Michigan Defense 2009
my biggest concern for the defense next yr, despite the major expected losses at Dline, is the linebacking core. If weve learned anything from the last two weeks its that a great Dline can be neutralized by a mobile QB and intelligent playcalling (quick short passes). I think our losses at Dline will be less of an issue than it is generally considered, even if graham leaves. Jamison, Johnson, and Taylor have all underperformed compared to expectation. In my opinion, Mike Martin is a step up on the interior line. Jamison was far less effective than his potential suggested. He, taylor, and johnson have all been nonfactors over the past few games.
We can expect, based on the current depth chart that Van Bergen will likely start at one side of the Dline. Sagesse will takeover for one of the lost DTs along with Mike Martin. It will be interesting to see wut happens with the other DE. Either one of the recruits (Lalota or Roh) or Banks. Roh likely will redshirt due to his size, so well see wut happens there.
Based on recent talk, were expected to land 1-3 additional Olinemen (Chris Freeman, Travis Bonds, Quinton Washington). These are all relatively good recruits, which leads me to believe that if Will Campbell does recommit, as he is expected to, he will be a DT, where he likely will see some early action behind Sagesse, if he doesnt start right away.
As I said, my defensive worries are at linebacker. All three have played extremely poorly both in run support, and in pass coverage. Even Mouton was a converted safety, initially recognized for his pass coverage abilities, has been exposed in the pass game. The OLB's have been unable to shut down the sideline and screen passes. Obi Ezeh, who showed great potential last yr, seems to have regressed.
This being said, we dont have any terrific LB prospects or recruits, giving me very little reason to believe that our defense will improve in the coming yrs. Fitzgerald was the lone four star linebacking recruit in the 2008 class, followed by none in the 2009 class (unless Jelani Jenkins answers the michigan prayers and decides to commit.) Meanwhile, Fitzgerald has only seen action this yr on special teams, which was a fantastic way to burn a potential redshirt yr (very Lloyd Carr-esk). Hopefully he will develope, but that still leaves us relatvely low expectation for the future. Kenny Demens was a bleh recruit. Certainly not enough to turn around the recent struggles.
It is rather painful to compare the current linebacking core to that of the 2006 team (Burgess, David Harris, Crable), who were all NFL draft picks.
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:54 AM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 2:19 AM ^
I am certainly not a fan of Charles Stewart. I think losing Harrison will hurt b/c he has been our most consistent safety. Actually Stevie Brown has played much better lately, and I expect him to get a lot of time next yr. Brandon Smith and Mike Williams likely both get considerable time next yr as well. Its hard to say how good smith will be; he was very highly recruited, but you can never be sure until he hits the field.
Id be shocked if Ezeh makes the move to the outside. Hes currently the captain of the defense, and will be the most experienced player on the defense come next yr. Fitzgerald will probably be fighting for a starting spot with Mouton and Thompson.
Seeing the secondary next yr should be interesting. In my opinion, Morgan Trent is not nearly as good as many people have declared him. Im not sure if im the only one who noticed, but he allows a TON of receptions. He gives a huge cushion to his assignment, as to prevent the deep ball, giving his man an easy 10-12 yard reception. This is interesting considering he is the fastest player on the roster. Based on the way he plays, i think hes more fit for safety because hes not terrific in close coverage and hes developed into one of the more sure tacklers in the secondary, which doesnt say a lot. I think hell fail miserably in the NFL, assuming he is signed to a roster.
Cissoko will likely step up to play the open spot. I really liked what I saw from him as a recruit and over the past few weeks. Hes shown good coverage skills in the limited action hes seen. But Im afraid his potential will be extremely limited by his size, which may even make him a liability at times. Hes got an obvious disadvantage in jump balls. Expect a lot of teams to work fade routes from the red-zone against Cissoko. Hell also have a lot of trouble against bigger recievers, in general, who can get around the press coverage, which he seems to prefer. I also watched him get thrown to the ground by an Illinois' wide out, while he was attempting to play press coverage. Luckily the ball was thrown to the otherside of the field on that particular play. Hes actually pretty well built at 5'8 190, but the height is a serious leverage issue. Hes also not a great tackler, much like Warren, making them both liabilities in rush coverage. However, Boubacar is pretty new to football so hopefully some experience will help him sure-up his tackling abilities.
Justin Turner is a highly touted recruit as well. Im curious to see how he fits into the plan for next yr.
October 22nd, 2008 at 2:22 AM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 6:16 AM ^
Why do none of you know what you're talking about?
- Fitzgerald wasn't the only 4-star LB from 2008. We got four of them in Hill, Witherspoon, Fitzgerald, and Demens. Hill and Witherspoon decommitted, but we still have two left.
- Ezeh hasn't regressed. You just apparently don't remember that he wasn't very good last year.
- Fitzgerald won't fight Thompson for playing time next year because Thompson is a 5th year senior.
October 22nd, 2008 at 7:48 AM ^
Ezeh and Mouton with another year of experience and anyone of the young LB's will be an upgrade from Thompson.
October 22nd, 2008 at 5:06 PM ^
Agreed!
Obi will be starting his, what, 25th game for the season opener next year?
Mouton is getting great experience and arguably had the best game of his carreer at PSU.
Plus, they will all have had a significant amount of time working with the coaches and learning the 'system' by the time next season starts.
