Michigan and OSU versus common opponents - some data
I thought it might be interesting to look at how Michigan and OSU have done against the seven common Big Ten opponents this year: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, and Rutgers.
I present the compiled info for information and perusal.
November 20th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
Thanks for doing that. It may not mean a ton but it is interesting and I do think is at least a worthy data point.
November 20th, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
Interesting data. Would be interesting to see with garbage time cut out.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
Could probably run it with just the first 3 quarters. Seems like in most games JJ and starters were out after 3.
November 20th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
This is a good point. These teams do look similar on paper but OSU typically needed 4 quarters, whereas M typically chilled after 3 in most games.
Edit: I'm still expecting a close game. But I feel good about our squad. This is the best offense we've faced and the second best D we've faced. Gotta make some plays to win.
November 20th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
Not only that, but OSU also tends to pad stats in garbage time, so it would take a little work to filter out there own garbage-time self-aggrandizement from their blowouts.
November 20th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
JJ will need to find a spark without Harbaugh on the sideline. Even if the Ravens draft him, John wasn't a QB and JJ's going to self motivate a top Sunday performance on his own soon. Might as well start Saturday.
November 20th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^
We won the last 2 years because we stuffed their run. 91 and 64 rushing yards for OSU the last 2 years. We still have a strong DLine. Grant is reachng peak form at the appropriate time!!
November 20th, 2023 at 7:52 AM ^
Good shit, Jedd!
Michigan needs to play a clean game. OSU is soft but they do not suck at football.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
Seeing what CJ Stroud is doing in the NFL and knowing that UM shut him down twice is enough to keep me optimistic
November 20th, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
Shut him down is a little generous, but limited the damage he did for sure. I’m more worried about Henderson though, they didn’t have him last year.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Absolutely have to set the edge and be gap disciplined on him. His cuts are pretty deadly.
If we can force them into some 3rd and 7s or worse, we have a great chance at getting a TO out of McCord.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
Wasn't Jaxon Smith-Njigba hurt too?
McCord seems to be getting into a groove against the easy part of OSU's schedule, but I'd still say that they are less explosive than they were last year.
McCord+Harrison(Jr)+Egbuka(Jr)+Fleming(Sr)+Henderson < Stroud+Harrison(So)+Egbuka(so)+Fleming(Jr)+Trayanum/Williams
That said, all of their skill players this year were five stars except Harrison. They are a very dangerous team especially if they get some momentum.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
I’ve watched them pretty closely all year, and I think McCord has only looked better because the run game couldn’t be stopped by the last two teams. He’s not bad, but if he has to get into the second/third read or scramble the throw is almost always off. He cannot escape like Taulia can (not sure if that’s his athleticism or his ankle injury he’s had pretty much all year).
November 20th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
they are less explosive than they were last year.
Yes, the OSU offense is less explosive than last year. Still a very good offense, just not rip-off-your-face elite good.
November 20th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
To offset that I think your defense has taken a nice step forward. I don't see the massive busts happening this year that put last years game out of reach.
My guess. 28-24 final and I have no idea which team wins.
November 20th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Michigan didn't have Blake either.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
"Shut him down" might be a bit much. He threw for a ton of yards, but the D had a solid game plan to keep him from racking up TDs.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
If the D can pressure McCord, it'll be a long afternoon for them.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:01 AM ^
Encouraging. Michigan just needs to play with determination and purpose, to play their game (as the cliche has it).
I know that Vegas odds are designed to elicit bets, which is the business that houses are in. But a preliminary look at this might suggest that we should be a slightly bigger favorite at home.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:05 AM ^
Hasn't the team with more rushing yards won The Game pretty much every year this century?
Good info, presented in an aesthetically pleasing format.
If Harbaugh were on the sideline I'd feel pretty confident. But it's getting harder to dismiss the drop-off in JJ's play when he's not.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
Yes, I'd feel very confident if Harbaugh was on the sideline.
Moore has a lot on his plate being both HC and OC.
November 20th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
Also Moore is O Line coach. As HC, he doesn't have time to help the line with adjustments mid game. F OSU, F Day, and the B.S. sign stealing investigation.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
If Michigan would give me a sideline pass, I can't help with the quarterbacking at all, but I'd be willing to go down there and bang on JJ's shoulder pads to get him hyped up like Harbaugh usually does.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
MineralKing:Shea::milk-n-steak:Harbaugh
November 20th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
JJ playing hurt doesn't help much but not having Harbaugh pound JJs pads before the game must be messing with him too.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
Iirc, JJ took a hit late against Purdue that looked a lot like Speight vs Iowa.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
I forgot when they changed the run scheme, but Ryan Day went away from OZ and run exclusively weak IZ/counter OH team with some gap run scheme. Their run game has gone a lot better since then. TreVeyon Henderson has been on a tear since getting back to the field from an injury. That's an another dimension that Michigan defense has to deal with in addition to trying to cover MHJ and Egbuka.
Biggest concern for Michigan is their ability to cover their WRs. They showed a lot of crack in coverage that Maryland quite frankly didn't take advantage of it
November 20th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
I agree but wanted to add a few things.
JJ hasn't looked 100% out there, at least to me anyways. His game has been off the past couple of weeks. That worries me.
Then, what's going on with the OLine? We have had two injuries, and those injuries appear to have been playing a huge part in this offense. Very noticeable, unfortunately.
