MICH-again #1 in B1G (acc to sagarin poll predictions)
Michigan again is the top team in the B1G according to the Sagarin poll PREDICTOR ratings--which are the best in actually predicting game outcomes. Here are the ratings and overall national rank:
1. Michigan (#23 overall, rating 82.42)
2. Ohio (#24 overall, rating 82.40) INELIGIBLE for postseason
3. Neb (#25, rating 82.01)
4. PSU (#28, 79.44) INELIGIBLE for postseason
5. Wisconsin (#32, rating 78.73)
6. NU (#39. 77.2)
UNRANKED IN TOP 39 ( MSU, IL, IND, IA and MIN).
So, what are the chances UM will get to the championship game in INDY? Based on the Sagarin ratings (and a few heroic assumptions given below), NEB has a better than 50-50 chance of losing at least one more game. The chances of UM actually getting to INDY are about one in five.
UM’s chances are not higher than this largely because we play at Ohio. But, if Ohio were not ineligible and Michigan played them in INDY, UM would be a narrow favorite. Likewise, on a neutral field, UM would be favored over NEB (-0.5 points).
In any case, if we get a bit lucky and do get to INDY, we would be nearly a 2-1 favorite over WISC (or -3.5 points which translates into a greater than 60% chance of winning).
*******
*CALCULATIONS
One predicts the outcome of future games by subtracting the two Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (with +3 for home field advantage) That gives us the estimated point spread for each matchup. We can convert the point spreads into odds based on a conversion chart (see bovada). Then, we can convert the odds (O) into win probabilities (p) as p=O/(1+O). For example,
PtSprdOdds win prob
-2 1.2 0.54
-3 1.45 0.59
-4 1.85 0.65
5 2.15 0.68
-6 2.4 0.71
-7 2.9 0.74
-8 3.2 0.76
-9 3.35 0.77
-10 3.875 0.79
SO FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON
NEB would be a
-5.5 favorite vs PSU (win probability of .68)
- 14.5 vs MIN which has a 67.75 rating (win probability of .9)
-8.5 at IA which has a 70.71 rating (win probability of .76).
Assuming independence of game outcomes (discussed below), the chances of NEB winning out would be
= .68*.9*.76 = .46. The chance of not winning out would be 1-.46 =.54.
In Ann Arbor, UM would be
-8 pts vs NU (5+3 for home field, equivalent to a win probability of .76),
-15 Pts vs IA (or win probability of about .90)
In Columbus, UM would be not quite +3 underdogs (equivalent to a win probability of .4).
So, the chances of UM winning out would be = .76*.9*.4 = .27.
SUMMARY/DISCUSSION
Thus, the chances of UM winning out and NEB not would be = .54*.27 = .15. I would guess that the chances might be as high as 0.20, since other outcomes could also lead to UM winning one more game than NEB (eg one loss by UM and two by NEB or two losses by UM and three for NEB),
One factor that might increase UM’s chances a bit further is that game outcomes are not likely to be independent but positively correlated (due to injuries and other factors that would make runs of wins or losses more likely). Since UM’s chances of winning all games will depend more heavily on Denard’s injury situation, the chances of a run of wins (with a healthy Denard) would seem to increase the chances of UM winning out over NEB’s chances (for which game outcomes would be more nearly independent).
On the other hand, if Denard is not healthy the chances of UM winning out would be lower than the Sagarin ratings predict. But given the usual course of recovery from his condition and the encouraging performance of DG, I think that 20% is still a reasonable estimate for UM’s chances of getting to INDY.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm
November 4th, 2012 at 12:05 PM ^
Damn ulnar nerve.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:13 PM ^
Damn WR depth.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:32 PM ^
Damn all the things that are not.
November 4th, 2012 at 3:22 PM ^
. . .
November 4th, 2012 at 12:32 PM ^
November 4th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^
That's not your gut—that's your Blind Optimism Gland. The only way Nebraska loses to Iowa is Taylor Martinez injuring his ulnar nerve, or sustaining some other boo-boo.
November 4th, 2012 at 1:20 PM ^
November 4th, 2012 at 2:31 PM ^
I don't think it's likely (PSU is better bet to beat the Huskers), but Ferentz does have a knack for pulling the occasional stunning upset, especially at home.
