Most Overrated/Underrated teams in ESPNs FPI (according to 247)
Most people agree that ESPN's FPI leaves plenty to be desired, but it is still fun to read a decent speculative piece on a Tuesday in May.
Notable underrated teams: Michigan @ #11, Wisconsin @ #12
Notable overrated teams: ND @ #5, PSU @ # 8, MSU @ #10
Which B1G team do you expect to outperform their ranking? Which team do you expect to underperform their ranking?
https://247sports.com/ContentGallery/10-overrated-underrated-teams-in-E…
Wiscy brings back a slew of all conference performers. They return a good QB, RB, and great offensive line. They have that staple of LBs again (Edwards & Dooley were good last year). They should be pretty much the same as the past 2-3 years. Outside of UM & PSU who do they play? Their next most difficult game is against Iowa. They don't play MSU or OSU. I think they have a pretty clear path to the B1G championship game and a 10 win season. That seems good enough for #12.
I'm glad we get them at home. I think they are better than MSU & PSU. I would peg them as tied for 2nd (with UM) behind OSU in terms of returning talent and likely outcome for the B1G.
Wisconsin on paper and with a lot of experience looks like the most complete team in the Big Ten, actually. And they only have really one tough road game against us.
The author is the one who described those teams as either under or over rated. There is a decent paragraph for each team that he picks to discuss.
My opinion is that Michigan is indeed underrated. I am basing that upon the disappointing season that we had in 2017 (recency bias) and Harbaugh fatigue that the national media started to develop (media bias). No one will argue that our defense is not nationally elite. We have added a known commodity at quarterback and return a tremendous amount of talent around him. We have a head coach who has won big at every level that he has coached. We hired a very proven commodity as our offensive line coach. I understand the ‘show me’ crowd and the ‘call me when we win a big game’ crowd, but I am putting my emotions aside and telling you that my logical opinion is that Michigan will be an elite team this year. (just note that my logical opinions are wrong far too often for my liking)
But dat schedule doh
I don't know of anyone that thinks Michigan was just a bad team. Pretty much everyone knows the defense is elite and the offense is complete dogshit. That was pretty clear whether you watched all the games intently or just caught highlights.
And the prove it mindset is warrented. Adding Shea and a new OC and OL coach might lead to things being a step up from dogshit, but no one is going to award any sort of credit for it.
Mark my words the offense this year will be comfortably above-average. Patterson will be at least very good, if not great, which automatically brings every facet of the offense up significantly. Interior OL should be really good. Same with RB and tight ends. Receivers will have to show it but the talent is there. The only real question is what we get out of left tackle. And also I believe Jim Freakin' Harbaugh is going to come out swinging this year with some tremendous game planning and preparation. He is obviously on a mission and feels embarrassed by what happened last season. This is the year Harbaugh quiets those who love to criticize him.
It would be greatly satisfying to beat OSU and MSU on the road in front of their fans. It's about time we beat OSU at OSU.
Playing at MSU and at OSU is not much tougher thna playing them in Ann Arbor. Rivalry game factor (or whatever) results in less home field advantage than normal for OSU and MSU when Michigan plays them in Columbus and E.L. (Not counting officating, just the stadium atmosphere, etc.)
But playing Penn State at night on the road is a tough road game atmosphere, sort of like when Michigan goes to play at Iowa at night.
We played the bascially the same schedule in conference in 2016 and only lost to osu. MSU and UW will probably be as good as they were that year while PSU should be better. Osu likely won't be better than they were that year and could be slightly worse since their QB is mostly an unknown.
they'll be A LOT better. PSU was also decimated with injuries so very reasonable to think they'll be better.
And OSU wasn't that good in 2016. At least not at the end of the year. They barely beat a bad MSU team, shouldn't have beat M and then got destroyed by Clemson. They could easily be better than that team this year.
This is projected to be the most difficult schedule in the country for good reason.
Pretty much everything you listed is based on track record, but you also accuse a recency bias. Which, sure...ignore all of the recent results with the people you listed, and lets just focus on the times in their past when it all worked out. There is almost no logic in anything you listed, and its pretty much entirely emotion based. "These are the recent results, but I'm going to ignore those because I feel..."
