Michigan currently with a projected 0.8% chance of winning the Big Ten

Submitted by Prince_of_Nachos on October 6th, 2019 at 1:32 PM

According to ESPN's FPI, Michigan's current projected record is a little south of 8-4, with less than a 1% chance of winning the division. 

M also has third hardest remaining strength of schedule, after LSU and Florida, which certainly doesn't help. But for those (myself included) that are tempted to cling to the narrative that the improved defense can just save the rest of the season, it looks unlikely.

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SugarShane

October 6th, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^

Isn't this the same algorithm that gave us a 60 something percent chance to win the conference in the offseason?

 

meh

Joined: 10/19/2011

MGoPoints: 6949

Valiant

October 6th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^

Good lord man. When will it stop? So Harbaugh, a Pro Bowl quarterback who played 14 years in the NFL, and has had success at every coaching stop he's made, including Michigan, knows absolutey nothing about offense? But you and half of the other Internet gurus here and elsewhere would have this shit corrected in no time.

Things are clearly not going as well as any of us would like, but the incessant hot takes by clueless Internet know-it-alls are making this board impossible to read.

Joined: 02/05/2015

MGoPoints: 671

SagNasty

October 6th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^

YES! 
I used to love this board and now it’s pretty much trash.

Let’s wait and see what happens. season is far from lost. Let’s see how the team comes out against Illinois and how penn state matches up with iowa. If Michigan can win at psu the rest of the tough games are at home. 

Joined: 06/22/2011

MGoPoints: 932

Sandy Lyles Revenge

October 6th, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^

How many conference championships has Michigan won in the last 25 years?

we are who we are. We were in a huge hole, and have a fine coach who brought us to a respectable level year one. The idea that umich would just compete for natty’s because Harbaugh is in town, just shows you how limited your football knowledge is.  As well as how dishonest you have been with yourself during your appraisal of Michigan football. don’t you let you overinflation of Michigan as a football program cloud your judgement of Jim as a coach. 

Lastly, Shea is from Toledo. You can’t ask someone from Toledo to lead man. 

Joined: 02/20/2019

MGoPoints: 1620

wolve1972

October 6th, 2019 at 5:19 PM ^

Yep, $8 million and childish spats and comments with other CF coaches and officials.....you better back it up. As bad as I hate Urban Meyer, there was no need for Harbaugh to once again make a stupid comment (again) about Urban and his controversy everywhere he goes earlier this year. It made him look jealous of a man that waxed his ass for 4 straight years. And all I can say is time to produce for that $8 million  UM is paying you. Oh, and try thinking for once before speaking.  Gonna be interesting if he loses to 1st year head coach Ryan Day later in the year. 

Joined: 12/07/2018

MGoPoints: 6789

bluinohio

October 6th, 2019 at 6:49 PM ^

And yet...here you are,  reading and commenting. You keep hanging on to Harbaugh's past and how great he used to be.  The rest of us are in the present and see the shitshow that's currently happening. Maybe it only takes putting in a backup to make a difference, but we'll probably never know because he can't see what we all see. The proof of that is in the press conference where he says the offense is hitting their stride, LMAO. Maybe those are blackout sunglasses he's wearing. 

Joined: 08/24/2015

MGoPoints: 10730

Valiant

October 6th, 2019 at 7:51 PM ^

Yep, sure.  He doesn't see what absolutely everyone else sees.  Thanks for making my point.

First, I'm not hanging on to anything.  I just know enough to understand that the future of this program was not decided in a game on Saturday that we actually won, and one in which we beat a pretty good team.  It wasn't pretty by a long shot, but it's the 5th game in a new system, we've been fighting a few key injuries, and sometimes things take time, despite our wishes to the contrary.  Second, the backup that you apparently wanted him to put in had a concussion this week.  Third, do you think he gives a shit what you or any of us think about his press conference comments?  Just because you want the offense to be firing on all cylinders won't make it so.  Would it make you feel better if he called it all a shitshow to the press?  Do you think that would help to improve the offense, get them to stay together, keep working hard, correct their mistakes, trust their coaches?

Joined: 02/05/2015

MGoPoints: 671

M-B Devil Dog

October 7th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^

What you are describing and subscribing to is passive attitude where you build and promote a culture of "I'm doing good enough" or "I'm doing just enough". Couple of things

- Regardless of how Shea is playing ( which I feel is sub par) I LOVED that Harbaugh in a not so subtle way called him out or that Gattis did as well. THAT is the mentality of a champion and someone who is saying, hey you aren't doing enough. 

