Michigan now only state in fifty to see 50% decrease in COVID-19
Wasn't there a change in the way they reported a week or so ago that brought in a large amount of older maybeish type cases. Perhaps this large drop is from that.
This change added more than 5,000 cases and more than 200 deaths that happened over two months to one weekend of the state's reporting on the COVID-19 outbreak.
Yes, that is EXACTLY what is going on.
Not that Michigan's numbers aren't down in the past week - they are. But once that outlier of a day is not considered (and it shouldn't be, it's an extreme outlier), Michigan is not down 50%+ week-over-week.
It's kind of pathetic that nobody at a major news network knows to do that basic piece of data analysis. But that's where we are.
I could go off on a more extended rant here about the decreasing levels of sophistication that I am seeing among professional data scientists (the hot career for 5 years now), but I'll stop at this.
Amen brother. It't appears 90% of reporters (newspapers, TV, Internet) do not understand simple math. My favorite is when a budget item increase of 5% compared to last years 10% is a reduction in spending. No folks, it's a reduction the rate of growth. Blank stare...
Simple test to see if a supposedly intelligent reporter understands the math they are quoting: Explain compound interest. Amazing how many college educated people can not do it.
Your asking Journalism majors to understand what they report. That’s a hot one. Yet ... the CNN/MSNBC/FOX momos spew garbage like it is fact. Let AI right the new, it can only get better.
Eh, if they started fudging the numbers based on reporting methodology they'd have to start rearranging for a lot of states and then you introduce subjectivity since you don't really know where to allocate those numbers. At that point, they're making the news and not reporting it.
Arguably better to do this transparent, verifiable method and mention the caveats in the footnotes than subjectively change the reported numbers.
Yeah, in this case I can't really fault the national media, they're not going to know all these little data changes. But the state should have better explained why our confirmed cases suddenly went up 5,000 in one day. Last week all the tracking sites clearly didn't get that message and were saying that we were "spiking".
That's a fair response. As you said, perhaps an asterisk and footnote would work best.
I didn't see it at the time, but I suppose that 1-2 weeks ago that CNN chart would have showed Michigan having the largest week-over-week increase in cases amongst the 50 states.
Then, someone Tweets that chart, and if it's the right person with the right followers, an incorrect narrative becomes a runaway locomotive (cases are exploding in Michigan! Michigan needs to lockdown again!).
That I suppose is a commentary on social media, how narratives can become runaway locomotives.
I’m setting the over/under at 6 minutes before this get removed again.
Big Gretch haters can suck it.
Well, that isn’t very nice. But yes, the haters silence speaks volumes as we watch the Southern states’ R values go way over R1.
Cases and hospitalizations in Arizona, Texas, and Florida are going way up.
Their governors are doing nothing to stop it and are instead making things worse.
They must think if the DOW hits 30k the virus will magically disappear.
And making it worse not just for the citizens of their states....
The company I am working for currently has 200-300 people per week flying from Texas to Michigan. The guy I sat next to on the plane was all over Michigan but was from Arizona.
80% of people exposed get it inside their home. The weather in Texas is 100. Everyone is inside. I think what is happening is the opposite of what people thought. Warm weather is good, hot weather is bad.
People dont want the truth.
A spike in cases due to reopening is almost certainly inevitable, no matter how long we stayed closed down. We just haven't hit that yet
So far, the pattern for this virus has been that every place that had a bad outbreak - Wuhan, Lombardy, Madrid, NYC, Detroit - hasn't had a repeat. Whether this is due to herd immunity or something else, I don't know, but it may not be inevitable, at least not in the summer.
There is absolutely nothing that supports herd immunity. Even if you multiplied the number of cases by a factor of 20, you'd still not be remotely close to having herd immunity. Michigan has about 10 million people and 65,000 have been confirmed as having CV19. 20 times that number only gives you about 1.3 million which is 13 percent of the state. Most experts I've heard talk about herd immunity suggest something in the range of 80-90 percent. If you have a link showing serologic testing suggesting higher numbers, I'd like to read it.
