In the Midst of this Harbaugh Crud-storm, Let's talk Lions for a Minute
Mates,
We grieve the loss of our coach to the NFL but as others have said, we wish him well and, Lord willing, onward and upward for our team.
However, there is at least some good news in the kingdom. The Lions, that is, the Detroit Lions are playing for the NFC Championship in SF on Sunday. They have surprised a bunch of folks and won two playoff games this year, matching the total playoff wins for the last 60+ years. They are 7 pt dogs to the 49'ers. The 49'ers have looked alternately great and a bit vulnerable. I note that they lost to the Rams at home 21-20, last game of the regular season, and quite frankly got at least a little lucky to be Green Bay on Sunday.
The 49ers lost Deebo Samuels on Sunday, too, but assumedly he'll be good to go for the Lions. Apparently he is a big piece of the offense.
Two questions:
1. Do the Lions beat the 49ers, and if not, do they at least cover the 7 pt spread?
2. Against the Bucs we were 6.5 pt favorites and the money line was something like +220/-280. For the 49ers who are 7 pt favorites, the money line is +280/-340. Does that mean that Vegas is more certain of the win by the 49ers than they were for the Lions beating Tampa Bay?
Forward down the field,
A charging team that will not yield.
And when the Blue and Silver wave,
Stand and cheer the brave.
Rah, Rah, Rah.
Go hard, win the game.
With honor you will keep your fame.
Down the field and gain,
A Lion victory!
XM
January 24th, 2024 at 8:56 PM ^
41-10
January 24th, 2024 at 9:01 PM ^
for whom....?
January 25th, 2024 at 1:18 PM ^
He's being an asshat and referencing the score from the last NFC championship game the Lions played in, losing to Washington.
January 24th, 2024 at 8:56 PM ^
Go lions.
January 24th, 2024 at 8:59 PM ^
I wouldn't put too much stock into the Niners-Rams game in week 18 - neither team played their starting QBs in an otherwise meaningless game (both teams had clinched playoff spots/seeding).
January 24th, 2024 at 9:03 PM ^
Yes. That 7 pt line is a gimme if Deebo is out or severely limited. I haven't gambled big money in years, but I might tomorrow morning.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:05 PM ^
I'm hoping the Niners will fulfill Spiderman Allen's prophecy and bite the dust for the first Super Bowl in franchise history.
January 24th, 2024 at 10:48 PM ^
That was a frustrating season.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:05 PM ^
7 points is too high. It's that because our D gets the yips sometimes, but I think we win. Gibbs with his biggest game yet.
January 24th, 2024 at 10:08 PM ^
4 out of the last 5 games included us facing Jefferson, the Rams group of receivers, and Mike Evans. Minus Deebo, the 49ers are a clear step down against our weak spot (secondary)
And if we get to the Super Bowl, neither KC's nor the Ravens have a scary group of receivers.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:07 PM ^
I am not expecting a win, but I certainly think it's possible. I really wish Green Bay would have pulled off the upset to give us the home game.
I think the Niners barely beating Green Bay was a fluke due to rust and Purdy not having the hand size to play well in the rainy conditions. So I expect the 49ers (especially Purdy) to play better.
But on the other hand, our offensive line and aggressive (and motivational) coach give us a chance.
I am debating whether or not to meet some friends in Vegas if they win. (not to attend the SB live, but to just party and watch the game on TV)
January 24th, 2024 at 9:09 PM ^
Our offensive line is only good when all of them are healthy. We're without Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow is 50% at best. 49ers defense will tear that apart.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:29 PM ^
I know... I wouldn't expect to win
January 24th, 2024 at 10:47 PM ^
As long as Colby Sorsdal isn't on the field I think our OL has a shot. We've had I believe 8 different starting lineups along the OL this season so we're used to dealing with adversity there. By a wide margin the worst offensive games we've had this season from an EPA basis have been the ones where Sorsdal - rookie 5th round draft choice - had to start.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:10 PM ^
portland to vegas, cheap flight. fun weekend. could end up with tickets just because sometimes those things happen.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:34 PM ^
truth be told... Vegas is not my kind of city
but it's an easy city to travel to and would be a lot of fun as to watch as a Lions fan
been waiting for this my whole life.... but I will admit, I lost a lot of my fandom during the Suh years with all his cheap shots. I love this current team though. Great distraction from the Harbaugh saga.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:47 PM ^
vegas is most definitely not my city, but for a super bowl that might be the exception.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:10 PM ^
I don't have high hopes with the injuries to the OL and the defense being what it is, but there's always a chance in playoff football. Go Lions!
January 24th, 2024 at 9:17 PM ^
LaPorta listed as out, that's a big hit for the boys in Honolulu Blue.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:53 PM ^
Yeah, no he’s not.
Although he didn’t practice today, given the need to rest his knee from the injury in Week 18, he has not been designated as “out”. Also coaches wouldn’t make this designation until Friday at the earliest and would mark him as “questionable” at the most. Not sure where you’re getting your intel from but it’s incorrect.