October 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 AM ^
Your right in that I mispoke when I said Fitzgerald was the only 4 star LB recruit, but he is the only one left. Demens was a 3/4 star recruit depending on which site you give more weight to. Rivals has him as a 4 star and the 23 ranked OLB. Scouts has him as a 3 star and the 23 ranked weakside LB. I tend to give more weight to rivals, so ill give you that one. But im not entirely optimistic of the chances that either demens or fitzgerald develops into a harris, burgess, or crable.
And the fact that Thompson is a 5th yr senior wont mean a thing. Note that carlos brown and carson butler, both projected starters, and upperclassmen, lost there spots to true freshman. If Thompson doesnt prove himself, Rich Rod will start an underclassman. I think he is just as much on the block as mouton. If anything you might say that Thompson is more likely to get the boot because he has had more time to reach his potential, yet both he and mouton, a current sophomore and first year starter, are comparably bad.
Interesting you say that the expectation for Ezeh wasnt high and that he didnt regress. Consider the fact that he was named the captain of the defense. Obviously somone on the coaching staff thought pretty highly of him.
October 22nd, 2008 at 8:54 AM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:06 AM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 5:04 PM ^
I think Ian Gold has a shot at starting OLB
October 22nd, 2008 at 7:52 PM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:55 PM ^
I didn't say "expectations weren't high for Ezeh." I said he hasn't regressed. High expectations and regression are two completely different topics. Ezeh was subpar last year, and so far he's been named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week at least once (maybe twice) this year.
Also, as Obes pointed out...2008 is the final year of Thompson's college career. I can absolutely guarantee you that someone will take his starting job, because he won't be playing football. Jeez, you're dense.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:06 AM ^
My biggest concern is the 3 man rush (as opposed to the 3-4 defense that rushes at least 4). Which, for some inexplicable reason, M keeps using and using and using.
I absolutely hate this at any level of football.
You basically give the QB forever to find an open receiver and, in return, only 1 more defensive guy in coverage.
Google "3 man rush" for a plethora of examples of how this has lost games several times already this year.
There is NEVER EVER EVER anytime, anyone should use this defensive approach!
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:31 PM ^
Especially when the 3 men rushing look llike they figure they'll be double teamed and don't have a chance to get to QB, so they don't work too hard. ( I'm speaking generally, not calling anyone out )
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:34 PM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 3:29 PM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:44 PM ^
All I know is that I have have been yelling myself horse at all the games because of so many 3 man rushes!!
(Because I hate it, I ALWAYS yell "Goddamit Quit Using the 3 Man Rush!!!")
Ask all the folks in Section 4 (I have a really loud voice!!)
Not sure if UFR provides some insight. I'll take a look.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:53 PM ^
Checked the UFR for the TU game. As far as I can see, there is no way to tell when there is a 3 man rush or not.
Brain does list the alignment, but unless he specifically states "3 man rush" I have no clue how many are actually rushing.
Statistics really suck here!
BTW, Brian has provided the abysmal performance of the 3 man line against runs.
What is the THEORY of the 3 man rush???
I just don't get it???
Looks like another "prevent" (i.e. prevents you from winning) to me.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:31 AM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:16 AM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:13 PM ^
I actually think Warren is a better tackler than Trent. Look back to the PSU games and the times when Trent had to make a tackle in the open field - he looks awkward and maybe a bit terrified. Stewart and Trent are the two worst tacklers on the defense, which is saying something on this unit. Brown is right behind them. Warren has made great strides in his tackling, if you ask me.
As for the safeties next year, I shudder to think how awful Mike Williams might be if Charles Stewart is beating him to the field. I don't care that Williams is a redshirt freshman - he can't read plays any worse that Stewart, I wouldn't think. Charles Stewart is like Stevie Brown without the speed. Maybe a freshman will step up at FS, or someone like JT Floyd.
Oh, and Graham is supposed to be back next year, which might make the DE battle less "interesting." For future reference, you should probably look more carefully at who's actually returning before you preview a future year.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:26 PM ^
"Oh, and Graham is supposed to be back next year, which might make the DE battle less "interesting." For future reference, you should probably look more carefully at who's actually returning before you preview a future year. "
Key phrasing here: You say "Graham is SUPPOSED...which MIGHT..." Then, THEN, you criticize him by saying "You should PROBABLY look...who's ACTUALLY returning before you PREVIEW a FUTURE year."
Care to explain why he can't have an opinion on the unpredictable future but you can ridicule him for his assumptions in the same paragraph where you make the leap from "supposed to be back" to "actually returning"?
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:37 PM ^
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:40 PM ^
OMG, does Trent have 2 broken arms!!
He never wraps up -- always tries to "block" down the runner/receiver rather than tackle.
I can't ever recall Trent using his arms to tackle except when catching someone from behind.
And, yes, I do blame coaching -- who else should correct this?????
October 22nd, 2008 at 2:46 PM ^
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:55 AM ^
Even though graham hasnt expressed his plans publicly, I doubt hell be back for several reasons:
1. Hes putting up very strong numbers this year and is a shoe in to get drafted.
2. With losses at the Dline next yr, he is going to see a lot more double teams.
3. With the team struggling, the risk of injury likely outweighs the potential for winning a big ten title.
4. Hes not in a Henne/Hart/Long type situation where all make a group decision to stick around for a final year.
He was sited as mentioning something along the lines of: Jamison has had more time to learn schemes and therefore is more nfl ready. But i think the only thing that could really keep graham from advancing would be a desire to work with barwis for another yr. His gains in strength and speed over the past 9 months have been staggering considering he was already a second semester sophomore by the time barwis stepped in.