - tout yourself for anything positive whether you contributed or not and use misdirection for anything negative to avoid taking responsibility. In this case they can talk about going 1-2-3 including the best QB...without having to acknowledge that their system hasn't produced a viable NFL QB.
Joe B. was neck and neck with Haskins to start the 18' season, he was perhaps slightly behind due to the hand injury he suffered the previous year, but he was no slouch. Moreover, he's been extremely complimentative of his time and development at OSU... watch his Heisman speech. It took LSU bringing in a competent coordinator to show his talent, and he didn't disappoint.
Solid point about the system not producing regular NFL caliber QB's, that's unarguable. Have you already written off Haskins as being a viable NFL QB though?
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
Burrow was decent before Joe Brady but he really stepped up his senior year. That accuracy was ridiculous. That being said, he’s not going to have the same OL at cincy, nor is he going to have the same kind of weapons to throw to. If Cincy has a plan to help him out, then they should be good in a couple years. But the first year is going to be a crapshoot.
I don't look at it as OSU getting to "claim" anything regarding Burrow. I look at it as OSU has so much more fucking talent on their roster that their backup QB is good enough to transfer somewhere else and have an all-time season and be the #1 pick in the draft. That's why I think it's relevant to this discussion, and quite depressing.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Good info. I'm curious your take on the Wirfs vs. Uche clips from the other day. From my viewpoint, he did very well against Uche. I remember him struggling against Winovich the year before, but thought he had a solid year this year. (I am NOT sold on Epenesa as a prospect though....and thus expect the Lions to grab him.)
I'm going to be interesting in how Chase Young pans out too. At times he looked better than Clowney ever looked. Then I saw him vanish for stretches too. The fact that Runyan did well against him makes me wonder...even though I know DE is a position where you lose more than you win.
As for the Lions, the dream scenario is that they can trade down a few picks and still get Brown or Okuda.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
I’m guessing CY was taking plays off. When he tried, he was dominant. He did, curiously, disappear after his suspension. He would have been better off just pulling a Bosa and just declaring. He should be fine though.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
Every single elite DE not named Bosa over the past few years has had motor concerns. Myles Garrett, Clowney, Dante Fowler, etc. I think Young is elite enough to overcome those issues.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
This is nonsense.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
Same thoughts on Wirfs v Uche. Two different people I follow on Twitter (sorry cant remember which ones right now) used that game tape to talk about how WELL Wirfs did against him.
One man's trash, another man's treasure.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^
Think you can chalk that up to how different teams evaluate OL. Some teams want guys that maul DL and not stalemate them. I saw a ton of clips of him pulling in space and literally not ID'ing and blocking anyone.
He's a classic moves well but doesn't dominate type of player. I'm not saying he's a bad player, but him getting drafted in the top 5 is a mistake. Who cares if he runs a 4.7 if when he pulls he can't lock on to anyone.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^
Going to be so depressing when the Lions take Brown at 3. Questionable interior pass rusher who could profile as simply a run plugger, who could be had in the 6-10 range. Woof.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:31 AM ^
Lions have the worst DT group right now. I'd be perfectly fine with Brown at 3. He gives you solid production and Pro Bowl potential for 5 years at a clear position of need. Okudah would be fine too. They're the only two guys that should be taken that high if Chase is gone.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
I agree - I think both guys will be productive NFL players and both play a position that the Lions are desperate for. The tough thing for the Lions is that the few guys who might be "generational" players will go #1 and #2 and then otherwise play positions that aren't a need that high (OL). Even if the Lions get this draft "right" they will still probably be criticized for taking guys that would be fine as 6-10 at #3. What we'll never know is whether they could have traded down or not.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
So what I've heard is that Quinn is a little too safe. He's not going to take a big swing. So I think him taking Brown is more a function of he's definitely not going to bust. He may not be a star, but he'll be a really solid player for a while. Okudah may be a little bit more of a risk simply because he's a CB. I don't agree with his logic, but that's what I've heard on him.
If that's true, then the Lions should absolutely trade back with the Dolphins or Chargers and pick up another top 50 pick.