From today’s injury updates on the Pride of Detroit blog:
LaPorta had been battling through his knee injury the last two games and was noticeably more comfortable last Sunday against the Bucs, as opposed to the week prior against the Rams. Expectations are that the Lions take it slow with him in practice this week so he is good to go on Sunday.
January 25th, 2024 at 9:16 AM ^
I saw that same thing and took it to mean he was out of practice. A game time ruling wouldn't have come yet.
January 25th, 2024 at 9:44 AM ^
If that was the case, why would being held out of practice as an injured player be such a big blow to the team?
Checking facts, yada yada yada.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:26 PM ^
SF because it's home
Don't know what any of your second question means and don't care too.
This Dolphins fan is jealous that the Lions are a better organization than the Dolphins right now.
January 25th, 2024 at 1:26 PM ^
"Sources" (AKA my nephew who hangs out in sordid Lions-oriented corners of the Internet) tell me the crowd is expected to be roughly 25% Detroit fans. Notoriously loud Detroit fans.
Frisco fans are spoiled and I don't expect the same level of enthusiasm from that bunch.
January 24th, 2024 at 9:36 PM ^
won two playoff games this year, matching the total playoff wins for the last 60+ years.
As someone who hasn't followed the NFL in decades, and never the Lions, I knew they were a historically bad franchise but I didn't realize it was that bad.
I hope ya'll win it all!
January 24th, 2024 at 9:38 PM ^
Thanks XM for the Harbaugh reprieve. For the masses out there, if your girlfriend makes outrageous demands to you in sparing conversations over the course of three weeks and is going out on dates with other guys in a public way, let it go and move along.
As for the Lions, they have a shot to keep it close, especially if Purdy is forced to make plays under pressure. He himself is not the playmaker but merely a fine catalyst allowing the skill players to take over, which they usually do. Outside of a throw away game against the Ravens on the road, the Lions have been able to score points on just about everyone, although they’ve been inconsistent at times.
The biggest question in my mind is can the Lions defense hold SF to Moody FGs or does CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle, and maybe Deebo make house calls? You can win in the playoffs with bend-but-don’t-break defenses but you have to be consistent not to break. That said, unfortunately I think they finally break and have to play catch up most of the game. I see a 34-24 type of game with SF to cover the spread late in the 4th Q to ice the game. Hope I’m wrong!
January 24th, 2024 at 9:55 PM ^
Am flying from NY to go to the game.
January 24th, 2024 at 10:05 PM ^
See you there
January 25th, 2024 at 1:32 PM ^
Lads, what section numbers? We are tailgating in blue lot 1 beforehand if you're looking for free shots and Michigan-friendly company. I'll be the guy with the turnover buffs, Lions flag, and a big bottle of Jameson.*
(*apparently, they don't sell big bottles of Jahmyr or Amon-Ra)
January 25th, 2024 at 2:28 PM ^
will there be a sign re: great cornholio?
going with brother, a 49er ticket holder. no idea what the itinerary is for sunday, but if we get to blue lot 1, i'll start yelling, 'oh great cornholio, where art thou?!'.
no matter what, appreciate the invite. and forward down the field, go lions!
January 24th, 2024 at 10:44 PM ^
Regarding the money line question, there's a fairly big difference between 6.5 & 7.
My playoff model had plays against the Lions in each of the first two rounds. It leans to Frisco too, though by a noticeably smaller margin.
January 24th, 2024 at 10:52 PM ^
is there some difference in meaning or significance though with the larger money line 280/220 vs. 340/280? does it indicate that one outcome or the other is more certain?
January 25th, 2024 at 1:06 AM ^
The difference between being favored by 6.5 and 7 is a lot larger than the difference between 5 & 5.5. Because 7 is a key number. So the price you have to pay to back the 7 point fave is a lot steeper than 6.5.
January 25th, 2024 at 1:26 AM ^
In terms of the math it means the market is about 3.59% more confident the Niners will win vs the numbers behind the Lions winning vs the Bucs.
AI is your buddy...
ChatGPT 4
You
Against the Bucs we were 6.5 pt favorites and the money line was something like +220/-280. For the 49ers who are 7 pt favorites, the money line is +280/-340. Does that mean that Vegas is more certain of the win by the 49ers than they were for the Lions beating Tampa Bay?
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
Yes, in sports betting, the money line reflects the odds of a team winning a game outright, without taking the point spread into account. In your example, the Detroit Lions were 6.5-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a money line of +220/-280, whereas the San Francisco 49ers are 7-point favorites with a money line of +280/-340.
The larger negative number (-340 for the 49ers vs. -280 for the Lions) indicates that the bookmakers see the 49ers as more likely to win than the Lions were in their game. The reason is that you would have to bet more money to win the same amount on the 49ers, showing a higher confidence in their victory. Conversely, the +280 for the underdog against the 49ers implies a lower probability of an upset compared to the +220 in the Lions' game.