That is why a second wave seems so potentially daunting. Only a very small part of the US has been infected and now, in summer when we are all outside, in states that have loosened things up, the numbers are spiking.
There is absolutely nothing that supports herd immunity
Except (again) the fact that no place that has had a severe outbreak has seen any kind of resurgence.
There's a lot we don't know about this virus still, but in all the places I mentioned, it followed the classic outbreak pattern of sudden rise and sharp decline. Detroit's decline has been so sharp - and sustained! - that it's hard to explain otherwise. Detroit never flattened the curve at all, it went up and then down.
China going back up. (Beijing).
It’s not hard to explain the decline at all. everyone in SE MI knows people who have had Covid and most know some who died. People in hot spots take it more seriously, stay in more, wear masks, etc.
I don’t know if we can fully explain what’s going on. There unquestionably are more people out and about now than a month ago, but we’re down to a 1% positivity rate.
We shut down fairly early, and comprehensively, mandated mask wearing in indoor spaces, and stayed closed longer than most everywhere else. We crushed that fucking curve.
Now watch cases start to go back up, since 1/3 of people will immediately start behaving like it was eradicated.
I do think some of it is just mask usage and general social distancing. In MA we've seen a pretty steady decline because the vast majority of people wear masks inside and at least put some space between themselves. It's not as strict as it was a couple months ago, and we'll see how it holds up if/when more people start heading into the city via mass transit, but it does feel like people in areas that were hit hard are simply being more consistent in their approach.
Correct. MI will take off once it reopens. Then it’s a chicken game with the Gov. How long does she wait till imposing restrictions to contain.
We are not shutting down against. That would be regional/national economic suicide.
Diverting a little from thread title.
can anyone smarter than me explain why models are predicting a second wave in September?
is it all just from schools reopening? because no other facet of society is going back to “normal” in 2 months.
is it the weather? Because September is basically summer weather, and warm weather doesn’t seem particularly protective
They're assuming the same seasonal effects - how flu spreads by season will be how CoronaVirus spreads.
That may or may not be true, of course. CV hasn't even been around a year, so we don't really know its seasonality.
Also, part of why we have a new flu season each year is that the virus rapidly mutates into new strains that we aren't fully protected from. SARS-CoV-2 seems to mutate more slowly, which could be a good thing for those who have had it.
Very good point. And that's a positive as regards CoronaVirus which is under-appreciated.
But what about the group that wanted to storm buildings with semiautomatic weapons to "protest?:
But what about the people who told me it was a hoax.
But what about the people threatening your governor for being aggressive in her preventative measures?
I don't care about exact numbers or percentages, fact is, no matter which way you cut it...this is a GOOD thing.
I thought Whitmer was being heavy handed. I was very vocal about it. But if the numbers in Michigan stay where there are with no legit second wave I will be first in line to gladly eat crow.
She was heavy handed and well beyond her authority. We still live I. A constitutional republic and constraints on government power exist for a very good reason. The framers absolutely wanted to shut down arbitrary government power which Whitmer clearly exercised. Want to live in an authoritarian police state? Sunny North Korea welcomes you. This isn’t supposed to happen in America. Let’s also talk about the way the statistics were a joke on top of all of this.
Maybe we should have waited for Congress to pass an amendment to the constitution before taking drastic action to stop this then-unforeseen pandemic that took place 250 years later.
Yeah, Whitmer's actions are exactly like those of North Korea. Exactly. Great analogy!
Personally, I'm relieved I'll be able to see my 80 year old parents again the next time I visit Michigan. And nobody had to be forced at gunpoint to hold off on stocking up on gardening supplies.
Hmmmm. Maybe our “fascist bitch” of a Governor actually did the right thing?
The statistical methodology on this stuff is all over the map so none of the original numbers and none of the original projections can be trusted at all. Everything beyond reason has been counted as a COVID death and there have been many problems beyond this. The government is not to be trusted and all of the blunders will be apparent to the masses at some point if they aren’t already apparent. This whole thing has been one massive fraud and a joke.
A massive fraud? So 100,000+ people haven't died from the virus?
Death toll.