If they are happy with Brown or Okuduh at either 5 or 6, might as well get the additional top 50 pick at no charge. With Tua on the board still at 3, the Lions would be absolutely foolish not to trade back.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
Lol CEH is not the best back in this draft. He's 5'7 with 4.6, 4.7 speed in the 40
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^
Saw a mock the other day with Dobbins going to Baltimore in the second. Depressingly enough that would be a great spot for him. Closest thing to the OSU system in the league.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:08 PM ^
There are a lot of teams that would disagree with you on that one :P If you look at his tape and see that speed as an issue let me know. He's a stud.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
My ideal draft... Trade with MIA ---- get Okudah/Simmons/Brown (5th) and Ceasar (mid-20s) in 1st round.
Won't happen and will probably just get Okudah with 3rd pick.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^
Not just OP here, but elsewhere, there's been so much Derrick Brown talk that I'll be fine with getting Okudah at 3. Much prefer a trade down like you outlined. Brown at 3 is worst case scenario IMO.
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
You'll have to pay some heavy vig (-350 on Bovada ) but if you're betting, I suggest hammering the prop of Big 12 players having more first round picks than the ACC than the Pac 12.
For fun , I put a little coin on the draft getting hacked (16-1 odds). Probably may happen to the Lions
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
Is there a prop bet on WR's drafted > QB's in the first round? Because I think that will hit for sure.
I don't see any for that on Bovada when I just searched, which is surprising because there's 177 props up. There may be that prop on other betting sits, though. I know betonline and 5dimes have a ton of props up also.
If there is it'll be about 1.2-1 odds lmao everyone expects that
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:38 AM ^
Trade down and acquire picks. I'm not a hater of Okudha, but he's not that far ahead of other DB's out there. I'm interested in the possible trade with Jacksonville where Detroit swamp #3 for Jacksonville's #9 and Detroit picks ups Ngakoue. Use that #9 for a DB or OL.
Quinn is probably in the best position in this draft where he can make the greatest impact on his current roster. Somehow he'll screw this up, refuse to trade down, and snags Brown.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
I agree, but. in order to trade down, you need to find a partner. So far Miami is not going to make a move. So it's up to the Chargers. I don't think Quinn wants to move out of the Okudah/Brown/Simmons range.
Atlanta is the team I see trading up. They need a CB in the worst way. What they have to offer though is it enough?
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
regardless, if the Lions draft someone, they'll turn to shit.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^
You want to look at something really funny... check out the Lions' 2nd round pick history. It might be the worst in history. There's been like 2 players in the 2nd round in the last 20 years that have really hit: Slay and Shaun Rogers. Absolutely insane.
April 22nd, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
"Also, OSU could have 3 former players go 1, 2, 3. That's what Michigan is going against."
That's technically a true statement, but its hard for OSU to really lay claim or take credit for any of Joe Burrow's success, or use Burrow against Michigan in a recruiting pitch. Burrow couldn't beat out JT Barrett or Dwayne Haskins on the depth chart when he was there so its very likely that had he stayed at OSU, he would not be going to the NFL right now. Much less be a #1 overall pick.
Don't get me wrong: the kid proved that in the right system, he is an elite QB. But his successes are not OSU's successes. OSU didn't do shit to make him what he is now.
Burrow got to where he is today because of Joe Brady.
you could argue that all day long but they clearly use that to their advantage. Who can Jim point to? or is he still using Andrew Luck? If I'm not mistaken, is Chad Henne the last UM QB to go pro and have any semblance of success?
9 wolverines? Love to see who those are.
Not only Ohio State may have top 3 picks but I'd say it is 50-50 Michigan has 3 guys off the board after 3rd round. Granted this is a weaker than normal class of wolverines than past few years
Ruiz, Uche, DPJ, Bredeson, Onewenu, Runyan, McKeon, Hudson, Hill, and Shea. Not saying all will go but that's the order they would be drafted in.
Ill take bredeson over dpj
Been thinking for a while (since it became common knowledge that the Lions want either Okudah or Brown and are sticking with Stafford) that the Lions should draft Tua out of the blue, then demand a king's ransom for him in a trade when Miami or the Chargers only have 20 minutes to decide. Put a little panic in them and we may be able to really get a lot for him. Someone will take the trade even if it's not one of those two.
I've been saying that for the longest time too, but most argue that Detroit selecting Tua at #3 only to use him as trade bait actually lowers the value to get him. Because if teams call the Lions bluff and opt for Herbert, Love, Hurts, etc. Detroit is left with the tails between their leg (pun not intended)
QB Steven Montez (Colorado) and WR Jauan Jennings (Tennessee) are two players I like later in the draft.
Very curious to see where Peoples-Jones lands, as well. Think he has a chance to light it up in the NFL.