You
Can you quantify the difference in implied probability
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
The implied probabilities for each team winning their respective games are as follows:
- Detroit Lions: 73.68%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31.25%
- San Francisco 49ers: 77.27%
- 49ers' Opponent: 26.32%
These probabilities indicate that the bookmakers were more confident in the 49ers winning their game (77.27%) than in the Lions winning theirs (73.68%). Similarly, the probability of the 49ers' opponent winning is lower (26.32%) compared to that of the Buccaneers (31.25%). This difference quantifies the greater certainty of a 49ers victory in the eyes of the bookmakers.
You
So they are about 4 percent more confident? Can you state that difference in percentages
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
Yes, the bookmakers are approximately 3.59% more confident in the San Francisco 49ers winning their game compared to the Detroit Lions in their respective matchups.
You
Can you show the work in a format I can post on a football blog, these guys are pretty smart.
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
Certainly! Here's a formatted explanation suitable for a football blog:
Analyzing Betting Odds: Lions vs. Bucs and 49ers' Matchup
When comparing the implied probabilities of two different NFL games based on money line betting odds, we can gauge how confident bookmakers are about the outcomes. Let's break down the numbers for clarity:
Game 1: Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Lions Money Line: -280
- Buccaneers Money Line: +220
Game 2: San Francisco 49ers vs. Their Opponent
- 49ers Money Line: -340
- Opponent's Money Line: +280
Calculating Implied Probabilities
The implied probability can be calculated from the money line odds using the following formulas:
- For negative money lines:
Implied Probability = -Money Line / (-Money Line + 100) - For positive money lines:
Implied Probability = 100 / (Money Line + 100)
Applied Calculations:
Lions vs. Bucs:
- Implied Probability of Lions Winning =
-280 / (-280 + 100) = 73.68% - Implied Probability of Buccaneers Winning =
100 / (220 + 100) = 31.25%
49ers Game:
- Implied Probability of 49ers Winning =
-340 / (-340 + 100) = 77.27% - Implied Probability of 49ers' Opponent Winning =
100 / (280 + 100) = 26.32%
Comparative Analysis:
- The 49ers are given a 77.27% chance of winning, higher than the Lions at 73.68%.
- This indicates that bookmakers are 3.59% more confident in a 49ers victory compared to a Lions victory in their respective games.
January 25th, 2024 at 1:35 AM ^
Note I didn't say smart...just pretty smart.
January 25th, 2024 at 6:27 AM ^
thank you for the analysis. i think i see it clearly now. i do hesitate to trust the ChatGP though as any final source. in my business it can write you fine looking paragraphs with citations, but the citations are completely made up and/or wrong.
January 25th, 2024 at 8:51 AM ^
I could talk about this all day, but...
AI shouldn't be trusted even when it should often be used. I use many AIs primarily based on their training sets and relative setups. Most commonly, they check each other. We have a GPT3 at work that is secured for business confidentiality as well (or you risk sharing your company secrets with an underpaid data/algorithm checker/programmer in Sam Alton's basement otherwise... if not a foreign server (note Chat GPT doesn't have that risk if it is a risk at all.)
This came out in an MGoThread not too long ago about the US News and World Report ratings of Academic whateverness vs. the CFP teams this year. The poster conjectured that this year was the nerdiest CFP playoff ever. I input that into a couple of different AI chatbots and got a pretty silly result but a reasonably good analysis. Even a lousy answer can expose a ridiculous question.
Your question is reasonable, but using the odds to express implied probability makes others think in Vegas terms, where house money always wins. We probably shouldn’t ramify the betting mentality at all. All posters love Michigan; some like to gamble, but few if any should gamble. Posting odds encourages people to think like Vegas and bet when they shouldn't. It would be less biased to convert these to probability instead of betting money. AIs do this on your phone (example above).
I usually credit an AI when I use it, but there are fewer and fewer situations where I don't. The same was said for Wikipedia and the internet (and letters back in the day.) I wouldn't say I like that when I sit down for a meal in Houston with my SEC buds; I can't unhook them from their phones to have a decent NIL discussion. Another but coming... I do learn a ton from them every time. As I do from you XM (if only the importance of goat vaginas.)
This blog has become a nightmare since Michigan won the championship. Thanks for keeping it real. Hopefully we can focus on hoops enough to understand the issues and get that boat bailed and back on course. Hockey also is under performing. If it wasn’t for posts like yours and Steve’s opine on college hockey… it might be time for a MGoBreak.
See you in Vegas XM. Go Lions!
January 24th, 2024 at 11:36 PM ^
I am surprised at the line. I have watched the Niners all year. They have dominated when healthy and Purdy is playing well. They are a little banged up with Deebo likely out or limited. Both rush defenses are solid. You could argue CMC is a bigger threat but neither run game will carry the day. So Purdy is the key. He was hot at the beginning of the season, then struggled when teams made him throw down field starting with the Browns game. Purdy has improved since the midseason but remains inconsistent. He was on the money the last drive against the Packers. He came out cold, however, and misfired a lot of the night. The Lions should be able to pressure him. I think Goff will have some chances. I see the Lions winning a close one, 24-21
January 25th, 2024 at 1:42 AM ^
Thank you XM for a football post instead of a CC cry fest. Yes the Lions will get it done. The best part is we get to see Hutch or Bosa no matter who has the ball. This game has quite the edge. Go Lions!