Michigan ranked at No. 12 feels dead on accurate to me.
MSU has a weak non conf schedule, gets Mich, OSU, and NW at home, and avoids Wisc and Iowa in the crossover. They very well could be #10 by years end.
I don't think that's a very tall task.
I'd almost forgotten about that. Going to be one of my favorite sideshows of the season. A whole new fun side of #Pac12AfterDark
MSU always seems to play to their competition, win or lose. Besides the 3 in-divsion games, Purdue and @ Nebraska will be tough for them.
I'd actually put my money on Nebraska right now. Away game, late in the season so Frost will have his team more familiar with his offense, and MSU has to play OSU the week before while Nebraska gets a tune-up game against Illinois.
I also think that Nebraska game will be tricky for MSU, for many reasons. First, it's in Nebraska. Second, in Frost's first year, Nebraska should be significantly better in November than in September, barring any catastrophic injuries. Third, it's after MSU plays their stretch of Indiana, CMU, Northwestern, PSU, Michigan, Purdue, Maryland, OSU. MSU went 4-2 against those eight teams last year (didn't play CMU or Purdue), but their four wins were by an average of 6 points. MSU was basically 5 for 6 on coin flips last year, and Indiana and Maryland have both beaten MSU in the last two years. It's certainly possible that MSU goes 6-2 over that eight game stretch, but it's also certainly possible that they go 5-3 or 4-4 or 3-5. All of these games will be close. Finally, MSU is very thin at a few positions (RB, DE, LB for certain). Any injuries at those positions, or general wear and tear of the season, by the time they go to Lincoln could make that game a lot more even on paper.
Agree with everything you posted. I also think they're going to overwork Lewerke as a runner because of the RB depth, and there's a strong possibility he gets injured by that point in the season. Especially right after OSU's DL
That'd certainly be unfortunate for them. They like Connor Heyward (Scott's backup), but he's unproven and obviously young. Their running game was also atrocious last year. They will certainly have to get creative to move the ball on the ground with any consitency. Teams with good front sevens should be able to force the pass without loading the box.
Agree entirely, and one-score contests doesn't even include Maryland, who they could only beat by 10 despite MD playing with their 5th QB. MD returns most everyone on offense and is unlikely to have such horrible injury luck again. They will look much more like the 2016 Maryland that beat MSU.
I'm probably not thinking clearly because for even more obvious reasons than usual I want State to have a shitty season (please, please, please) but I think they are overrated. They are a .500 team without Lewerke, and I don't think he is going to sneak up on anyone this year. Teams will really scheme against him, and if he keeps running off with the ball that much he will eventually take some big hits. Running quarterbacks are a significant risk and State has absolutely no one behind Lewerke.
Obviously I agree that we are underrated at 11. Wisconsin isn’t THAT underrated at 12 - I think they’re 10-2 or 9-3 this year and I really think Purdue is going to push for that division. I don’t see Wisconsin winning more than 2 games from Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, and Iowa.
I’d say that the most underrated team, in addition to Michigan, is Purdue. I think they have a very real chance to get to 9 wins and win the West this year. That would probably require 2 significant upsets, certainly at least 1 (I reeeeeally like them against MSU - they match up well with what MSU does on D and they play after MSU plays PSU and us), but it’s very possible. I love Brohm, they return most of their offense including their QB, and I think they’ll take another jump in year 2 there.
Notre Dame is 5th?
Like that almost every pre-season. Let's face it ND hype sells magazines and gets clicks.
Wisconsin might be the best team in the B1G. Ohio State is loaded with talent (as always) but the Badgers have depth and experience pretty much everywhere. I believe that Wisconsin at home is as much of a challenge as Ohio State on the road this year.
MSU is overrated despite bringing back a strong team, and it's not just because of schedule. They overachieved last year and won't repeat that feat in an even stronger conference. Luck won't continue to roll their way, and they play better as underdogs, which they won't be this year.
Michigan might be slightly underrated, but I don't see how you can look at our schedule and rank us higher than #10. If we make the CFP this year, it would be one of the best seasons in CFB history.