- This whole let's stay positive and be oh so careful not to criticize the players is part of the problem. Have you heard Saban or Dabo or hell even Day speak post game? yeah they say we did great...BUT and then they lay out that they still aren't satisfied and that they see a LOT of things that need to be worked on and cleaned up. 

- I was seriously pissed off when Harbaugh brought up Urban Meyer this past summer and criticized him. He should never have that mans name in his mouth, ever. You ever beat him and by talking about him and his off field issues just made him sound petty and that guy that always says " Yeah, but..." it's called excuses. They all stink. 

- I think one of our biggest issues is our culture in that I feel like Harbaugh is babying the players. He's embraced this generations propensity for not liking being criticized. A head coach has to be a father figure, he has to love hard but at the same time there should be a healthy fear in that you don't want to disappoint him or not do what they say. 

personally I would have loved had JH got on the mic after the game and say, we are happy for the win and I feel like we still have a shot at winning the B1G but make no mistake we are still far from a perfect or even great unit. We didn't score in almost 85% of the game and that is just unacceptable. Our defense played their asses off but on the Offensive side we still have a lot of things we need to work on. we have a lot of work to do this week because as our schedule gets tougher we won't be as fortunate to be able to win a game on defense alone. 

 

JH is getting $8mm a year and like a CEO that is making a large salary and bonuses there are expectations and when those expectations are not being met or are just squeaking by then you need to feel some heat.  Right now we are 4-1 but that 4-1 is one where I feel like we are breathing a sigh of relief, not feeling like hey we had one bad game but man we are looking like we are good. 

Joined: 12/05/2018

MGoPoints: 923

The Fugitive

October 6th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^

I give them a 0.8% chance of beating Penn State on the road. I sense another 27 for 27 in that game but with no chance of scoring 40+ over the course of the game. 

Joined: 01/26/2016

MGoPoints: 77468

MGoBlue24

October 6th, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^

Please don't let that happen again.  I was at that game.  Between 27 for 27 and 20 five minute media time outs (during which the coaches apparently doubled down on their wish for 27 for 27) it was a tough evening.  Especially since all of the PSU fans around me thought they were going to lose.

Joined: 08/22/2013

MGoPoints: 12900

WolverineBoy310

October 6th, 2019 at 2:01 PM ^

I wouldn't put too much stock into the FPI. It swings a lot, for example we started with a 42% chance to win the B1G. It's all still ahead of us but there's a 0% chance if we don't start producing on offense.

Joined: 09/25/2019

MGoPoints: 115

Chadillac Grillz

October 6th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^

So 0%. There's a 0% chance we win the Big Ten. Until this offense gets a quarterback (and I'm not even sure we have one on the roster but one) other than Shea Patterson this offense is going nowhere....fast. I'm sorry to say it but there's no way to right this ship the only possibility is a risky one but I think we need to do it immediately but I don't think Jim Harbaugh will do it... And that is to switch to Joe Milton at quarterback! It's risky because he's going to make mistakes but it's the only way to get some potency going on offense. If we platoon Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton then maybe we can win more than 8 games this year but otherwise we're probably in for a boring team with an extremely flaccid offense ?

Joined: 01/04/2010

MGoPoints: 2740

Prince_of_Nachos

October 6th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^

Agreed that FPI isn't the best metric; SP+ would probably be considered more accurate. 

But from a big picture perspective, going from ~50% chance to win the division preseason, to <1% change now says a lot about the current trajectory of the team. That is a startling comedown, especially since M currently only has 1 loss. The advanced stats are saying that Michigan isn't anywhere close to competing for a conference title.

I think our only hope is that Harbaugh is attempting the MSU-style bullshit wins in Sept/Oct approach, with a suddenly superior team emerging in November. To be fair, this approach has been pretty effective in the past (just never for us).

Joined: 03/28/2016

MGoPoints: 783

DHughes5218

October 6th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^

Maybe we should switch conferences with Clemson. They haven’t played anybody yet, and they get a free pass to the playoffs. We would go undefeated against that schedule.

side note: I want the old Harbaugh back. The one opposing coaches didn’t want to piss off because they were truly concerned that he might kick their ass. Maybe I will get in his face and he will kick my ass, rip off his old man glasses, and return to the badass he was a few years ago.

Joined: 10/04/2014

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