November 4th, 2012 at 7:51 PM ^
but in fairness, Indiana is a MUCH improved team. They've been in just about every game to the end.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:56 PM ^
I think this week vs Penn State may be dangerous for them. Penn State has been very up and down but they're still a solid football team that has played pretty well on the road so far. Nebraska may be a little sluggish after the squeaker yesterday and have a game like they did vs Northwestern last year.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:56 PM ^
Usually you'll want to drive the stake through the head of the zombie
/Walking Dead'd
November 4th, 2012 at 12:34 PM ^
November 4th, 2012 at 12:37 PM ^
Yet somehow Nebraska looks like they're ranked above Michigan in Sagarin. Am I just an idiot, or is there an inconsistancy somewhere?
November 4th, 2012 at 12:43 PM ^
The Predictor ratings are different than his BCS calculations. This is thanks to the intelligent decision to leave computers blind to margin of victory in BCS rankings.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
is the average of two Sagarin rating methods: PREDICTOR and ELO-CHESS.
I use only Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings, since his ELO-CHESS ratings do not consider point margins and are not as good in predicting actual game outcomes. Regrettably, the overall BCS computer rankings use the ELO-CHESS Sagarin ratings--as well as other computer polls that often overweigh WL records and underweigh SOS. So, we will not do as well when the BCS computer rankings come out. Probably NEB will be ahead of us.
However, I do not believe that any of these alternative ranks has been shown to do as well as the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings in forecasting actual game outcomes. And that's what's important in predicting the rest of the UM season.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:38 PM ^
But I still believe that we are the best team in the Big Ten.
However, our chances are slim and none at this point, with PSU probably the last team that has a realistic shot at dealing the Huskers a loss.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:49 PM ^
Well the Iowa game is a rivalry game and it is at Iowa so I some hope that they can lose that game. I think PSU has a decent chance to get the W next weekend.
November 4th, 2012 at 1:23 PM ^
November 4th, 2012 at 3:36 PM ^
November 4th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
The mean PREDICTOR rating for the Big Ten would be 74.69, which would be good for 51st on the list between greats like Tennessee and Louisiana Tech if it were an actual team. That being said, it still puts the divisions into perspective a little, with four of the six teams in the Legends being above the mean rating, and only one eligible team in the Leaders.
November 4th, 2012 at 12:47 PM ^
I was told there would be no math
November 4th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^
November 4th, 2012 at 12:59 PM ^
When your two best wins are 12-10 home against MSU and 28-25 home against Air Force, you just don't have much ground to stand on
November 4th, 2012 at 1:06 PM ^
is that there are multiple biases in the human polls. They overweigh the beginning of the season.* Also, they overweigh the more visible games and insufficiently consider strength of schedule (SOS). So, the ALA and ND losses early in the season really hurt our position in the human polls. On the other hand, the fact that we played two of the top 3 teams really helped our SOS and our position in the Sagarin poll.
*For instance, we fell out of the human polls early on because we had played really tough teams. The pollsters anchor their ratings from there and it is a lot harder to move up---even though early season outcomes are far less reliable and based on a very small sample. (note that there also may be a bias toward overweighing the most recent games as well as the initial schedule, but the games in between are much less salient).
November 4th, 2012 at 1:01 PM ^
I'd say so too. And USC and Texas' victories are against no better opponents than ours and they didn't have to play Alabama at a neutral site, at Notre Dame and at Nebraska both at night.
November 4th, 2012 at 1:29 PM ^
USC's only victory against a team with a winning record was against 5-4 Washington, which had its ass handed to it by Arizona. Texas's record is a bit better, but not by much.
This is not to say that our own record is all that impressive, either. So far, it's not. We have three opportunities to burnish things—NW, OSU, and a bowl game.
November 4th, 2012 at 1:25 PM ^
Three reasons:
1. Big Ten is ass.
2. Michigan's two best wins are losses to Alabama and Notre Dame.
3. The only difference between the Big Ten and the MAC is the Big Ten has its own cable channel to show round-the-clock bad football.
November 4th, 2012 at 8:25 PM ^
this probably isn't just a question of bias in the human polls. Sagarin predictor has TTU #15 and SC #16 (and also OK State at #18 and AZ State #13 and BYU #19).
M's overall SOS isn't as good and a couple of the losses were decisive, especially the first one. The narrow win against Air Force isn't helping at all.
Massey hasn't updated yet--I'll probably post something when it does. He gives heavier weights to more recent games so M may look a little better there.
November 4th, 2012 at 7:54 PM ^
I think Nebraska will lose one more but unfortunately I don't see us beating Ohio State. I hope I'm wrong, though.