ND and PSU are overrated for the reasons described in the article. PSU will miss Moorhead and Barkley and get bludgeonded by the brutal East, while ND lost a great coach as well (Ecko) and have their typically tough schedule.
If you're an oddsmaker, it's hard to see the B1G as anything other than an Ohio State vs. Wisconsin rematch. Sure, Michigan could put the pieces together and disrupt that scenario, but the rest of the conference will suffer from better competition coming from Nebraska and Purdue. The B1G continues its ascendancy this season and will, once again, be the best conference in CFB.
Everyone says MSU overachieved last year, but who exactly did they beat that they weren't supposed to? Penn State and us? We were entirely average, and Penn State was good but they weren't exactly world beaters. Penn State only beat Iowa by 2 and Nebraska by 8. Sure they beat up on non-confernece and Big Ten bottom feeders, but two close games to bad teams and two losses. They were probably closer talent wise to MSU than OSU (and I think there obviously was a big talent gap between MSU and OSU).
I don't know if MSU is a top 10 team, but I don't quite understand everyone saying they overachieved.
The overachievment comes from winning the Michigan and PSU games. Both games involved a significant rainstorm that hurt the offenses. During the game in Michigan's case, and with a very long delay against PSU. Yes, MSU played in the same conditions, but they weren't as dynamic or talented as either UM or PSU, so stunting the offenses had a large impact in both games - in favor of MSU. And still they needed 5 turnovers to beat Michigan, and some lick against PSU.
They were a solid team, and will be again this year. But they had a fair amount of good luck go thier way last season. You generally make your own luck, so it might happen again this year. I just don't think it will.
What they did/do have is a mobile/escapable QB that managed to cover for an OL nearly as bad as M’s last year. I still believe that if you swapped Lewerke for JOK/RS Frosh Peters, MSU is much closer to 0.500 and M is pushing 11-12 wins last year.
Did you already forget 3-9 in 2016?
And the reality is that 2018 MSU team is not really going to be near the level of the two or three best teams they have had since Dantoni arrived.
If they end the year in the top 10 it will be due to some some combo of their favorable schedule and lots of luck (which they had plenty of in 2017).
I don't think that's arguable. Most predictions had them in the 6-6 range (see Bill Connelly's 2017 preview, attached ... he had their predicted wins at 5.72).
If you had told someone 365 days ago that MSU would go 2-1 in their 3 games (1) at OSU, (2) at Michigan, and (3) vs PSU --- you would have gotten some very long odds at that.
PSU finished the season in the AP Top 10 - and finished as high as #4 in S&P+. The PSU win was a legit good win for MSU. (S&P+ also had a significantly larger gap between PSU/MSU then between PSU/OSU .... take that FWIW).
MSU's home loss to Notre Dame wasn't a surprise.
And they won nearly all of their "50-50/toss-up" type games. 365 days ago, you could have made a case that all of (1) vs Iowa, (2) at Minnesota, (3) vs Indiana, (4) at Northwestern, and (5) vs Maryland were "50-50/toss-up" games. They went 4-1 against those 5 - with the one loss in OT.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/6/23/15815800/michigan-s…
I think MSU has basically been a 6-6 team for two years in a row now and simply had bad luck in 2016 and good luck in 2017. Not coincidentally, they're 12-12 over those two regular seasons. Typical Dantonio teams where their records are hardly indicative of the team they field.
and their program kicked off a bunch of should-be contributors. Going into the season, a bowl appearance seemed like it would have been a great result.
They absolutely overacheived compared to preseason expectations.
We were better than an "average" team, if you're considering all of FBS, so for them to beat an 8-4 team on the road was very much overacheivement. You point out the close wins for PSU, but they also gave OSU everything they could handle, destroyed M, and beat a good opponent in a NY6 game. PSU was good. Beating them was very much an overacheivement for MSU. And the mere fact that they didn't lose to anyone that was even mediocre (Iowa, Minnesota, WSU) deserves some recognition considering they weren't supposed to that good.
Lewerke was pretty good in 2017.
Not saying he is an outstanding college QB or that he is All Big Ten material. But he was pretty good for MSU in most games. In comparison in 2016 MSU had real problems at the QB position and they ended 3-9.
Just shows how good (even if not great) QB play is huge.
Who is worked up?