The only question I have about OSU is: How good is Kyle McCord? He didn't look good against Penn State's defense, but then again, he does have one of the best players in college football in Marvin Harrison, Jr to throw to, but McCord, himself, didn't impress me. MHj won that game for Ohio State, not McCord.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
Will Johnson is going to be a 1st round pick in '25 draft, but MHJ will still be cooking this Saturday. The key is to limit the damage elsewhere.
McCord has been up and down and is a clear downgrade from Haskins, Fields and Stroud. I think Ryan Day knows it and relied more on the run game to help him out.
Michigan OL isn't nearly as good as they were the last two seasons and the OT is a clear weakness. November hasn't been kind to them pass pro wise IMO.
Michigan would need to lean onto the run game and make sure the defense can limit the damage outside of MHJ.
November 20th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Harrison, Jr. has been covering up some of McCord's weaknesses since their time at St. Joe's Prep. I think next year will be rough for McCord when his cheat code leaves. I'd be surprised if OSU doesn't go after a QB in the portal.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
Their run game has been much better to because they have played Purdue, MSU and Minnesota
November 20th, 2023 at 8:41 AM ^
I really hate to say this but since Henderson came back (Wisconsin) they've looked a ton better running the ball. Before the Wisconsin game they were averaging 3.8 ypc on the season and since then their average has gone up to 4.3 ypc on the year. Wisconsin, Rutgers, MSU and Minnesota have been their opponents in that time.
I don't think that Henderson is as great a back as most OSU fans think he is and I can't comment on what their coaches have done to make their running game operate more smoothly, but there's no doubt that it actually is something that needs to be gameplanned for at this point in the season. Unfortunately they don't look like the same team that went for 1.9 yards per carry at home against Maryland.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
So, they’ve played one good defense since Henderson returned. Might be a confounding variable…
November 20th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
The one good run D they played PSU. Held them to 60 yards and 2.6ypc. I think our Run D is better than PSU
November 20th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
They didn’t have Henderson that game.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
The above stats are against common opponents, and Michigan's rushing numbers are barely better.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
It’s slightly distorted because the only common opponents Michigan didn’t sit their starters with a significant amount of time left were PSU and Maryland. OSU got to take their guys out against MSU, but they’ve had to keep them out there for everyone else.
November 20th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
OSU got to take their guys out against MSU, but they’ve had to keep them out there for everyone else.
"Day just cleared the benches with like 7+ minutes left in the 3rd qtr, thought Minnesota would challenge them for a little longer."
https://mgoblog.com/comment/245096450#comment-245096450
November 20th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
That’s fair, if I remember right he took Egbuka, Harrison and Henderson out earlier than McCord, so most of the offensive production was on the bench. The numbers are very close, but I think if we parsed the data further we’d see Michigan’s starters numbers with a slightly larger advantage than what is shown (granted, only slightly).
November 20th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
There isn’t a season stat against common opponents that means shit in this game. Saturday will be no different.
November 20th, 2023 at 9:44 PM ^
We knew from the end of last season CB2 would be a position of concern for us, and sure enough it is. Wallace or Sainristil/McBurrows are the options. One of them needs to work.
I don't see us giving up much yardage to IZ. Counter might be effective when we play light boxes.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:07 AM ^
Interceptions thrown is listed twice. The first time Michigan's common opponent has 10 interceptions. Second time is 8. I assume one of those didn't get updated. Hopefully in a week the real number is 14.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^
You are correct - One row didn't sum properly. I edited the original post...
Oh, wait,
Here's the correct section totals:
November 20th, 2023 at 8:10 AM ^
How did you adjust for stolen signs against three M opponents? /s
November 20th, 2023 at 8:29 AM ^
Good question! You know, according to other coaches in the league that dislike Harbaugh, they make up about 20-25 points!
/s
November 20th, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
Just beat me to it!
OTOH, wait a minute now, I think the high end was 31.683287 points per game advantage to Michigan, per the sources and the coaches. I was wrong below.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
According to our opponents, that is worth exactly one point more than the margin by which we beat them. The B1G has turned into such a bunch of whiners. It is really sad to see.
November 20th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
Yeah, and some coaches said Michigan's stolen signs are worth, probably, 10.4824 to 21.219745 points per game. This math obviously needs to be factored into the point differentials.
/s obv
November 20th, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^
I get the sarcasm, but wanted to make a sign-stealing point here that I haven't heard made yet.
Everyone who has their panties in a bunch over the VERY SERIOUS SIGN STEALING has said that it gives Michigan an unprecedented advantage. But (as we all know) sign stealing is perfectly legal and most teams in the league do it.
Before the NCAA (or the Big 10) doles out punishment, they really need to investigate how many of Michigan's signs our opponents have stolen. That's the only way that you could determine how much of an advantage Michigan's advance scouting practices actually provided them. My guess is that Stalions' advance scouting *may* have helped him decipher a higher amount of opponents' signs, but it doesn't translate into as great of an advantage if our opponents have also deciphered a significant number of our signs.
November 20th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
All of Michigan’s signs have been deciphered and shared amongst, you have to assume, every big ten team. I have Michigan’s signs, and you have them, they’re the only teams’ sings that have been published in full on the internet. There has been no competitive advantage whatsoever.